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1.
Increases in climate variability, including extremes, may be expected with anthropogenic climate change, but some evidence is contrary. The issue is important because the consequences of variability can be critical for ecosystems. It has long been known and often rehearsed that ecological consequences of increased variability may be greater than those that result from expected changes in mean temperature and precipitation. Tree rings have been useful indicators of ecological response to climate change and used as proxies for climate variability; work in the Rocky Mountains, USA, has been particularly informative. Chronologies from two high elevation species ranging over 2500 km were analyzed for changes in variance through time. These spatially extensive and disaggregated tree ring records do not show a consistent pattern of change in variance over the past 500 or 100 years; heteroscedasticity has recently been greater. A lack of consistent response in growth over a period encompassing changes in mean climate indicates that mountain environments, with inconsistent trends in temperature and precipitation, may be too complex to act as sentinels.  相似文献   

2.
Globalclimatechangeanditspotentialinlliactsonhumanaffairshavebeenthesubjectofconsiderablediscussionwithintheaca相似文献   

3.
WRF模式作为一个中尺度气候模式,其分辨率从几米到几千公里,其自身的双向嵌套特征也为进行动力尺度下推提供了有力条件。本文利用WRF模式和传统的统计方法对研究区的气温进行尺度下推。首先,通过动力下推得到不同分辨率下的气温空间分布,并选取15个气象站点进行点对点验证,为了更明显观察不同尺度间的差异,对不同尺度的输出与ANUSPLIN插值结果进行比对,结果显示动力尺度下推中,分辨率越高模拟效果越好。其次,我们采用传统的统计下推方法,从27km下推到3km分辨率,并与WRF和ANUSPLIN插值在该尺度的结果进行对比分析,结果显示统计下推结果的趋势与动力下推的插值结果是一致的,但具有明显的马赛克效果,通过分析认为,这与统计方法的尺度下推只考虑高程信息的变化对气温的影响,而未考虑其他因素有关,如若在下推时加入更多的变量,如对温度有较大影响的坡度、坡向、土地覆被类型等因素,综合分析不同尺度之间的关系,会使下推结果有所改善。  相似文献   

4.
青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明:在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。  相似文献   

5.
An understanding 0f variati0ns in vegetati0n c0ver in resp0nse t0 climate change is critical f0r predicting and managing future terrestrial ec0system dynamics. Because scientists anticipate that m0untain ec0systems will be m0re sensitive t0 future climate change c0mpared t0 0thers, 0ur 0bjectives were t0 investigate the impacts 0f climate change 0n variati0n in vegetati0n c0ver in the Qilian M0untains (QLM), China, between 2000 and 2011. T0 acc0mplish this, we used linear regressi0n techniques 0n 250-m MODIS N0rmalized Difference Vegetati0n Index (NDVI) datasets and mete0r0l0gical rec0rds t0 determine spati0temp0ral variability in vegetati0n c0ver and climatic fact0rs (i.e. temperature and precipitati0n). Our results sh0wed that temperatures and precipitati0n have increased in this regi0n during 0ur study peri0d. In additi0n, we f0und that gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI was mainly distributed in the vertical z0ne fr0m 2,700 m t0 3,600 m in elevati0n. In the study regi0n, we 0bserved significant p0sitive and negative trends in vegetati0n c0ver in 26.71% and 2.27% 0f the vegetated areas. C0rrelati0n analyses indicated that rising precipitati0n fr0m May t0 August was resp0nsible f0r increased vegetati0n c0ver in areas with p0sitive trends in gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI. H0wever, there was n0 similar significant c0rrelati0n between gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI and precipitati0n in regi0ns where vegetati0n c0ver declined thr0ugh0ut 0ur study peri0d. Using spatial statistics, we f0und that veeetati0n c0ver freauentlvdeclined in areas within the 2,500-3,100 m vertical z0ne, where it has steep sl0pe, and is 0n the sunny side 0f m0untains. Here, the p0sitive influences 0f increasing precipitati0n c0uld n0t 0ffset the drier c0nditi0ns that 0ccurred thr0ugh warming trends. In c0ntrast, in higher elevati0n z0nes (3,900-4,500 m) 0n the shaded side 0f the m0untains, rising temperatures and increasing precipitati0n impr0ved c0nditi0ns f0r vegetati0n gr0wth. Increased precipitati0n als0 facilitated vegetati0n gr0wth in areas experiencing warming trends at l0wer elevati0ns (2,000-2,400 m) and 0n l0wer sl0pes where water was m0re easily c0nserved. We suggest that spatial differences in variati0n in vegetati0n as the result 0f climate change depend 0n l0cal m0isture and thermal c0nditi0ns, which are mainly c0ntr0lled by t0p0graphy (e.g. elevati0n, aspect, and sl0pe), and 0ther fact0rs, such as l0cal hydr0l0gy.  相似文献   

6.
受社会制度变迁和气候变化的影响,哈萨克斯坦是中亚地区生态退化和草畜矛盾问题最为突出的国家。近百年来,放牧方式的改变、农业开垦的占用、加之暖干化的气候变化影响,使得哈萨克斯坦各类草地生态系统变化的时空格局具有鲜明的特点。因此,研究哈萨克斯坦草地退化的过程与机制对认识中亚地区草地生态系统对气候变化和人类活动的响应尤为重要,也是对绿色丝路建设过程中区域生态可持续发展的科学支撑。土地覆被数据是生态变化研究的基础数据,但目前广泛使用的各套全球数据集间往往存在很大的差异,这会导致对生态变化成因的认知以及对未来变化的模型模拟产生更大的不确定性。本研究从对草地类型识别的定义、空间分布的一致性和空间分布差异的原因3方面对比5类全球土地覆被数据(UMD 1992-1993、MCD12Q1 2001、GLC 2000、CCI-LC 2000、Glob Cover 2005)中哈萨克斯坦草地分布的异同,以期为哈萨克斯坦的相关研究中土地覆被数据集的选择提供依据。研究结果表明:① 分类系统中对草地类型的界定、遥感数据源、辅助分类数据、分类方法、验证数据和方法的不同是5套数据草地资源分布差异的主要原因,其中MCD12Q1数据与其他4套数据的草地分布面积相差最大;② 5套数据中草地分布都重叠(完全一致)或四套数据重叠(高度一致)的区域仅占39.66%,主要位于哈萨克斯坦典型草原带和部分半荒漠草原带;围绕典型草地分布区,空间一致性由内向外逐渐降低。5套数据完全不一致区域占26.78%,主要位于荒漠草原带;③ CCI-LC2000数据与其他几类数据的重叠区域最高,有76%的草地与5套数据的完全一致以及高度一致区重叠;在分布不一致区域中,极易造成混淆的土地覆被类型主要为旱作耕地、灌溉耕地、耕地与自然植被镶嵌体、裸地以及灌丛。  相似文献   

7.
The Himalaya represents a vast mountain system and globally valued for its significant role in regulation of global as well as regional climate that has direct impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services crucial for sustenance of millions of people in Himalaya and adjoining areas. However, mountain regions worldwide are impacted by climate change and at the same time represent distinctive area for the assessment of climate related impacts. Climate change impacts in Himalayan region have its implications on food production, natural ecosystems, retreat of glacier, water supply, human and animal health and overall human well being. The livelihood and food security of the people inhabited in region largely depend on climate sensitive sectors i.e. agriculture, livestock, forestry and their interlinkages with each other, and has the potential to break down food and nutritional security as well as livelihood support systems. People’s perception and understanding of climate can be an important asset when it comes to adaptation to climate change impact; however it is not taken into consideration for the development of policy design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies by governments and other civil society organizations. The knowledge of local people and farming communities for rural landscape management and sustainable use of bioresources is gaining credence as a key strategy to cope up with the climate change. Therefore, the present study analyzes the indigenous knowledge of local people and their perceptions on climate change, and also documented adaptation approaches at local level in mountain ecosystem of western Himalaya. The study could be useful to policy makers to design appropriate adaptation strategies to cope up with the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

8.
The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature, precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods, the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high inc...  相似文献   

9.
We built a classification tree(CT) model to estimate climatic factors controlling the cold temperate coniferous forest(CTCF) distributions in Yunnan province and to predict its potential habitats under the current and future climates, using seven climate change scenarios, projected over the years of 2070-2099. The accurate CT model on CTCFs showed that minimum temperature of coldest month(TMW) was the overwhelmingly potent factor among the six climate variables. The areas of TMW-4.05 were suitable habitats of CTCF, and the areas of -1.35 TMW were non-habitats, where temperate conifer and broad-leaved mixed forests(TCBLFs) were distribute in lower elevation, bordering on the CTCF. Dominant species of Abies, Picea, and Larix in the CTCFs, are more tolerant to winter coldness than Tsuga and broad-leaved trees including deciduous broad-leaved Acer and Betula, evergreen broadleaved Cyclobalanopsis and Lithocarpus in TCBLFs. Winter coldness may actually limit the cool-side distributions of TCBLFs in the areas between -1.35°C and -4.05°C, and the warm-side distributions of CTCFs may be controlled by competition to the species of TCBLFs. Under future climate scenarios, the vulnerable area, where current potential(suitable + marginal) habitats(80,749 km~2) shift to nonhabitats, was predicted to decrease to 55.91%(45,053 km~2) of the current area. Inferring from the current vegetation distribution pattern, TCBLFs will replace declining CTCFs. Vulnerable areas predicted by models are important in determining priority of ecosystem conservation.  相似文献   

10.
The decomposition of plant litter is a key process in the flows of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. However, the response of litter decomposition to global climate warming in plateau wetlands remains largely unknown. In this study, we conducted a one-year litter decomposition experiment along an elevation gradient from 1891 m to 3260 m on the Yunnan Plateau of Southwest China, using different litter types to determine the influences of climate change, litter quality and microenvironment on the decomposition rate. The results showed that the average decomposition rate(K) increased from 0.608 to 1.152, and the temperature sensitivity of litter mass losses was approximately 4.98%/℃ along the declining elevation gradient. Based on a correlation analysis, N concentrations and C︰N ratios in the litter were the best predictors of the decomposition rate, with significantly positive and negative correlations, respectively. Additionally, the cumulative effects of decomposition were clearly observed in the mixtures of Scirpus tabernaemontani and Zizania caduciflora. Moreover, the litter decomposition rate in the water was higher than that in the sediment, especially in high-elevation areas where the microenvironment was significantly affected by temperature. These results suggest that future climate warming will have significant impacts on plateau wetlands, which have important functions in biogeochemical cycling in cold highland ecosystems.  相似文献   

11.
The alpine wetlands in QTP(Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau) have been profoundly impacted along with global climate changes. We employ satellite datasets and climate data to explore the relationships between alpine wetlands and climate changes based on remote sensing data. Results show that: 1) the wetland NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and GPP(Gross Primary Production) were more sensitive to air temperature than to precipitation rate. The wetland ET(evapotranspiration) across alpine wetlands was greatly correlated with precipitation rate. 2) Alpine wetlands responses to climate changes varied spatially and temporally due to different geographic environments, variety of wetland formation and human disturbances. 3) The vegetation responses of the Zoige wetland was the most noticeable and related to the temperature, while the GPP and NDVI of the Qiangtang Plateau and Gyaring-Ngoring Lake were significantly correlated with both temperature and precipitation. 4) ET in the Zoige wetland showed a significantly positive trend, while ET in Maidika wetland and the Qiangtang plateau showed a negative trend, implying wetland degradation in those two wetland regions. The complexities of the impacts of climate changes on alpine wetlands indicate the necessity of further study to understand and conserve alpine wetland ecosystems.  相似文献   

12.
Owing to a predicted rise in temperature, increase in precipitation and the escalating anthropogenic stresses, the Himalayan ecosystems are the most threatened non-polar regions of the world. In the past, there have been racing extinctions and range shifts of several life forms in this region, particularly of the plant species. Therefore, consistent qualitative and quantitative records on botanical baseline data on a regular basis are indispensable. The current communication attempts to provide a detailed account on the current state of knowledge and research gaps in floristic studies of Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya. Based on an extensive review of more than 140 studies in the form of scientific peer reviewed literature on floristics, medicinal and aromatic plants(MAPs), rare, endangered, threatened and endemic species and ethno-botany, it is revealed that the number of floristic studies in Himachal Pradesh have surged in the past years but studies pertaining to the lower plants remain meagre. Unfortunately, the remote valleys including micro-watersheds lying in the coldarid regions are relatively less studied in terms of available growing stock and population status of MAPs. Depleting traditional ethno-botanical knowledge has been the major concern and, many threatened MAPs need to be accessed globally following IUCN standards. Thus, documentation of the conservation status of key MAPs, setting aside conservation areas around viable populations of threatened species, developing germplasm banks of the priority MAPs and monitoring the impacts of climate change has been suggested.  相似文献   

13.
1982-2006年加纳植被覆盖时空变化及其气候影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
非洲陆地生态系统是气候变化的高敏感区,研究该区域植被覆盖变化及其控制因素,对深刻认识气候变化的影响具有重要意义。本文利用1982-2006年植被指数(NDVI)数据,研究位于非洲西部热带地区的加纳共和国植被覆盖的时空变化特征,结合同期的气温和降水量数据,分析其植被活动对气候变化的响应特征。研究结果表明,加纳86.4%的植被覆盖区NDVI在25 a间都呈现不同程度的增加趋势。20世纪80年代初和21世纪初这2个时期,NDVI值大于0.4的面积百分比呈增加趋势;NDVI值大于0.5的面积百分比从26%增加到38.2%;NDVI值在0.4-0.5之间的面积百分比从47.5%增加到51.9%。NDVI受降水量控制的区域占总区域面积的57.2%,而受气温控制的面积占总区域面积的42.8%。总的来看,加纳植被覆盖对降水量变化的敏感程度强于气温变化。  相似文献   

14.
Alpine ecosystems in permafrost region are extremely sensitive to climate changes.To determine spatial pattern variations in alpine meadow and alpine steppe biomass dynamics in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China,calibrated with historical datasets of above-ground biomass production within the permafrost region's two main ecosystems,an ecosystem-biomass model was developed by employing empirical spatialdistribution models of the study region's precipitation,air temperature and soil temperature.This model was then successfully used to simulate the spatio-temporal variations in annual alpine ecosystem biomass production under climate change.For a 0.44°C decade-1 rise in air temperature,the model predicted that the biomasses of alpine meadow and alpine steppe remained roughly the same if annual precipitation increased by 8 mm per decade-1,but the biomasses were decreased by 2.7% and 2.4%,respectively if precipitation was constant.For a 2.2°C decade-1 rise in air temperature coupled with a 12 mm decade-1 rise in precipitation,the model predicted that the biomass of alpine meadow was unchanged or slightly increased,while that of alpine steppe was increased by 5.2%.However,in the absence of any rise in precipitation,the model predicted 6.8% and 4.6% declines in alpine meadow and alpine steppe biomasses,respectively.The response of alpine steppe biomass to the rising air temperatures and precipitation was significantly lesser and greater,respectively than that of alpine meadow biomass.A better understanding of the difference in alpine ecosystem biomass production under climate change is greatly significant with respect to the influence of climate change on the carbon and water cycles in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.  相似文献   

15.
全球气候变化背景下,“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性直接影响着所在国家或地区的粮食安全问题。本文基于农田生态系统总初级生产力(GPP),使用定量的脆弱性评价方法,系统分析了“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性的空间分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:① “一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统脆弱性普遍处于较高的程度,77.1%的农田生态系统表现为中度和重度脆弱,且农田生态系统脆弱性呈现出明显的空间分异格局,中亚、西亚和蒙古脆弱性较高,中国、东南亚和南亚的脆弱性处于中等水平,俄罗斯、独联体和中东欧脆弱性较低;② 1980年以来“一带一路”沿线农田生态系统暖干化趋势明显,暖干化区域面积占64.06%,暖干化是“一带一路”沿线国家农田生态系统气候变化的主要特征;③ 农田生态系统脆弱性由低到高的气候变化区依次为暖湿区、冷湿区、暖干区、冷干区。暖湿区农田生态系统脆弱性最低,而冷干区农田生态系统脆弱性最高。气温和降水的变化及其耦合关系控制着农田生态系统脆弱性程度,其中降水变化趋势是影响农田生态系统脆弱性的重要因子。本研究为“一带一路”沿线国家应对和解决粮食安全问题,促进农业可持续发展,为加强各国之间的农业国际合作提供科学依据和有益参考。  相似文献   

16.
Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded: 1) The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2) The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3) The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul~re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.  相似文献   

17.
As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.  相似文献   

18.
长江三角洲城市化地区植被初级生产力的时空变化研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
城市化过程对植被初级生产具有重要影响。以往研究主要集中于城市用地扩张对植被初级生产力的直接影响分析,而较少关注其间接效果。本文以长江三角洲地区为例,分别从地区尺度和城市尺度分别分析了2000-2013年植被初级生产力的时空变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量及城市建成区绿化覆盖率的关系。研究表明:地区尺度上,2000-2013年长江三角洲植被初级生产力呈现不断增加,其中城市建成区植被初级生产力呈现显著增加的趋势(P<0.05);城市尺度上,城市建成区内植被初级生产力主要呈现增加的趋势,而其外围缓冲区内则与此相反。在当前气候变化背景下,这可能与城市建成区绿化覆盖率不断增加,及快速的城市扩张有关。  相似文献   

19.
快速城市化地区交通主干道对景观格局变化的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
交通主干道建设对两侧景观格局变化有着深远的影响,探索其影响机制对道路生态环境评价和区域可持续发展规划具有重要指导意义。本文以京沪高速公路(简称G2)为例,利用TM遥感影像,提取出1995、2000、2005和2010年长江三角洲地区土地利用/覆被图。同时,用缓冲区分析和景观生态学方法,分别计算不同时段和地域段G2缓冲带景观数量结构特征指数和景观格局指数变化率;并结合相关分析和非线性回归方法研究指数变化率与缓冲带距离的关系,据此判断G2对沿线景观格局变化的影响程度和范围。研究结果表明:(1)G2沿线地区景观格局变化程度与缓冲带距离呈现显著的负相关性,G2对景观格局变化的影响呈现明显的“轴带”规律;(2)G2对沿线景观格局变化的影响范围比自然生态脆弱区的道路建设更广,2000-2005年为6 km,2005-2010年扩大到9 km;(3)从整体来看,2005-2010年间的景观数量结构特征指数相关系数明显高于2000-2005年间,而景观格局指数相关系数则相反,“轴带”影响存在时间差异性;(4)从不同区域段来看,苏北和苏南段景观动态度相关系数均高于上海段,在城市化水平较低的地域段,“轴带”影响更加显著;(5)通过对比道路沿线地区不同时段、不同地域段的相关景观特征指数变化率,并结合缓冲带分析和数量统计方法,较好地评估了交通主干道对沿线景观格局变化的影响程度和范围。  相似文献   

20.
In arid regions, mountains fulfill important ecological and economic functions for the surrounding lowlands. In the scenario of global warming, mountain ecosystems change rapidly, especially in the arid region of northwestern China. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the historical records of climate on the northern slopes of the eastern Tianshan Mountains. A Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend and Sen's tests are employed to analyze the interannual changes and innerannual variability in temperature and precipitatiofi in the regions of low to high altitude. The present study finds that the largest increases in annual temperature are observed at stations in the low altitude regions. The significant increasing trends in temperature tend to occur mainly in late winter and early spring at stations from middle to high altitude, but in summer and autumn at stations of low altitudes. The increasing trends in annual precipitation are found from the middle to high altitude areas, but decreasing trends are found in the low altitude areas. The significant increasing trends in precipitation occur mostly in winter and earlier spring at stations from the middle to high altitudes, while the increasing and decreasing trend coexists at stations of low altitude with most of the significant trend changes occurring in March, June and August.  相似文献   

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