Modeling surficial sand and gravel deposits

Mineral-deposit models are an integral part of quantitative mineral-resource assessment. As the focus of mineral-deposit modeling has moved from metals to industrial minerals, procedure has been modified and may be sufficient to model surficial sand and gravel deposits. Sand and gravel models are needed to assess resource-supply analyses for planning future development and renewal of infrastructure. Successful modeling of sand and gravel deposits must address (1) deposit volumes and geometries, (2) sizes of fragments within the deposits, (3) physical characteristics of the material, and (4) chemical composition and chemical reactivity of the material. Several models of sand and gravel volumes and geometries have been prepared and suggest the following: Sand and gravel deposits in alluvial fans have a median volume of 35 million m³. Deposits in all other geologic settings have a median volume of 5.4 million m³, a median area of 120 ha, and a median thickness of 4 m. The area of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from volume using a regression model (log [area (ha)] =1.47+0.79 log [volume (million m³)]). In similar fashion, the volume of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from area using the regression (log [volume (million m³)]=–1.45+1.07 log [area (ha)]). Classifying deposits by fragment size can be done using models of the percentage of sand, gravel, and silt within deposits. A classification scheme based on fragment size is sufficiently general to be applied anywhere.     

Probabilistic Estimates of Number of Undiscovered Deposits and Their Total Tonnages in Permissive Tracts Using Deposit Densities

Empirical evidence indicates that processes affecting number and quantity of resources in geologic settings are very general across deposit types. Sizes of permissive tracts that geologically could contain the deposits are excellent predictors of numbers of deposits. In addition, total ore tonnage of mineral deposits of a particular type in a tract is proportional to the type’s median tonnage in a tract. Regressions using size of permissive tracts and median tonnage allow estimation of number of deposits and of total tonnage of mineralization. These powerful estimators, based on 10 different deposit types from 109 permissive worldwide control tracts, generalize across deposit types. Estimates of number of deposits and of total tonnage of mineral deposits are made by regressing permissive area, and mean (in logs) tons in deposits of the type, against number of deposits and total tonnage of deposits in the tract for the 50th percentile estimates. The regression equations (R ² = 0.91 and 0.95) can be used for all deposit types just by inserting logarithmic values of permissive area in square kilometers, and mean tons in deposits in millions of metric tons. The regression equations provide estimates at the 50th percentile, and other equations are provided for 90% confidence limits for lower estimates and 10% confidence limits for upper estimates of number of deposits and total tonnage. Equations for these percentile estimates along with expected value estimates are presented here along with comparisons with independent expert estimates. Also provided are the equations for correcting for the known well-explored deposits in a tract. These deposit-density models require internally consistent grade and tonnage models and delineations for arriving at unbiased estimates.     

Statistical Characteristics of Xenoliths in the Antioch Kimberlite Pipe,Marshall County,Northeastern Kansas

Geometrical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe have been considered in statistical terms. A method of conversion of 2D intersections to 3D dimensions was used. It has been shown that the Rosin-Rammler distribution of mass leads to the Weibull distribution of sizes, whereas a fractal distribution of sizes can be expressed as the Pareto distribution. Lognormal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions have been tested as model distributions. The Pareto distribution could be the most appropriate model for the distribution of xenoliths. This conclusion is in agreement with the general concept that the xenoliths formed as a result of an underground explosion without additional breakage occurring during magma transport. The final distribution may be shifted from the initial model as a result of processes of redistribution and sorting of xenoliths in liquid-crystalline flows.     

METHODOLOGY: A SIMPLE RAINFALL SIMULATOR AND TRICKLE SYSTEM FOR HYDRO-GEOMORPHOLOGICAL EXPERIMENTS

A simple rainfall simulator is described which consists of stand-alone sprinkling units with cone jet nozzles that spray downward. With a fall height of 4.57 m and water pressure of 67 kPa, the median drop size of the simulated rainfall is 2.40 mm. Rainfall from two units irrigating a 2 by 2.5 m plot has a total kinetic energy of 0.57 J/m²/s which is approximately 90% of the equivalent energy of natural rainfall at the simulation intensity of 72.4 mm/h. To simulate overland flow, perforated trickle pipes were designed that permit overland flow rates to be readily adjusted and closely controlled by simply varying the input water pressure. In field experiments in southern Arizona, rates between 572 to 1400 cm³/s were generated from a 19-mm pipe. Given their low cost, simplicity, and portability, the rainfall simulator and trickle system should be attractive to researchers working in a wide variety of geomorphic environments.     

Centrifuge model test on performance of thermosyphon cooled sandbags stabilizing warm oil pipeline buried in permafrost

The thaw settlement of pipeline foundation soils in response to the operation of the first China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline along the eastern flank of the northern Da Xing'anling Mountains in Northeast China was simulated in a physical model test(with a similitude ratio of 1/73) in a geotechnical centrifuge. Two pipes of a supported and an unsupported section were evaluated over a testing period for simulating 20 years of actual pipeline operation with seasonal cyclically changing oil and ambient temperatures. The results show that pipe settlement of the supported pipe was 45% of settlement of the unsupported pipe. Settlement for the unsupported section was approximately 35% of the thaw bulb depth below the initial pipe elevation, only 30% of that for the supported pipe due to the influence of the supports. The final thaw bulbs extended approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times of the pipe diameter below the unsupported and supported pipe bottom elevations, respectively. The sandbag supports kept frozen during the test period because of cooling effect of the thermosyphons. The maximum bending stress induced over the 20 m span length from bearing of the full cover over the pipe would be equivalent to40% specified minimum yield strength(SMYS). Potential buckling of the pipe should be considered as the ground thaws.This study also offers important data for calibration and validation of numerical simulation models.     

Monte Carlo Simulations of Product Distributions and Contained Metal Estimates

Estimation of product distributions of two factors was simulated by conventional Monte Carlo techniques using factor distributions that were independent (uncorrelated). Several simulations using uniform distributions of factors show that the product distribution has a central peak approximately centered at the product of the medians of the factor distributions. Factor distributions that are peaked, such as Gaussian (normal) produce an even more peaked product distribution. Piecewise analytic solutions can be obtained for independent factor distributions and yield insight into the properties of the product distribution. As an example, porphyry copper grades and tonnages are now available in at least one public database and their distributions were analyzed. Although both grade and tonnage can be approximated with lognormal distributions, they are not exactly fit by them. The grade shows some nonlinear correlation with tonnage for the published database. Sampling by deposit from available databases of grade, tonnage, and geological details of each deposit specifies both grade and tonnage for that deposit. Any correlation between grade and tonnage is then preserved and the observed distribution of grades and tonnages can be used with no assumption of distribution form.     

The Acoustics of Pipe Arrays

Summary A theoretical analysis is given for the acoustical behaviour of the pipe-microbarograph systems used to detect acoustic gravity waves and other modes of infrasound. It is shown how to compute the response of the microbarograph to a fluctuating pressure at any one inlet port of the pipe and how the results of such computations may be used to calculate the response to a plane sound wave traversing the system.
The analysis is illustrated by numerical examples obtained by means of a computer program. These examples confirm that the tapered tube modelled after Daniels' line microphone has very good characteristics, but that good results may also be obtained using pipes of uniform bore. The work leans heavily on Benade's calculations of sound propagation in a circular conduit.     

Information structure analysis for quantitative assessment of mineral resources and the discovery of a silver deposit

We propose an information-structure-analysis (ISA) method to quantify the correlations between quantitative and qualitative variables as well as within each type of variable. This method is applied to the evaluation of mineral resources in the western Zheijiang Province of China. The district contains a number of silver-bearing Fe–Cu–Pb–Zn mineral deposits near igneous complexes and FeCuPbZn zones away from the complexes. Silver anomalies occur not only in the known Fe–Cu–Zn–Pb deposits, but also in the country rock, suggesting the possible existence of silver deposits far from the igneous complexes.The tonnage distribution of silver is modeled by Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation is conducted on the basis of the correlations between silver (Ag) and lead (Pb), since no known data on silver is available. The known tonnage distribution of lead in 11 control cells was used to approximate the tonnage distribution of silver in the Monte Carlo simulation. With ISA and Monte Carlo methods, the total amount of potential polymetallic resources in 49 cells in the western Zhejiang Provice is predicted. Significantly, a deposit with about 24 tonnes of silver has been found within our exploration target area.     

Statistical sampling of the distribution of uranium deposits using geologic/geographic clusters

The concept of geologic/geographic clusters was developed particularly to study grade and tonnage models for sandstone-type uranium deposits. A cluster is a grouping of mined as well as unmined uranium occurrences within an arbitrary area about 8 km across. A cluster is a statistical sample that will reflect accurately the distribution of uranium in large regions relative to various geologic and geographic features. The example of the Colorado Plateau Uranium Province reveals that only 3 percent of the total number of clusters is in the largest tonnage-size category, greater than 10,000 short tons U₃O₈, and that 80 percent of the clusters are hosted by Triassic and Jurassic rocks. The distributions of grade and tonnage for clusters in the Powder River Basin show a wide variation; the grade distribution is highly variable, reflecting a difference between roll-front deposits and concretionary deposits, and the Basin contains about half the number in the greater-than-10,000 tonnage-size class as does the Colorado Plateau, even though it is much smaller. The grade and tonnage models should prove useful in finding the richest and largest uranium deposits.     

Support and Information Effect Modeling for Recoverable Reserve Estimation of a Beach Sand Deposit in India

Application of geostatistics in estimating recoverable reserves of beach sand deposit is rare. This paper made an attempt to estimate local recoverable reserves using disjunctive kriging and discrete Gaussian model considering support and information effects for a beach sand deposit located in the eastern part of India. The dependence of different selective mining unit (SMU) sizes and different production sampling strategies on the estimated tonnage, metal quantity, and the ore tonnage versus metal quantity relationships has been examined. The results of the study show that nonlinear geostatistics should be used for more precise assessment of the grade, ore tonnage, and metal quantity and their relationships, which are necessary for recoverable reserve estimation. In selective mining operation, both support and information effects have significant influence on recoverable reserve. Recoverable reserve estimation based on SMU involves estimating grade distributions of mining unit with much bigger support than the available drill core sample data. Information effect comes into picture from the real scenario where the actual grades of the blocks remain unknown even during mining. At the mining stage, discrimination of ore and waste blocks is carried out based on estimated grades of the production samples and it is likely that the blocks might be misclassified as either ore or waste and thus sent to wrong destination. Information effect modeling makes the estimation more reliable by taking care of misclassification.     

Typing Mineral Deposits Using Their Grades and Tonnages in an Artificial Neural Network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further.Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage).Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag.Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.     

Estimates of Number of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc in the United States

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits offer a unique perspective on the nation's undiscovered mineral resources. As part of the 1998 assessment of undiscovered deposits of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc, estimates of the number of deposits were made for 305 of the 447 permissive tracts delineated in 19 assessment regions of the country. By aggregating number of undiscovered deposits by deposit type and by assessment region, a picture of the nation's undiscovered resources has emerged. For the nation as a whole, the mean estimate for the number of undiscovered deposits is 950. There is a 90% chance there are at least 747 undiscovered deposits and a 10% chance there are as many as 1,160 undiscovered deposits. For Alaska, the mean estimate for the number of undiscovered deposits is 281. There is a 90% chance there are at least 168 undiscovered deposits and a 10% chance there are as many as 402 undiscovered deposits. Assuming that the majority of deposits used to create the grade and tonnage models that formed the basis for estimating the number of undiscovered deposits are significant deposits, there remain about as many undiscovered deposits as have already been discovered. Consideration of the number of undiscovered deposits as part of national assessments carried out on a recurring basis serves as a leading indicator of the nation's total mineral resources.     

Stable isotope constraints on the fluid source of hydrothermal breccia pipes in the Tankwa Karoo depocentre,South Africa: Breakdown of authigenic minerals during sill intrusion

The Karoo Basin covers much of South Africa and is an area of prospective shale gas exploration, with the Whitehill Formation the target shale unit. However, the sedimentary succession, including the Whitehill, has been intruded by a series of sills and dykes associated with the Karoo Large Igneous Province (~183 Ma), which are expected to have modified the thermal history of the basin dramatically. Here, we investigate a secondary effect of these intrusions: a series of hydrothermal vent complexes, or breccia pipes, focusing on using O, H, and C isotopes to constrain the origin and evolution of fluids produced during the intrusion of basaltic sills. A cluster of breccia pipes have been eroded down to the level of the Ecca Group at Luiperdskop on the western edge of the Karoo basin; a small isolated pipe of similar appearance crops out 13 km to the east. The Luiperdskop pipes are underlain by a Karoo dolerite sill that is assumed to provide the heat driving fluidization. The pipes consist of fine‐grained matrix and about 8% clasts, on average, of mostly sedimentary material; occasional large rafts of quartzite and dolerite are also present. The presence of clasts apparently from the Dwyka Group is consistent with the depth of formation of the pipes being at, or near, the base of the Karoo Supergroup, between 400 and 850 m below present surface. The presence of chlorite as the dominant hydrous mineral is consistent with an emplacement temperature between 300 and 350°C. The major and trace element, and O‐ and H‐isotope composition of the Tankwa breccias is homogenous, consistent with them being derived from the same source. The δ¹⁸O values (vsVSMOW) of the breccias are relatively uniform (7.1‰–8.7‰), and are similar to that of the country rock shale, and both are lower than expected for shale. The water content of the breccia is between 2.7 and 3.1 wt.% and the δD values range from ?109‰ to ?144‰. Calcite in vesicles has δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O (VSMOW) values of ?4.2‰ and 24.0‰, respectively. The low δD value of the breccia rocks does not appear to be due to the presence of methane in the fluid. Instead, it is proposed that low δD and δ¹⁸O values are the result of the fluid being derived from the breakdown of clay minerals that formed and were deposited at a time of cold climate at ~290 Ma.     

Quantitative assessment of future development of cooper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest,Idaho/Montana: Part I—Estimation of the copper and silver endowments

Faced with an ever-increasing diversity of demand for the use of public lands, managers and planners are turning more often to a multiple-use approach to meet those demands. This approach requires the uses to be mutually compatible and to utilize the more valuable attributes or resource values of the land. Therefore, it is imperative that planners be provided with all available information on attribute and resource values in a timely fashion and in a format that facilitates a comparative evaluation.The Kootenai National Forest administration enlisted the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines to perform a quantitative assessment of future copper/silver production potential within the forest from sediment-hosted copper deposits in the Revett Formation that are similar to those being mined at the Troy Mine near Spar Lake. The U.S. Geological Survey employed a quantitative assessment technique that compared the favorable host terrane in the Kootenai area with worldwide examples of known sediment-hosted copper deposits. The assessment produced probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits that may be present in the area and of the copper and silver endowment that might be contained in them.Results of the assessment suggest that the copper/silver deposit potential is highest in the southwestern one-third of the forest. In this area there is an estimated 50 percent probability of at least 50 additional deposits occurring mostly within approximately 260,000 acres where the Revett Formation is thought to be present in the subsurface at depths of less than 1,500 meters. A Monte Carlo type simulation using data on the grade and tonnage characteristics of other known silver-rich, sediment-hosted copper deposits predicts a 50 percent probability that these undiscovered deposits will contain at least 19 million tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of silver. Combined with endowments estimated for identified, but not thoroughly explored deposits, and deposits that might also occur in the remaining area of the forest, the endowment potential increases to 23 million tonnes of copper and 190,000 tonnes of silver.     

Space Deformation Non-stationary Geostatistical Approach for Prediction of Geological Objects: Case Study at El Teniente Mine (Chile)

This article addresses the problem of the prediction of the breccia pipe elevation named Braden at the El Teniente mine in Chile. This mine is one of the world’s largest known porphyry-copper ore bodies. Knowing the exact location of the pipe surface is important, as it constitutes the internal limit of the deposit. The problem is tackled by applying a non-stationary geostatistical method based on space deformation, which involves transforming the study domain into a new domain where a standard stationary geostatistical approach is more appropriate. Data from the study domain is mapped into the deformed domain, and classical stationary geostatistical techniques for prediction can then be applied. The predicted results are then mapped back into the original domain. According to the results, this non-stationary geostatistical method outperforms the conventional stationary one in terms of prediction accuracy and conveys a more informative uncertainty model of the predictions.     

Israel's petroleum discovery curve

Oil exploration in Israel began in 1953. Until 1991 a total of 263 exploration wells and 122 development wells were drilled, 3 oil fields and 5 gas fields were discovered, and 4 noncommercial oil discoveries and 1 noncommercial gas discovery were made. Proven in-place reserves amount to 70 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). Exploration focused on six main plays: Syrian Arc anticlines; Mesozoic platform-edge, structural-stratigraphic traps; the Dead Sea graben; Early Mesozoic structures; Saqiye Group biogenic gas; and Hula Group biogenic gas. The more significant discoveries are associated with the first two plays. Ninety percent of the proven reserves were discovered by the first 71 wildcats, which constitute 27 percent of all wildcats drilled to date. During this phase of exploration, the average success was 7 percent, and the average discovery rate was 0.88 MMBOE per wildcat. Most of the following 192 wildcats were dry holes. If, as experts claim, significant reserves are still undiscovered, previous exploration must be deemed inefficient. The quantitative model of the discovery process also leads to such an assessment.     

Mima-type mounds in southwest Missouri: Expressions of point-centered and locally thickened biomantles

Mima-type mounds, formed in gravelly soils of the Diamond Grove Prairie Natural Area near Joplin, Missouri, are the focus of this study. Emphasis is on the spatial and morphological aspects of the mounds, and more particularly on the analysis of mound soils and gravel distributions as a means for shedding light on mound origins in this region. The results strongly suggest that hierarchically dominant point-centered bioturbation by small vertebrates is the mode of mound genesis. Pocket gophers (Geomys bursarius), aided by other biota, create mounds as they burrow in residual gravelly soils that have evolved dense, relatively impermeable claypans that perch water during wet periods. Although pocket gophers do not presently inhabit the Diamond Grove area, evidence of past occupation, along with laboratory and field data, support them as the dominant role in forming the mounds. We conclude that these mounds are expressions of point-centered and locally thickened biomantles. Various subsidiary processes such as aeolian inputs, water erosion, and physical and chemical weathering also have genetically impacted Diamond Grove mounds.     

Oil resources for the next century: What's ahead?

Proven reserves of liquid hydrocarbons are now assessed at between 950 and 1,000 billion barrels, depending on the source. Their life expectancy at the current rate of world production is about 41 to 45 years. This lifetime is much longer than what was predicted in both 1970 and 1980. However, this wealth of resources does not necessarily mean that the security of oil supplies is guaranteed for all countries. Oil reserves are unequally distributed from a geopolitical standpoint. Reserves and output are mainly due to big fields (with more than 500 million barrels of initial reserves).Though oil supplies seem to be ensured for the coming 30 to 40 years, what does the picture look like beyond 2020–20307 The increased lifetime of proven oil reserves has been apparent only in the last 10 to 20 years. The considerable increase in proven oil reserves reported after 1986 is, in fact, mainly due to revisions and extensions, rather than to new sources of oil: conventional oil (with the price per barrel of oil on the order of $20 and recovery rate around 30 percent) remaining to be discovered today; oil resources stemming from an improvement in recovery rate; oil resources resulting from exploitation of new zones, such as deep sea zones; and unconventional types of oil, such as extra-heavy crudes, tar sands, shale oils, and liquid hydrocarbons from chemical-enhanced oil recovery methods.