南海夏季风爆发的环流特征及指标研究

使用美国NCEP/NCAR高度场和风场资料及外逸长波辐射(OLR)资料,分析了4～7月南亚和东亚上空环流场,给出了南海夏季风爆发的定义及1953～1999年季风爆发的时间序列,指出季风爆发存在3种类型的环流场,发现东印度洋赤道两侧涡旋对的出现对季风爆发有很好的指示意义.综合季风爆发过程中热力学和动力学要素的特征,建立了适合南海夏季风爆发的指数计算经验公式.     

孟加拉湾季风爆发对南海季风爆发的影响Ⅰ:个例分析

利用南海季风试验分析场和NCAR向外长波辐射通量(OLR)资料研究了1998年孟加拉湾季风和南海季风爆发期间副热带环流的大尺度和天气尺度特征,探讨了孟加拉湾季风爆发与南海季风爆发之间的物理联系及孟加拉湾季风气旋的对流凝结潜热释放对副热带高压“撤出”南海的影响。结果表明,1998年5月爆发的东亚季风展现出典型的从孟加拉湾地区东传发展到南海地区的过程。随着孟加拉湾季风爆发和对流活动增强、北移,南海北部出现了低层西风和对流活动,领先于副热带高压在南海地区减弱和撤退。结果还显示南海北部地区的对流凝结加热有助于该地区经向温度梯度的反转,在热成风关系的制约下南海上空副热带高压脊面的垂直倾斜由冬季型转向夏季型,季风爆发。     

南海夏季风演变的气候学特征

本文总结南海北部地区夏季风演变的气候学特征，发现南海地区５月第３候对流层高层东风和北风爆发，对流层低层西风第１次跃升，东亚经向季风环流圈开始形成，这可以成为南海地区夏季风爆发的标志。对流层低层西风在６月中旬开始的第２次连续跃升对应江淮地区的梅雨爆发期。类似地，中国大陆夏季对流层低层５月初和６月初有两次爆发性增暖过程，第２次比第１次强烈得多。南海北部地区对流层低层纬向风速、比湿盛夏呈双峰型，纬向风速峰值分别出现在６月第５候和８月第４候，比湿峰值分别出现在６月第６候和８月第５候。比湿突升对应纬向风速突升，但略落后于风速峰值出现的时间。南海北部地区季风爆发前，温度是波动式上升的，南海季风爆发后，温度是波动式下降的。中国大陆东部及南海地区夏季对流层低层比湿分布有３次突变，即４月中旬南海北部比湿突增，并开始出现高比湿中心，而南海南部为最大比湿中心；５月中旬最大比湿中心已从南海南部跳到了南海北部－华南并向江淮流域扩展；６月中旬江淮流域比湿突增并一直维持到８月，同时南海南部高比湿带消失。而５月中旬ＯＬＲ有一次突变，ＯＬＲ低值区爆发性向北扩张，这对应于南海地区夏季风的爆发。而孟加拉湾地区夏季风演变的气候学特征与南海地区有较     

South China Sea Monsoon Experiment （SCSMEX） and the East Asian Monsoon

The SCSMEX is a joint atmospheric and oceanic experiment by international efforts, aiming at studying the onset, maintenance, and variability of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, thus improving the monsoon prediction in Southeast and East Asian regions. The field experiment carried out in May-August 1998 was fully successful, with a large amount of meteorological and oceanographic data acquired that have been used in four dimensional data assimilations by several countries, in order to improve their numerical simulations and prediction. These datasets are also widely used in the follow-up SCS and East Asian monsoon study. The present paper has summarized the main research results obtained by Chinese meteorologists which cover six aspects: (1) onset processes and mechanism of the SCS summer monsoon; (2) development of convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during the onset phase and their interaction with large-scale circulation; (3) low-frequency oscillation and teleconnection effect; (4) measurements of surface fluxes over the SCS and their relationship with the monsoon activity; (5) oceanic thermodynamic structures, circulation, and mesoscale eddies in the SCS during the summer monsoon and their relationship with ENSO events; and (6) numerical simulations of the SCS and East Asian monsoon.     

冬季台风“南玛都”结构性质的初步研究

利用1982～2001年NCEP/NCAR再分析的周平均SST场、逐日表面热通量场及近地层10米高度风场资料,分析了南海地区季风爆发前后几周南海多年平均SST随时间的变化和空间分布特征及其影响因子.结果表明,南海季风爆发前,SST急剧升高,季风爆发后,SST的变化呈现比较明显的空间差异,南海北部SST继续上升,而南部SST持续下降.南海季风爆发前,海面净得热,这是季风爆发前南海SST上升的主要原因.季风爆发后几周,海面净得热减少,此时的海表净热通量收支与SST无显著相关.而季风爆发期和爆发后几周,南海SST变化的不均匀性与西南气流具有很好的相关性,南海的降温区呈东北-西南走向,与低层西南气流的方向一致.因而,在季风爆发后的一段时间内,近地层风场导致的海洋表面及内部动力过程是影响南海SST变化的另一重要因子.     

南海季风试验与东亚夏季风

南海季风试验是一次国际性大气与海洋的联合试验 ,旨在更好地了解南海季风的爆发、维持与变化 ,以改进东亚和东南亚地区的季风预报。 1998年 5～ 8月进行的外场试验取得了圆满成功 ,获得了大量气象与海洋资料。不少国家对这些资料进行四维资料同化 ,并改进数值模拟和预报 ;同时也为东亚与南海地区季风的研究提供了必要的资料集。文中总结了中国科学家在这方面的主要研究成果 ,共包括 6个方面 :(1)南海夏季风的爆发过程与机理 ;(2 )南海季风爆发过程中对流与中尺度系统的发展及其与大尺度环流的相互作用 ;(3)低频振荡与遥相关作用 ;(4 )南海海 气通量的测量及其与季风活动的关系 ;(5 )夏季风时期南海海洋的热力结构、环流和中尺度涡旋及其与ENSO事件的关系 ;(6 )南海与东亚季风的数值模拟。     

南海西南季风爆发的气候特征

利用多年的海洋船舶、岛屿站和沿岸站观测记录及卫星观测的高反射云（ＨＲＣ）资料，揭示南海西南季风爆发和建立时期的环流特征及要素变化。在南海，西南季风爆发的平均时间为５月中旬，北部略早（５月１２日），南部略迟（５月２０日），但年际差别可达一个月左右。伴随着西南季风的爆发，南海云量和降水量增多，对流加强，但海区之间具有很大的不均匀性。西南季风建立以后，强对流区稳定于南海中部，季风雨带没有明显的跳跃现象。西南季风爆发之前，南海表层温度迅速升高，其开始时间较季风爆发约提前一个月，海面水温的升高为季风爆发提供了热量和水汽条件。４—５月，南海海面热交换分量（海面吸收的太阳辐射、潜热输送等）发生明显的改变，特别是潜热交换和蒸发量明显增大，它可能是西南季风首先在南海爆发的原因之一。     

An Analysis of the Characteristics of Monsoon Onset over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in 2010

Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, the background atmospheric circulation and the characteristics of meteorological elements during the period of the Bay of Bengal monsoon (BOBM) and the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon (SCSM) in 2010 are studied. The impacts of the BOBM onset on the SCSM onset and the relationship between the two monsoons are also analyzed. The two main results are as follows. (1) The BOBM onset obviously occurs earlier than the SCSM onset in 2010, which is a typical onset process of the Asian monsoon. During the BOBM’s onset, northward jump, and eastward expansion, convective precipitation and southwest winds occurred over the SCS, which resulted in the onset of the SCSM. (2) The relationship among strong convection, heavy rainfall, and vertical circulation configuration is obtained during the monsoon onsets over the BOB and SCS, and it is concluded that the South Asian High plays an important role in this period.     

APPLICATION OF HYSPLIT MODEL IN DEFINITION OF THE ONSET OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON

Using NCEP reanalysis data and an airflow trajectory model based on the Lagrangian method, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, the daily backward trajectories on the height of 850 hPa above the South China Sea (SCS) area are simulated from April to June. The onset date of the SCS summer monsoon from 1948 to 2009 is determined according to the simulated source of airflow in the monitored area of the SCS. By analyzing the SCS monsoon onset dates over the 62 years, we found that the number of years in which the SCS monsoon onset is earlier accounts for 13%, and the later years 14%, the normal years 73%, of all the 62 years. Analyses with the Lagrangian method, done in comparison with the other two methods which combine wind and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature, were performed to determine the onset dates of the SCS summer monsoon. In some years, the source of the southwest airflow in the monitored area of the SCS is in the subtropical region before the onset of the SCS monsoon, so the airflow from the subtropics can be distinguished with the airflow from the tropics by using the Lagrangian method. The simulation by the trajectory model indicated that in some years, after the onset of SCS summer monsoon, the SCS will be controlled by the southeast wind instead of the southwesterly usually expected.     

南海夏季风活动的年际和年代际特征

利用NCEP风场资料和候平均向外长波辐射（OLR）资料分析了南海区域低层风场与对流活动的关系,在此基础上,采用南海中南部的纬向风平均值来定义南海夏季风的爆发,确定了长序列（1949～1998）的南海夏季风爆发日期和强度指数,并研究南海夏季风活动的年际和年代际变化特征。结果表明：南海夏季风爆发日期和强度指数呈显著的反相关;50年来的气候趋势是,爆发日期逐渐偏晚,强度指数逐渐减弱。二者都存在着明显的年际和年代际变化,它们在不同阶段上的波动是各种时间尺度振荡叠加的结果,而年代际尺度具有非常重要的作用。东印度洋海温异常在南海夏季风爆发前后,均与南海夏季风强度指数呈显著的反相关。东太平洋海温异常在南海夏季风爆发之前,与强度指数反相关,而爆发之后,与强度指数正相关。这体现了南海夏季风活动与ENSO事件的密切关系。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

The time and space variations of the ten-day mean surface sensible heat flux have beenanalyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP/NCAR from January of 1979 to December of1995 in the South China Sea(SCS)monsoon region.It is found that large variations of the surfacesensible heat flux standard deviations exist in the northwestern Indochina Peninsula and the IndianPeninsula regions,and their locations and strength change significantly during the onset period ofSCS monsoon.The negative deviations appear evidently earlier in the Indocbina Peninsula than inthe Indian Peninsula but the deviation strength in the Indian Peninsula is stronger than that in theIndochina Peninsula.The appearance of the zonal negative mean deviations in the southern part ofthe Indochina Peninsula corresponds to the date of the SCS summer monsoon onset,while theoccurrence of the deviation decrease corresponds to the date of the South Asian monsoon onset.The sensible heat flux increases dekad by dekad before the onset of the summer monsoon in theIndian Peninsula and the Indochina Peninsula and decreases after the monsoon onset.Therefore,the surface sensible heat flux changes in the Indochina and the Indian Peninsula regions maybe havesome connections with the SCS monsoon onset and the Indian monsoon onset,and the IndochinaPeninsula maybe becomes the sensitive or key region to the SCS monsoon onset and the land maybeplays an important role in triggering summer monsoon onset.     

南海夏季风降水的区域差异及其突变特征

使用1950~1997年NCAR/NCEP再分析逐日降水资料,采用聚类和相关分析相结合的方法对南海夏季风降水进行了区域划分,分析了南海夏季风降水爆发前后南海降水的突变特征。结果表明:南海 105~120°E,0~20°N区域可划分为 SCS1区、SCS2区、SCS3区和SCS4区4个小区域,每个区域的降水有其各自不同的变化特征。前三个区域的降水变化不显著,不能反映南海夏季风降水爆发的突然性,变化最显著的是SCS4区,它最好地刻画了南海夏季风降水的变化特征,因此,我们选取它作为今后工作中南海夏季风降水的研究范围。突变检验表明,5月17日,南海SCS4区降水发生明显的突变,与5月15日相比,SCS4区降水场形势发生明显变化,其区域平均降水突增超过6 mm/day,标志着南海夏季风降水的爆发。     

1998年南海西南季风活动的初步分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和OLR、SST观测数据,分析了1998年南海西南季风的建立日期、强度的多时间尺度变化特征、与海面温度的相互作用以及对广东降水的影响.得出南海西南季风建立的日期为5月17日(5月4候).1998年为弱季风年,OLR具有1个月左右的振荡周期,西南风具有半个月左右的振荡周期.孟加拉湾地区季风和105°E越赤道气流是南海季风低频变化的重要策源地.1998年南海季风弱,主要是由于初春赤道东太平洋海温正距平,并导致南海-阿拉伯海海温正距平的结果.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET*

The time and space variations of the ten-day mean surface sensible heat flux have been analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP/NCAR from January of 1979 to December of 1995 in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region.It is found that large variations of the surface sensible heat flux standard deviations exist in the northwestern Indochina Peninsula and the Indian Peninsula regions,and their locations and strength change significantly during the onset period of SCS monsoon.The negative deviations appear evidently earlier in the Indocbina Peninsula than in the Indian Peninsula but the deviation strength in the Indian Peninsula is stronger than that in the Indochina Peninsula.The appearance of the zonal negative mean deviations in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula corresponds to the date of the SCS summer monsoon onset,while the occurrence of the deviation decrease corresponds to the date of the South Asian monsoon onset.The sensible heat flux increases dekad by dekad before the onset of the summer monsoon in the Indian Peninsula and the Indochina Peninsula and decreases after the monsoon onset.Therefore,the surface sensible heat flux changes in the Indochina and the Indian Peninsula regions maybe have some connections with the SCS monsoon onset and the Indian monsoon onset,and the Indochina Peninsula maybe becomes the sensitive or key region to the SCS monsoon onset and the land maybe plays an important role in triggering summer monsoon onset.     

南海西南季风爆发日期及其影响因子

利用1950～1999年NCEP全球格点日平均资料,在总结南海西南季风爆发前后850 hPa大气环流特征的基础上,提出了一个较为客观的确定南海西南季风爆发日期的大气环流方法.在与1980～1991年其他多种指标确定的爆发日期比较后,作者认为该大气环流方法所确定的爆发日期基本合理,并给出了1950～1999年各年南海西南季风爆发的日期.通过合成对比分析和相关分析发现,前期热带太平洋地区海温异常分布是影响南海西南季风爆发早晚的重要因素.菲律宾以东洋面海温偏高,赤道太平洋中部偏东地区海温偏低,可以使低层西太平洋副高减弱、高层中东太平洋洋中槽加深,印度洋热带地区偏西风偏强,印度洋-太平洋热带地区Walker环流偏强,为热带对流在孟加拉湾-南海地区发展提供了有利的环境.在孟加拉湾南部偏西气流的作用下,南海地区对流活动较为容易发展起来,低层较弱的西太平洋副热带高压也容易较早地撤出南海上空,使得南海西南季风较早爆发.反之亦然.     

一种基于整层水汽通量的南海夏季风爆发指数

利用1951～2000年的NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析风场、比湿和海平面气压资料,得到南海区域的整层水汽通量。根据南海夏季风爆发前后水汽通量的特征分析,定义了南海夏季风爆发指数IVIMT,并确定出1951～2000年南海夏季风的爆发日期。通过分析发现,利用该指数可以合理地确定南海夏季风的爆发时间。     

南海季风区地面温度变化特征及其与季风爆发的联系

分析1979年1月至1995年12月17a南海季风区修平均地面温度资料的时空变化特征发现，中南半岛西北部和印度半岛分别为地面修平均温度标准差的大值区，其位置和强度在南海季风爆发前后月份具有显著差异。从候平均温度纬圈偏差的时间演变来看，中南半岛地区纬圈温度偏差由正转负的时间早于印度半岛地区，并分别与南海夏季风和印度夏季风爆发的时间其本对应。在夏季风爆发之前，印度半岛和中南半岛地区的地面温度是逐候增加的，季风爆发以后地面温度迅速降低，而海洋上的表面温度增温幅度明显小于与其相邻地陆地，此外，从南海季风爆发早晚年中南半岛与南海地区表面温度距平差和各自温度距平的时间演变看，中南半岛地区地面温度的变化在触发南海季风爆发及其年际变化过程中可能起主导作用。     

THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA I.40-YEAR AVERAGE

By using 40-year NCEP reanalysis daily data (1958-1997), we have analyzed the climatic characteristics of summer monsoon onset in the South China Sea (105°E ~ 120°E, 5°N ~ 20°N, to be simplified as SCS in the text followed) pentad by pentad (5 days). According to our new definition, in the monsoon area of the SCS two of the following conditions should be satisfied: 1) At 850hPa, the southwest winds should be greater than 2m/s. 2) At 850 hPa, θ_se should be greater than 335°K. The new definition means that the summer monsoon is the southwest winds with high temperature and high moisture. The onset of the SCS summer monsoon is defined to start when one half of the SCS area (105°E ~ 120°E,5°N ~ 20°N) is controlled by the summer monsoon. The analyzed results revealed the following: 1) The summer monsoon in the SCS starts to build up abruptly in the 4th pentad in May. 2) The summer monsoon onset in the SCS is resulted from the development and intensification of southwesterly monsoon in the Bay of Bengal. 3) The onset of the summer monsoon and establishment of the summer monsoon rainfall season in the SCS occur simultaneously. 4) During the summer monsoon onset in the SCS, troughs deepen and widen quickly in the lower troposphere of the India; the subtropical high in the Western Pacific moves eastward off the SCS in the middle troposphere; the easterly advances northward over the SCS in the upper troposphere.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF 10-DAY MEAN SURFACE LATENT HEAT FLUX VARIATIONS IN THE SCS MONSOON REGION AND POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS WITH THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET*

The temporal and spatial variations of the ten-day mean surface latent heat flux (TMLH) have been analyzed in this paper based on the data of NCEP from January of 1979 to December of 1995 in the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon region.It is found that there exist maximum centers of TMLH standard deviation in the northwest Indochina and the Indian Peninsula as well as the western Pacific,SCS,the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal,and their locations and strengths change significantly during the period of SCS monsoon onset.A positive zonal deviation of TMLH occurs first in the Indochina Peninsula,apparently earlier than that in the Indian Peninsula.The appearance of maximum positive zonal deviations of TMLH approximately coincides with the summer monsoon onset.Over the Indochina and Indian Peninsulas,the TMLH increases gradually with a small amplitude of variation before the onset of summer monsoon,and the rate of increase is significantly enhanced after the onset of the monsoon; whereas over the ocean,TMLH decreases before the monsoon onset,varies little during the period of monsoon and increases gradually after the ending of monsoon.Therefore,it seems that the surface latent heat flux plays an important role in the maintenance of the summer monsoon,and its variation is an phenomenon accompanying the onset of summer monsoon.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS OF THE IMPACTS OF LOCAL LAND-SEA THERMODYNAMIC CONTRASTS ON THE SCS SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

1INTRODUCTIONAmongdrivingfactorsfortheEastAsianmonsoonareplanetary-scaleland-seathermodynamiccontrast(e.g.betweentheEurasiancontinentandthePacificOcean)andsub-planetary-scaleone(e.g.betweentheIndochinaandtheSouthChinaSea).ItisovertheSouthChinaSea(SCS)andadjoiningareasthattheEastAsiansummermonsoonfirstbreaksout.ItthenadvancestotheregionsofEastAsiaandSouthAsia.ItisthereforenaturaltofindlocalgeographicandtopographiceffectsoftheSCSregionevidentlyshownontheonsetoftheSCSsummermonsoon…