SARETL: an expert system for probabilistic displacement-based dynamic 3-D slope stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides

 Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. In the 3-D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading and consider the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem, i.e. uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in situ values of shear strength parameters, randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake-induced acceleration. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program, PTDDSSA (probabilistic three-dimensional dynamic slope stability analysis). These developed analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL (stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides) that was developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces; the developed system takes into consideration the local site effects. The code is capable of: 1. Prediction of permanent deformations that result from landslides under seismic loading using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. 2. The assessment of landslide hazard that affects major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes, and the preparation of earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps (i.e. maps that show expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquakes magnitudes and environmental conditions. 3. Proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides and suggesting guidelines for remedial measures. The developed expert system is applied to a major highway case study. Design maps are developed for the highway under seismic loading. Received: 18 March 1999 · Accepted: 11 October 1999     

A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.     

基于Newmark模型的概率地震滑坡危险性模型参数优化与应用: 以鲁甸地震区为例

应用概率地震危险性评价模型进行地震滑坡危险性区划,是解决潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评价中震源不确定性与诱发滑坡时空不确定性的有效方法.通过理论分析,结合鲁甸地震区的实际情况,对基于力学原理的Newmark滑块位移模型与概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法中的参数的不确定性问题进行了分析,将斜坡岩土体地震作用下的强度衰减效应、地震加速度地形放大效应、断层破碎带效应融合到了斜坡累积位移计算模型中,进行了模型计算参数的优化.改进后的分析模型,更好地反映了高陡斜坡地形与断层破碎带对地震滑坡灾害发育的控制作用,在鲁甸地震区域滑坡应用中,优化模型中的滑坡失稳极高风险区与实际地震滑坡分布表现出了较好的一致性,在超越概率2%的滑坡失稳概率分布中,鲁甸地区包谷垴—小河断裂、鲁甸—昭通断裂带及牛栏江河谷地带地震滑坡高—极高风险区分布面积增幅十分显著.因此,在Newmark滑块位移模型中考虑地震动参数与岩土参数动态响应规律与变量间的定量关系,对于提高区域斜坡稳定性分析的可靠性具有重要意义.      

Performance-based assessment of earthquake-induced catastrophic landslide hazard in liquefiable soils

This paper outlines a methodology for evaluating the likelihood of catastrophic landslide occurrence on gentle slopes in liquefiable soils during earthquake. The approach is based on a modified Newmark sliding block model of assessing the earthquake-induced undrained landslide displacements for conditions of no shear stress reversals on the sliding surface. By employing the shear resistance-displacement relationship from undrained monotonic ring shear tests, the simulation model incorporates the sensitivity of computed displacements to variations in yield acceleration. The proposed approach involves an examination of undrained seismic slope performance under various horizontal seismic waveforms scaled to different specific values of the peak earthquake acceleration. An example problem illustrates how the proposed methodology may be used to demarcate, based on the magnitude of permanent seismic displacement, the levels of low, moderate and high risk of catastrophic landslide on a gentle slope in a saturated cohesionless soil susceptible to liquefaction during earthquake.     

Seismically induced landslide displacements: a predictive model

Newmark's model for predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements provides a simple way to predict the coseismic displacements affecting a sliding mass subject to earthquake loading. In this model, seismic slope stability is measured in terms of critical acceleration, which depends on the mechanical soil properties, pore-pressure distribution, and slope geometry. The triggering seismic forces are investigated in terms of energy radiation from the source, propagation, and site effects, based on 190 accelerometric recordings from 17 Italian earthquakes with magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.8. The method is based on the calibration of relations having the general form of an attenuation law that relates the energy of the seismic forces to the dynamic shear resistances of the sliding mass to propagate the expected landslide displacements as an inverse function of the distance from the fault rupture; the amount of displacement computed through these relations provides a criterion to predict the occurrence of slope failures. Finally, maps showing, in a deterministic and a probabilistic way, the potential of seismically induced landslide displacements are displayed as a tool to provide seismic landslide scenarios and earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps, respectively.     

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.     

Modeling uncertainty in stability analysis for design of embankment dams on difficult foundations

A probabilistic 3-D slope stability analysis model (PTDSSAM) is developed to evaluate the stability of embankment dams and their foundations under conditions of staged construction taking into consideration uncertainty, spatial variabilities and correlations of shear strength parameters, as well as the uncertainties in pore water pressure. The model has the following capabilities: (1) conducting undrained shear strength analysis (USA) and effective stress analysis (ESA) slope stability analysis of staged construction, (2) incorporation of field monitored data of pore water pressure, and (3) incorporation of increase of undrained shear strength with depth, effective stress, and pore water pressure dissipation. The PTDSSAM model is incorporated in a computer program that can analyze slopes located in multilayered deposits, considering the total slope width.

The main outputs of the program are the geometric parameters of the most critical sliding surface (i.e., center of rotation/radius of rotation and critical width of failure), mean 2-D safety factor, mean 3-D safety factor, squared coefficient of variation of resisting moment, and the probability of slope failure. The program is applied to a case study, Karameh dam in Jordan. Monitored data of induced pore water pressure in the dam embankment and soft foundation were gathered during dam construction.

The stability of Karameh dam embankment and foundation was evaluated during staged construction using deterministic and probabilistic analysis. Foundation stability was evaluated based on the monitored data of pore water pressure.

The study showed that the mean values of the corrective factors which account for the discrepancies between the in situ and laboratory-measured values of soil properties and for the modeling errors have significant influence on the 2-D safety factor, 3-D safety factor, slope probability of failure, and on the expected failure width.

The degree of spatial correlation associated with shear strength parameters within a soil deposit also influences the probability of slope failure and the expected failure width. This correlation is quantified by scale of fluctuation. It is found that a larger scale of fluctuation gives an increase in the probability of slope failure and a reduction in the critical failure width.     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

堆积层滑坡地震动力响应的物理模型试验

以玉树7.1级地震诱发的玉树机场路堆积层滑坡为对象,该滑坡坡度约为10o,长×宽×厚为317 m×482 m×19.8 m,由以碎石土为主的上覆层、卵石土为主的滑动带及基岩3层组成,开展大型振动台模型试验,探究震后边坡再次承受振动荷载的能力以及地震垂直分量对坡体稳定性的贡献,分析其动力响应特征和失稳破坏机制。结果表明,强震作用下堆积层滑坡的永久变形是造成地震地质灾害的重要因素;随着输入地震荷载增大,坡脚率先破碎沉降,坡体中部产生弧形裂隙并产生沉降,坡顶出现贯穿张裂隙和剪切裂隙并向坡腰推进,表现出典型的牵引性滑坡特征;峰值加速度(PGA)、动土压力以及加速度频谱与输入地震波的强度、滑坡高程呈正相关;PGA放大系数呈现出明显的非线性特征,其变化趋势随地震荷载强度增大而减小,地震波垂直分量对滑坡PGA放大系数影响略大于水平分量。     

Estimating location and size of historical earthquake by combining archaeology and geology in Umm-El-Qanatir,Dead Sea Transform

We study the Byzantine-to-Ummayad (6th–8th century) archaeological site of Umm-El-Qanatir, located 10 km east of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in northern Israel. The site was damaged by an earthquake-induced landslide, and in this work we use slope stability analysis to constrain the historical seismic acceleration that occurred along the northern segment of the DST. Umm-El-Qanatir archaeological site is located on a slope of a canyon and contains evidence for earthquake-related damage, including fallen columns and walls, horizontal shift of heavy masonry blocks, and complete burial of ceramic pots and farming tools beneath fallen ceilings. A water pool that collected spring water is displaced nearly one meter by the landslide. The artifacts from the village and the spring area indicate that people inhabited the site until the middle of the 8th century. We argue that the destruction, which forced the abandonment of Umm-El-Qanatir together with nearby settlements, was associated with the earthquake of January 18, 749 CE. In order to evaluate the ground acceleration related to the above earthquake, we back-analyze the stability of a failed slope, which cut and displaced the water-pool, using slope stability software (Slope/W). The results show that the slope is statically stable and that high values of horizontal seismic acceleration (>0.3 g) are required to induce slope failure. Subsequently, we use the Newmark displacement method to calculate the earthquake magnitude needed to cause the slope failure as a function of distance from the site. The results (attributed to the 749 CE earthquake) show that a M_W > 7.0 earthquake up to 25 km from the site could have induced the studied landslide.     

基于简化 Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估以汶川MS 8.0级地震为例

以汶川MS8.0级地震重灾区的11县市为例,初步提出了基于简化Newmark位移模型的地震滑坡危险性应急快速评估方法。利用汶川地震即时地震动参数、工程地质岩性经验分组及地形坡度数据,借助ArcGIS空间数据建模工具编制了地震滑坡危险性快速评估流程模块。计算了区域浅表层饱和岩土体斜坡的静态安全系数Fs、临界加速度ac,并借此分析了地震滑坡易发性。利用经验式获得了汶川地震Arias强度和区域滑坡位移DN分布,实现了汶川地震重灾区地震滑坡危险性的快速评估,为应急救灾决策提供了参考。通过对比评估结果和震后滑坡调查成果,可知数十处灾难性滑坡绝大部分位于-高危险区的龙门山主中央断裂带两侧约20km地带中,显示了评估方法的可靠性; 同时,分析指出了空间数据精度及更新不足导致局部评估结果欠佳的局限性,并提出了改进建议。     

Seismic stability analysis of soil nail reinforced slope using kinematic approach of limit analysis

Prediction of the critical seismic yield acceleration coefficient and the seismic permanent displacement of soil nail reinforced slope under seismic loading has been playing an important role in helping design in the earthquake-prone areas. In this paper, the seismic stability of soil nail reinforced slope is analyzed using the kinematic theorem of limit analysis. The log-spiral failure mechanism is considered and the corresponding analytical expressions are derived to calculate the critical seismic yield acceleration coefficient and the permanent displacement of slope subjected to earthquake loading. A series of calculations are carried out to illustrate the influence of inertial force on the stability of a nail-reinforced slope. Parametric studies indicate that the strength and geometry of slope as well as characteristic parameters of soil nail have a significant effect on the critical seismic yield acceleration coefficient and the permanent displacement of soil nail reinforced slope.     

悬臂式抗滑桩加固黏土边坡地震永久位移算法

为了有效地确定悬臂式抗滑桩加固的黏土边坡地震永久位移,基于极限分析上限定理,针对圆弧滑动式土坡破坏模式,通过对设置抗滑桩条件下土坡进行外力功率和内能耗散率的计算,按严格力学定义推导出坡体在地震作用下的安全系数,进而导出与安全系数相对应的边坡地震屈服加速度计算公式,并结合Newmark滑块位移法对边坡产生的转动加速度进行二次积分,推导出与边坡设计安全系数密切相关的坡体地震永久位移的详细计算公式。以5.12汶川地震卧龙测站东向地震波为例,通过对一算例边坡进行分析,给出了边坡永久位移时程曲线以及不同设计安全系数与永久位移的关系,分析了算法与Ambraseys算法的结果,验证了所提计算方法的有效性,并得到不同设计安全系数时边坡土体黏聚力和内摩擦角对坡体永久位移的影响规律。研究结果表明,坡体永久位移随着设计安全系数的增加逐渐呈指数函数式减小变化,在较低设计安全系数下,坡体永久位移受土体抗剪强度参数影响较为敏感,随着设计安全系数的提高,这种敏感性则逐渐降低。     

Empirical-based seismically induced slope displacements in a geographic information system environment: a case study

Landslides are one of the most damaging and threatening hazards associated with seismically induced slope movements. Estimations of support conditions for slope displacements are important for taking preventive measures to avoid landslide events in future. California's Division of Mines and Geology (DMG) procedure is utilised in the present paper for estimating the slope failure mechanism under seismic conditions. In this study, the DMG procedure has been explained and has also been incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) using Arc-GIS software from Environmental Systems Research Institute. Further, it is utilised for establishing a seismically induced slope displacement map for the Skien municipality area of Telemark County in Norway. The motivation for selecting this site was the availability of geotechnical parameters for the site. Three different displacement maps have been produced for earthquake scenarios of magnitude 5, 6 and 7, respectively. The maximum displacement of 133 cm is estimated for earthquake scenario of magnitude 7. It is noticed that the sensitive areas for slope failure remain the same under different earthquake scenarios. A displacement tool based on the DMG procedure has been created in the Arc-tool box in Arc-GIS software. This tool minimises the efforts for inserting formulas for making raster displacement maps. By using the displacement tool one can generate final products like displacement maps automatically at high accuracy and in quick time. The prepared slope displacement maps of study area are used for landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) map preparation. The LSZ maps are useful for landslide hazard assessment and further can be utilised by planners, civil engineers and local administrators for town planning and policy-making.     

碎石土路堑高边坡地震动力响应过程分析

以功东高速大营盘碎石土深路堑高边坡为研究对象,对其用有限差分软件FLAC3D模拟分析,在低频高幅的地震波作用下,深入考虑网格划分和输入波以保证模拟的准确性,以此来研究高烈度地区地震作用下高边坡开挖及时支护的工序下的自然和降雨工况不同的变形和动力响应规律。结果表明:（1）在静力开挖支护阶段,开挖主要影响范围为开挖面附近的土体,位移主要为回弹变形,随着开挖深度的增加,回弹位移增加变缓。向下坡方向的位移趋势从坡脚开始产生,在降雨工况下所有坡面测点均产生向下坡方向位移。（2）地震作用下,坡体会产生多条剪切带倾泄能量,而地震降雨工况下产生坡顶到坡脚的贯通剪切带,成整体失稳趋势。（3）输入地震波峰值及其在此峰值点的位移响应存在时间差,且此点位移也不是位移最大值,降雨对中上部坡体位移影响较大,会使位移较自然工况下几乎成倍增加。（4）在地震中下坡方向的水平位移越大,其加速度响应越有降低的趋势,且越往坡体内部,降雨对加速度响应影响越不明显。     

地震作用下黄土斜坡失稳及运动过程的离散元模拟

在山区,地震诱发滑坡造成的人员伤亡往往占到地震总伤亡人数的一半以上,尤其是在黄土地区,由于地震造成的黄土滑坡具有运动距离远等特征,其灾难性更严重。针对地震诱发黄土斜坡的失稳峰值加速度、临界位移和运动距离等问题,本文利用离散元（PFC）方法,通过对室内三轴实验的应力-应变曲线进行标定和高精度航拍三维地形数据进行转化,以宁夏海口村黄土斜坡为研究对象,开展三维地震作用下斜坡失稳破坏和运动过程的数值模拟研究。通过监测不同位置在地震作用下的应力分量,计算监测点的p、q值并与室内三轴实验所得到p-q破坏线进行比较,获得斜坡破坏过程中的应力路径。结合颗粒的监测位移,获得斜坡失稳破坏的临界位移,得出该黄土斜坡失稳峰值加速度为0.135 g,临界位移为50 cm。同时根据不同地面环境条件,预测了在不同摩擦系数下斜坡失稳后的危害范围,为黄土地区边坡工程的抗震设计及防震减灾工作提供一种新的可视化方法。     

Regional landslide susceptibility following the Mid NIIGATA prefecture earthquake in 2004 with NEWMARK’S sliding block analysis

This study proposes a calculation method for regional earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility that applies the permanent seismic displacement calculated using Newmark’s sliding block analysis with estimated vertical and horizontal seismic motions. The proposed method takes into account the direction of slope failure based on the specified slope azimuth. The study results reveal the importance of predominant slope failure direction using a simple infinite slope model subjected to earthquakes. The target area for the earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility analysis constituted a region of more than 2000 km² surrounding the epicenter of the Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake in 2004. An earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility map was created based on the proposed method with a specific combination of friction angle and cohesion, and the resulting data were compared to the landslide inventory map produced from aerial photographs following the Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake in 2004. To create the susceptibility map, geomaterial cohesion values for the slope were back-calculated to satisfy the minimum safety factor in the static state. This study also proposes a calculation method for the prediction rate and determines the back-calculated strength parameters of geomaterials. The proposed regional landslide susceptibility map will be useful for understanding potential slope failure locations and magnitude of damage, as well as for planning field investigation and preventing secondary disasters immediately after earthquakes.     

汶川地震崩滑灾害影响因素分析

为研究汶川地震崩滑灾害主要影响因素,在掌握汶川地震灾区公路沿线地震崩滑灾害资料基础上,选取典型段进行灾害统计分析,研究表明动力条件下斜坡失稳主要受斜坡岩体结构特征、地震动峰值加速度和斜坡动力响应特征三方面因素影响。地震动峰值加速度越高,地震崩滑灾害越发育。斜坡动力响应特征主要取决于地形地貌和地层岩性,陡坡硬岩段为地震崩滑灾害高发区。斜坡岩体结构是控制斜坡变形破坏的主要因素,从研究斜坡动力失稳角度,提出了斜坡岩体结构类型的划分,分为土层及强风化层——基岩二元结构、块状结构、层状及似层状结构、碎裂结构、土层等5个大类12个亚类。     

地震作用下顺层岩质边坡动力响应和破坏模式大型振动台试验研究

5•12汶川大地震触发了大量的顺层岩质滑坡,对其进行研究很有必要。根据动力模型试验的相似关系,设计制作了1个坡角大于岩层倾角的尺寸(高×长×宽)为1.6 m×1.75 m×0.8 m的顺层模型边坡,并完成了大型振动台试验。试验结果表明,在坡体表面和内部竖直方向上,加速度放大系数随着坡体高程增加而增大,并且随着高程增加,加速度放大系数增大的速度加快;在坡体内同一高程上,坡面处的加速度放大系数大于一定水平深度坡体内部的加速度放大系数,表现出趋表效应;地震波输入频率对坡体动力响应有明显影响,随着频率的增加,越接近坡体的自振频率,加速度放大效应越显著;加速度放大系数随着输入波振幅的增加,总体上表现为递减趋势;通过和均质边坡振动台试验加速度监测数据对比,发现坡体结构对坡体加速度放大系数也有一定的影响,结构面对地震波的反射和折射作用加大了坡体加速度的放大效应。,对试验过程中坡体破坏特征的描述和分析发现,边坡的破坏模式为地震诱发－坡肩拉裂张开－坡面中部出现裂缝－裂缝贯通－发生高位滑坡－转化为碎屑流－堆积坡脚。研究成果对地震灾区滑坡形成机制的认识和减灾防灾有一定的价值。