近50 a来中国不同流域降水的变化趋势分析

利用我国612个气象站1961—2010年逐日降水量资料,借助地理信息系统Arc GIS,分析了我国十大流域的年、季节降水量的时空变化趋势特征。结果表明,我国降水主要集中在珠江、东南诸河和长江流域,西北诸河流域降水最少;四季降水量与年降水量的空间分布特征高度相似;降水量均为夏季最多,冬季最少。就年降水量而言,西北诸河流域有变湿趋势,海河流域和黄河流域有变干趋势。就降水季节而言,西南诸河、松花江、西北诸河流域春季有变湿趋势;东南诸河流域和长江流域夏季有变湿趋势,海河流域和西南诸河流域夏季有变干趋势;西北诸河流域秋季有变湿趋势,长江流域、黄河流域和淮河流域秋季有变干趋势;松花江流域、西北诸河流域和长江流域冬季有变湿趋势。     

利用环境同位素技术研究沈阳浑河与地下水的水力联系

查明地下水与河水之间的水力联系,是研究浑河污染水体对地下水环境影响的前提。采用环境同位素技术研究浑河沿岸地下水演化规律,沿浑河冲洪积扇地下水流动方向取地下水样13个、河水样3个。结果表明:通过对水样进行D(氘)、18O分析,查明了浑河与地下水之间的水力联系,确定了河水对地下水的补给宽度,定量计算了河水对沿岸地下水的贡献比例。从浑河的上游至下游,河水对地下水的贡献比例由大变小,平均约为50%;河水对地下水强补给带位于浑河以南约1 km的范围内,二者的水力联系密切。     

Modelling the Interaction Between a River Surface and the Atmosphere at the Bottom of a Valley

The role of a river of small dimensions in driving the surface exchange of sensible and latent heat fluxes at the bottom of a valley is investigated using large-eddy simulation (LES). Simulations were performed using different valley topographies, river widths and large-scale wind speed and direction. In all cases, the river acted as a sink of both sensible and latent heat during daytime. Despite the general agreement concerning the flux direction above the river surface, specific differences exist between the simulations. The topography enhances the wind divergence caused by the river, and the larger negative surface fluxes above the river occur when there are no slopes, a consequence of larger wind speeds above the river. For large-scale winds aligned with the valley axis, the surface fluxes depend on the large-scale wind speed, but this dependence is reduced if the large-scale wind is perpendicular to the valley axis. There is a minimum of temperature and a maximum of specific humidity above the river surface. The scalar budgets show that sensible heat flux converges above the river, being balanced by the warm air subsidence at the centre of the valley. Latent heat fluxes, on the other hand, converge above the river surface, and they are balanced by the horizontal advection of humidity towards the river margins.     

黄河流域代表水文站径流和降水量变化的初步分析

通过对1995—1990年共36a黄河上游和中游两个代表站径流量和区域降水量资料的季节和年际变化趋势的分析，初步揭示了黄河不同流域降水量和径流量之间的关系，发现虽然黄河上游区域平均降水量距平的变化在夏季和秋季呈下降趋势，但代表黄河上游的兰州水文站径流量在夏季和秋季却呈现出明显的上升变化趋势，而黄河中游区域平均降水量距平的变化在夏季和秋季呈下降趋势，代表黄河中游的花园口水文站径流量在夏季和秋季也呈现出明显的下降变化趋势。因此，在比较长时间的气候趋势上，黄河中游地区径流量异常与降水量异常变化趋势是一致的，降水量异常是影响径流量异常的主要因子。而在黄河上游地区径流量异常与降水量异常变化趋势并不一致，降水量减少的同时径流量却增加，这可能与伴随着降水量减少的全球增暖所引起的高原冰川和积雪融化等因素有关。因此，影响黄河上游径流量的因素除了降水等自然因子外，其它因子诸如上游的径流量、人类活动、全球增暖等也同样会影响黄河上游的径流量。     

黑龙江开、封江日期变化趋势及影响因子分析

利用黑龙江(漠河江段)的1971～2004年开、封江日期资料,分析黑龙江开、封江日期的变化趋势及影响因子。通过分析表明,黑龙江开江日期1971～1987年呈偏晚趋势,1987～2000年呈偏早趋势,并存在3～5年的周期;黑龙江封江日期1971～1982年呈偏早趋势,1982～2000年呈偏晚趋势,并存在5～7年的周期。由影响因子分析知,3月欧亚纬向环流平直时,开江日期易偏早;10月副高西伸脊点偏东、副高面积小、副高脊线位置偏北时,封江日期易偏早。反之亦然。     

气候变暖对黑龙江省水稻发展的影响及其对策的研究

80年代气候变暖使黑龙江省热量明显增加，尤其黑龙江、松花江、乌苏里江流域热量增加明显。气候变暖使三江平原东北部降水有不同程度的增加。分析全省地表径流、旱涝区划，提出了水稻发展的最佳种植区。并根据目前水资源和最大供水量状况，预测了黑龙江省2010年发展水稻种植面积为2000年的160％，进而指出发展水稻种植的重点应放在黑龙江下游，挠力河与乌苏里江之间。     

Monitoring of the ice jamming process in rivers using spatiotemporal plots of the water levels

A methodology of plotting of the water levels along a river and its using for (1) finding places where ice jamming is possible, (2) estimation of the maximum levels caused by jams, and (3) estimation of risks of flooding in ungauged river sections is presented. For the Northern Dvina River case study, isolines of the 2003 river flood levels are plotted for the entire river length and places of possible jams are defined by using the proposed approach.     

Evening Transition by a River Sampled Using a Remotely-Piloted Multicopter

Measurements made with instruments aboard a remotely-piloted multicopter flying across the Weser river in Germany provide information on the thermal structure of the boundary layer over the river and adjacent land, in this case in summer for late afternoon, the evening transition and early night on a clear calm day. The river has a characteristic width of 100 m. The stratification over the land and river are of opposite signs at the lower levels, except during part of the evening transition. The multicopter allows to qualitatively estimate the evolution of the thermal contrast between both surfaces, showing that the river banks experience very significant daytime cooling and nocturnal warming due to river-bank circulations, with the change of sign taking place well before sunset.     

长江上游暴雨对1998年长江洪峰影响的分析

通过对１９９８ 年长江上游四川境内暴雨、雨量水文资料、卫星云图等分析,归纳出了１９９８ 年长江上游暴雨的基本特点,认识到长江上游暴雨、高原天气系统与四川云团的活动对１９９８ 年长江洪峰的形成有直接影响。     

流域洪涝定量描述及江西省48a流域洪涝分析

分别对单站洪涝强度、流域集中期洪涝强度和流域汛期洪涝强度进行了定量描述。并对1951～1998年江西省5大流域的洪涝分别进行了比较分析,得出了各大流域近半世纪10大洪涝集中期、10大洪涝汛期和南北分片10大洪涝年。     

中国主要河流流域极端降水变化特征

利用中国1956-2008年逐日降水量资料,以全国主要河流流域为研究区域,分析了年最大日降水量、年暴雨（日降水量≥50.0 mm）日数的多年平均状况及长期变化趋势。分析表明,近53年,全国平均年最大日降水量没有明显的线性变化趋势,但全国范围内多数气象站点年最大日降水量呈现出增加趋势,并存在南方流域增加、北方流域减少的变化趋势,这种变化特征在2001年以来表现更加突出。全国平均年暴雨日数呈不显著的增多趋势,20世纪90年代最多,70年代最少。空间上,我国南北方流域年暴雨日数呈现相反的变化特征,南方流域多呈上升趋势,北方流域呈减少趋势。     

Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model

This study presents an off-line global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP hydrological model including a two-way flood scheme. The flood dynamics is indeed described through the daily coupling between the ISBA land surface model and the TRIP river routing model including a prognostic flood reservoir. This reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the critical river bankfull height and vice versa. The flood interacts with the soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. The model is evaluated over a relatively long period (1986–2006) at 1° resolution using the Princeton University 3-hourly atmospheric forcing. Four simulations are performed in order to assess the model sensitivity to the river bankfull height. The evaluation is made against satellite-derived global inundation estimates as well as in situ river discharge observations at 122 gauging stations. First, the results show a reasonable simulation of the global distribution of simulated floodplains when compared to satellite-derived estimates. At basin scale, the comparison reveals some discrepancies, both in terms of climatology and interannual variability, but the results remain acceptable for a simple large-scale model. In addition, the simulated river discharges are improved in term of efficiency scores for more than 50% of the 122 stations and deteriorated for 4% only. Two mechanisms mainly explain this positive impact: an increase in evapotranspiration that limits the annual discharge overestimation found when flooding is not taking into account and a smoothed river peak flow when the floodplain storage is significant. Finally, the sensitivity experiments suggest that the river bankfull depth is potentially tunable according to the river discharge scores to control the accuracy of the simulated flooded areas and its related increase in land surface evaporation. Such a tuning could be relevant at least for climate studies in which the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation are generally poorly represented.     

A study of spatial structure of conditions of river network formation

Catchments of first-order streams in the Chita River basin in Zabaikal’skii krai are studied in order to reveal the spatial structure of conditions influencing the river network formation. The river network construction was carried out using the TAS GIS (Terrain Analysis System Geographic Information System) software and SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) digital terrain model. The comparison of the TAS river network with the river network of topographic maps enables to reveal the distribution of conditions of river network formation for the territory of the basin as well as the type and degree of their impact on the surface runoff. The obtained data enabled to group the basin streams according to these conditions and to reveal favorable and unfavorable areas for the first-order stream initiation.     

基于水生态功能分区的寇河水系水环境容量研究

河流水环境容量是实行污染物排放总量控制的理论依据,也是河流水环境管理的科学基础。本文采用综合标识指数法识别河流水质污染状况及主要污染指标,对寇河水系水生态功能分区进行水质评价,水生态功能分区是基于对流域水生态系统的区域差异的研究而提出的一种分区方法;采用一维稳态水质模型模拟河流水质变化规律,并结合线性规划模型,计算寇河上游水生态较高功能区、寇河中游水生态较低功能区、南城子水生态较高功能区的COD_Cr和NH₄-N的水环境容量。结果表明：寇河上游水生态较高功能区COD_Cr和NH₄-N的水环境容量分别为852.22t·a^-1、47.96t·a^-1;寇河中游水生态较低功能区COD_Cr和NH₄-N的水环境容量分别为410.33t·a^-1、23.09t·a^-1;南城子水生态较高功能区CODCr和NH4-N的水环境容量分别为25.23t·a^-1、1.58t·a^-1。     

1960-2009年石羊河流域气候变化特征

利用线性倾向率和Mann-Kendall非参数检验及克里金（Kriging）空间插值法,分析石羊河流域气温、降水量和蒸发量3个气候要素的年代际时空变化特征。结果表明：1960-2009年石羊河流域气温最小增速为0.25 ℃/10 a,高于中国及全球平均增速,且石羊河流域东部地区增温速度大于流域西部;20世纪60年代石羊河流域气温为降低趋势,其他年代流域大部地区均为增温趋势,且这种增温趋势是突变的。石羊河流域各年代及50 a平均降水量流域西部地区均比东部地区增加明显,近50 a石羊河流域降水量的变化趋势大多数未通过显著性检验,流域降水量的变化是由于降水的年际振荡造成的。近50 a石羊河流域大部地区的蒸发量呈先减少后增加的趋势,除民勤外,流域各地区蒸发量的减少或增加均存在突变。石羊河流域气温持续升高和蒸发量增加及二者的协同关系可能导致区域干旱的加剧。     

京津唐水资源分析及预测

分析了京津唐水资源与海滦河流域４０站夏季降水量的关系。结果表明，水资源总量与降水量的逐年变化是相当一致的，降水对京津唐水资源有显著影响的区域在滦河中下游、永定河、大清河上游及滏阳新河。建立了显著影响区域降水量与水资源量的关系方程，复相关系数达０．９６。还指出，受气侯变化影响京津唐水资源逐年代递减趋势是非常明显的，尤以入境水的减少最为突出，应引起足够的重视。还探讨了水资源的预测方法，以冬季南支急流指     

气候变化对滦河流域水资源影响的水文模式模拟(Ⅰ)降水径流模式系统（PRMS）介绍及其在滦河流域的移植

简单介绍了引进美国地质勘查中心发展的降水径流模式系统（PRMS）。认为PRMS模式具有多种模拟功能，包含的物理过程也较全面，是当前世界上较好的水文学模式。将PRMS模式系统移植到滦河流域，并对其模拟能力进行了初步检验。结果表明，模式系统在我国滦河流域的移植比较成功，而且能够较真实地再现滦河流域河川径流量及水资源其它分量的年际及季节变化，也可以用于研究气候变化对滦河流域水资源的影响。     

The role of different links of the river net in forming winter river runoff

Results of investigations of the winter river runoff formation in the Northern Dvina River basin (without the Vychegda River basin) are under consideration. The peculiarities of the winter runoff formation are revealed from the analysis of the conditions of the runoff reduction in different parts of the river basin. A regulatory effect of the upper links of the river net on the lower links is established.     

河西走廊黑河流量的气候特征及其预报

本文利用黑河流量资料，分析了径流本身的持续性、周期性及年际变化。统计表明，4月径流与前期2月青藏高原地面加热场强度存在较好的正相关。前期500 hPa高度距平特征可预示未来5月黑河流量。     

辽河流域水生态功能一级分区指标体系与技术方法

流域水生态功能分区是实现流域综合管理的重要基础,也是水环境管理由水质目标管理向流域水生态管理转变的重要依据。根据辽河流域大尺度水生态空间格局分异的自然属性,结合国内外相关生态环境分区的研究进展,通过对辽河流域水热比（P/T）、径流深（RD）、数字高程（DEM）、多年归一化植被指数（NDVI）和水文地质（RP）等自然因素、河流水环境因子及水生生物指标的典型相关分析（CCA）,筛选出DEM、RD、RP、NDVI指数作为水生态功能一级分区的主要因子,并依此建立了辽河流域水生态功能一级分区指标体系与分区技术方法。结果表明：辽河流域可分为4个水生态功能一级区,即西辽河上游内蒙古大兴安岭东南—冀北山地丘陵水生态区、西辽河中下游西辽河平原水生态区和辽河中下游平原水生态区及浑河—太子河上游山地丘陵水生态区。辽河流域多年历史数据与野外水生态调查数据分析表明,流域内鱼类聚类分析结果与水生态功能一级分区结果在空间分布上具有较好的吻合性。水生态功能分区结果为辽河流域水生态综合管理提供了科技支撑,同时也为中国水生态功能分区技术方法的制订提供了参考依据。