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通过对1970年以来太原盆地及其两侧区ML≥3.0地震的研究,发现在太原盆地北部,沿交城断裂,太谷断裂以及盆地两侧的4个隆起部位发生的ML≥3.0地震与华北地震区距大太原盆地600km范围内发生的Ms≥5.8地震有一定的联系。 相似文献
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AR模型预测太原盆地地震活动的趋势 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
以太原盆地近500年以来的地震序列为样本,通过平稳检验后,建立AR模型,并以此模型为基础对未来太原盆地的地震活动进行了计算和预测,结果表明:到2005年太原盆地将发生M=5.0级地震。 相似文献
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对公元1000-1985年太原盆地M≥4.0地震进行了时序分析,结果表明,它们在时间轴上和山西地震带及至华北地区有着相似的平静一起伏变化特点,以此划出4个地震活动期和若干活动幕,指出活动最大地震存在逐步升级现象;在空间上重复性高,形成3个地震巢和以巢为主的地震条带与地震跳迁现象,认为在2000年前后,太原盆地将处在地震高活动时段,有可能在地震巢附近发生若干个中强地震,山西和华北地区强震活动也有可能与之同步。 相似文献
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利用太原遥测地震台网观测到的1986年9月至1990年12月发生在太原盆地的可交切震中的736个地震,选取多种方法,对盆地的监测能力进行判定,给出了监控下限值,并提出对盆地内台风布局的建议。 相似文献
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通过对太原盆地近10a来,遥测台网记录到的地震做震中分布,地震活动频度及能量释放等分析,得出太原盆地地震活动时间分布上人有“丛集性”,盆地小震活动频繁,应变能释放常以小震群形式释放的结论。指出今后2a,太原盆地将出现地震活动频度高,应变能释放逐渐回升的现象。 相似文献
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利用双泊松模式计算了山西临汾盆地、太原盆地、代县盆地所围限地区未来50年发震概率;利用概率分配法与衰减规律相结合,计算了未来地震危险性。 相似文献
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利用历史地震资料,分析研究了山西地震带中段(包括大同、忻定、太原、临汾和运城)的M≥6地震活动特征,并对这几个盆地中强地震活动时序进行了分析对比,发现它们具明显的节奏活动特点。并对今后百年内山西地震带中段的中强地震活动趋势作出了估计。 相似文献
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M. N. French R. L. Bras W. F. Krajewski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(1):27-45
A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities. 相似文献
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Gtz Schroth Luciana Ferreira Da Silva Marc‐Andree Wolf Wenceslau Geraldes Teixeira Wolfgang Zech 《水文研究》1999,13(10):1423-1436
The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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M. A. Kahn 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2000,28(2):95-101
Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate. 相似文献