青藏高原冰湖溃决灾害隐患识别、发育规律及危险性评价

青藏高原是全球冰湖溃决灾害发生最频繁的区域之一,冰湖溃决对人类及工程建设安全造成严重威胁。以2015—2018年Landsat 8 OLI＿TIRS等遥感影像及数据为基础,对青藏高原40000余条冰川10 km范围内且面积大于900 m²的冰湖进行了遥感解译,分析了冰湖分布与发育特征,建立了冰湖溃决隐患的识别指标体系,利用突变级数法(CPM)对隐患点进行了危险性分级评价。结果表明：(1)青藏高原发育冰湖16481处,海拔分布在5000～5500 m之间的冰湖占总量的43.69%;面积集中在100～500 km²之间的占总量的47.40%;行政分布上主要分布在西藏自治区,有12664个,占总量的76.84%;流域上主要分布在雅鲁藏布江流域,有8321个,占总量的50.49%。(2)识别出冰湖灾害隐患点369个,其中低危险点126个,中危险点177个,高危险点66个。(3)冰湖溃决隐患点面积多为0.1～0.2 km²;海拔主要分布在5000～5500 m之间;与母冰川距离大多小于100 m;冰碛坝宽度一般小于300 m,背水...     

强震区叠溪松坪沟景区地质灾害发育分布规律

以强震区叠溪松坪沟景区为研究范围区,通过多元信息手段调查,共发现地质灾害107处,其中崩塌82处,滑坡25处。地质灾害的发育分布的影响因素包括:原始坡度、高程、坡体结构、水系距离及断裂带距离等。灾害发育分布在坡度30°～50°数量多且规模大;高程2200～3400 m灾害发育数量多,尤其是高程2600～3000 m占总量的42.5%,规模则在高程为3400~3600 m较大;斜向坡体发育地质灾害数量及规模均较大,其次为顺向坡和反倾坡;水系对灾害一般最大影响距离为4.0 km,其中0～1.0 km范围内灾害发育,且规模较大;地质灾害沿地震断裂带呈次“串珠状”分布,0～2.0 km范围内最为显著发育,且符合一定的拟合规律。通过统计归纳分析,厘定了强震区叠溪松坪沟景区范围内地质灾害的发育的主要影响因素,系统的总结了其分布规律,为研究区内的基础建设以及防灾减灾提供了科学依据和参考。     

九寨沟地震前后次生地质灾害分布特征分析

为研究九寨沟地震前后次生地质灾害分布特征,本文应用Arcgis软件平台,对研究区震前472处和震后新增272处地质灾害的分布特征进行统计分析,得出以下结论:(1)80.88%震后新增灾害点分布在距震中30km范围内,灾害点密度随震中距的增大而减小。67.28%新增灾害点分布在烈度Ⅷ度及以上区域,灾害点密度随地震烈度的降低而减小。(2)地震前后灾害点均集中分布在距河流300m范围内,各占总数的79.45%和81.25%,灾害点数量与密度均随着与河流距离的增加而显著降低。(3)地震前后在高程2 000～2 600m灾害点数量最多,高程2 600～3 200m次之。(4)地震前后分布在15°～45°坡度范围内灾害点数量分别占总数的82.2%和84.2%。(5)滑坡、崩塌等次生地质灾害为泥石流发育提供较好的物源条件,在未来3～5a雨季应切实做好泥石流防治工作。     

高分辨率遥感技术在地质灾害调查与成灾规律分析中的应用——以攀西米易地区为例

攀西地区山高谷深,地形切割强烈,历来是地质灾害的重灾区和易发区。为摸清地质灾害家底,查明地质灾害分布与发育规律,排查出可能存在的地质灾害隐患,支撑灾害现场核查与工程防治,利用高分辨率遥感技术(简称高分遥感技术)对四川攀西米易地区开展地质灾害遥感调查与现场验证,共确定有明显威胁对象的地质灾害隐患点106处,主要以崩塌、滑坡为主,其次为泥石流。结合调查结果,开展隐患点成灾规律分析,结果表明: 地质灾害主要发育于安宁河及其支流沿岸一线,沿省道S214线及米普路、麻楠路、二滩库区环湖路段呈带状分布,主要分布于断层两侧500 m范围内,达到51处,占遥感调查隐患点总数的35.8%; 2019年5—9月共发生地质灾害104处,占全年发生地质灾害总数的98.11%; 区域西北部和中北部地质灾害发育程度相对较低。应用结果表明,利用高分遥感技术能够有效查明地质灾害隐患分布与成灾规律,对服务基层防灾减灾工作,减轻灾害损失,提升地质灾害科技水平和防灾能力具有重要意义。     

基于GIS的滑坡地质灾害地貌因素分析

基于ArcGIS平台, 利用SRTM-DEM数据资料, 选择青藏高原东缘及四川盆地为研究区, 提取了区内地形起伏度和坡度等地貌参数, 统计了区内2319个滑坡点的高程, 初步建立了地形地貌与滑坡灾害点分布之间的对应关系。结果表明, 研究区滑坡灾害点及其高程分布具有明显的区域规律性, 滑坡灾害点发生的高程为400~800m和1400~2000m, 这两个区间占研究区所有滑坡总数的40%和28%;滑坡所对应的地形起伏度主要在300~600m, 占研究区所有滑坡总数的48.68%;滑坡灾害发生的地形坡度为10°~25°, 占研究区所有滑坡总数的44.70%。研究发现, 这些地区对应的地貌类型主要是深切的"V"型河谷和山谷地貌。此外, 从断裂活动等方面分析了滑坡形成的动力机制。      

印度查莫利“2·7”冰岩山崩堵江溃决洪水灾害链研究

2021年2月7日,印度查莫利北部里希恒河发生高位冰岩山崩堵江溃决洪水灾害链,造成下游20 km外的水电站和桥梁设施破坏,死亡、失踪人口近200人。文章运用多期高分辨率遥感影像,对比分析了印度查莫利里希恒河流域高位冰岩山崩灾害发生前后滑源区、堆积区变化特征,初步探讨了山崩的运动过程。结果显示:2013年以前,崩滑体蠕滑位移量较小,其表面冰雪覆盖层裂缝发育不明显;2013—2017年,崩滑体蠕滑位移量显著增加,冰雪覆盖层可见多达62处大小不一的冰裂缝,最长513 m;2021年2月5日卫星影像显示这些冰裂缝已发生连接、贯通,最大宽度为15 m,并于2月7日发生失稳、破坏。据滑后遥感影像,该崩滑体由4组不同方向的大型结构面切割而成,面积约0.32 km~2,平均厚度约为70 m,体积约23×10~6 m~3。崩滑体失稳、解体后以碎屑流沿沟谷向下高速运动,受地形拦挡,部分碎屑颗粒在地形急变带堆积且形成堰塞坝。堰塞坝体溃决后,形成山洪灾害。     

西藏嘉黎吉翁错冰湖溃决机制特征

正在全球气候变暖背景下,青藏高原及周边地区的冰川整体处于快速退缩状态,导致冰川的不稳定性增加,冰川灾害的风险程度加剧,如冰崩、冰川跃动、冰湖溃决洪水和冰川泥石流等灾害事件频发(邬光剑等,2019)。据不完全统计,自20世纪以来,西藏冰湖溃决灾害呈增加趋势,已有33个冰湖前后发生37次溃决,主要分布于海洋性和大陆性冰川的过渡带,以及帕隆藏布流域的海洋性冰川地带,溃决机制也呈多样化发展(刘建康等,2019)。     

G219阿克赛钦段地质灾害分布特征及易发性评价

G219阿克赛钦段沿线地形地貌多样,地质条件复杂,道路运行严重受崩滑流等地质灾害影响。结合现场调查和遥感解译生成的灾害数据库,分析阿克赛钦段沿线崩滑流灾害分布特征。利用频率比法选取坡度、坡向、高程、工程地质岩组、PGA、距断层距离、距河流距离、距公路距离等8个影响因子,进行崩滑流灾害易发性评价。研究发现：(1)阿克赛钦段崩滑流灾害主要分布在赛图拉-大红柳滩一带,泥石流灾害主要发育在康西瓦断裂附近河谷区域,崩滑灾害基本分布在切坡等扰动活动强烈的康西瓦-大红柳滩一带;(2)研究区地质灾害极高、高易发区主要分布在泉水沟以北河谷及六三五道班南部部分区域,面积分别占研究区的7.99%、21.08%,各有63.71%、23.56%的总历史灾害面积占比;(3)基于频率比法的易发性评价模型AUC值为0.854,评价结果可靠。研究方法及结果可为G219阿克赛钦段防灾减灾工作提供理论依据与指导。     

中国喜马拉雅山地区冰川1999—2015年期间动态变化遥感调查

根据完成的青藏地区基于1999年ETM、2014/2015年GF-1/OLI两期遥感调查的冰川编目数据,对1999-2015年期间中国喜马拉雅山地区的冰川变化进行分析。结果显示,从1999-2015年间,中国喜马拉雅山地区的冰川普遍退缩,冰川数量减少了85条,面积减少了42.00 km^2,冰储量减少了2.385 km^3,分别占其减少变化率的1.53%、0.67%和0.50%。沿山脉由东向西冰川变化不一,其中东段的冰川数量减少多,西段的冰川面积和冰储量减少多,并且东段的数量减少变化率远大于西段,西段的面积、冰储量减少变化率大于东段,中段的冰川相对稳定。喜马拉雅山地区的冰川在北、北东和东等方向上发生退缩,且减少量依次减少,其中东向的数量减少变化率最大,北东向的面积减少变化率最大,而北向的减少变化率最小。冰川在不同坡度退缩程度不一,在坡度10°~15°范围冰川面积退缩最多、变化率最大,在坡度30°~35°范围数量减少最多、变化率最大。冰川在高程5 500~6 000 m区间数量和面积退缩量最多,其次是在高程5 000~5 500 m区间;在高程3 500~4 000 m区间的退缩变化率最大,而在高程6 000~6 500 m区间的退缩变化率最小。不同流域中冰川变化差异较大,在雅鲁藏布江流域(5O2)冰川数量和面积减少最多,其次是朗钦藏布等流域(5Q2)和朋曲等流域(5O1),而扎日南木措流域(5Z3)的冰川减少量最小,但是变化率最大。总之,小冰川的大规模退缩或者消失,较大冰川也普遍退缩,是喜马拉雅山地区冰川变化的特点。喜马拉雅山地区冰川退缩与气候变化关系密切。根据多年年平均气温和年降水量分析,自1961年以来,该地区年平均气温显著上升,年降水量有增有减,但气温上升、降水量减少是导致冰川消融原因之一。     

印度查莫利“2·7”冰岩山崩堵江溃决洪水灾害链研究

2021年2月7日,印度查莫利北部里希恒河发生高位冰岩山崩堵江溃决洪水灾害链,造成下游20 km外的水电站和桥梁设施破坏,死亡、失踪人口近200人。文章运用多期高分辨率遥感影像,对比分析了印度查莫利里希恒河流域高位冰岩山崩灾害发生前后滑源区、堆积区变化特征,初步探讨了山崩的运动过程。结果显示:2013年以前,崩滑体蠕滑位移量较小,其表面冰雪覆盖层裂缝发育不明显;2013—2017年,崩滑体蠕滑位移量显著增加,冰雪覆盖层可见多达62处大小不一的冰裂缝,最长513 m;2021年2月5日卫星影像显示这些冰裂缝已发生连接、贯通,最大宽度为15 m,并于2月7日发生失稳、破坏。据滑后遥感影像,该崩滑体由4组不同方向的大型结构面切割而成,面积约0.32 km2,平均厚度约为70 m,体积约23×106 m3。崩滑体失稳、解体后以碎屑流沿沟谷向下高速运动,受地形拦挡,部分碎屑颗粒在地形急变带堆积且形成堰塞坝。堰塞坝体溃决后,形成山洪灾害。     

阿克苏河洪水类型及其形成的500hPa环流特征

利用阿克苏河两条支流和干流的月径流量以及年最大洪峰流量资料,分析了阿克苏河的洪水特征.阿克苏河西支托什干河主汛期在5~8月,北支库玛拉克河与阿克苏河干流的主汛期在7~8月,库玛拉克河的洪水对阿克苏河干流洪水作用更大.托什干河洪水以融雪型、融雪叠加暴雨型两种类型为主,库玛拉克河洪水以融雪(冰)型、融雪(冰)叠加冰湖溃坝型为主,阿克苏河干流洪水以混合型最多见,其次是融雪(冰)型.年最大流量排名前15位的洪水中,阿克苏河两条支流与干流在1987年以后分别出现了7~9a,在此基础上分析归纳了三类形成阿克苏河流域主要洪水的500hPa环流模型.阿克苏河流域主汛期形成混合型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:新疆高压脊稳定在天山山区中部及以东地区,5880gpm等高线北界稳定在天山上空或天山以北,西部边界在帕米尔高原以东的南疆盆地上空,中亚地区为副热带低槽活动区,环流形势相对稳定.主汛期形成融雪(冰)型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:新疆高压脊向北发展且稳定维持3d以上,5880gpm等高线北界稳定在天山以北,西部边界在帕米尔高原以西.春季形成融雪型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:帕米尔高原及西天山受新疆高压脊控制,稳定维持3d以上,高压脊内5840gpm等高线北边界维持在40°N以北.     

冰湖溃决泥石流的形成、演化与减灾对策

本文分析了主要由冰滑坡和冰崩入湖导致的冰湖溃决的机理和条件.进而,从气候条件、水文条件、终碛堤、冰湖规模、冰滑坡、沟床特征和固体物质补给等方面分析了冰湖溃决泥石流的形成条件和特点,归纳出冰湖溃决泥石流沿程演化的6种模式:溃决洪水-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流和溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流-洪水.针对冰湖溃决泥石流突发性强、频度低、洪峰高、流量大、流量过程暴涨暴落、破坏力强和灾害波及范围广等特点,提出了7点减灾对策.     

The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

金沙江“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用和沉积特征

古堰塞湖溃决洪水事件的重建是当前地学研究的热点问题之一,寻找足够的可参考的现代溃决洪水事件案例是顺利开展这项工作的基础。2018年11月13日发生在金沙江干流的白格堰塞湖超万年一遇的溃决洪水事件(学术界称之为“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件)就是一个难得的样本。这次溃决事件发生在枯水期,洪峰完全由溃决洪水产生,没有叠加其他来源,对评估流域地貌和沉积体系对堰塞溃决事件的响应有很好的参考价值。本文以溃决洪水事件受灾最为严重的奔子栏—石鼓段为研究区,通过详细的野外调查和初步的水力学估算发现“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用主要表现为洪水淹没区的岸坡塌岸和沉积物堆积,未发现明显的基岩侵蚀。沉积物主要由分选良好的具水平纹层的砂组成。受金沙江较低的河床比降影响,洪水产生的基底剪切应力较弱在27~142 N/m²,不能悬浮和搬运直径5 cm以上的砾石,也不能产生明显的磨蚀和冲(撞)击作用。在发生塌岸的部分段落,洪水沉积物中有砾石坠入,甚至会出现类似浊流沉积的层序。这些现象的发现对深入理解堰塞湖溃决洪水的复杂地貌过程和沉积特征有重要参考意义。     

Refining the pattern and style of Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat: palaeogeography,evolution and implications of lateglacial ice‐dammed lake systems on the southern Fraser Plateau,British Columbia,Canada

Decay of the last Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) near its geographical centre has been conceptualized as being dominated by passive downwasting (stagnation), in part because of the lack of large recessional moraines. Yet, multiple lines of evidence, including reconstructions of glacio‐isostatic rebound from palaeoglacial lake shoreline deformation suggest a sloping ice surface and a more systematic pattern of ice‐margin retreat. Here we reconstructed ice‐marginal lake evolution across the subdued topography of the southern Fraser Plateau in order to elucidate the pattern and style of lateglacial CIS decay. Lake stage extent was reconstructed using primary and secondary palaeo‐water‐plane indicators: deltas, spillways, ice‐marginal channels, subaqueous fans and lake‐bottom sediments identified from aerial photograph and digital elevation model interpretation combined with field observations of geomorphology and sedimentology, and ground‐penetrating radar surveys. Ice‐contact indicators, such as ice‐marginal channels, and grounding‐line moraines were used to refine and constrain ice‐margin positions. The results show that ice‐dammed lakes were extensive (average 27 km²; max. 116 km²) and relatively shallow (average 18 m). Within basins successive lake stages appear to have evolved by expansion, decanting or drainage (glacial lake outburst flood, outburst flood or lake maintenance) from southeast to northwest, implicating a systematic northwestward retreating ice margin (rather than chaotic stagnation) back toward the Coast Mountains, similar in style and pattern to that proposed for the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. This pattern is confirmed by cross‐cutting drainage networks between lake basins and is in agreement with numerical models of North American ice‐sheet retreat and recent hypotheses on lateglacial CIS reorganization during decay. Reconstructed lake systems are dynamic and transitory and probably had significant effects on the dynamics of ice‐marginal retreat, the importance of which is currently being recognized in the modern context of the Greenland Ice Sheet, where >35% of meltwater streams from land‐terminating portions of the ice sheet end in ice‐contact lakes.     

Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake

The Wenchuan earthquake caused numerous landslides and avalanches, which initiated causal chains of geological and ecological disasters. Field investigations and field experiments were performed in the earthquake area in 2008 and 2009 to study the disaster chains. Four types of disaster chains have been identified and seven cases have been studied. In the disaster chains, each episode was caused by the previous episode, or the causal episode. In the first chain, landslide created a quake lake, which was followed by landslide dam failure flood and very intensive fluvial process. The last episode of the chain was loss of habitats and destruction of aquatic biocommunities. The Tangjiashan and Huoshigou landslides initiated such a type of disaster chain. The second chain consisted of landslide, drainage system burying, debris flows, and development of new drainage system and intensive fluvial process. The Wenjiagou landslide initiated such a type of disaster chain. The third chain consisted of avalanches, grain erosion (unusual erosion of bare rocks due to insolation and temperature change), slope debris flows, and flying stones. Many such disaster chain events occurred on the mountains by the Minjiang River section from Yingxiu to Wenchuan. The fourth chain has only two episodes: avalanches during the earthquake occurring on elevation between 100 and 800 m from the riverbed, and rock falls or new avalanches due to increased slope angle of high mountains (400–1,500 m from the riverbed). The Chediguan bridge was broken by such avalanches in July 2009, in which six were killed and more than 20 were injured. For all the disaster chains, the volume of mass movement in each episode was much less than the causal episode (previous episode). In other words, there was an attenuation along the causal chains. The attenuation factor is defined as the ratio of the volume of mass movement or affected area in one episode of a chain to the volume or affected area in the causal episode. The study concluded that the attenuation factor ranges from 0.02 to 0.3. Macroinvertebrates were used as indicator species to evaluate the ecological effect of the disaster chains. The number of species was greatly reduced by the causal chains, although the river section was not directly affected by landslides.     

Threat of glacial lake outburst flood to Tehsil Gupis from Khukush Lake, District Ghizer, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a powerful natural phenomenon that is very active in the Karakoram and Himalayas. This paper presents a case study from Gupis Tehsil in northern areas of Pakistan that is exposed to GLOFs from nine different glacial lakes in its upper catchment areas. Khukush Lake being the largest of all the glacial lakes has been studied and a flood attenuation model has been created for the whole Gupis Tehsil. This lake covers almost 2.2 km² of surface area, and its calculated volume is 2.6 × 10⁴ m³. In case of its outburst, the peak flow discharge is calculated to be 7,642 m³/s. The catchment area which contributes water and debris to the lake is 170 km². This lake is dammed by a glacial moraine, which is not strong enough to sustain the pressure for a longer period of time. Other factors that are reducing the reliability of the dam are the secondary hazards which are in direct contact with the lake, and in case of their reactivation, they can put severe impacts on the dam. There are eight potential sites of the snow avalanche activity where debris along with snow may fall directly into the lake producing a strong wave. This strong wave of water will increase the pressure on the dam and ultimately will increase the probability for its outburst. The presense of water springs towards the downstream side of the natural dam also indicate the presence of hidden channels passing through the dam which may weaken the shear strength of the dam. Almost 24 villages settled along either sides of the Gupis River are critically studied for the expected flood from Khukush Lake. With few exceptions, almost 20–25 % area of all the villages will be affected from this flood.     

Continental/Cordilleran ice interactions: a dominant cause of westward super-elevation of the last glacial maximum continental ice limit in southwestern Alberta, Canada

In southwestern Alberta, Canada, a westward-rising last-glacial-maximum continental ice limit has been identified. This limit is defined by the upper elevation of Canadian Shield erratics deposited by last-glacial-maximum continental ice along the flanks of prominent ridges and buttes within the region. The interpolation between ice-limit data points has produced two distinct slope profiles: 2.9 m/km to the east, and 4.2 m/km to the west of Mokowan Butte. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain this westward rise of the last-glacial-maximum continental ice limit: (1) regional tectonic uplift, (2) glacio-isostatic uplift, and (3) continental ice-flow convergence due to topographic obstacles and interaction with montane ice. Inferred long-term rates of tectonic uplift and glacio-isostatic modelling show that these two mechanisms account for less than 25% of the observed absolute elevation increase of the limit between the Del Bonita uplands and Cloudy Ridge in southwestern Alberta. The remaining rise in elevation of the continental ice-sheet margin in this region is thought to result from continental ice-flow convergence due to the combined effects of the regional topography and interaction with montane glaciers to the west. The steeper rise in the former continental ice surface west of Mokowan Butte can be explained by the topographic obstruction and interaction with montane glaciers in the area of the Rocky Mountain front.     

基于冰芯记录与遥感数据的近期青藏高原粉尘变化研究

冰芯中的微粒记录是恢复过去大气粉尘变化的独特信息,选取青藏高原的西部(慕士塔格)、中部(唐古拉)、南部(珠穆朗玛峰、达索普和宁金岗桑)为研究地点,结合遥感数据(气溶胶指数)和冰芯记录(粉尘质量浓度与沉积通量)探讨过去几十年来青藏高原大气粉尘在时间上和空间上的变化.结果表明:青藏高原上气溶胶指数从北向南、从西向东减少,靠近塔克拉玛干沙漠的地区气溶胶指数数值最大,藏南地区最低,与西风环流在高原的传输路径和源区的地理分布一致.冰芯中粉尘质量浓度表现为:高原中部>高原西部>高原南部,而沉积通量表现为高原西部>高原中部>高原南部,与气溶胶指数相一致.通过冰芯中的粉尘沉积通量记录与气溶胶指数的相关分析,发现在年尺度上仅有唐古拉地区表现出较好的相关性,而在其他地区无明显相关关系.经过3点滑动平均后,高原各地的这种相关性均有所提高:慕士塔格地区相关系数为0.49(P=0.13);唐古拉地区的相关系数为0.87(P<0.001);宁金岗桑地区的相关系数为0.68(P=0.03).这种相关性为通过冰芯记录来反演更长时间尺度的青藏高原上气溶胶指数提供了基础.     

Recent extreme slope failures in glacial environments: effects of thermal perturbation

This paper describes recent exceptional slope failures in high-mountain, glacial environments: the 2002 Kolka–Karmadon rock–ice avalanche in the Caucasus, a series of ice–rock avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, the 2005 Mt. Steller rock–ice avalanche in Alaska, and ice and rock avalanches at Monte Rosa, Italy in 2005 and 2007. Deposit volumes range from 10⁶ to 10⁸ m³ and include rock, ice and snow. Here we focus on thermal aspects of these failures reflecting the involvement of glacier ice and permafrost at all sites, suggesting that thermal perturbations likely contributed to the slope failures. We use surface and troposphere air temperatures, near-surface rock temperatures, satellite thermal data, and recent 2D and 3D thermal modeling studies to document thermal conditions at the landslide sites. We distinguish between thermal perturbations of volcanic-geothermal and climatic origin, and thermal perturbations related to glacier–permafrost interaction. The data and analysis support the view that recent, current and future climatic change increases the likelihood of large slope failures in steep glacierized and permafrost terrain. However, some important aspects of these settings such as the geology and tectonic environment remain poorly understood, making the identification of future sites of large slope instabilities difficult. In view of the potentially large natural disasters that can be caused by such slope failures, improved data and understanding are needed.