作物气候生产潜力研究进展

综述国内关于作物气候生产潜力研究的进展概况，并主要就建立作物气候生产潜力数学模型及其应用问题作了分析。     

PAGES计划与CLIVAR计划中的交叉科学问题

过去全球变化（ＰＡＧＥＳ）是国际地圈、生物圈计划（ＩＧＢＰ）的一个核心计划，从１９９１年开始预计施行到２０１０年。气候变率与可预报性研究（ＣＬＩＶＡＲ）是世界气候研究计划（ＷＣＲＰ）新设的一个子计划，从１９９６年开始也是施行到２０１０年。两个计划有不少交叉的科学问题：（１）低纬气候变化动力学，（２）全球海洋温盐环流，（３）区域到全球尺度水的变率，（４）气候突变动力学，（５）气候模式发展及改进，（６）气候变化的检测，本文对以上问题作了扼要介绍。     

气候变化、气候谈判及其启示

气候变暖是人类迄今为止面临的最重大环境问题，也是20世纪末21世纪初以来世界面临的严峻挑战。为解决这个问题，同时也为了应对挑战，国际社会作了多方面的努力。气候谈判在经历了《京都议定书》阶段后，目前已进入后《京都议定书》阶段。气候谈判是一场国际博弈，各个国家都想从博弈中获得自己的利益。气候变化、气候谈判给予我们的启示是：气候问题是环境问题、发展问题同时也是政治问题。围绕气候问题进行的谈判是经济战、政治战。解决包括气候变暖问题在内的环境问题需要热情和勇气，更需要智慧和耐心。     

美国第20届气候诊断年会

文章介绍了１９９５年１０月在西雅图召开的美国第２０届气候诊断年会，着重讨论了如下８个问题：气候变暖，ＥＮＳＯ影响，全球降水分析，年代际气候变率，ＥＮＳＯ预测，数值气候预测，统计气候预报及气候模拟。     

大尺度气候数值模拟的一些情况

本文就大尺度气候数值模拟的一些情况作了简要介绍。内容包括气候数值模拟的重要性,用作气候数值模拟的两类数值模式,国内外近年来气候数值模拟的主要进展以及气候数值模拟中存在的若干主要问题等。     

利用农情气候特征完善森林火情数据库

就卫星遥感监测火情工作中存在的缺陷，结合农情气候特点，提供一条解决问题的思路，并对此应用前景作了展望。     

短期气候(月、季、年)逐月降水预测系统研究

描述了短期气候逐月降永预测系统的概念及其实现。首先讨论了把气候模式与人工神经网络结合起来开发一个气候预测支持系统的必要性和可能性。然后，给出了系统设计的框图，并对系统结构作了详细的讨论。最后，提出了有关预测结果分析和进一步完善的看法。     

国外关于年代际气候变率的研究

文中指出在气候变率与可预报性研究计划中,列出年代际气候变率及可预报性研究子计划充分显示出这个问题的重要性,回顾并总结了近年来年代际气候变率的研究成果,特别对全球气候变暖、海气相互作用、温盐环流、自然气候变率和ＥＮＳＯ的年代际变率的研究几个重点问题进行了讨论,最后对年代际气候变率研究今后的发展方向提出了看法。     

西部大开发应注意的几个气候问题

提出了自治区实施西部大开发应注意的四个气候问题，即气候多样性问题，气候资源合理开发利用问题，气候灾害问题，气候变暖问题。章中提出的论点可供进行生态环境治理、基础设施建设、产业结构调整的科学决策中参考应用。     

有关气候模式研究的三种目标

气候模式(即对未来气候的预测)的研究,通常有三种表现形式。第一,与1 95 8年以来的近代观测所作的比较;第二,使用温室大气作用项,用超出1 0 0年时间进行模式之间的比较,计划找出当前气候灵敏度数值离差的原因;第三,利用自然模式超长运行( >5 0 0年)的比较研究其可变性并确定其自然变化的宽度。     

我们未来的气候:人类的干预有多大?

对有关气候变化的观测事实和可能原因的研究做了简要回顾和总结，对21世纪人类活动和自然因子对气候系统的可能影响做了扼要讨论。近20余年全球气候变化科学有明显的进步，但要对21世纪气候趋势做出可靠预测，还需要在过去气候演化历史和成因、全球碳循环、气候系统模式与模拟、土地利用和土地覆盖变化的影响以及气候系统的稳定性等方面开展深入研究，以便进一步减少科学上的不确定性。     

中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾

天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。      

公众为何对气候变化的科学结论信任不充分

通过系统分析世界各国气候传播领域近年来的进展,以解释为何公众对气候变化的科学结论缺乏信任这一复杂问题.文中首先概述了各国公众对气候变化的态度以及影响公众态度的社会、政治与经济因素,再分析了各国媒体对气候变化的报道及其媒体效果,并重点探究了社会心理因素如何影响人们对气候变化的认知与态度.此外国际气候传播研究对我国气候传播...     

OK Boomer: A decade of generational differences in feelings about climate change

The emergence of concern about and evidence of climate change has been argued to create a cultural milieu unique to the Millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) and iGeneration (aka iGens or Generation Z born after 1997). The present research tested a) claims of unique angst about climate change among younger versus older generations, b) growing generational discrepancies over time in emotions about climate change, c) generational differences for several emotions about climate change, and d) the implications of these emotions for motivating people to discuss climate change with others, potentially aiding coping with climate change and facilitating action to address climate change. Survey data gathered from 2010 to 2019 of a representative sample of United States residents (N = 22,468) document greater increases in worry about climate change and, to a lesser degree, anger and guilt about climate change, within the two youngest generations relative to changes among Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent and Greatest Generations. Although generational differences were small and suggest overstatements of unique effects for younger generations, increases in younger generations’ emotions transform into the two youngest generations reporting the strongest emotions in 2019. Over ten years, these differential shifts in emotions explain more substantial increases in the frequency of discussing climate in the youngest generations.     

‘Modelling the Arctic Boundary Layer: An Evaluation of Six Arcmip Regional-Scale Models using Data from the Sheba Project’

A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface. In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables, surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures. Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second. The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere–ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution.     

典型场选取对多要素气候态相似季节划分的影响

多要素气候态相似季节划分法作为一种新的季节划分客观化方法,在近几年被广泛应用于气候变化研究、气候监测和短期气候预测等。该方法的关键之处在于多要素的融合和典型场的选取,其中典型场是指多要素气候态相似法中所选取的能代表冬季和夏季平均气候特征的气候态距平场。文中采用3种不同方案选取典型场：方法一,基于60年平均气候态选取典型场;方法二,基于30年平均气候态选取典型场;方法三,基于逐年气候态状况选取典型场。研究不同典型场的选取对多要素气候态相似季节划分法划分结果的可能影响,进而以1998年和2013年华中地区的季节划分为例,对第3种典型场划分方法的准确性进行论证。结果显示,典型场作为多要素气候态相似季节划分法的划分基准,对季节划分的结果至关重要,基于单年气候状况选取的典型场与基于多年平均气候态选取的典型场之间的差异存在年代际变化,且在气候变化的转折阶段差异尤为显著。基于第3种典型场选取方案的1998年和2013年季节划分结果能准确地反映当年华中地区气候态和大气环流的季节变化情况。     

区域气候模拟研究

区域气候模拟是近几年发展起来的研究有限区域气候及气候变化的方法。由于区域气候模式较好地表示了地形和地表状况，同时包含较详细的陆地过程方案，因而能捕获许多大气环流模式难以分辨的区域尺度温度、降水分布和土壤水分变化特征。此外，区域气候模拟对于了解温室气体强迫可能导致的全球增暖在区域尺度上的特征及生态、环境效应也具有重要的意义。该文总结区域气候模式和模拟试验结果，并指出存在问题及今后研究的重点。     

Considering attitudinal uncertainty in the climate change skepticism continuum

In this paper we present an empirically driven language to discuss climate change skepticism. We conceptualize skeptic/skepticism as an umbrella term that includes those who actively reject climate science and those who are uncertain about climate change. We propose four categories for better empirical analysis of climate skepticism: epistemic deniers, epistemic doubters (borrowing from Capstick and Pidgeon 2014), attribution deniers, and attribution doubters (borrowing from Rahmstorf 2004). Using a unique dataset of surveys (n = 1000) and interviews (n = 33) with residents of the U.S. Pacific Northwest who are skeptical about climate change, we compare those four groups across several predictors and demographic variables (age, race, gender, political ideology, religiosity, income, education, and level of trust in science) and outcome variables (environmental concern, policy support, and conspiracy ideation (adherence to the belief that climate change is a “hoax”). We demonstrate the importance of considering attitudinal uncertainty in the analysis of climate skepticism by providing evidence for the presence of a continuum of thought wherein epistemic deniers and attribution doubters make up the two ends of a continuum with more complicated distinctions between epistemic doubters and attribution deniers.     

China’s rising influence on climate governance: Forging a path for the global South

China’s influence on climate governance has been steadily increasing since the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015. Much of this influence, this article argues, has come from China forging a path for climate adaptation and mitigation for the global South. This is having far-reaching consequences, the article further argues, for the politics of global climate governance. China’s discursive and diplomatic power in climate politics is growing as China builds alliances across the global South. China is leveraging this enhanced soft power to elevate the importance of adaptation in multilateral climate negotiations, advance a technocentric approach to climate mitigation, export its development model, and promote industrial-scale afforestation as a nature-based climate solution. China’s strategy is enhancing climate financing, technology transfers, renewable power, and adaptation infrastructure across the global South. To some extent, this is helping with a transition to a low-carbon world economy. Yet China’s leadership is also reinforcing incremental, technocratic, and growth-oriented solutions in global climate governance. These findings advance the understanding of China’s role in global environmental politics, especially its growing influence on climate governance in the global South.     

Estimating present climate in a warming world: a model-based approach

Weather services base their operational definitions of “present” climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period such as 1961–1990 or 1971–2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a “delta change” method, in which model-simulated climate changes and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991–2002, the method works well for temperature, with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the observations for 1961–1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica, 8–9 months per year and 8–9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971–2000. Along with the overall warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature is expected.