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1.
In this paper,the process of wind erosion on two kinds of soil from the agro-pastoral area of Inner Mongolia are studied using wind tunnel experiments,considering the wind speed,blown angle of wind and soil moisture content.The results showed that the modulus of soil wind erosion increases with an increase of wind speed.When the wind speed exceeds a critical value,the soil wind erosion suddenly increases.The critical speed for both kinds of soil is within the range of 7-8m·s-1.For a constant wind speed,the rate of soil wind erosion changes from increasing to falling at a critical soil slope.The critical slope of loam soil and sandy loam soil is 20° and 10°,respectively.Soil moisture content has a significant effect on wind erosion.Soil wind erosion of both soils decreases with an increase of the soil water content in two treatments,however,for treatment two,the increasing trends of wind erosion for two soils with the falling of soil water content are no significant,especially for the loam soil,and in the same soil water content,the wind erosion of two soils in treatment one is significantly higher than treatment two,this indicates reducing the disturbance of soil surface can evidently control the soil wind erosion.  相似文献   

2.
Glacier variations in the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges in China affect the livelihood of over one billion people who depend on water from the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus rivers originating in these areas. Based on the results of the present study and published literature, we found that the glaciers shrank 15.7% in area from 1963 to 2010 with an annual area change of -0.33%. The shrinkage generally decreased from peripheral mountain ranges to the interior of Tibet.The linear trends of annual air temperature and precipitation at 147 stations were 0.36°C(10a)~(-1) and 8.96 mm(10a)~(-1) respectively from 1961 to 2010. The shrinkage of glaciers was well correlated with the rising temperature and the spatial patterns of the shrinkage were influenced by other factors superimposed on the rising temperature such as glacier size, type, elevation, debris cover and precipitation.  相似文献   

3.
The three-river source region(TRSR), located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, suffers from serious freeze-thaw(FT) erosion in China. Considering the unique eco-environment and the driving factors of the FT process in the TRSR, we introduce the driving force factors of FT erosion(rainfall erosivity and wind field intensity during FT period) and precipitation during the FT period(indicating the phase-changed water content). The objective was to establish an improved evaluation method of FT erosion in the TRSR. The method has good applicability in the study region with an overall precision of 92%. The spatial and temporal changes of FT erosion from 2000 to 2015 are analyzed. Results show that FT erosion is widely distributed in the TRSR, with slight and mild erosion being the most widely distributed, followed by moderate erosion. Among the three sub-regions, the source region of the Yellow River has the slightest erosion intensity, whereas the erosion intensity of the source region of Yangtze River is the most severe. A slight improvement can be observed in the condition of FTerosion over the whole study region from 2000 to 2015. Vegetation coverage is the dominant factor affecting the intensity of FT erosion in the zones with sparse vegetation or bare land, whereas the climate factors play an important role in high vegetation coverage area. Slopes28° also have a significant effect on the intensity of FT erosion in the zones. The results can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and management of the soil FT erosion in the TRSR.  相似文献   

4.
Indus Deltaic Region (IDR) in Pakistan is an erosion vulnerable coast due to the high deep water wave energy. Livelihood of millions of people depends on the fisheries and mangrove forests in IDR. IDR consists of many creeks where Daboo is a major creek located at southeast of the largest city of Pakistan, Karachi. Unfortunately, there has been no detailed study to analyze the damages of sea water intrusion at a large temporal and spatial scale. Therefore, this study is designed to estimate the effects of sea water inundation based on changing sea water surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Sea surface salinity and SST data from two different surveys in Daboo creek during 1986 and 2010 are analyzed to estimate the damages and extent of sea water intrusion. Mean salinity has increased 33.33% whereas mean SST decreased 13.79% from 1987 to 2010. Spatio-temporal analysis of creek area using LANDSAT 5 Thematic mapper (TM) data for the years 1987 and 2010 shows significant amount of erosion at macro scale. Creek area has increased approximately 9.93% (260.86 m2 per year) which is roughly equal to 60 extensive sized shrimp farms. Further Land Use Land Cover (LULC) analyses for years 2001 and 2014 using LANDSAT 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) has indicated 42.3% decrease in cultivated land. Wet mud flats have spread out at the inner mouth of creek with enormous increase of 123.3%. Significant sea water intrusion has increased the area of barren land by 37.9%. This also resulted in overall decrease of 6.7% in area covered by mangroves. Therefore, this study recorded a significant evidence of sea water intrusion in IDR that has caused serious damages to community living in the area, economical losses. Additionally, it has also changed the environment by reducing creek biological productivity as reported by earlier studies over other regions of the world.  相似文献   

5.
Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.  相似文献   

6.
The Aral Sea was one of the largest lakes in the world before it started to shrink in the 1960s due to water withdrawal for agricultural irrigation.Precipitation decreased from 9.4 km3 in 1960 to 3.2 km3 in 2009,and annual river inflow into the Aral Sea decreased from 31.5 km3 in 1998 to 5.2 km3 in 2009.Comparison on the hydrological data of the Aral Sea between 1960 and 2009 showed the evaporation,water surface area,and water volume decreased by 90%,80%,and 88%,respectively.This study employs the observed values of water volume,precipitation,runoff,evaporation,and salinity to estimate water volume and salinity from 1960 to 2009,and the efficiency coefficients for predicted water volume and salinity are 0.975 and 0.974,respectively.Regression equations calculated from the observed data are used to predict precipitation,runoff,evaporation,and salinity from 2010 to 2021,and the results are then applied in the estimation of water volume and salinity.Our estimates suggest that salinity will increase to around 200 g/L and water volume will decrease to around 83 km3 in 2021.  相似文献   

7.
三北地区是我国重要的生态屏障,分析2000—2019年三北防护林体系建设工程(简称:三北工程)区植被恢复时空变化状况,厘定人类活动与气候要素对植被恢复的贡献,探究植被恢复对土壤风蚀影响,评估植被恢复潜力空间,可为三北防护林体系建设工程未来规划管理和科学施策提供参考。本文在选取植被覆盖度和植被净初级生产力表征植被恢复状况基础上,利用地面数据,结合模型模拟,定量评估了2000—2019年三北防护林体系建设工程区植被恢复程度及其对土壤风蚀的影响,并对植被恢复潜力进行探究。研究结果表明:① 2000—2019年植被恢复程度高、较高的面积,占总面积的35.29%和13.16%,主要分布在黄土高原区及北部区域和风沙区与东北华北平原农区的部分地区。人类活动与气候因素对植被恢复贡献率为10.45%和89.55%;② 土壤风蚀以轻度侵蚀和微度侵蚀为主,呈逐年下降趋势,剧烈侵蚀面积减少了66.45%,防风固沙服务得到进一步提升。植被恢复程度与土壤风蚀模数呈负相关关系,植被恢复程度较好有助于降低土壤风蚀模数;③ 三北工程区森林、草地和荒漠生态系统仍有8.16%的恢复潜力,内蒙古高原北部部分地区、哈顺戈壁北部和准噶尔盆地西北部及周边区域、黄土高原南部部分区域存在较大恢复潜力。  相似文献   

8.
贵州省不同地貌形态类型土壤侵蚀强度变化的定量分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
如何揭示不同地貌形态类型区土壤侵蚀强度变化,尤其是在生态环境比较脆弱的喀斯特区域,是地方生态保护战略实施亟需研究的关键问题之一。本文基于ALOS、ZY-3、GF-1、Landsat和GDEMV2遥感影像数据,以及2762条野外采样验证数据,参照国家在喀斯特与非喀斯特地区土壤侵蚀不同分类标准,实现10 m×10 m分辨率的贵州省2010年和2015年土壤侵蚀空间信息数据提取。进而结合贵州省地貌数据,通过构建贵州省土壤侵蚀的时空分析模型,实现对不同地貌形态类型,尤其是喀斯特区域和非喀斯特区域的土壤侵蚀强度的时空变化进行定量分析。结果显示:在2010—2015年,贵州省中—高海拔区域土壤侵蚀变化的动态度高于低海拔区域,土壤侵蚀强度总体呈下降趋势,下降总面积达6468.13 km2。喀斯特区域的土壤侵蚀变化广度高于非喀斯特区域的土壤侵蚀变化广度,而且变化趋势基本上是从高一级的侵蚀强度向低一级的侵蚀强度变化。高盆地、中山、高中山土壤侵蚀强度减弱趋势明显高于其他地貌类型的趋势,但高中山仍是喀斯特与非喀斯特区土壤侵蚀增强变化较为明显的区域。这说明自21世纪以来,在贵州喀斯特区域实施的生态修复工程和生态环境保护政策在土壤侵蚀防治过程中发挥了主导性作用,在今后贵州省进行土壤侵蚀防治的过程中,除了喀斯特区域的防治外,还需要同时注意非喀斯特区域的防治。  相似文献   

9.
High PM2.5 concentrations and frequent air pollution episodes during late autumn and winter in Jilin Province have attracted attention in recent years. To describe the spatial and temporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations and identify the decisive influencing factors, a large amount of continuous daily PM2.5 concentration data collected from 33 monitoring stations over 2-year period from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed. Meanwhile, the relationships were investigated between PM2.5 concentrations and the land cover, socioeconomic and meteorological factors from the macroscopic perspective using multiple linear regressions (MLR) approach. PM2.5 concentrations across Jilin Province averaged 49 μg/m3, nearly 1.5 times of the Chinese annual average standard, and exhibited seasonal patterns with generally higher levels during late autumn and over the long winter than the other seasons. Jilin Province could be divided into three kinds of sub-regions according to 2-year average PM2.5 concentration of each city. Most of the spatial variation in PM2.5 levels could be explained by forest land area, cultivated land area, urban greening rate, coal consumption and soot emissions of cement manufacturing. In addition, daily PM2.5 concentrations had negative correlation with daily precipitation and positive correlation with air pressure for each city, and the spread and dilution effect of wind speed on PM2.5 was more obvious at mountainous area in Jilin Province. These results indicated that coal consumption, cement manufacturing and straw burning were the most important emission sources for the high PM2.5 levels, while afforestation and urban greening could mitigate particulate air pollution. Meanwhile, the individual meteorological factors such as precipitation, air pressure, wind speed and temperature could influence local PM2.5 concentration indirectly.  相似文献   

10.
All characteristics of vegetation,runoff and sediment from 1960 to 2010 in the Xiliu Gully Watershed,which is a representative watershed in wind-water erosion crisscross region in the upper reaches of the Yellow River of China,have been analyzed in this study.Based on the remote sensing image data,and used multi-spectral interpretation method,the characteristics of vegetation variation in the Xiliu Gully Watershed have been analyzed.And the rules of precipitation,runoff and sediment's changes have been illuminated by using mathematical statistics method.What′s more,the influence mechanism of vegetation on runoff and sediment has been discussed by using the data obtained from artificial rainfall simulation test.The results showed that the main vegetation type was given priority to low coverage,and the area of the low vegetation coverage type was reducing year by year.On the country,the area of the high vegetation coverage type was gradually increasing.In a word,vegetation conditions had got better improved since 2000 when the watershed management project started.The average annual precipitation of the river basin also got slightly increase in 2000–2010.The average annual runoff reduced by 37.5%,and the average annual sediment reduced by 73.9% in the same period.The results of artificial rainfall simulation tests showed that the improvement of vegetation coverage could increase not only soil infiltration but also vegetation evapotranspiration,and then made the rainfall-induced runoff production decrease.Vegetation root system could increases the resistance ability of soil to erosion,and vegetation aboveground part could reduce raindrop kinetic energy and splash soil erosion.Therefore,with the increase of vegetation coverage,the rainfall-induced sediment could decrease.  相似文献   

11.
锡林郭勒盟为我国北方典型草原区,草地的退化与恢复影响生态系统的防风固沙服务功能。为了便于制定区域生态恢复的防治措施,实现草地生态系统的可持续发展与防治土壤风蚀危害,本文基于气象、遥感数据,运用RWEQ(Revised Wind Erosion Equation)模型,结合锡林郭勒盟的草地覆盖度变化对20世纪90年代以来的防风固沙服务功能的时空变化趋势进行了定量评估,并分析了草地覆盖度变化对防风固沙服务功能的影响。研究表明:锡林郭勒盟土壤风蚀以微度和轻度侵蚀为主,主要集中在植被盖度较高、降水相对较多,风场强度相对较低的东部、中部和南部地区;中度以上区域主要集中在西部的荒漠草原区与浑善达克沙地区,且侵蚀面积随侵蚀强度的增加而递减;防风固沙服务功能量的分布趋势与土壤风蚀模数的分布趋势基本一致;防风固沙服务功能保有率的分布特征与植被盖度的分布特征基本一致,表现为由西北到东南逐渐增加的趋势;在气候暖干化背景下,受京津风沙源治理工程实施的影响,以微度和轻度侵蚀为主的草地覆盖度减小区转为以微度和轻度为主的覆盖度增加区,轻度和中度以上侵蚀为主的草地覆盖度减小区转为基本持衡区;草地覆盖度的降低与增加对土壤风蚀的加剧和抑制作用明显,大部分地区的防风固沙服务功能保有率的下降(提升)与风蚀季节草地覆盖度的减小与提升呈显著正相关(r0.6,p0.05)。  相似文献   

12.
Aiming for the restoration of degraded ecosystems, many ecological engineering projects have been implemented around the world. This study investigates the ecological engineering project effectiveness on vegetation restoration in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region(BTSSR) from 2000 to 2010 based on the rain use efficiency(RUE) trend in relation to the land cover. More than half of the BTSSR experienced a vegetation productivity increase from 2000 to 2010, with the increasing intensity being sensitive to the indicators chosen. A clear tendency towards smaller increasing areas was shown when using the net primary productivity(NPP, 51.30%) instead of the accumulated normalized difference vegetation index(59.30%). The short-term variation in the precipitation and intra-seasonal precipitation distribution had a great impact on the remote sensing-based vegetation productivity. However, the residual trends method(RESTREND) effectively eliminated this correlation, while incorporating the variance and skewness of the precipitation distribution increased the models′ ability to explain the vegetation productivity variation. The RUE combined with land cover dynamics was valid for the effectiveness assessment of the ecological engineering projects on vegetation restoration. Particularly, the result based on growing season accumulated normalized difference vegetation index(ΣNDVI) residuals was the most effective, showing that 47.39% of the BTSSR experienced vegetation restoration from 2000 to 2010. The effectiveness of the ecological engineering projects differed for each subarea and was proportional to the strength of ecological engineering. The water erosion region dominated by woodland showed the best restoration, followed by the wind-water erosion crisscross regions, while the wind erosion regions dominated by grassland showed the worst effect. Seriously degraded regions still cover more area in the BTSSR than restored regions. Therefore, more future effort should be put in restoring degraded land.  相似文献   

13.
Gully erosion has caused soil degradation and even reduced soil productivity.However,only few studies on the effects of gully erosion and artificial controlling measures on soil degradation in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China are available.Thus,this study explores the relationships between gully erosion,gully filling and soil parameters.Two sets of soil samples were collected in the field at:(1) 72 sample points in the gully erosion study area,60 sample points in the ephemeral and classical gully erosion area(3,518 m2),12 sample points in the deposition zone(443 m2),(2)10 reference points along a slope unaffected by gully erosion representing the original situation before the gully was formed.All soil samples were analyzed for gravel content(GC),soil organic matter(SOM),total nitrogen(TN),available nitrogen(AN),available phosphorus(AP),and available potassium(AK).The soil property values on unaffected slope were fitted by the polynomial curves as the reference values in no gully erosion area.The interpolated soil property values in gully eroded study area were compared with these polynomial curves,respectively,and then,changes of soil property values were analyzed.Gully erosion caused an increase in GC and a decrease in SOM,TN,AN,AP and AK.The change of GC,SOM,TN,AN,AP,AK was 8.8%,-9.04 g kg-1,-0.92 g kg-1,-62.28 mg kg-1,-29.61 mg kg-1,-79.68 mg kg-1.The soil property values in the study area were below optimal values.Thus,we concluded that gully erosion and gully filling caused both on-site and off-site soil degradation.Soil degradation area was 0.65 % of the cultivated land.In addition,it was proved that gully filling were an improper soil and water conservation measure,which seems to exacerbate the problem.Thus,it is suggested that soil where soil is deep is moved to fill the gully,and then the area around the filled gullies should be covered by grass for preventing the formation and development of the gully.  相似文献   

14.
湿地是水陆交错的生态系统,往往受旱灾影响大,故此,对不同湖泊湿地受旱程度差异及其原因分析,可为减灾和湿地保护提供科学依据。本文利用2010年5月和2011年5月2个时相的HJ-1卫星CCD影像,提取洪湖和梁子湖2个时相的湿地水面积,结合统计资料和问卷调查数据,从湿地水面积及空间分布变化、湿地生态系统功能退化、湿地生态系统,对人类福祉影响3方面,分析了两湖湿地受旱程度的差异。并综合气象数据、统计资料和问卷调查数据,从气象因子、区域自然地理环境、湿地类型及特点、区域水文条件和湿地受保护程度5方面探讨两湖受旱程度差异的原因。结果表明:(1)2011年春旱期间,洪湖比梁子湖受旱程度更严重。旱灾时,洪湖水面积减少83.93 km2,减小比例为26%,梁子湖水面积减少13.02 km2,减小比例为4%;两湖的涵养水源、保护生物多样性、物质生产和水质净化功能均受到损害,洪湖较梁子湖更严重;受旱灾影响,洪湖湿地对人类福祉的消极影响大于梁子湖。(2)降雨量、气温和风速等气象因素、湖泊湿地成因类型、区域自然地理环境和水文条件是影响两湖受旱程度差异的主要因素,另外,湿地保护措施的差异及效果也会造成两湖受旱程度不同。  相似文献   

15.
This paper presents a study on drag coefficients under typhoon wind forcing based on observations and numerical experiments. The friction velocity and wind speed are measured at a marine observation platform in the South China Sea. Three typhoons: SOULIK(2013), TRAMI(2013) and FITOW(2013) are observed at a buoy station in the northeast sea area of Pingtan Island. A new parameterization is formulated for the wind drag coefficient as a function of wind speed. It is found that the drag coefficient(Cd) increases linearly with the slope of 0.083′10~(-3) for wind speed less than 24 m s~(-1). To investigate the drag coefficient under higher wind conditions, three numerical experiments are implemented for these three typhoons using SWAN wave model. The wind input data are objective reanalysis datasets, which are assimilated with many sources and provided every six hours with the resolution of 0.125?×0.125?. The numerical simulation results show a good agreement with wave observation data under typhoon wind forcing. The results indicate that the drag coefficient levels off with the linear slope of 0.012′10~(-3) for higher wind speeds(less than 34 m s~(-1)) and the new parameterization improvese the simulation accuracy compared with the Wu(1982) default used in SWAN.  相似文献   

16.
中国北方典型农牧交错区的土壤风蚀危险度研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
土壤风蚀及其引发的土地退化、沙化和沙尘暴是中国北方严重的环境问题之一。通过定量评估中国北方典型农牧交错地区土壤风蚀危险程度,可以为区域生态环境的保护和生态修复提供科学支撑。本文基于文献调研、兼顾数据的可获得性,建立了包括风场强度、植被覆盖率、地形起伏度、土壤干燥度等因子在内的风蚀危险程度评价指标体系。同时,依据遥感参数反演和地面气象观测数据,在地理信息系统技术支持下,形成了上述因子的空间分布数据。另外,利用层次分析方法,构建土壤风蚀危险度评价模型,得到研究区土壤风蚀危险度的空间分布。最后,结合研究区土地利用数据,探讨了风蚀危险度空间分布格局的自然环境和土地利用背景。研究表明:研究区土壤风蚀极险型区域面积为1.47×104km2,强险型区域面积为6.09×104km2,危险型区域面积为3.47×104km2,轻险型区域面积为3.45×104km2,无险型区域面积为2.19×104km2。本区土壤风蚀危险度呈现出从东南到西北逐渐增强的趋势,这与区域的植被、气候,以及土地利用的空间格局具有内在的有机联系。  相似文献   

17.
Due to high intensity agricultural exploitation since the middle of the 20 th century, farmland gullies have become a pervasive form of water erosion in Northeast China. Yet few researches are concentrated on how topography and land use affect long-term gully development in this region. In this study, gully distribution in a village with an area of 24.2 km~2 in the central Mollisols area of Northeast China in different times were compared by Aerial photography(1968), Quickbird image(2009) and field survey, and factors affecting gully development including land use and topography were analyzed. The results showed that the total gully number decreased from 104 to 69, while occupying area rose from 34.8 ha to 78.4 ha from 1968 to 2009. Fundamental gully distribution had been formed by 1968 as most of 2009′s gullies were evolved from 1968′s gullies′ merge and width expansion process, and new gullies those initiated after 1968 occupied only 7% of total gully area in 2009. Gully area increasing ratio in grassland was the highest and that in forestland was the lowest. The threshold catchment area between simple and complex gully development was around 15 ha to 25 ha. This threshold value sets apart catchment areas that will develop simple or complex gullies in areas with similar environmental conditions. Gully control measurements were urgent because if appropriate gully control implements would not be applied, present gully erosion crisis could be doubled within 50 years.  相似文献   

18.
选取广东省86个气象观测站的观测资料,采用气候趋势分析和通径分析方法,对广东省1961~2003年小型蒸发皿蒸发量及其相关气象影响因子进行了分析。结果表明:虽然汛期广东省整体平均蒸发量呈下降趋势,前汛期、后汛期线性倾向率分别为-15.86 mm/10a和-13.79 mm/10a;但变化趋势在广东省内空间分布并不均匀,前汛期、后汛期粤东、中部部分地区分别有16、12个站呈上升趋势;前汛期6种气象因子单独对蒸发的决定程度按大小依次为:日照时数>气温>风速>降水>饱和差>气温日较差,后汛期6种气象因子单独对蒸发的决定程度按大小依次为:日照时数>降水>饱和差>风速>气温>气温日较差,整个汛期日照时数与其它各要素的协同作用对蒸发皿蒸发量的决定作用都很大。日照时数和风速总体上的下降是导致广东省汛期蒸发皿蒸发量逐年减少的重要原因。  相似文献   

19.
新疆吐鲁番地区的土遗址数量较多,且具有重要历史文化价值,故对土遗址及其环境的时空变化研究具有重要意义。目前,对大型土遗址的发现保护多利用考古、实地调查和空间信息技术等方法。鉴此,本文分析了吐鲁番地区土遗址及其内外部环境的变化。研究结果表明,20世纪60年代至2010年间该区域土遗址本体及其内部环境发生了较大变化,其主要影响因素是病害发育和人为破坏。病害主要为裂隙与坍塌、风害、酥碱病害、水蚀、表层剥落、生物病害等,其中,普遍的病害是裂隙与坍塌和风害。1990-2010年,研究区土遗址外部地表环境发生了较大变化,耕地和居民地明显增加,草地和未利用地明显减少,尤其是交河故城和高昌故城这2个世界文化遗产区域发生的变化更明显。土遗址周围的人类活动强度在增加,绿洲内部土遗址的外部环境较绿洲边缘或外部更加剧烈;内部的土遗址更容易受到人类活动的影响,而外部环境变化的主要影响因素是人类的耕地和居民地开发活动。  相似文献   

20.
1 Introduction As a result of persistent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the 1950s, global and regional climate features, such as temperature and precipitation, have ob- viously changed (Yu et al., 2002). The General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide potential climate scenarios by studying the effects of carbon dioxide on the temperature. Tickell (1993) predicted that the mean temperature will increase by 1℃ till the year 2050 and by 3℃ at the end of the 22th century. S…  相似文献   

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