Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming

Although current global warming may have a large anthropogenic component, its quantification relies primarily on complex General Circulation Models (GCM’s) assumptions and codes; it is desirable to complement this with empirically based methodologies. Previous attempts to use the recent climate record have concentrated on “fingerprinting” or otherwise comparing the record with GCM outputs. By using CO₂ radiative forcings as a linear surrogate for all anthropogenic effects we estimate the total anthropogenic warming and (effective) climate sensitivity finding: ΔT _anth  = 0.87 ± 0.11 K, $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} ,{\text{eff}}}} = 3.08 \pm 0.58\,{\text{K}}$ . These are close the IPPC AR5 values ΔT _anth  = 0.85 ± 0.20 K and $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} }} = 1.5\!-\!4.5\,{\text{K}}$ (equilibrium) climate sensitivity and are independent of GCM models, radiative transfer calculations and emission histories. We statistically formulate the hypothesis of warming through natural variability by using centennial scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take into account two nonclassical statistical features—long range statistical dependencies and “fat tailed” probability distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability of extremes). Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels >99 %.     

Time-scale and state dependence of the carbon-cycle feedback to climate

Climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration are intimately coupled in the Earth system: CO₂ influences climate through the greenhouse effect, but climate also affects CO₂ through its impact on the amount of carbon stored on land and in the ocean. The change in atmospheric CO₂ as a response to a change in temperature ( $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ ) is a useful measure to quantify the feedback between the carbon cycle and climate. Using an ensemble of experiments with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we show a pronounced time-scale dependence of $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ . A maximum is found on centennial scales with $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values for the model ensemble in the range 5–12 ppm °C^?1, while lower values are found on shorter and longer time scales. These results are consistent with estimates derived from past observations. Up to centennial scales, the land carbon response to climate dominates the CO₂ signal in the atmosphere, while on longer time scales the ocean becomes important and eventually dominates on multi-millennial scales. In addition to the time-scale dependence, modeled $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ show a distinct dependence on the initial state of the system. In particular, on centennial time-scales, high $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values are correlated with high initial land carbon content. A similar relation holds also for the CMIP5 models, although for $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ computed from a very different experimental setup. The emergence of common patterns like this could prove to usefully constrain the climate–carbon cycle feedback.     

Turbulent Schmidt Numbers Above a Wheat Crop

Measurements of vertical fluxes and concentration differences above a spring wheat crop (height $h=0.9$ – $0.95$  m, row spacing 0.25 m, displacement height $d=0.5$ – $0.6$  m) were analyzed to determine the Schmidt numbers for water vapour ( $S^\mathrm{v}$ ) and carbon dioxide ( $S^\mathrm{c}$ ) based on concentration differences between intakes 2.55 and 3.54 m above the ground. During nearly-neutral stratification $S^\mathrm{v}(0) = 0.68 \pm 0.1$ while $S^\mathrm{c} = 0.78 \pm 0.2$ , implying that the roughness sublayer extended above $2.5 h$ .     

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO₂ enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year^?1 (7 kg C ha^?1 year^?1) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO₂ enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO₂ manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.     

Variability of energy fluxes in relation to the net-radiation of urban and suburban areas: a case study

This paper addresses the relation between the net-radiation (Q ^*) and the ground heat flux (Q _G), the energy stored in the soil ( $\Updelta Q_{\rm S}$ ), and the residual of the energy partition (R = Q ^* ? Q _H  ? Q _E ) of urban and suburban areas of Oklahoma City, USA. These three forms of energy were observed or estimated from observations taken during Joint Urban 2003 Campaign. The database includes net-radiation, soil temperature, ground heat flux, and turbulent fluxes. In most cases the estimates of the energy stored in the soil were obtained by assuming roughly a certain type of soil and an effective soil depth. From the residuals it seems to be possible to distinguish the urban boundary layer from the suburban boundary layer when plotted as a function of net-radiation. Hysteresis coefficients were computed for fits of net-radiation against R, $\Updelta Q_{\rm S}$ and Q _G. In particular, the hysteresis patterns show that Q ^* vs. R represents clearer urban areas or suburban areas under the influence of an urban “plume”. On the other hand, hysteresis curves obtained from $\Updelta Q_{\rm S}$ or Q _G account for better the ground composition. A possible consequence is that the land use of urban areas could be roughly inferred from curve shapes such as Q ^* vs. R, or Q ^* versus another input variable representing the storage term. The objective is to show the variability of the subsurface-related energy fluxes across an urban area using these three different quantities and also to show that $\Updelta Q_{\rm S}, \,Q_{\rm G}$ , or R (and their corresponding hysteresis curves) are likely to be quantitatively different, which have not been clearly stated in the literature.     

Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends

Temperature is the principal factor that determines rice growth, development and ultimately grain yield. In this study, normal growing-degree-days (NGDD) and killing growing-degree-days (KGDD) were used to capture the different effects of normal and extreme temperatures on rice yields, respectively. Based on these indexes, we assessed the contributions of temperature variations to county-level rice yields across China during the historical period (1980–2008), and estimated the potential exposure of rice to extreme temperature stress in the near future (2021–2050). The results showed that historical temperature variations had measurable impacts on rice yields with a distinct spatial pattern: for different regions, such variations had contributed much to the increased rice yields in Northeast China (Region I) (0.59 % yield year^?1) and some portions of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (Region II) (0.34 % yield year^?1), but seriously hindered the improvements of rice yields in the Sichuan Basin (SB) (?0.29 % yield year^?1) and the southern cultivation areas (Region IV) (?0.17 % yield year^?1); for the entire country, half of the contributions were positive and the other half were negative, resulting in a balance pattern with an average of 0.01 % yield year^?1. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, climate warming during 2021–2050 would substantially reduce cold stress but increase heat stress in the rice planting areas across China. For the future period, Region I, II and eastern China would be continually exposed to more severe cold stress than the other regions; Region III (including SB and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR)) would be the hot spot of heat stress.     

Greening the terrestrial biosphere: simulated feedbacks on atmospheric heat and energy circulation

Much research focuses on how the terrestrial biosphere influences climate through changes in surface albedo (reflectivity), stomatal conductance and leaf area index (LAI). By using a fully-coupled GCM (HadCM3LC), our research objective was to induce an increase in the growth of global vegetation to isolate the effect of increased LAI on atmospheric exchange of heat and moisture. Our Control simulation had a mean global net primary production (NPP) of 56.3 GtCyr^?1 which is half that of our scenario value of 115.1 GtCyr^?1. LAI and latent energy (Q _E) were simulated to increase globally, except in areas around Antarctica. A highly productive biosphere promotes mid-latitude mean surface cooling of ~2.5°C in the summer, and surface warming of ~1.0°C in the winter. The former response is primarily the result of reduced Bowen ratio (i.e. increased production of Q _E) in combination with small increases in planetary albedo. Response in winter temperature is likely due to decreased planetary albedo that in turn permits a greater amount of solar radiation to reach the Earth’s surface. Energy balance calculations show that between 75° and 90°N latitude, an additional 2.4 Wm^?2 of surface heat must be advected into the region to maintain energy balance, and ultimately causes high northern latitudes to warm by up to 3°C. We postulate that large increases in Q _E promoted by increased growth of terrestrial vegetation could contribute to greater surface-to-atmosphere exchange and convection. Our high growth simulation shows that convective rainfall substantially increases across three latitudinal bands relative to Control; in the tropics, across the monsoonal belt, and in mid-latitude temperate regions. Our theoretical research has implications for applied climatology; in the modeling of past “hot-house” climates, in explaining the greening of northern latitudes in modern-day times, and for predicting future changes in surface temperature with continued increases in atmospheric CO₂.     

Coupled North Atlantic slope water forcing on Gulf of Maine temperatures over the past millennium

To investigate ocean variability during the last millennium in the Western Gulf of Maine (GOM), we collected a 142-year-old living bivalve (Arctica islandica L.) in 2004, and three fossil A. islandica shells (calibrated ¹⁴C_AMS = 1030 ± 78 ad; 1320 ± 45 ad; 1357 ± 40 ad) for stable isotope and growth increment analysis. A statistically significant relationship exists between modern GOM temperature records [shell isotope-derived (30 m) (r = ?0.79; P < 0.007), Prince 5 (50 m) (r = ?0.72; P < 0.019), Boothbay Harbor SST (r = ?0.76; P < 0.011)], and Labrador Current (LC) transport data from the Eastern Newfoundland Slope during 1993–2003. In all cases, as LC transport increased, GOM water temperatures decreased the following year. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influence GOM water temperatures in the most recent period, with water temperatures decreasing during NAO and AMO negative modes most likely linked to LC transport and Gulf Stream interaction. Mean shell-derived isotopic changes (δ¹⁸O_c) during the last 1,000 years were +0.47‰ and likely reflect a 1–2°C cooling from 1000 ad to present. Based on these results, we suggest that observed cooling in the GOM during the last millennium was due to increased transport and/or cooling of the LC, and decreased Gulf Stream influence on the GOM.     

Atmospheric ionic species in PM2.5 and PM1 aerosols in the ambient air of eastern central India

This study elucidates the characteristics of ambient PM_2.5 (fine) and PM₁ (submicron) samples collected between July 2009 and June 2010 in Raipur, India, in terms of water soluble ions, i.e. Na⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ , K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO ₃ ^? and SO ₄ ^2? . The total number of PM_2.5 and PM₁ samples collected with eight stage cascade impactor was 120. Annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁ were 150.9?±?78.6 μg/m³ and 72.5?±?39.0 μg/m³, respectively. The higher particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations during the winter season are essentially due to the increase of biomass burning and temperature inversion. Out of above 8 ions, the most abundant ions were SO ₄ ^2? , NO ₃ ^? and NH ₄ ⁺ for both PM_2.5 and PM₁ aerosols; their average concentrations were 7.86?±?5.86 μg/m³, 3.12?±?2.63 μg/m³ and 1.94?±?1.28 μg/m³ for PM_2.5, and 5.61?±?3.79 μg/m³, 1.81?±?1.21 μg/m³ and 1.26?±?0.88 μg/m³ for PM₁, respectively. The major secondary species SO ₄ ^2? , NO ₃ ^? and NH ₄ ⁺ accounted for 5.81%, 1.88% and 1.40% of the total mass of PM_2.5 and 11.10%, 2.68%, and 2.48% of the total mass of PM₁, respectively. The source identification was conducted for the ionic species in PM_2.5 and PM₁ aerosols. The results are discussed by the way of correlations and principal component analysis. Spearman correlation indicated that Cl^? and K⁺ in PM_2.5 and PM₁ can be originated from similar type of sources. Principal component analysis reveals that there are two major sources (anthropogenic and natural such as soil derived particles) for PM_2.5 and PM₁ fractions.     

Hourly estimation of soil heat flux density at the soil surface with three models and two field methods

Heat flux density at the soil surface (G ₀) was evaluated hourly on a vegetal cover 0.08 m high, with a leaf area index of 1.07 m² m^?2, during daylight hours, using Choudhury et al. (Agric For Meteorol 39:283–297, 1987) ( $ G_0^{\text{rn}} $ ), Santanello and Friedl (J Appl Meteorol 42:851–862, 2003) ( $ G_0^{\text{s}} $ ), and force-restore ( $ G_0^{\text{fr}} $ ) models and the plate calorimetry methodology ( $ G_0^{\text{pco}} $ ), where the gradient calorimetry methodology (G _0R ) served as a reference for determining G ₀. It was found that the peak of G _0R was at 1 p.m., with values that ranged between 60 and 100 W m^?2 and that the G ₀/Rn relation varied during the day with values close to zero in the early hours of the morning and close to 0.25 in the last hours of daylight. The $ G_0^{\text{s}} $ model presented the best performance, followed by the $ G_0^{\text{rn}} $ and $ G_0^{\text{fr}} $ models. The plate calorimetry methodology showed a similar behavior to that of the gradient calorimetry referential methodology.     

Palaeolimnological studies and ancient maps confirm secular climate fluctuations in Amazonia

Secular Amazon discharge oscillations were investigated comparing information from ancient cartography, satellite images, palaeovegetation, sediments, anthropology and climate, focusing on the evolution of Marajó Island in the Amazon estuary. Four phases were identified. (1) 800–1200 a.d.: Amazon discharge increased gradually and eastern Marajó was a vegetation-free tidal plain with energy oscillations. (2) 1200–1350 a.d. was a dry period with lower river discharges, lower energy, increasing water salinities and maximum mangrove extension, coinciding with the extinction of chiefdoms in Marajó. (3) 1350–1540 a.d.: Amazon discharge increased rapidly, inducing a dominance of freshwater vegetation, inundation of east Marajó and likely a regional rise of relative sea-level (RSL). (4) 1540–1750 a.d.: RSL decreased, coinciding with an El Niño-related intense drought ca. 1600 a.d. Emergence of eastern Marajó was rapid and completed in the eighteenth century, under RSL stabilization to current values. The approach used provided evidence of intermittent large changes in Amazon climate, and can facilitate the prediction of future regional dynamics.     

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet lowering on the Southern Hemisphere climate: modeling experiments mimicking the mid-Miocene

A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is used to study the influence of the Antarctica ice sheet in a configuration that mimics that of the early Miocene on the atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Based on different climate simulations of the present day (CTR) and conducted with distinct Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS-EXP), it is found that the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet topography (AIS) induces warming of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces the meridional thermal gradient. Consequently, the atmospheric transient low level eddy heat flux $[(\overline{v^{\prime}T^{\prime}})]$ and the eddy momentum flux $[(\overline{u^{\prime}v^{\prime}})]$ are reduced causing the reduced transport of heat from the mid-latitudes to the pole. The stationary flow and transient wave anomalies generate changes in the SSTs which modify the rate of deep water formation, strengthening the formation of the Antarctic Bottom Water. Substantial changes are predicted to occur in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport and a comparison between the total heat transport of the atmosphere-ocean system, as simulated by the AIS-EXP and the CTR runs, shows that the reduction of the AIS height leads to reduced Southern Hemisphere poleward and increased equatorward heat transport. These results are in agreement with reduced storm track activities and baroclinicity.     

Comment on “Kinetics of the reactions of Cl atoms with 2-buten-1-ol, 2-methyl-2-propen-1-ol, and 3-methyl-2-buten-1-ol as a function of temperature” by Rodriguez et al. (J. Atmos. Chem. (2008) 59:187–197)

The Arrhenius expressions and the data plotted in Figure 2 of Rodriguez et al. 2008 give rate coefficients of approximately 2?×?10^-8 cm³ molecule^-1 s^-1 at 255 K. Such values are approximately two orders of magnitude larger than expected from simple collision theory (Finlayson-Pitts and Pitts 1986). The rate coefficients reported at sub-ambient temperatures are substantially greater than the gas kinetic limit and are not physically plausible. The rate coefficients reported by Rodriguez et al. imply a long range attraction between the reactants which is not reasonable for reaction of neutral species such as chlorine atoms and unsaturated alcohols. We also note that the pre-exponential A factors (10^-23-10^-20) and activation energies (?15 kcal mol^-1) are not physically plausible. We conclude that there are large systematic errors in the study by Rodriguez et al. (Atmos Chem 59:187–197, 2008).     

Soil CO2 efflux, carbon dynamics, and change in thermal conditions from contrasting clear-cut sites during natural restoration and uncut larch forests in northeastern China

With the implementation of the Chinese Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) in 1998, over millions of hectares of forest in northeastern China have been protected through natural restoration (closure of hills). The impact of this program on the carbon budget of soil has not been evaluated until now. This paper presents results from a 6-year study of total CO₂ efflux from both soil and litter (R _total), CO₂ flux from soil (R _soil), soil organic matter (SOM), soil microbe density, and litter input and root biomass at an uncut larch (Larix gmelinii) forest and at a natural restoration site. The natural restoration area is a clear-cut site that was formerly part of a continuous portion of the uncut larch forest. Our objectives were to: (1) quantify the magnitude of CO₂ efflux from typical sites in northeastern China; (2) explore the changes in thermal conditions, SOM, and annual CO₂ flux during the 6-year natural restoration, and (3) evaluate the impact of NFCP on soil carbon processes. The annual R _soil at the clear-cut site (58.6–68.2 mol m^???2 year^???1) was 113.6–228.4% (mean 141.5%) higher than that at the uncut larch site (29.6–58.4 mol m^???2 year^???1). At the same time, annual CO₂ from litter at the clear-cut site (2.0–14.2 mol m^???2 year^???1) was only 23.5–84.5% (mean 52.5%) of that at the uncut larch site (5.4–16.8 mol m^???2 year^???1). SOM at the surface layer of the clear-cut site was 75% of that at the uncut larch site, but the soil microbial biomass (carbon) at the clear-cut site was much higher than that at the larch site (p?<?0.05). The percentage of bacteria, fungi and actinomycetes also were largely different between both sites. Natural restoration at the clear-cut site strongly affected thermal conditions. Although the soil temperature (T _soil) and effective accumulated $T_{\rm soil} > 0^{\circ}$ C at the clear-cut site was much higher, the temperature sensitivity (Q ₁₀) was much lower than that at the uncut larch site, and their differences decreased linearly from 2001 to 2006 (p?<?0.05). Moreover, Q ₁₀ at the clear-cut site significantly increased with the progress of natural restoration, which diminished the Q ₁₀ difference between the two sites (slope?=???0.2792, r ²?=?0.4744, p?<?0.05). These data imply that the NFCP natural restoration process has positively recovered the thermal condition of the clear-cut site to the level of uncut larch forest during the 6-year period. However, linear regression analysis showed that the 6-year natural restoration only slightly affected the annual soil CO₂ efflux and SOM at both sites, and also did not diminish the differences between the two sites (p?>?0.10), indicating that a much longer time is necessary to restore the soil carbon in the clear-cut site.     

SST and ice sheet impacts on the MIS–13 climate

As a first qualitative assessment tool, LOVECLIM has been used to investigate the interactions between insolation, ice sheets and the East Asian Monsoon at the Marine Isotopic Stage 13 (MIS–13) in work by Yin et?al. (Clim Past 4:79–90, 2008, Clim Past 5:229–243, 2009). The results are in need of validation with a more sophisticated model, which is done in this work with the ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model. As in the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity, LOVECLIM, ARPEGE shows that the northern hemispheric high insolation in summer leads to strong MIS–13 monsoon precipitation. Data from the Chinese Loess Plateau indicate that MIS–13 was locally a warm and humid period (Guo et?al. in Clim Past 5:21–31, 2009; Yin and Guo in Chin Sci Bull 51(2):213–220, 2006). This is confirmed by these General Circulation Model (GCM) results, where the MIS–13 climate is found to be hotter and more humid both in the presence and absence of any added ice sheets. LOVECLIM found that the combined effects of the ice sheets and their accompanying SSTs contribute to more precipitation in eastern China, whilst in ARPEGE the impact is significant in northeastern China. Nonetheless the results of ARPEGE confirm the counter-intuitive results of LOVECLIM where ice sheets contribute to enhance monsoon precipitation. This happens through a topography induced wave propagating through Eurasia with an ascending branch over northeastern China. A feature which is also seen in LOVECLIM. The SST forcing in ARPEGE results in a strong zonal temperature gradient between the North Atlantic and east Eurasia, which in turn triggers an atmospheric gravity wave. This wave induces a blocking Okhotskian high, preventing the northwards penetration of the Meiyu monsoon front. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST is found through the factor separation method, yielding an increase in the Meiyu precipitation, though a reduction of the Changma precipitation. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST play a non-negligible role and should be taken into consideration in GCM studies. Preliminary fully coupled AOGCM results presented here further substantiate the finding of stronger MIS–13 monsoons and a reinforcement from ice sheets. This work increases our understanding of the signals found in the paleo-observations and the dynamics of the complex East Asian Summer Monsoon.     

Increases of wet deposition at remote sites in Japan from 1991 to 2009

Temporal trends in wet deposition of major ions were explored at nationwide remote sites in Japan from April 1991 to March 2009 by using the seasonal Kendall slope estimator and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. For the trend analysis, datasets from eight remote sites (Rishiri, Echizenmisaki, Oki, Ogasawara, Shionomisaki, Goto, Yakushima, and Amami) were selected from the Japanese Acid Deposition Survey (JADS) conducted by the Ministry of the Environment. Deposition of H⁺ has been increasing at remote sites in Japan on a national scale. Significant (p????0.05) increases in H⁺ deposition were detected with changes of +3?C+9?%?year^?1 at seven sites, while insignificant increases were observed at one site. Depositions of non-sea salt (nss)-SO ₄ ^2? and NO ₃ ^? significantly increased at four and six sites, respectively, with changes of +1?C+3?%?year^?1. Significant increases in precipitation at four sites would have contributed to the increase in depositions of H⁺, nss-SO ₄ ^2? , and NO ₃ ^? . The emission trends of SO₂ and NO_x did not corresponded to the deposition trends of nss-SO ₄ ^2? and NO ₃ ^? . The different trends indicated that temporal variation of precipitation amount trend dominated the deposition trends.     

Climate and cultural history of the Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Quintana Roo, Mexico

We inferred the Holocene paleoclimate history of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, by studying stratigraphic variations in stable isotopes (δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C) and lithologic properties (organic matter and carbonate content) in sediment cores taken in 6.3 and 16.2 m of water from Lake Punta Laguna. We present a simple model to explain the lithologic and isotopic variations, and discuss the inferred paleoclimate history in terms of its relation to ancient Maya cultural development. We find evidence for lower lake level and drier climate at about the same time as each major discontinuity in Maya cultural history: Preclassic Abandonment (150–250 A.D.), Maya Hiatus (534 to 593 A.D.), Terminal Classic Collapse (750–1050 A.D.), and Postclassic Abandonment (mid-fifteenth century). Although these broad temporal correlations suggest climate played a role in Maya cultural evolution, chronological uncertainties preclude a detailed analysis of climate changes and archaeologically documented cultural transformations.     

Climate model simulation of anthropogenic influence on greenhouse-induced climate change (early agriculture to modern): the role of ocean feedbacks

We present further steps in our analysis of the early anthropogenic hypothesis (Ruddiman, Clim Change 61:261–293, 2003) that increased levels of greenhouse gases in the current interglacial, compared to lower levels in previous interglacials, were initiated by early agricultural activities, and that these increases caused a warming of climate long before the industrial era (～1750). These steps include updating observations of greenhouse gas and climate trends from earlier interglacials, reviewing recent estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture, and describing a simulation by a climate model with a dynamic ocean forced by the low levels of greenhouse gases typical of previous interglacials in order to gauge the magnitude of the climate change for an inferred (natural) low greenhouse gas level relative to a high present day level. We conduct two time slice (equilibrium) simulations using present day orbital forcing and two levels of greenhouse gas forcing: the estimated low (natural) levels of previous interglacials, and the high levels of the present (control). By comparing the former to the latter, we estimate how much colder the climate would be without the combined greenhouse gas forcing of the early agriculture era (inferred from differences between this interglacial and previous interglacials) and the industrial era (the period since ～1750). With the low greenhouse gas levels, the global average surface temperature is 2.7 K lower than present day—ranging from ～2 K lower in the tropics to 4–8 K lower in polar regions. These changes are large, and larger than those reported in a pre-industrial (～1750) simulation with this model, because the imposed low greenhouse gas levels (CH₄ = 450 ppb, CO₂ = 240 ppm) are lower than both pre-industrial (CH₄ = 760 ppb, CO₂ = 280 ppm) and modern control (CH₄ = 1,714 ppb, CO₂ = 355 ppm) values. The area of year-round snowcover is larger, as found in our previous simulations and some other modeling studies, indicating that a state of incipient glaciation would exist given the current configuration of earth’s orbit (reduced insolation in northern hemisphere summer) and the imposed low levels of greenhouse gases. We include comparisons of these snowcover maps with known locations of earlier glacial inception and with locations of twentieth century glaciers and ice caps. In two earlier studies, we used climate models consisting of atmosphere, land surface, and a shallow mixed-layer ocean (Ruddiman et al., Quat Sci Rev 25:1–10, 2005; Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008). Here, we replaced the mixed-layer ocean with a complete dynamic ocean. While the simulated climate of the atmosphere and the surface with this improved model configuration is similar to our earlier results (Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008), the added information from the full dynamical ocean is of particular interest. The global and vertically-averaged ocean temperature is 1.25 K lower, the area of sea ice is larger, and there is less upwelling in the Southern Ocean. From these results, we infer that natural ocean feedbacks could have amplified the greenhouse gas changes initiated by early agriculture and possibly account for an additional increment of CO₂ increase beyond that attributed directly to early agricultural, as proposed by Ruddiman (Rev Geophys 45:RG4001, 2007). However, a full test of the early anthropogenic hypothesis will require additional observations and simulations with models that include ocean and land carbon cycles and other refinements elaborated herein.     

A more accurate scheme for calculating Earth’s skin temperature

The theoretical framework of the vertical discretization of a ground column for calculating Earth’s skin temperature is presented. The suggested discretization is derived from the evenly heat-content discretization with the optimal effective thickness for layer-temperature simulation. For the same level number, the suggested discretization is more accurate in skin temperature as well as surface ground heat flux simulations than those used in some state-of-the-art models. A proposed scheme (“op(3,2,0)”) can reduce the normalized root–mean–square error (or RMSE/STD ratio) of the calculated surface ground heat flux of a cropland site significantly to 2% (or 0.9 W m^?2), from 11% (or 5 W m^?2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECMWF, from 19% (or 8 W m^?2) by a 5-layer scheme used in ECHAM, and from 74% (or 32 W m^?2) by a single-layer scheme used in the UCLA GCM. Better accuracy can be achieved by including more layers to the vertical discretization. Similar improvements are expected for other locations with different land types since the numerical error is inherited into the models for all the land types. The proposed scheme can be easily implemented into state-of-the-art climate models for the temperature simulation of snow, ice and soil.