The activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves in CMIP3 global climate models

This study evaluates the convectively coupled equatorial waves in ten coupled general circulation models (GCMs) in the twentieth century experiment from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme. The antisymmetric bands in all GCMs are weaker than in observations, and the mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave seems to be a mixture of the equatorial Rossby (ER) and tropical depression-type (TD-type) waves rather than a mixture of the ER and inertiogravity waves found in observations. The simulated TD-type wave is more organized than in observations with a quasilinear wavenumber–frequency relationship. In most GCMs, the two observed activity centers of the MRG and TD-type waves over the southern Indian Ocean and the southwestern Pacific cannot be separated; only one wave activity center is found over the Maritime Continent. The observed northwestward propagation of the TD-type wave over the western North Pacific is also not well simulated in the GCMs. The simulated active season of the MRG and TD-type waves over the northern hemisphere during the boreal summer and fall is much shorter than in observations. The models from CCSR utilizing the Pan and Randall scheme with the convection suppression simulate the realistic Kelvin wave activity with the maximum activity near the equator, while the wave activities filtered for the Kelvin wave in the other GCMs are similar to the extratropical Rossby wave with the maximum activity at higher latitudes. Likewise, only these two models produce a realistic seasonal cycle of the Kelvin wave activity.     

南北涛动与南极涛动及北极涛动的相互作用

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了南北涛动（Interhemispheric Oscillation,IHO）与北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation,AO）和南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）的联系。分析表明：1）北极涛动（AO）、南极涛动（AAO）与全年各自半球中高纬度地表气压变化密切联系。其中,AO冬季强度最强,且在春季、冬季的影响范围大。而AAO对南半球中高纬的地表气压变动影响更为明显,其在夏季影响范围最大。2）南极涛动（AAO）与南北涛动（IHO）有很好的同期相关性,南极涛动可部分解释南北涛动的形成。IHO与AO存在不显著的负相关,南北半球中高纬大气运动具有相对独立性。3）南北涛动（IHO）与全球较大范围内的地面气压变化有关,而去除AAO信号后,夏季在南极地区原显著相关区显著减少,夏季AAO与IHO存在密切联系。4）南北涛动（IHO）主要与春季、秋季和冬季亚洲、欧洲北部地面气温关系密切。秋季最强,春季次之,冬季最弱。夏季IHO与全球地面气温没有较好的联系。亚欧大陆北部的热力作用可能部分地解释了南北涛动的形成。     

Cross-season relation of the South China Sea precipitation variability between winter and summer

The present study reveals cross-season connections of rainfall variability in the South China Sea (SCS) region between winter and summer. Rainfall anomalies over northern South China Sea in boreal summer tend to be preceded by the same sign rainfall anomalies over southern South China Sea in boreal winter (denoted as in-phase relation) and succeeded by opposite sign rainfall anomalies over southern South China Sea in the following winter (denoted as out-of-phase relation). Analysis shows that the in-phase relation from winter to summer occurs more often in El Niño/La Niña decaying years and the out-of-phase relation from summer to winter appears more frequently in El Niño/La Niña developing years. In the summer during the El Niño/La Niña decaying years, cold/warm and warm/cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies develop in tropical central North Pacific and the North Indian Ocean, respectively, forming an east–west contrast pattern. The in-phase relation is associated with the influence of anomalous heating/cooling over the equatorial central Pacific during the mature phase of El Niño/La Niña events that suppresses/enhances precipitation over southern South China Sea and the impact of the above east–west SST anomaly pattern that reduces/increases precipitation over northern South China Sea during the following summer. The impact of the east–west contrast SST anomaly pattern is confirmed by numerical experiments with specified SST anomalies. In the El Niño/La Niña developing years, regional air-sea interactions induce cold/warm SST anomalies in the equatorial western North Pacific. The out-of-phase relation is associated with a Rossby wave type response to anomalous heating/cooling over the equatorial central Pacific during summer and the combined effect of warm/cold SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific and cold/warm SST anomalies in the western North Pacific during the mature phase of El Niño/La Niña events.     

THE ROLE OF THE MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN STATIONARY WAVE PROPAGATION

In a general baroclinic atmosphere,when the basic state includes meridional circulation,the sta-tionary waves might not only pass through the equatorial easterlies,but also strengthen significantly.The orographic forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude might cause marked responses in thelow latitude atmosphere.This suggests that the meridional circulation plays an important role in theconnection of stationary responses in mid and low latitudes,and so does the heating forcing in theNorthern Hemisphere mid-latitude.Forced by the heating forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude,the features similar to the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation can be ob-tained.It appears that the meridional circulation plays certain role in the formation of summer mon-soon circulation.The heating anomaly forcing located at the eastern equatorial Pacific makes the sta-tionary waves present PNA(Pacific-North America)pattern in the winter hemisphere,but it doesnot in the summer hemisphere.It suggests that the meridional circulation has a marked influence onthe route of stationary wave propagation both in the winter and summer hemispheres.     

Detection of external influence on trends of atmospheric storminess and northern oceans wave heights

The atmospheric storminess as inferred from geostrophic wind energy and ocean wave heights have increased in boreal winter over the past half century in the high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere (especially the northeast North Atlantic), and have decreased in more southerly northern latitudes. This study shows that these trend patterns contain a detectable response to anthropogenic and natural forcing combined. The effect of external influence is found to be strongest in the winter hemisphere, that is, in the northern hemisphere in January–March and in the southern hemisphere in July–September. However, the simulated response to anthropogenic and natural forcing combined, which was obtained directly from climate models in the case of geostrophic wind energy and indirectly via an empirical downscaling procedure in the case of ocean wave heights, is significantly weaker than the magnitude of the observed changes in these parameters.     

利用FY-3C气象卫星GNSS掩星估计全球重力波变化与分析

大气重力波是地球大气层中广泛存在的重要大气动力学扰动,研究其分布和变化规律对理解大气物理、大气结构以及大气动力学等具有重要意义.传统大气重力波探测手段,如雷达和探空气球等,均存在探测时间短、有效探测高度低等缺点,全球卫星导航系统（GNSS）掩星观测具有全天候、低成本、高精度等优点,被广泛应用于地球大气探测和研究,为研究区域或全球重力波变化和活动特征提供了新的观测手段.本文利用中国第一颗搭载GNSS掩星设备气象卫星——风云3C （FY-3C）获得的掩星数据,反演得到2014年8月—2016年12月大气温度轮廓线,并首次估计重力波参数分布,分析了重力波参数的时空变化分布特征.结果表明,海陆季节性对流导致冬夏两季的重力波势能强于春秋两季,赤道对流作用导致赤道区域重力波强于两极,夏季南半球中低纬度地区重力波活动频繁,冬季北半球中低纬度区域重力波活动频繁.重力波随着高度的上升,势能逐渐下降.另外,地形是低层大气重力波的主要来源.     

Seasonality of Interannual Inter-hemispheric Oscillations over the Past Five Decades

Air mass is inter-hemispherically redistributed, leading to an interesting phenomenon known as the Inter-Hemispheric Oscillation (IHO). In the present article, the seasonality of the interannual IHO has been examined by employing monthly mean reanalyses from NCEP/NCAR, EAR40, and JRA25 for the period of 1958-2006. It is found that the IHO indices as calculated from different reanalyses are generally consistent with each other. A distinct seesaw structure in all four seasons between the northern and southern...     

INTERHEMISPHERIC EFFECT OF DIABATICALLY INDUCED LINEAR STATIONARY WAVES

A numerical investigation of diabatically induced stationary waves in northern winter season was carried out by using a linear steady state spectral model with primitive equations in global domain.It was focused on inter-hemispheric connections of stationary wave behaviour in response to several cases of idealized thermal forcings centred in different latitudes.The results showed that the thermally forced stationary waves in one hemisphere might propagate across the equator into the other hemisphere, and thus contribute substantially to the maintenance and variation of the stationary waves in both bendspheres.     

Delayed Seasonal Transition of Tropical Wave Activity in the CMIP3 Global Climate Models

This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century experiments of 18 global climate models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP3).The ensemble result of the 18 GCMs shows that the observed seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity cannot be well reproduced.The seasonal transition of wave activity from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere is delayed from April in the observations to May in the simulations,indicating that the simulated active season of tropical waves in the northern hemisphere is delayed and shortened.This delayed seasonal transition of tropical wave activity is associated with a delayed seasonal transition of simulated mean precipitation.The mean precipitation in April and May shows a double-ITCZ problem,and the horizontal resolution is important to the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity.Because of the coincident seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity and tropical cyclone(TC) geneses,the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity may imply a similar problem of TC genesis in the GCMs,namely,a delayed and shortened TC season in the northern hemisphere.     

有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展

南半球大气环流是全球大气环流的重要组成部分,也是影响气候变化和亚洲季风系统的一个重要因素.中国气象学家很早就注意到南半球大气环流对东亚夏季风降水的影响.近年来,有关南半球气候变率的研究目前正受到世界气象学家越来越多的关注.南半球中高纬大气资料的丰富及南极涛动的确定,使得认识南半球高中纬环流的年际变动规律及其与东亚气候关系成为可能.本文主要介绍近年来有关南极涛动的年际变化与沙尘天气发生频次及东亚冬春季气候的关系,古气候资料揭示的南极涛动与华北降水的关系,以及南半球大气环流与长江中下游夏季降水的关系和南极涛动变率的可预测性等方面的研究进展.并对未来研究方向作了初步的展望.     

Tropical influence on boreal summer mid-latitude stationary waves

While organized tropical convection is a well-known source of extratropical planetary waves, state-of-the-art climate models still show serious deficiencies in simulating accurately the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the associated teleconnections. In the present study, the remote influence of the tropical atmospheric circulation is evaluated in ensembles of global boreal summer simulations in which the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain. Sensitivity tests to the experimental design are first conducted using prescribed climatological SST. They show that the tropical relaxation does not improve the zonal mean extratropical climatology but does lead to a significantly improved representation of the mid-latitude stationary waves in both hemispheres. Low-pass filtering of the relaxation fields has no major effect on the model response, suggesting that high-frequency tropical variability is not responsible for extratropical biases. Dividing the nudging strength by a factor 10 only decreases the magnitude of the response. Model errors in each monsoon domain contribute to deficiencies in the model??s mid-latitude climatology, although an exaggerated large-scale subsidence in the central equatorial Pacific appears as the main source of errors for the representation of stationary waves in the Arpege-Climat model. Case studies are then conducted using either climatological or observed SST. The focus is first on summer 2003 characterized by a strong and persistent anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe. This pattern is more realistic in nudging experiments than in simulations only driven by observed SST, especially when the nudging domain is centred over Central America. Other case studies also show a significant tropical forcing of the summer mid-latitude stationary waves and suggest a weak influence of prescribed observed SST in the northern extratropics. Results therefore indicate that improving the tropical divergent circulation and its response to tropical SST anomalies remains a key issue for increasing the skill of extratropical seasonal predictions, not only in the winter hemisphere but also in the boreal summer hemisphere where the prediction of heatwave and drought likelihood is expected to become an important challenge with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.     

Winter AO/NAO modifies summer ocean heat content and monsoonal circulation over the western Indian Ocean

This paper analyzes the possible influence of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO) on the Indian Ocean upper ocean heat content in summer as well as the summer monsoonal circulation. The strong interannual co-variation between winter 1000-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and summer ocean heat content in the uppermost 120 m over the tropical Indian Ocean was investigated by a singular decomposition analysis for the period 1979–2014. The second paired-modes explain 23.8% of the squared covariance, and reveal an AO/NAO pattern over the North Atlantic and a warming upper ocean in the western tropical Indian Ocean. The positive upper ocean heat content enhances evaporation and convection, and results in an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motion over 5°S–5°N and descending over 15°–25°N. Correspondingly, in the lower troposphere, significantly anomalous northerly winds appear over the western Indian Ocean north of the equator, implying a weaker summer monsoon circulation. The off-equator oceanic Rossby wave plays a key role in linking the AO/NAO and the summer heat content anomalies. In boreal winter, a positive AO/NAO triggers a down-welling Rossby wave in the central tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric teleconnection. As the Rossby wave arrives in the western Indian Ocean in summer, it results in anomalous upper ocean heating near the equator mainly through the meridional advection. The AO/NAO-forced Rossby wave and the resultant upper ocean warming are well reproduced by an ocean circulation model. The winter AO/NAO could be a potential season-lead driver of the summer atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Indian Ocean.     

热带季节内振荡时空特征的诊断研究

文中应用谱分析、小波分析等方法及较长时段的资料进一步总结了热带季节内振荡的一些基本气候特征。热带季节内振荡主要活跃在 3个地区 ,最强的是西太平洋地区 ,其次是印度洋地区 ,第三是东太平洋沿岸的赤道以北地区。热带季节内振荡有明显的季节变化 ,西太平洋地区和印度洋地区的季节内振荡 1a中有两次极大值 ,冬季主要活跃在南半球 (10°S附近 ) ,而夏季则活跃在北半球 (10°N附近 ) ,春、秋季热带季节内振荡则明显减弱。东赤道太平洋北侧的季节内振荡只在夏季活跃 ,而冬季则很弱 ,且不随季节而南北移动。对于大气的大尺度要素 ,例如u风场 ,热带季节内振荡的能量主要集中在 1波。而对于像降水这样尺度较小的要素 ,热带季节内振荡的能量则相对较分散 ,尽管它仍然在 1波有最大的能量 ,但 2～ 4波也具有较接近的能量。热带季节内振荡以东移的波动为主。热带季节内振荡存在着年际甚至更长时间的变化。 2 0世纪 70年代末期季节内振荡的幅度有一明显的突变。     

Impacts of Indian Ocean SST biases on the Indian Monsoon: as simulated in a global coupled model

In this study, the impact of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the atmospheric mean state over the Indian Ocean and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is examined in the framework of the SINTEX-F2 coupled model through forced and coupled control simulations and several sensitivity coupled experiments. During boreal winter and spring, most of the Indian Ocean biases are common in forced and coupled simulations, suggesting that the errors originate from the atmospheric model, especially a dry islands bias in the Maritime Continent. During boreal summer, the air-sea coupling decreases the ISM rainfall over South India and the monsoon strength to realistic amplitude, but at the expense of important degradations of the rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mean states in the Indian Ocean. Strong SST biases of opposite sign are observed over the western (WIO) and eastern (EIO) tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts over the ocean (land) are systematically higher (lower) in the northern hemisphere and the south equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall band is missing in the control coupled simulation. During boreal fall, positive dipole-like errors emerge in the mean state of the coupled model, with warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the WIO (EIO), suggesting again a significant impact of the SST errors. The exact contributions and the distinct roles of these SST errors in the seasonal mean atmospheric state of the coupled model have been further assessed with two sensitivity coupled experiments, in which the SST biases are replaced by observed climatology either in the WIO (warm bias) or EIO (cold bias). The correction of the WIO warm bias leads to a global decrease of rainfall in the monsoon region, which confirms that the WIO is an important source of moisture for the ISM. On the other hand, the correction of the EIO cold bias leads to a global improvement of precipitation and circulation mean state during summer and fall. Nevertheless, all these improvements due to SST corrections seem drastically limited by the atmosphere intrinsic biases, including prominently the unimodal oceanic position of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) during summer and the enhanced westward wind stress along the equator during fall.     

Factors controlling the seasonality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

By analyzing observational data, previous studies have indicated that the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is active during the boreal winter but relatively weak during the boreal summer. However, the factors that control seasonal MJO variation are not clear. To quantitatively understand the relative contributions of the occurrence frequency of enhanced MJO events and their averaged strength and lifespan to seasonal MJO amplitude, we defined the MJO events of 1979–2014 and analyzed their features in different seasons by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the newly proposed RMM-r index. The results indicate that the MJO events show a higher frequency of occurrence, a stronger intensity and a longer duration during the boreal winter (Dec.–Feb.) and spring (Mar.–May). However, the frequency, strength and lifespan of MJO events are all reduced during the boreal summer (Jun.–Aug.) and autumn (Sep.–Nov.). The enhanced MJO events in winter–spring also show a large ratio of variance for eastward to westward components. To elucidate how large-scale background fields affect seasonal MJO variation, a series of sensitivity experiments was conducted by using a 2.5-layer model that can simulate MJO-like features. It is found that the variation in low-level moisture (vertical wind shear) is the key large-scale factor affecting the seasonal variation in MJO strength (in propagation). In comparison with the summer–autumn seasons when the MJO is relatively weakened, the relatively abundant low-level moisture near the equator during boreal winter–spring may strengthen the development of MJO convection and circulation, whereas the relatively weak easterly shear (or the westerly shear anomaly) is conducive to the enhancement of an eastward-propagating MJO component.     

大气环流的一个数值试验

考虑地形及加热作用,建立了一个大气环流数值试验准地转二层模式。在辐射加热中考虑了云对长短波辐射的影响,而假定云的出现与否仅依赖于垂直速度。在模式中放置了北半球实际的地形及海陆分布,而下垫面的温度由求解下垫面热传导方程得出。把方程组化成非线性常微分方程组,用Runge-Kutta方法在电子计算机上求解。 在不计扰动的情况下,在具有年周期的太阳短波辐射的作用下,逐渐建立起下垫面纬圈平均温度梯度及基本气流。下垫面温度具有很清楚的季节变化,位相落后于太阳短波辐射一个月,求得的冬夏季的下垫面温度值与实际的气候值相当。基本气流也有明显的季节变化,夏季风速减弱,急流向北移,冬季风速增强,急流向南移,位相落后于太阳短波辐射一个多月。 北半球实际的海陆分市的热力特性,在冬季能使亚洲及太平洋上空变冷,并能使大西洋及欧洲上空变暖。在非绝热加热和地形的共同作用下,在冬季出现了随时间变化着的东亚大槽和北美大槽,以及冷空气活动过程。这种冷空气活动有其偏爱地区:起源于苏联新地岛上空,并向东南方向移动。     

北半球平流层月平均环流的若干基本事实

本文用北半球平流层20年月平均的高度资料分析了北半球平流层30、50和100hPa各层平均高度的时、空分布、年变程、月变程以及平均环流的演变特征。分析指出北半球平流层大气环流由冬到夏表现为:由极地涡旋完全转变为极地高压,高层(30 hPa在4月中完成)比低层(100hPa在6月完成)早一个月以上;由夏到冬反之,由极地高压完全转变成极地涡旋,高层(50hPa在8月中完成)比低层(100hPa在10月完成)也提前一个月以上。把这些基本事实与对流层的环流年变相结合,将有助于长期天气预报。     

Seasonal Variation of Stationary and Low-Frequency Rossby Wave Rays

The wave rays and their seasonal variation of stationary and low－frequency Rossby waves are studied by using the Runge-Kutta scheme. The results show that for stationary waves the rays can reach lower latitudes in winter, and are limited in higher latitudes in summer. The main differences between the stationary and low-frequency wave rays are that low-frequency waves can propagate across the equator and the easterlies will not be an obstacle on their propagation. It explained to some extent the interaction of disturbances between the Northern and Southern Hemi-spheres. The lower wave frequencies and the stronger easterly flow are, the more difficult low-frequency waves will be to propagate across the equator. The waves with 20-day period are easier to propagate across the equator than that with 50-day period. The winter is the most favorable season for low-frequency waves to propagate into another hem-isphere.     

Seasonal Phase-Locking of Peak Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean

The sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly of the eastern Indian Ocean （EIO） exhibits cold anomalies in the boreal summer or fall during E1 Nino development years and warm anomalies in winter or spring following the E1 Nino events. There also tend to be warm anomalies in the boreal summer or fall during La Nina development years and cold anomalies in winter or spring following the La Nina events. The seasonal phase-locking of SST change in the EIO associated with E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation is linked to the variability of convection over the maritime continent, which induces an atmospheric Rossby wave over the EIO. Local air-sea interaction exerts different effects on SST anomalies, depending on the relationship between the Rossby wave and the mean flow related to the seasonal migration of the buffer zone, which shifts across the equator between summer and winter. The summer cold events start with cooling in the Timor Sea, together with increasing easterly flow along the equator. Negative SST anomalies develop near Sumatra, through the interaction between the atmospheric Rossby wave and the underneath sea surface. These SST anomalies are also contributed to by the increased upwelling of the mixed layer and the equatorward temperature advection in the boreal fall. As the buffer zone shifts across the equator towards boreal winter, the anomalous easterly flow tends to weaken the mean flow near the equator, and the EIO SST increases due to the reduction of latent heat flux from the sea surface. As a result, wintertime SST anomalies appear with a uniform and nearly basin-wide pattern beneath the easterly anomalies. These SST anomalies are also caused by the increase in solar radiation associated with the anticyclonic atmospheric Rossby wave over the EIO. Similarly, the physical processes of the summer warm events, which are followed by wintertime cold SST anomalies, can be explained by the changes in atmospheric and oceanic fields with opposite signs to those anomalies described above.