POM模式在日本南部黑潮路径变异研究中的应用

日本南部黑潮路径变异对北太平洋地区的气候和环境具有显著的影响,对黑潮路径变异的研究具有重要的意义。本文利用POM(Princeton Ocean Model)数值模式模拟了日本南部黑潮的路径变异情况,分析了黑潮大弯曲路径形成的可能机制。研究结果表明,当黑潮处于非大弯曲路径时,相对位势涡度的平均值呈现递减趋势,说明日本南部低位势涡度水在不断积累,这样会使得四国再循环流的强度增强,迫使黑潮保持平直路径,同时,近岸黑潮垂直流速剪切增大,斜压不稳定性的作用也逐渐增大;当黑潮从非大弯曲路径向大弯曲路径过渡时,再循环流强度的减弱会导致黑潮的流速剪切减小。根据海表高度异常场以及海洋上层流场信息发现,近岸黑潮附近的气旋涡会随着再循环流区域反气旋涡的东侧向南运动,最终导致黑潮大弯曲的发生。分析涡流的能量,结果显示,黑潮大弯曲路径的形成与斜压不稳定性密切相关。     

条件非线性最优扰动方法在黑潮目标观测研究中的应用

对近年来利用条件非线性最优扰动(Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation,CNOP)方法开展的黑潮目标观测研究进行了总结,主要包括日本南部黑潮路径变异的目标观测研究、黑潮延伸体模态转变的目标观测研究和源区黑潮流量变化的目标观测研究。通过计算这些事件的CNOP型扰动,发现这些事件的CNOP型扰动具有局地特征,可以作为实施目标观测的敏感区。理想回报试验结果表明,如果在由CNOP方法识别的敏感区内实施目标观测,则会大幅度提高上述事件的预报技巧。     

黑潮延伸体区海平面异常和中尺度涡的时空特征分析

利用1993-2010年间的卫星高度计资料,用EOF方法及小波分析研究了黑潮延伸体区域的海平面异常和中尺度涡的时空变化特征.研究结果表明:海平面EOF第一模态是季节模态,与该海域风应力旋度第一模态类似,相关系数达0.65.EOF第二模态主要反映了黑潮南部次级环流的变化情况,显著性周期是8-10年.通过相关分析发现黑潮延伸体南部次级环流的年代际变化与PDO有关,同时它又与风应力旋度第二模态有关;该海域的海面高度受到北太平洋东部SSH信号西传的影响,信号的传播需要大约3-4年时间.EOF第三模态是黑潮弯曲模态.日本南部的气旋涡和反气旋涡可以表征黑潮弯曲的形成,而且弯曲强度和涡的持续时间、强度和位置有关.     

东海黑潮周边中尺度涡的分布、运动规律以及生成机制

为了探究东海黑潮周边涡旋分布、形成机理及运动规律,基于法国国家空间研究中心(CNES)卫星海洋学存档数据中心(AVISO)的中尺度涡旋数据集展开了研究。首先,统计了近27年东海黑潮周边的涡旋分布,发现在黑潮弯曲海域产生了650个涡旋,在黑潮中段海域产生了271个涡旋,其中直径100~150 km之间的涡旋数量最多,涡旋振幅主要集中在2~6 cm。其次,分析了东海黑潮的运动路径和涡运动过程,结果表明,黑潮气旋式弯曲海域内侧易产生气旋涡,且移动路径较长,如台湾东北海域黑潮流轴气旋式弯曲处产生的涡旋,其平均位移达到了87.6 km;当反气旋式弯曲海域内侧产生反气旋涡时,涡旋往往做徘徊运动。黑潮中段海域的涡旋呈现出气旋涡在黑潮主轴西侧、反气旋涡在黑潮主轴东侧的极性对称分布特征,两类涡都沿黑潮主轴向东北方向移动。最后,结合再分析的流场、海面高度数据,讨论了涡旋运动规律和生成机制。黑潮弯曲处涡旋的生成与黑潮流体边界层分离有关,奄美大岛南部到冲绳岛西侧的黑潮逆流对黑潮中段海域涡的极性对称分布起到了关键作用,涡旋在运动过程中通常经历生长、成熟和衰变三个阶段。     

基于自组织映射的日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体的典型时空模态及其因果关系研究

过去的研究认为,黑潮延伸体的年代际振荡受来自其下游的太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）相关联的信号主导,但最近的观测表明这种调控机制在2017年9月之后不再成立。与此同时,黑潮延伸体的上游即日本南部黑潮正在发生一次大弯曲事件。利用26年（1993–2018年）的卫星高度计提供的海表高度距平数据和自组织映射（SOM）方法,本文研究了日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体的时空模态及其因果关系。结果表明,SOM能有效地提取两个海区的典型空间模态,且它们的演变轨迹表明当日本南部黑潮处于大弯曲（离岸型非大弯曲）路径时,黑潮延伸体趋于稳定（不稳定）态。基于SOM识别得到的海表面高度距平（SLA）特征区及特征时间模态,我们进一步利用一种最近发展的定量因果分析方法研究了两个流系之间的因果关系。研究发现,当黑潮大弯曲发生时,日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体之间存在双向因果,但因果关键区不同。前者对后者的影响集中在纪伊半岛东南侧及黑潮延伸体“两脊一槽”区域,而后者对前者的影响则集中在黑潮延伸体“两脊一槽”区域及黑潮再循环流区域。这说明黑潮大弯曲的发展对黑潮延伸体的稳定性有重要作用,同时黑潮延伸体通过调制南部再循环流影响日本南部黑潮的路径。不同的是,当离岸型非大弯曲路径发生时,只有从日本南部黑潮向黑潮延伸体的单向因果关系,且因果性主要集中在伊豆海脊及再循环流区域。这与该时期海表高度负异常沿日本南岸不断向位于下游的黑潮延伸体再循环流的传播有关,它使得黑潮延伸体变得不稳定。     

挟带黑潮高盐水的中尺度涡在南海北部的时空特征

吕宋海峡处涡致输运显著影响南海北部的热盐平衡。本文利用1993—2018年间的AVISO卫星数据,识别和筛选了南海北部76个黑潮脱落反气旋涡、46个黑潮伴生气旋涡、29个南海局地反气旋涡和40个南海局地气旋涡。分析发现,四类涡旋的平均非线性系数均远大于1,证实了筛选涡旋具有黑潮高盐水输运能力。涡旋传播路径受南海北部地形影响,在西向传播过程中向西南向偏移。相较于气旋涡,反气旋涡形成之后向南海北部移动了更远的距离。涡旋多形成于吕宋海峡中部,而随着纬度的升高或降低,形成概率逐渐减小。脱落(伴生)涡旋多形成于秋冬两季而夏季最少,以反气旋涡居多,平均每月反气旋涡要比气旋涡多2.5个;年平均脱落(伴生)涡旋数目约为4.6,且气旋涡并不是每年都形成。整体上,El Ni?o事件通过影响黑潮路径而使得黑潮脱落或伴生的涡旋数目增多。     

中国近海及其附近海域若干涡旋研究综述Ⅱ.东海和琉球群岛以东海域

综述东海和琉球群岛以东海域若干气旋型和反气旋型涡旋的研究.对东海陆架、200m以浅海域,主要讨论了东海西南部反气旋涡、济州岛西南气旋式涡和长江口东北气旋式冷涡.东海两侧和陆坡附近出现了各种不同尺度的涡旋,其动力原因之一是与东海黑潮弯曲现象有很大关系,其次也与地形、琉球群岛存在等有关.东海黑潮有两种类型弯曲:黑潮锋弯曲和黑潮路径弯曲.黑潮第一种弯曲出现了锋面涡旋,评述了锋面涡旋的存在时间尺度与空间尺度和结构等;也指出了黑潮第二种弯曲,即路径弯曲时在其两侧出现了中尺度气旋式和反气旋涡,讨论了它们的变化的特性.特别讨论了冲绳北段黑潮弯曲路径和中尺度涡的相互作用,着重指出,当气旋式涡在冲绳海槽北段成长,并充分地发展,其周期约在1~3个月时,它的空间尺度成长到约为200km(此尺度相当于冲绳海槽的纬向尺度)时,黑潮路径从北段转移到南段.也分析了东海黑潮流量和其附近中尺度涡的相互作用.最后指出在琉球群岛以东、以南海域,经常出现各种不同的中尺度反气旋式和气旋式涡,讨论了它们在时间与空间尺度上变化的特征.     

初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响

使用球坐标下1.5 层约化重力浅水模式模拟海洋风生双环流, 结果显示双环流射流存在拉伸模态和收缩模态间的年际变化。以双环流从拉伸模态向收缩模态的转变过程为背景场, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法, 考察初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响, 得到两类初始误差: 全局CNOP型和局部CNOP(LCNOP)型, 两类初始误差对双环流变异的影响几乎相反。通过考察误差发展, 发现在射流从拉伸模态向收缩模态转变过程中, CNOP 型初始误差使射流弯曲程度变大, 并在预报时刻导致涡脱落; 而LCNOP 型初始误差则使射流弯曲程度变小。相比LCNOP, CNOP 型初始误差引起更大预报误差, 导致双环流变异的预报技巧下降更多。两类误差得到较大发展的区域可能存在正压不稳定, 使误差能够不断从背景场吸收能量进而得到快速发展。给出了两类使双环流变异预报技巧下降最大的初始误差, 在实际的数值预报中减少这两种类型的误差, 将有助于提高双环流变异的预报技巧。     

日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体路径状态关联性的定量分析

日本南部黑潮存在多种路径模态:近岸非大弯曲路径、离岸非大弯曲路径和大弯曲路径。黑潮延伸体的路径存在两种典型模态:收缩态和伸展态。从地理位置看, 日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体是相邻的, 但它们的路径状态是否存在关联一直存在争议。本文基于卫星观测的海表高度资料和长期的海洋高分辨率再分析资料, 对日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体路径状态之间的关联性进行定量分析, 结果表明:日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体的路径状态存在一定的关联。当日本南部黑潮处于近岸非大弯曲和大弯曲路径时, 黑潮延伸体主要处于伸展态; 当日本南部黑潮处于离岸非大弯曲时, 黑潮延伸体处于伸展态和收缩态的比例相当。进一步分析表明, 黑潮流轴处于伊豆海脊的位置部分决定了上述关系, 可能存在其他因素调制了两者的关联性。     

台湾以东中尺度涡对黑潮入侵东海路径的影响

利用AVISO数据集的卫星高度计资料,分析了中国台湾以东中尺度涡的时空特征,通过具体的中尺度涡实例探讨了其对台湾以东黑潮路径的影响。研究表明气旋式中尺度涡在春夏季节的数目要少于反气旋式中尺度涡,在秋冬季节气旋式涡旋个数则多于反气旋涡;并且台东以东区域涡旋传播存在多种路径,涡旋的存在对台湾东北部黑潮入侵东海的路径具有重大影响,特别是2004年夏季台湾以东区域存在多个涡旋,相应的吕宋海峡黑潮主轴向东偏移明显,台湾东北黑潮入侵东海的路径发生了显著变化。     

Influence of Mesoscale Eddies on Variations of the Kuroshio Path South of Japan

The influences of mesoscale eddies on variations of the Kuroshio path south of Japan have been investigated using time series of the Kuroshio axis location and altimeter-derived sea surface height maps for a period of seven years from 1993 to 1999, when the Kuroshio followed its non-large meander path. It was found that both the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies may interact with the Kuroshio and trigger short-term meanders of the Kuroshio path, although not all eddies that approached or collided with the Kuroshio formed meanders. An anticyclonic eddy that revolves clockwise in a region south of Shikoku and Cape Shionomisaki with a period of about 5–6 months was found to propagate westward along about 30°N and collide with the Kuroshio in the east of Kyushu or south of Shikoku. This collision sometimes triggers meanders which propagate over the whole region south of Japan. The eddy was advected downstream, generating a meander on the downstream side to the east of Cape Shionomisaki. After the eddy passed Cape Shionomisaki, it detached from the Kuroshio and started to move westward again. Sometimes the eddy merges with other anticyclonic eddies traveling from the east. Coalescence of cyclonic eddies, which are also generated in the Kuroshio Extension region and propagate westward in the Kuroshio recirculation region south of Japan, into the Kuroshio in the east of Kyushu, also triggers meanders which mainly propagate only in a region west of Cape Shionomisaki. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Generation of Small Meanders of the Kuroshio South of Kyushu in a High-Resolution Ocean General Circulation Model

The generation of small meanders of the Kuroshio south of Kyushu has been investigated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific Ocean. The small cyclonic meander develops in the region east of the Tokara Strait with a period of about one month, then propagates downstream along the Kuroshio path to the longitude of the Kii Peninsula, which is similar to the so-called trigger meanders for the formation of the large-meander of the Kuroshio south of Japan. It turns out that the generation of the small meander is a local phenomenon, strongly associated with anticyclonic eddies that propagate northeastward along the Kuroshio path in the East China Sea. The vorticity balance indicates that the accumulation of positive vorticity during the developing phase of the small meander occurs mainly from the balance between the stretching and the advection terms. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

模式参数的不确定性对日本南部黑潮大弯曲路径预报的影响

基于1.5层浅水方程模式,利用条件非线性最优参数扰动(CNOP-P)方法,研究模式参数的不确定性对黑潮大弯曲路径预报的影响。研究表明,单个模式参数误差如侧向摩擦系数误差、界面摩擦系数误差以及在不同季节具有不同约束的风应力大小误差,对黑潮大弯曲路径预报的影响较小,并且对背景流场的选取具有一定的敏感性;所有模式参数误差同时存在时对黑潮大弯曲路径预报具有一定的影响,并且预报结果在9个月左右不能被接受。因此,要提高黑潮大弯曲路径的预报技巧,模式中的参数需要给出更好的估计。     

Significance of High-Frequency Wind Forcing in Modelling the Kuroshio

Motivated by an analysis of a satellite sea surface temperature image suggesting that a train of extra-tropical cyclones induces amplification of the Kuroshio meander, a regional Kuroshio/Oyashio general circulation model was used to investigate the impact of high-frequency wind on the Kuroshio path variations. Near Japan, the standard deviation of the wind stress curl can be 10 times larger than the monthly mean, so the synoptic variations of the wind stress curl cannot be neglected. With the bimodal Kuroshio case realized in the model, sensitivity tests were conducted using monthly and daily mean QuikSCAT-derived wind stress forcings. The comparison showed that the high-frequency local wind perturbed the Shikoku recirculation gyre (SRG) and caused a transition of the path from straight to meander. The strong anticyclonic eddy within the SRG triggered the meander in the latter case. The high-frequency wind perturbed the motion of the eddy that would have otherwise detached from the Kuroshio, migrated south and terminated the meandering state. The result reinforces the suggestion from previous studies that the anticyclonic eddy within the SRG plays an active role in controlling the Kuroshio path variations.     

Anticyclonic Eddy Revealing Low Sea Surface Temperature in the Sea South of Japan: Case Study of the Eddy Observed in 1999–2000

Various kinds of datasets, such as satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height, surface velocity produced by combining surface drifter and satellite altimeter data, and hydrographic data, led to the discovery of an anticyclonic eddy with lower SST than those of surrounding waters in the Kuroshio recirculation region south of Shikoku, as if the eddy were cyclonic. This anticyclonic eddy was formed east of Kyushu in late August to early September 1999 from the merger of two anticyclonic eddies which had migrated in the recirculation region to the sea south of Japan from the east. After the merger, the anticyclonic eddy strengthened abruptly and began to exhibit the low SST. In October, this eddy coalesced with the Kuroshio and moved swiftly eastward, accompanied by an amplitude growth of the Kuroshio meander. In mid November, off the Kii Peninsula, the eddy detached from the meandering Kuroshio. It then moved southwestward and again slowly propagated westward along the 30°N line. During this period, at least from late October 1999 to January 2000, SSTs over the anticyclonic eddy were found to be continuously lower than those of surrounding waters. This case tells us that we have to pay careful attention to the interpretation of mesoscale SST distributions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Primary Study of the Mechanism of Eddy Shedding from the Kuroshio Bend in Luzon Strait

The mechanism of the anticyclonic eddy's shedding from the Kuroshio bend in Luzon Strait has been studied using a nonlinear 2 1/2 layer model, in a domain including the North Pacific and South China Sea. The model is forced by steady zonal wind in the North Pacific. Energy analysis is adopted to detect the mechanism of the eddy shedding. Twelve experiments with unique changes of wind forcing speed (to obtain different Kuroshio transports at Luzon Strait) were performed to examine the relationship between the Kuroshio transport (KT) and the eddy shedding events. In the reference experiment with KT of 22.7 Sv (forced with zonal wind idealized from the annual mean wind stress from the COADS data set), the interval of eddy shedding is 70 days and the shed eddy centers at (20°N, 117.5°E). When the Kuroshio bend extends westward, the southern cyclonic perturbation grows so rapidly as to form a cyclonic eddy (18.5°N, 120.5°E) because of the frontal instability in the south of the Kuroshio bend. In the evolution of the cyclonic eddy, it cleaves the Kuroshio bend and triggers the separation of the anticyclonic eddy. In statistical terms, anticyclonic eddy shedding occurs only when KT fluctuates within a moderate range, between 21 Sv and 28 Sv. When the KT is larger than 28 Sv, a stronger frontal instability south of the Kuroshio bend tends to generate a cyclonic eddy of size similar to the width of the Luzon Strait. The bigger cyclonic eddy prevents the Kuroshio bend from extending into the SCS and does not lead to eddy shedding. On the other hand, when the KT decreases to less than 21 Sv, the frontal instability south of the Kuroshio bend is so weak that the size of corresponding cyclonic eddy is smaller than half the width of the Luzon Strait. The cyclonic eddy, lacking power, fails to cleave the Kuroshio bend and cause separation of an anticyclonic eddy; as a result, no eddy shedding occurred then, either.