广东省东莞市1998～2003年生态足迹计算与分析

利用生态足迹模型定量研究广东省东莞市1998～2003年的可持续发展状况.结果表明,6年来东莞市的总生态足迹显现较快的上升趋势,每年平均增长12.9%,总生态承载力也是逐年上升(9%),但总生态赤字越来越大;从生态足迹的供需结构看,耕地和化石燃料用地的供需矛盾非常突出,林地、草地和水域供需相对较小.总的来说,东莞市的生态足迹已远超过其生态承载力,已对生态系统构成极大压力.从长远发展看,东莞市应该发展知识经济和循环经济,控制人口数量,并倡导新的生活方式和消费方式,同时要加强替代资源开发研究,以实现该地区发展     

新疆艾比湖地区生态足迹与生态承载力研究

文章对艾比湖地区2003年的生态足迹进行了计算和分析。结果显示，2003年艾比湖地区的人均生态足迹为4．222hm^2，而实际生态承载力为3．193hm^2，人均生态赤字为1．029hm^2。表明艾比湖地区的发展模式处于一种不可持续的状态。从该区人均生态足迹的供给需求结构看，耕地、建筑用地、林地、化石燃料用地出现人均生态赤字，表明艾比湖地区经济发展处于初级阶段，主要以消耗当地土地和能源资源来满足人们最基本的生活需求。水域、草地虽出现人均生态盈余，但这并不意味着绝对生态供给丰富，主要与地方采取的改善生态环境质量措施等有关。     

松花江流域哈尔滨段最小生态用地需求研究

在分析1986—2017年松花江流域哈尔滨段生态用地格局演变的基础上,采用改进的生态足迹模型测算维持生态系统平衡的最小生态用地面积。结果表明:1986—2017年研究区生态用地面积呈下降趋势,转移速率变化由大到小依次为其他生态用地、水域、耕地、草地、林地,且1996—2006年生态用地活跃程度最高; 1996—2017年耕地的空间稳定性最好,林地和水域次之,其他生态用地的空间稳定性最差;研究区生态系统服务供需失衡,2017年人均生态盈余为-0.821 10 hm2/人,出现了生态赤字,维持生态系统平衡需要4 919. 32 km2耕地或3 330.13 km2草地或1 382.03 km2林地或856. 95 km2水域。最后,提出退耕还林、其他生态用地还林、非生态用地转耕地3种生态用地调整战略。     

中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力构成的变动规律

基于熵值法提出能够衡量生态足迹和生物承载力构成多样性的生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数两个新概念,计算并构建了中国人均生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数较为理想的ARIMA预测模型分别为ARIMA(2,1,1)、ARIMA(1,1,1).结果表明,2006～2010年,中国人均生态足迹构成指数将在波动中有所下降,生物承载力构成指数持续下降,未来4年可持续发展潜力在波动中也将有所降低.中国人均生态足迹构成指数与10个驱动因素的偏最小二乘回归分析发现,正相关因素依次为城镇人口、第一产业产值、总人口、进出口贸易总额、第三产业产值,负相关因素依次为政府消费、农业人口、居民消费、人均GDP、第二产业产值.     

生态足迹法在长沙县生态县建设中的应用

通过运用生态足迹计算方法,对长沙县2005年的生态足迹进行了计算,得出长沙县人均生态足迹是2.52hm^2/人,以及全县人均生态承载力为0.60 hm^2/人,从而可以看出全县人均生态赤字为1.92 hm^2/人,远远高于全国平均水平。全县生态赤字最多的是化石燃料土地,然后依次为耕地、水域、草地,这表明全县对自然环境的影响已经大大地超出了生态环境承载力,工业的飞速发展对化石燃料的消耗和耕地的占用的急剧增加是产生生态赤字的主要原因,同时人们生活水平的提高也对生态环境造成极大的压力。     

基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测

生态承载力是测度区域社会经济发展对资源与环境系统压力程度的重要标尺。基于生态足迹法,构建生态承载力的评价与预测模型,分别评价和预测了2010年与2015年天山北坡经济带的生态足迹和承载力。结果表明：2010年天山北坡经济带生态足迹组分以草地和能源用地为主,约占足迹总量的93%,人均生态承载力总体高于人均生态足迹;2015年生态承载状况仍然总体盈余。但随着人口快速增长以及人均消费能力提高,2015年人均生态承载力已经低于2010年水平,城镇化对未利用地的开发形成用地总量供给的增加可能是维持生态盈余的主要原因之一。经济发展与城镇化进程对区域可持续发展造成一定压力,需要对资源环境承载能力加强监测预警。     

黄土台塬区土地利用转移流及空间集聚特征分析

提出了土地利用转移流和土地利用活跃度的概念,基于Landsat 遥感影像数据,采用土地利用变化测度模型,以5 年和25 年两种时间尺度对黄土台塬区土地利用时空动态特征进行分析,并将密度制图法应用到土地利用变化的空间集聚特征识别中.研究表明：① 黄土台塬区耕地占绝对优势,后备耕地资源严重不足,林地、草地、水域比例较低,存在较大生态风险;② 耕地与建设用地、草地、林地之间的转移关系是黄土台塬区土地利用转移的关键关系,决定着台塬区土地利用变化特征;③ 1985-2010 年耕地转建设用地流高达26668.80 hm²,占土地转移流40.75%,草地转耕地流18923.90 hm²,占28.91%,建设占用耕地情况严重,耕地占补平衡主要通过挤占草地实现;④ 25 年以来,土地利用变化对水域扰动最大,其次为森林,草地第三;⑤ 土地利用变化存在阶段性,1990-2000 年土地利用变化速率高于其他时段;⑥不同时间尺度下土地利用变化的空间集聚特征不同,25 年尺度下城镇附近土地变化幅度较高,5 年尺度下土地利用变化热点区由台塬中部向东西边缘区推移.     

基于生态足迹的甘肃省耕地资源可持续利用与情景预测

 基于生态足迹理论,测算了1997-2009年甘肃省在保持社会经济可持续发展下的最佳耕地资源容量,运用ARIMA模型对甘肃省2010-2015年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测,按照《甘肃省国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》中的社会经济指标对耕地资源可持续发展容量进行情景预测。结果表明：1997-2009年,甘肃省耕地资源可持续发展容量总体上呈现上升趋势,其中1997-2002年耕地资源可持续发展容量基本低于实际耕地面积,2003-2009年,耕地资源可持续发展容量均高于实际耕地面积,出现耕地利用负荷现象;ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2010-2015年,甘肃省人均耕地生态足迹呈现上升趋势,年平均增长率为4.75%,人均耕地生态承载力呈现减少趋势,但总体上变化不大,人均耕地生态赤字从2011年成为负值,并且逐渐增加;情景预测结果显示2010-2015年,甘肃省耕地资源可持续发展容量与实际耕地面积差距愈来愈大,预计到2015年,为实际耕地面积的2.42倍,耕地利用负荷现象严重,人地关系紧张。     

皖江示范区生态资产格局时空变化与驱动因素（英文）

随着社会经济的快速发展,人们对自然资源和生态环境的认识越来越深刻,生态资产价值评估已成为人们关注的焦点。研究采用遥感影像解译的土地利用数据,对1990-2013年皖江示范区46个地区的生态资产进行了测算,并分析其生态资产的分布、组成、变化模式及其驱动因素。结果表明:1)皖江示范区生态资产分布非常不平衡,中部比其他地区生态资产高,且在1990-2013年期间先下降再升高;2)生态资产总量增长了3.05%,总体变化不大,退化和增加的面积比例较小;3)草地和水域的生态资产分别下降11.19%和0.66%,尤其是耕地下降了15.54%,但是林地增加了6.42%;4)在生态资产的变化格局中,合肥的人均资产减少幅度最大;5)影响皖江示范区生态资产时空变化的因素包括自然因素和人为因素,其中景观格局、人口和气候因素是生态资产格局时空变化的主要动力因素。     

能值生态足迹改进模型研究——以新疆为例

传统能值生态足迹模型因未考虑社会经济发展因素而导致"生态偏向"的弱可持续性评价结果。以新疆为例,引入社会经济间接生态承载力以改进传统模型,使其计算结果更科学合理。结果表明:2005-2014年新疆的(1)生态足迹呈波浪上升趋势,年均值为4.9 hm2·人~(-1),低于西北地区平均水平。主要土地类型所占比重大小依次为:草地、耕地、石化能源用地、林地。(2)生态承载力变化不大,年均值为4.5 hm2·人~(-1),和西北地区相比,新疆的生态承载力处于中低水平。(3)生态赤字为0.4 hm2·人~(-1),是西北地区的33.9%。综上所述,新疆产生生态赤字的核心原因是过大的农牧业生产和重工业能耗,其可持续发展潜力较弱导致生态安全存在潜在风险。     

"省公顷"在小城镇生态足迹分析中的应用研究——以山东省晏城镇生态建设为例

为了更真实地反映同一个省内镇域的生态负荷及其生态容量现状,在综合分析了有关生态足迹模型的优缺点后,提出以"省公顷"为计量单位计算小城镇生态足迹的模型。用全球公顷(gha)和省公顷(pha)两种方法分别对晏城镇2004年生态足迹进行计算。计算结果表明:晏城镇2004年生态足迹采用gha 方法的计算结果为1.711 hm²/人,采用pha方法计算结果为1.210 hm²/人;该镇生物承载力采用gha 方法计算结果为0.985 hm²/人,采用pha方法计算结果为1.034 hm²/人;前者计算得到晏城镇生态赤字为0.726 hm²/人,后者为0.176 hm²/人。比较晏城镇和山东省各类土地类型的生态赤字/盈余,得出了晏城镇在耕地、林地和建筑用地都存在生态盈余,在化石能源用地、水域和草地存在生态赤字,分析造成生态赤字/盈余的原因,并提出相应对策。     

Characteristics of Agricultural and Livestock Products Trade Flows between China and the “Belt and Road” Initiative Region: From the Perspective of Biocapacity

In the context of global ecological overload, international trade has become one of the most important ways to make up for the ecological deficit. This study takes the “Belt and Road” Initiative as the study area to analyze the biocapacity and ecological footprint characteristics between China and other countries along the “Belt and Road” Initiative. Trade flow characteristics were explored from the perspective of biocapacity. The import and export of virtual land was used to assess the effect of trade on compensating for the resource gaps in crop and grazing land. The main results show that: 1) In 2005-2014, the majority of “Belt and Road” countries were experiencing increasing degrees of overload. In China, cropland takes up the largest proportion of biocapacity, while the ecological footprint is dominated by the carbon footprint. 2) The trade flow of agricultural and livestock products in the mainland of China shows a trend of increasing imports and decreasing exports, which increases dependence on specific regions. 3) In 2005-2014, China’s trade in cereals and oil crops along the “Belt and Road” Initiative were generally net imports, and the share of cereals traded along the “Belt and Road” Initiative is increasing gradually, but that of oil crops decreased rapidly. 4) The import trade has alleviated ecological deficit, as the selected products compensated for 1.03 times of the cropland deficit and 0.65 times of the grazing land deficit in China. This study is helpful to understand the relationship between the land use and trade deeply, and provide decision-making references for reducing ecological deficits, optimizing land resource allocation, and promoting win-win cooperation among China and other countries in the “Belt and Road” Initiative.     

Landuse/landcover changes in Zhangye oasis of Hexi Corridor

Taking two false color composite Landsat 5 TM (Thematic Mapper) images of band 4,3,2 taken in 1995 and 2000 as data resources, this paper carried out study on LUCC of Zhangye oasis in recent five years by interpretation according to land resources classification system of 1:100,000 Resources and Environmental Database of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results show that great changes have taken place in landuse/landcover in Zhangye oasis since 1995: (1) Changes of landuse structure show that cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased, on the contrary, water area and grassland decreased. These changes reflect the deterioration of eco-environment and the acceleration of urbanization, and also indicate the problems existing in the arrangement of water and land resources between the upper and lower reaches of the Heihe River. (2) Regional differences of landuse/landcover are evident, characterized by following aspects: in Sunan County located in Qilian Mountain area, unused land and grassland decreased, but cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased. In Minle and Shandan counties located in foothills, unused land, water area and cropland decreased, but grassland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased. In Zhangye City, Linze County and Gaotai County located in plain area of the middle reaches of the Heihe River, unused land, water area and grassland decreased, while woodland, cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased.     

河西走廊张掖绿洲土地利用/土地覆盖变化特征

Taking two false color composite Landsat 5 TM(Thematic Mapper)images of band 4,3,2taken in 1995 and 2000 as data resources,this paper carried out study on LUCC of Zhanye oasis in recent five years by interpretation according to land resources classification system of 1∶00,000 Resources and Environmental Database of the Chinese Academy of sciences.The results show that great changes have taken place in landuse/landcover in Zhangye oasis since 1995:(1)Changes of landuse structure show that cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased,on the contrary,water area and grassland decreased.These changes reflect the deterionration of arrangement of water and land resources between the upper and lower reaches of the Heihe River.(2)Regional differences of landuse/landcover are evident,characterized by following aspects:in Sunan County located in Qilian Mountain area,unused land and grassland decreased,but cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area inreased.In Minle and Shandan counties located in foothills,unused land,warer area and cropland decreased,but grassland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased.In Zhangye City,Linze County and Gaotai County located in plain area of the middle reaches of the Heihe River,unused land,warer area and grassland decreased,while woodland,cropland and land for urban construction and buile-up area increased.     

Land Cover Status in the Koshi River Basin,Central Himalayas

The Koshi River Basin is in the middle of the Himalayas, a tributary of the Ganges River and a very important cross-border watershed. Across the basin there are large changes in altitude, habitat complexity, ecosystem integrity, land cover diversity and regional difference and this area is sensitive to global climate change. Based on Landsat TM images, vegetation mapping, field investigations and 3S technology, we compiled high-precision land cover data for the Koshi River Basin and analyzed current land cover characteristics. We found that from source to downstream, land cover in the Koshi River Basin in 2010 was composed of water body (glacier), bare land, sparse vegetation, grassland, wetland, shrubland, forest, cropland, water body (river or lake) and built-up areas. Among them, grassland, forest, bare land and cropland are the main types, accounting for 25.83%, 21.19%, 19.31% and 15.09% of the basin’s area respectively. The composition and structure of the Koshi River Basin land cover types are different between southern and northern slopes. The north slope is dominated by grassland, bare land and glacier; forest, bare land and glacier are mainly found on northern slopes. Northern slopes contain nearly seven times more grassland than southern slopes; while 97.13% of forest is located on southern slopes. Grassland area on northern slope is 6.67 times than on southern slope. The vertical distribution of major land cover types has obvious zonal characteristics. Land cover types from low to high altitudes are cropland, forest, Shrubland and mixed cropland, grassland, sparse vegetation, bare land and water bodies. These results provide a scientific basis for the study of land use and cover change in a critical region and will inform ecosystem protection, sustainability and management in this and other alpine transboundary basins.     

干旱区典型流域近30 a土地利用/覆被变化和景观破碎化分析——以玛纳斯河流域为例

 利用1976年、1989年、2005年三期遥感影像,运用GIS和FRAGSTATS景观分析软件对玛纳斯河流域近30 a的土地利用/覆被变化和景观破碎化进行了研究。结果表明：①玛纳斯河流域土地利用/覆被在过去30 a间发生了普遍的变化。耕地、建设用地不断增加,而草地、林地、水域、盐碱地不断减少。耕地主要是在草地上开垦出来的。②绿洲内部的耕地趋于集聚状态,破碎性降低,而绿洲边缘的耕地,破碎性增强。草地面积大减,破碎性增强,退化严重。沙地、水域破碎性也不断增强,林地、未利用土地的破碎化于1989年增强,2005年减缓。③驱动力分析表明,流域变化是自然和人类活动共同作用的结果,其中人口的快速增长、政策环境的变化和自然环境变化如干旱等是最主要的驱动因素。     

中国南方不同土地利用/覆被类型对气温升温的影响

基于我国南方六省国家气象台站历史气象资料、1:10万土地利用/覆被数据和NCEP再分析气温资料,通过比较气温变化在不同观测环境气象站之间的差异,分析中国南方三种主要土地利用/覆被类型对气温趋势的影响。结果显示:土地利用/覆被类型对气温趋势具有稳定的影响,建设用地的年均温、年均最高和最低气温的升温幅度均最高,耕地次之,林地最小。进一步利用再分析资料剔除区域大尺度气候背景影响后,建设用地的年均温升温趋势仍最大(0.105℃/10a),其次是耕地(0.056℃/10a),林地的升温趋势最小(-0.025℃/10a),且为负。这表明对于研究区气温的升温趋势,林地具有抑制作用,建设用地具有增强作用,且增强作用较耕地强。林地的各季节平均气温的变化幅度同样低于非林地。     

岩溶山区不同植被群落土壤生态系统特性研究

自然植被演替成为次生植被、人工林或人工开垦利用后,岩溶山地土壤物理性能退化;沙化现象明显;坡耕地土壤长时间持水供水性能、抗旱性能降低;土壤种子库中草本种子比例大,木本植物种子少,土壤种子库退化更严重。研究区土壤有机质和全N受植被类型和土地利用强度影响明显,坡耕地土壤有机质较林草地系统低,退耕还林还草后,土壤有机质含量稳定增加。与自然植被相比,人工林、次生林系统土壤有机质含量仍较低。从弃耕地→灌草坡→次生林地的演替过程中,土壤种子库生态优势度呈降低趋势,物种丰富度和多样性增加。研究结果认为,岩溶生态系统土地退化的实质是土壤作为水库、养分库和土壤种子库功能的差异退化。     

巴西土地利用/覆盖变化时空格局及驱动因素

土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)是全球变化研究的热点问题之一。本文采用人机交互方法基于2005 年基准年的Landsat TM/ETM遥感影像修正欧空局GlobalCover 2005 年土地利用数据,进而采用逆时相目视解译法从1980年基准年的Landsat MSS/TM遥感影像数据提取1980-2005 年土地利用/覆盖变化信息,分析其变化的时空格局及驱动因素。结果表明:1980-2005年的25年间,巴西土地利用/覆盖变化面积达79.43万km²,占土地总面积的9.33%。其中,单纯耕地像元面积增加了20.18 万km²;耕地/自然植被镶嵌混合像元区面积增加了10.70 万km²;林地面积减少了53.12 万km²;灌丛与草地净增加21.10 万km²;水体面积增加0.46 万km²;城乡建设用地面积增加7573.87 km²。由此导致热带和亚热带湿润阔叶林生态地理区、热带和亚热带干旱阔叶林生态地理区、热带及亚热带草原生态地理区、草原和沼泽湿地生态地理区、沙漠和旱生植物生态地理区以及红树林生态地理区内分别呈现不同的土地利用/覆盖变化特征。近25 年间,地形地貌、气候、植被等自然地理条件深刻影响着土地利用的宏观格局,而土地利用政策调控、经济及对外贸易发展、人口增加及空间迁移、道路修建等是导致巴西土地利用变化的主要原因。     

Impact of land cover types on the soil characteristics in karst area of Chongqing

The 26 plots including natural forestland, secondary forestland, shrub-grassland, sloping cropland, artificial forest and abandoned field, were selected to discuss the impact of land cover on the soil characteristics in the three karst districts of Chongqing. The results showed that: (1) After the vegetation turned into secondary vegetation or artificial vegetation, or reclamation, soil physical properties would be degraded. In the surface-layer soil of sloping cropland, the contents of > 2 mm water-stable aggregates decreased obviously with apparent sandification. (2) The contents of soil organic matter and total nitrogen are controlled completely by vegetation type and land use intensity. The increasing trend is rather slow in the early days when over-reclamation is stopped and the land is converted to forest and pasture. (3) Herbaceous species increase and woody plants species decrease with the increase of land use intensity, therefore, the soil seed banks degrade more seriously. (4) The soil degradation index has been set up to describe the relative soil degradation degree under the conditions of different vegetation types. (5) Land cover has a significant effect on karst soil characteristics, land degradation in the karst ecosystem is essentially characterized by the different degradation of soil functions that serve as water banks, nutrient banks and soil seed banks.