Trends of spring time frost events and phenological dates in Central Europe

Summary ?Over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere’s continents temperature has been increasing during the last century. Particularly minimum temperatures show a more pronounced increase than maximum temperatures. Not only the phenological seasons, but also the potentially plant damaging late frost events are governed by the atmosphere. In case of a rise of minimum temperatures one would expect phenological phases and spring late frost events to occur earlier. In this work the question is elucidated whether plant phenology shifts at a higher or lower rate towards earlier occurrences than potential plant damaging events, like spring late frost events. Frost events based on the last occurrence of daily minimum temperatures below a certain threshold have been moving faster to earlier occurrence dates than phenological phases during the last decades at 50 climate stations in Central Europe. Trend values of frost time series range around −0.2 days/year and of phenological time series are between −0.2 and 0.0 days/year over the period from 1951–1997. ‘Corylus avellana beginning of pollination’ is the only one of the 13 phases considered here with a lower trend value of −0.28 days/year. Early phases are more adapted to below zero temperatures and therefore follow more closely the temperature variability. Later phases seem to have more reason to be concerned about possible late frost events and react more cautiously towards higher spring temperatures and earlier last frost dates. The risk of late frost damage for plants should have been lower during the last decade as compared to the previous decades. Received June 28, 2002; accepted July 18, 2002     

Indicators of Climate Warming in Minnesota: Lake ICE Covers and Snowmelt Runoff

Records of hydrologic parameters, especially those parameters that are directly linked to air temperature, were analyzed to find indicators of recent climate warming in Minnesota, USA. Minnesota is projected to be vulnerable to climate change because of its location in the northern temperate zone of the globe. Ice-out and ice-in dates on lakes, spring (snowmelt) runoff timing, spring discharge values in streams, and stream water temperatures recorded up to the year 2002 were selected for study. The analysis was conducted by inspection of 10-year moving averages, linear regression on complete and on partial records, and by ranking and sorting of events. Moving averages were used for illustrative purposes only. All statistics were computed on annual data. All parameters examined show trends, and sometimes quite variable trends, over different periods of the record. With the exception of spring stream flow rates the trends of all parameters examined point toward a warming climate in Minnesota over the last two or three decades. Although hidden among strong variability from year to year, ice-out dates on 73 lakes have been shifting to an earlier date at a rate of −0.13 days/year from 1965 to 2002, while ice-in dates on 34 lakes have been delayed by 0.75 days/year from 1979 to 2002. From 1990 to 2002 the rates of change increased to −0.25 days/year for ice-out and 1.44 days/year for ice-in. Trend analyses also show that spring runoff at 21 stream gaging sites examined occurs earlier. From 1964 to 2002 the first spring runoff (due to snowmelt) has occurred −0.30 days/year earlier and the first spring peak runoff −0.23 days/year earlier. The stream water temperature records from 15 sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area shows warming by 0.11^∘C/year, on the average, from 1977 to 2002. Urban development may have had a strong influence. The analysis of spring stream flow rates was inconclusive, probably because runoff is linked as much to precipitation and land use as to air temperature. Ranking and sorting of annual data shows that a disproportionately large number of early lake ice-out dates has occurred after 1985, but also between 1940 and 1950; similarly late lake ice-in has occurred more frequently since about 1990. Ranking and sorting of first spring runoff dates also gave evidence of earlier occurrences, i.e. climate warming in late winter. A relationship of changes in hydrologic parameters with trends in air temperature records was demonstrated. Ice-out dates were shown to correlate most strongly with average March air temperatures shifting by −2.0 days for a 1^°C increase in March air temperature. Spring runoff dates also show a relationship with March air temperatures; spring runoff dates shift at a rate of −2.5 days/1^°C minimum March air temperature change. Water temperatures at seven river sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area show an average rise of 0.46^°C in river temperature/1^°C mean annual air temperature change, but this rate of change probably includes effects of urban development. In conclusion, records of five hydrologic parameters that are closely linked to air temperature show a trend that suggests recent climate warming in Minnesota, and especially from 1990 to 2002. The recent rates of change calculated from the records are very noteworthy, but must not be used to project future parameter values, since trends cannot continue indefinitely, and trend reversals can be seen in some of the long-term records.     

石家庄春季自然物候对气候变化的响应研究

分析了石家庄1965-2007年杨絮始落、鸭梨始花和刺槐盛花3种植物物候期的变化特征以及对气候的响应规律。结果表明：（1）石家庄春季物候期普遍提早,早春的物候期提前天数多,晚春物候期提早天数少。石家庄春季物候现象普遍存在着2～3年的周期。（2）通过计算石家庄春季物候与气温、日照和降水量的相关关系,发现与气温的关系最好,与降水日数表现出弱的相关性,与日照关系不明显,说明气温是影响石家座春季物候的主导气象因子,GDD是衡量植物热量供应的较好指标,而日照对物候期影响表现出不同物种和不同物候现象间的差异性特征。（3）石家庄春季物候期与ENSO事件也表现出一定的关系,在暖事件年以物候期偏早为主,在冷事件年无明显早晚趋势。     

Detection of changes in the summer precipitation time series of the region Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Summary  The main characteristics of the spatial and temporal variability of summer precipitation observed in 40 rainfall stations of the Emilia-Romagna region in northern Italy, are analysed for the period 1922 to 1995. Non-parametric tests and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis were used as tools in order to achieve the paper’s objective. The Pettitt and Mann-Kendall tests detect shift points and trends in the precipitation time series, respectively, while the EOF analysis reveals the main characteristics of spatial variability. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) was used to detect the inhomogeneity of the data set. Almost all stations exhibit an increasing trend with a systematic significant upward shift around 1962. The climate signal is more significant in the north-western, central and north-eastern part of the region, and the spatial extension strongly depends on the network density and the time period analysed. The change in summer precipitation is mainly due to a change during August and is confirmed by the SNHT test which does not reveal an inhomogeneity in the series. The first EOF pattern indicates that a common large-scale process could be responsible for summer precipitation variability in the Emilia-Romagna region. The second EOF pattern shows an opposite sign of climate variability between north-western and south-eastern areas. The Apennine mountains show the largest climate variability in the summer precipitation field. Received March 8, 2000 Revised July 17, 2000     

Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012)

Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant phenology is modulated by climate, and closely governed by water availability and air temperature. Over the period 1986–2012, the effects of climate change on phenology were analyzed in five crops at 26 sites growing in Spain (southern Europe): oats, wheat, rye, barley and maize. The phenophases studied were: sowing date, emergence, flag leaf sheath swollen, flowering, seed ripening and harvest. Trends in phenological response over time were detected using linear regression. Trends in air temperature and rainfall over the period prior to each phenophase were also charted. Correlations between phenological features, biogeographical area and weather trends were examined using a Generalized Lineal Mixed Model approach. A generalized advance in most winter-cereal phenophases was observed, mainly during the spring. Trend patterns differed between species and phenophases. The most noticeable advance in spring phenology was recorded for wheat and oats, the “Flag leaf sheath swollen” and “Flowering date” phenophases being brought forward by around 3 days/year and 1 day/year, respectively. Temperature changes during the period prior to phenophase onset were identified as the cause of these phenological trends. Climate changes are clearly prompting variations in cereal crop phenology; their consequences could be even more marked if climate change persists into the next century. Changes in phenology could in turn impact crop yield; fortunately, human intervention in crop systems is likely to minimize the negative impact.     

Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation

Summary Trends in the time series of air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and onset of climatic seasons at ten stations in Estonia during 1951–2000 are analysed. Using the conditional Mann-Kendall test, these trends are compared with trends in the characteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation: the NAO and AO indices, frequency of circulation forms according to the Vangengeim-Girs’ classification, and the northern hemisphere teleconnection indices. The objective of the study is to estimate the influence of trends in circulation on climate changes in Estonia. Statistically significant increasing trends in air temperature are detected in January, February, March, April and May, in winter (DJF), spring (MAM) and in the cold period (NDJFM). The trends in precipitation, as a rule, differ from station to station. Increasing trends are present during the cold half-year – from October until March – and also in June. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 17–20 days inland and by 21–36 days on the coast. The onsets of early spring and spring have shifted to an earlier date. Some important changes have occurred in the parameters of atmospheric circulation during 1951–2000. Intensity of zonal circulation, i.e. westerlies, has increased during the cold period, especially in February and March. Results of the conditional Mann-Kendall test indicate that the intensification of westerlies in winter is significantly related to climate changes in winter and also in spring. A negative trend in the East Atlantic Jet (EJ) index, i.e. the weakening of the westerlies in May has caused warming during that month. Decrease in northerly circulation, i.e. in frequency of circulation form C and in East Atlantic/West Russia teleconnection index (EW) is related to an increase in precipitation in October.     

Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region

Climate parameters, especially temperature, sunlight, and precipitation, play a decisive role in growing and maturing processes. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between climate variability and variations in phenological events in viticulture. Long time series of daily meteorological observations are used to quantify these relations. The primary aim is to predict the date of phenological events by relationships between plant morphology and environmental conditions. Causal relationships between environment and internal activities of the vine (phytochemistry, cellular interactions, molecular and cell biology) are not our focus. The dates of the phenological events are important for planning treatments in the vineyards like pest management, for predicting the duration of the ripening phase and estimating the quality of the grapes and the vintage. The focus is layed on the region of the Upper Moselle, especially the Luxembourgian viticulture. First the regional climate and the phenological states of different vine varieties during the time period 1951?C2005 are analysed. Significant trends are detected in annual, spring and summer temperatures. Vine phenology is also found to have changed significantly; budburst date and flowering events occur earlier by about two weeks. In a second step, relationships between phenological events and climate parameters are used to develop a prediction model. The parameterisation used in this study is based on a linear multiple regression method with forward and backward steps. The predictors tested are mainly temperature means for different time periods or temperature derived indices. In addition precipitation and sunshine duration for different time periods are evaluated, but only the temperature based predictors showed sufficient skill. For the budburst event, the significant predictors are the accumulated degree days in March, the mean daily maximum temperature in April and the accumulated frost days from January to March. The flowering event is best predicted by the accumulated degree days in May and April, the mean daily maximum temperature in June, and the date of the budburst event. Depending on the vine variety and the phenological event, the model explains 80?C89% of the variance and has a correlation coefficient above 0.90 with the observations.     

Climate change,weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: Southwestern Quebec

Climate change has led to increased temperatures, and simulation models suggest that this should affect crop production in important agricultural regions of the world. Nations at higher latitudes, such as Canada, will be most affected. We studied the relationship between climate variability (temperature and precipitation) and corn yield trends over a period of 33 years for the Monteregie region of south-western Quebec using historical yield and climate records and statistical models. Growing season mean temperature has increased in Monterregie, mainly due to increased September temperature. Precipitation did not show any clear trend over the 33 year period. Yield increased about 118 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ from 1973 to 2005 (under normal weather conditions) due mainly to changes in technology (genetics and management). Two climate variables were strongly associated with corn yield variability: July temperature and May precipitation. These two variables explain more than a half of yield variability associated with climate. In conclusion, July temperatures below normal and May precipitation above normal have negative effects on corn yield, and the growing seasons have warmed, largely due to increases in the September temperature.     

Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology

Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (T_mean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to T_mean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to T_mean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.     

Plant Phenological Anomalies in Germany and their Relation to Air Temperature and NAO

This paper analyses long-term (1951–2000) phenological observations of20 plant seasonal phases recorded within the phenological network of the German Weather Service in relation to climate data and NAO. Phenological inter-annual variability and temporal trends were determined by using mean anomaly curves for Germany. For all phases, the mean trends derived by this method are similar to German averages of linear trends of single station records. Trend analysis using anomaly curves appears to be effective in relating seasonal phenological trends to climate or satellite data: Spring and summer phenological anomalies, such as leaf unfolding and flowering of different species, strongly correlate with temperature of the preceding months (R² between 0.65 and 0.85, best one-variable model) andtheir onsets have advanced by 2.5 to 6.7 days per ° C warmer spring. Fruit ripening of Sambucus nigra and Aesculus hippocastanum, keyphenophases of early and mid autumn, correlate well with summer temperature (R² 0.74 and 0.84) and also advance by 6.5and 3.8 days per ° C (April–June). But the response of autumn colouringto warmer climate is more complex because two opposing factors influence autumn colouring dates. Higher spring and early summer temperatures advance leaf colouring, whereas warmer autumn temperatures delay leaf colouring. The percentage of variance explained by temperature (R² 0.22 to 0.51,best one-variable model) is less than for spring and summer phases. The length of the growing season is mainly increased by warmer springs (R² 0.48to 0.64, best one-variable model) and lengthened by 2.4 to 3.5 days/° C (February–April). The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) of January–March correlates with spring phenological anomalies(R² 0.37 to 0.56, best one-variable model), summer to mid autumn phases respond to NAO of February–March (R² 0.23 to 0.36) (both negativecorrelations). Leaf colouring is delayed by higher NAO of (August) September (R² 0.10to 0.18). NAO of January–February explains 0.41 to 0.44% of thevariance of the length of the growing season.     

Decline in Length of the Summer Season on the Kola Peninsula, Russia

By analysing records made in the northern taiga forests of the Lapland Reserve (Kola Peninsula, Russia) during 1930–1998, we unexpectedly discovered a decline in the length of the snow-free and ice-free periods by 15–20 days due to both delayed spring and advanced autumn/winter. Respective seasonal temperatures best explained the dates of all phenological phases: 1 °C shift in temperature was approximately equal to 2–5 day shift in phenology. However the phenological shiftsduring the observation period are much larger than could be expected from the slight (0.56 °C) drop in temperatures during August–September, suggesting that the biotic effects of a very slight cooling have been enhanced by one or more unknown factors. Although emissions of sulphur dioxide from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk may have contributed to the observed trend (via changes in regional radiative budget), we found no evidence of direct pollution impact on dates of birch autumnal coloration or birch leaf fall, which exhibited the largest (22 days) shift between 1930 and 1998. The detected phenological trends agree with an increase in winter (snow) precipitation in the study area by 44%; however, effects of precipitation on any of the investigated phenological phases were far from significant. Our results highlight the importance of phenological records for the assessment of past regional environmental changes, and demonstrates that the prediction of even the simplest biotic responses to the Global Changes requires a profound understanding of the interactive impact of abiotic factors on the ecosystem.     

基于遥感数据的内蒙古草原灌丛物候变化研究

植被物候研究是全球气候变化研究的重要内容,但国际上有关干旱半干旱区灌丛物候变化的研究还很缺乏。为了探讨气候变化对内蒙古草原灌丛物候的影响,利用2000~2011年的MODIS EVI时间序列影像,采用动态阈值法得到6种灌丛12 a物候年际变化情况,结合样点附近气象站的气温和降水数据,分析了灌丛物候与气候变化的动态关系。结果表明：（1）内蒙古中西部草原灌丛返青期、枯黄期都呈现提前的趋势,生长季长度缩短;（2）春季均温升高和前一年秋冬降水增加可以提前灌丛返青期,是影响返青期的主要因素;（3）秋季降水减少和夏秋均温上升都利于枯黄期提前,夏季降水的作用则因灌丛种类不同而略有差异;（4）夏秋均温上升缩短了生长季长度,夏秋降水量、春季均温则多与生长季长度呈正相关。     

Combined impact of climate change,cultivar shift,and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)^?1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.     

Combined Impact of Climate Change,Cultivar Shift,and Sowing Date on Spring Wheat Phenology in Northern China

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980 s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China(NC).The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day(10 yr)~(-1). Moreover, while the vegetative growth period(VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period(RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period(WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator(APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC.Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat.Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages(i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures(cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.     

中国东部季风区植被物候季节变化对气候响应的大尺度特征:多年平均结果

利用1982～1993年NOAA/NASA Pathfinder AVHRR陆地数据集中的规一化植被指数(NDVI)数据集,对中国东部植被季节生长的阶段性进行了划分.在此基础上,对植被季节生长对气候响应的多年平均状况进行了分析,发现在多年平均意义上,(1)中国东部植被生长在各生长阶段都同步响应于温度的季节变化;(2)在多数时段,中国东部植被生长与降水的季节变化存在显著相关关系,植被生长滞后于降水变化,滞后时间为20～30天.通过本文的研究,在中国东部季风区,有关植被季节生长对气候响应大尺度特征的多年平均状况的定性认识得到定量化的表达,为改进陆面过程描述、提高对中国东部区域气候的长期模拟能力提供了一定的依据.     

Extreme events,trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.     

Precipitation fluctuations during the winter season from 1960 to 1995 over Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Summary ?The variability of the winter mean precipitation observed at 40 rainfall stations in Emilia-Romagna (a region in northern Italy) from 1960 to 1995 is examined. The results are compared with those obtained for the whole of Italy using records from 32 stations. Temporal variability of the time series is investigated by means of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, in order to estimate the presence of trends and “change points”. Before analysis the original precipitation data set have been tested to detect the inhomogeneity points, using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT). Almost all stations situated in Emilia Romagna exhibit a significant decreasing trend in winter precipitation during the 1960–1995 period. The same characteristics are revealed, more significant in the northern and central part of the region, when the stations for all Italy are analysed. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected through the Pettitt test in Emilia Romagna, around 1980 at some stations, while the rest of the stations reveal the shift point occurrence around 1985. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected around 1985, when analysing the time series for all Italy. Spatial variability of winter precipitation is studied using the Empirical Orthogonal Function. The first pattern indicates that a common large-scale process could be responsible for the winter precipitation variability. The second EOF pattern shows an opposite sign of climate variability, which highlights the influence of relief on the precipitation regime. The time series associated with the first precipitation pattern (PC1) at both scales emphasises a significant decreasing trend and a downward shift point around 1985. The internal structure analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the 1960–1995 period reveals a significant increasing trend and an upward shift around 1980. Strong correlation is also detected between PC1 (Emilia Romagna and at the scale of all Italy) and the NAO index. Thus, the changes detected in the winter precipitation around 1985 could be due to an intensification of the positive phase of the [NAO], especially after 1980. Received March 23, 2001; revised February 20, 2002; accepted March 3, 2002     

过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究

利用地球系统模式（CESM）开展过去2000 年气候模拟试验,在利用观测资料、再分析资料对模拟资料进行检验的基础上,探讨百年时间尺度上亚澳夏季风降水的时、空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、定量区分自然因子和人类活动对亚澳夏季风的影响具有重要意义。结果表明:过去2000 年亚澳夏季风降水和温度的波动较为一致,暖期降水多,冷期降水少。两者相关系数为0.83,达到99%置信度。此外,亚澳夏季风降水存在105、130、180 a的百年尺度周期。亚澳夏季风降水经验正交函数分解第一模态在印度洋北部呈南北反向的分布型态,在东亚地区呈负、正、负的分布型态;第二模态在印度洋北部呈正、负、正的分布型态,在东亚地区呈全区一致型的分布型态。经验正交函数分解第一特征向量和第二特征向量的正、负值中心大多出现在印度洋北部地区,南北呈不对称分布。亚澳夏季风降水的105 a周期主要受火山活动和土地利用/覆盖的影响,130 a周期主要受太阳辐射、气候系统内部变率的影响,180 a周期主要受火山活动的影响。从经验正交函数分解第一特征向量来看,整个亚澳夏季风降水主要受土地利用/覆盖、太阳辐射的影响;第二特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受太阳辐射和气候系统内部变率的影响;第三特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受气候系统内部变率和温室气体的影响。该研究对揭示百年际时间尺度气候变化特征、辨识影响气候变化的自然因素与人为因素、理解其影响气候的物理机制等具有重要意义,也为应对该区域气候变化提供了参考依据。      

Seasonal temperature and precipitation variability during the last 60?years in a Mediterranean climate area of Northeastern Spain: a multivariate analysis

This paper presents the analysis of mean daily temperature and precipitation from 1950 to 2010 in an area with Mediterranean climate of NE Spain including some coastal areas near Barcelona and the Penedès and Camp de Tarragona Depressions located between the Coastal Mountain Range and the Mediterranean Sea. Their variability, with especial attention to the frequency of extreme events, was analysed by using 18 indexes: seven for temperature and 11 for precipitation were analysed for four meteorological observatories. A multivariate analysis was performed in order to analyse the temperature and precipitation trends. During the analysed period, an increase in mean annual maximum temperature was observed in all observatories ranging between 1.5 and 2.2°C associated with an increase in the number of days with high extreme temperatures. Minimum temperature only increased significantly in the coast observatories (about 1.4°C). By seasons, temperature trends were greater at Vilafranca del Penedès and Barcelona observatories and lower at Reus airport. Maximum spring temperature increased between 1.5 and 2.5°C, summer temperature increased between 1.6 and 2.5°C and autumn temperature increased by up to 2.2°C. Precipitation presented a high variability from year to year, without significant trends. The most significant results were related to the dry conditions observed in spring 2000s, the wet conditions recorded in summer 2000s and 1980s and the longer dry periods in autumn 2000s. The increase of temperatures determined the increase of evapotranspiration, and due to the higher irregular distribution, water deficits for crop development were recorded. An advance of phenological dates and a reduction of grape yield are associated to climate trends.     

气温对吐鲁番地区木本植物春季物候的影响

利用吐鲁番和鄯善1980-2004年气象资料以及同期春季物候资料,统计分析了吐鲁番地区气温和木本植物春季物候的变化趋势及其相关性;各物候间的相关关系以及不同时段气温变化对物候的影响。在此基础上探讨了未来气候变化对吐鲁番地区木本植物春季物候的可能影响。