Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

Microzonation of Bucharest: State-of-the-Art

— The 1940 (M_w=7.7) and 1977 (M_w=7.4) Vrancea earthquakes (Romania) inflicted heavy damage and casualties in Bucharest and the statistics indicate a recurrence interval of 25 years for M_w 7.0 events. Under these circumstances, the seismic microzonation represents important information for detailed urban planning that establishes an appropriate level of preparedness to the earthquake threat. This paper reviews the main studies concerning the seismicity of the Vrancea region, the site conditions of the city, the characterization of the building stock, and the codes of practice that regulate the antiseismic design. The first-order microzonation of Bucharest was performed starting from the existing database of structural and geotechnical parameters. New insights originating from direct instrumental observation and interpretation of the local effects as well as realistic numerical modeling that update and improve the input data necessary for a detailed microzoning map of the city are also discussed.     

The French seismic CATalogue (FCAT-17)

In regions that undergo low deformation rates, as is the case for metropolitan France (i.e. the part of France in Europe), the use of historical seismicity, in addition to instrumental data, is necessary when dealing with seismic hazard assessment. This paper presents the strategy adopted to develop a parametric earthquake catalogue using moment magnitude M_w, as the reference magnitude scale to cover both instrumental and historical periods for metropolitan France. Work performed within the framework of the SiHex (SIsmicité de l’HEXagone) (Cara et al. Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015. doi: 10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3) and SIGMA (SeIsmic Ground Motion Assessment; EDF-CEA-AREVA-ENEL) projects, respectively on instrumental and historical earthquakes, have been combined to produce the French seismic CATalogue, version 2017 (FCAT-17). The SiHex catalogue is composed of ~40,000 natural earthquakes, for which the hypocentral location and M_w magnitude are given. In the frame of the SIGMA research program, an integrated study has been realized on historical seismicity from intensity prediction equations (IPE) calibration in M_w detailed in Baumont et al. (submitted) companion paper to their application to earthquakes of the SISFRANCE macroseismic database (BRGM, EDF, IRSN), through a dedicated strategy developed by Traversa et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10518-017-0178-7) companion paper, to compute their M_w magnitude and depth. Macroseismic data and epicentral location and intensity used both in IPE calibration and inversion process, are those of SISFRANCE without any revision. The inversion process allows the main macroseismic field specificities reported by SISFRANCE to be taken into account with an exploration tree approach. It also allows capturing the epistemic uncertainties associated with macroseismic data and to IPEs selection. For events that exhibit a poorly constrained macroseismic field (mainly old, cross border or off-shore earthquakes), joint inversion of M_w and depth is not possible, and depth needs to be fixed to calculate M_w. Regional a priori depths have been defined for this purpose based on analysis of earthquakes with a well constrained macroseismic field where joint inversion of M_w and depth is possible. As a result, 27% of SISFRANCE earthquake seismological parameters have been jointly inverted and for the other 73% M_w has been calculated assuming a priori depths. The FCAT-17 catalogue is composed of the SIGMA historical parametric catalogue (magnitude range between 3.5 up to 7.0), covering from AD463 to 1965, and of the SiHex instrumental one, extending from 1965 to 2009. Historical part of the catalogue results from an automatic inversion of SISFRANCE data. A quality index is estimated for each historical earthquake according to the way the events are processed. All magnitudes are given in M_w which makes this catalogue directly usable as an input for probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard studies. Uncertainties on magnitudes and depths are provided for historical earthquakes following calculation scheme presented in Traversa et al. (2017). Uncertainties on magnitudes for instrumental events are from Cara et al. (J Seismol 21:551–565, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10950-016-9617-1).     

Precursory seismic quiescence along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone: past and present

In this study, the seismic quiescence prior to hazardous earthquakes was analyzed along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ). The seismicity data were screened statistically with mainshock earthquakes of M _w?≥?4.4 reported during 1980–2015 being defined as the completeness database. In order to examine the possibility of using the seismic quiescence stage as a marker of subsequent earthquakes, the seismicity data reported prior to the eight major earthquakes along the SASZ were analyzed for changes in their seismicity rate using the statistical Z test. Iterative tests revealed that Z factors of N?=?50 events and T?=?2?years were optimal for detecting sudden rate changes such as quiescence and to map these spatially. The observed quiescence periods conformed to the subsequent major earthquake occurrences both spatially and temporally. Using suitable conditions obtained from successive retrospective tests, the seismicity rate changes were then mapped from the most up-to-date seismicity data available. This revealed three areas along the SASZ that might generate a major earthquake in the future: (i) Nicobar Islands (Z?=?6.7), (ii) the western offshore side of Sumatra Island (Z?=?7.1), and (iii) western Myanmar (Z?=?6.7). The performance of a stochastic test using a number of synthetic randomized catalogues indicated these levels of anomalous Z value showed the above anomaly is unlikely due to chance or random fluctuations of the earthquake. Thus, these three areas have a high possibility of generating a strong-to-major earthquake in the future.     

The European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC) for the last millennium

The catalogue by Grünthal et al. (J Seismol 13:517?C541, 2009a) of earthquakes in central, northern, and north-western Europe with M _w????3.5 (CENEC) has been expanded to cover also southern Europe and the Mediterranean area. It has also been extended in time (1000?C2006). Due to the strongly increased seismicity in the new area, the threshold for events south of the latitude 44°N has here been set at M _w????4.0, keeping the lower threshold in the northern catalogue part. This part has been updated with data from new and revised national and regional catalogues. The new Euro-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC) is based on data from some 80 domestic catalogues and data files and over 100 special studies. Available original M _w and M ₀ data have been introduced. The analysis largely followed the lines of the Grünthal et al. (J Seismol 13:517?C541, 2009a) study, i.e., fake and duplicate events were identified and removed, polygons were specified within each of which one or more of the catalogues or data files have validity, and existing magnitudes and intensities were converted to M _w. Algorithms to compute M _w are based on relations provided locally, or more commonly on those derived by Grünthal et al. (J Seismol 13:517?C541, 2009a) or in the present study. The homogeneity of EMEC with respect to M _w for the different constituents was investigated and improved where feasible. EMEC contains entries of some 45,000 earthquakes. For each event, the date, time, location (including focal depth if available), intensity I ₀ (if given in the original catalogue), magnitude M _w (with uncertainty when given), and source (catalogue or special study) are presented. Besides the main EMEC catalogue, large events before year 1000 in the SE part of the investigated area and fake events, respectively, are given in separate lists.     

Seismic source zoning and maximum credible earthquake prognosis of the Greater Kashmir Territory,NW Himalaya

We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m _max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M _w 7.7, M _w 8.5, and M _w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m _max of M _w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m _max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m _max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.     

Temporal and spatial distributions of precursory seismicity rate changes in the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region: implication for upcoming hazardous earthquakes

To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M _w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T _w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T _w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Methods for Measuring Seismicity Rate Changes: A Review and a Study of How the M w 7.3 Landers Earthquake Affected the Aftershock Sequence of the M w 6.1 Joshua Tree Earthquake

The development of fault interaction models has triggered the need for an accurate estimation of seismicity rate changes following the occurrence of an earthquake. Several statistical methods have been developed in the past to serve this purpose, each relying on different assumptions (e.g., stationarity, gaussianity) pertaining to the seismicity process.In this paper we review these various approaches, discuss their limitations, and propose further improvements. The feasibility of mapping robust seismicity rate changes, and more particularly rate decreases (i.e., seismicity shadows), in the first few days of an aftershock sequence, is examined. To this aim, the hypothesis of large numbers of earthquakes, hence the use of Gaussian statistics, as is usually assumed, must be dropped.Finally, we analyse the modulation in seismicity rates following the 1992, June 28 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake in the region of the 1992, April 22 M_w 6.1 Joshua Tree earthquake. Clear instances of early triggering (i.e., in the first few days) followed by a seismicity quiescence, are observed. This could indicate the existence of two distinct interaction regimes, a first one caused by the destabilisation of active faults by the travelling seismic waves, and a second one due to the remaining static stress perturbation.     

Ground-motion Attenuation Relation from Strong-motion Records of the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake Sequence (2001–2006), Gujarat, India

Predictive relations are developed for peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the engineering seismoscope (SRR) records of the 2001 M_w 7.7 Bhuj earthquake and 239 strong-motion records of 32 significant aftershocks of 3.1 ≤ M_w ≤ 5.6 at epicentral distances of 1 ≤ R ≤ 288 km. We have taken advantage of the recent increase in strong-motion data at close distances to derive new attenuation relation for peak horizontal acceleration in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat. This new analysis uses the Joyner-Boore’s method for a magnitude-independent shape, based on geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, for the attenuation curve. The resulting attenuation equation is,

An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution

The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M _w ? ≥?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M _w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M _w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.     

Temporary seismological observations in the area of the 2012–2013 Tolbachik Fissure Eruption: Results

The seismicity that accompanied the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption was recorded by additional seismic stations that were installed in the southern Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster area in January to October 2013. We used broadband (0.033–50 Hz) three-component digital Guralp CMG-6TD seismometers. This temporary network provided seismicity data at a lower energy level than can be done using the regional seismograph network of Kamchatka. The processing of the resulting digital records supplied data for compiling a catalog of over 700 M _L = 0–3.5 (K _S = 1.5–8.5) earthquakes, which is an order of magnitude greater than the number of events located by the regional network for the same period of time. The seismicity in the area of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano was found to concentrate mostly in spatially isolated areas during the eruption. The main isolated clusters of earthquakes were identified both in the eruption area itself and along the periphery of Ploskii Tolbachik Volcano, in the area of the Zimina volcanic massif, and in the Tolud epicenter zone; the eruption zone was not dominant in the seismicity. The region of a shallow seismicity increase beneath Ploskii Tolbachik before the eruption was not found to exhibit any increased activity during the time the temporary seismograph network was operated, which means that a seismicity inversion took place at the beginning of the eruption. We discuss the question of what the earthquake-generating features are that we have identified.     

Defining a model of 3D seismogenic sources for Seismic Hazard Assessment applications: The case of central Apennines (Italy)

Geology-based methods for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) have been developing in Italy. These methods require information on the geometric, kinematic and energetic parameters of the major seismogenic faults. In this paper, we define a model of 3D seismogenic sources in the central Apennines of Italy. Our approach is mainly structural-seismotectonic: we integrate surface geology data (trace of active faults, i.e. 2D features) with seismicity and subsurface geological–geophysical data (3D approach). A fundamental step is to fix constraints on the thickness of the seismogenic layer and deep geometry of faults: we use constraints from the depth distribution of aftershock zones and background seismicity; we also use information on the structural style of the extensional deformation at crustal scale (mainly from seismic reflection data), as well as on the strength and behaviour (brittle versus plastic) of the crust by rheological profiling. Geological observations allow us to define a segmentation model consisting of major fault structures separated by first-order (kilometric scale) structural-geometric complexities considered as likely barriers to the propagation of major earthquake ruptures. Once defined the 3D fault features and the segmentation model, the step onward is the computation of the maximum magnitude of the expected earthquake (M _max). We compare three different estimates of M _max: (1) from association of past earthquakes to faults; (2) from 3D fault geometry and (3) from geometrical estimate corrected by earthquake scaling laws. By integrating all the data, we define a model of seismogenic sources (seismogenic boxes), which can be directly used for regional-scale PSHA. Preliminary applications of PSHA indicate that the 3D approach may allow to hazard scenarios more realistic than those previously proposed.     

Re-visiting large historical earthquakes in the Colombian Eastern Cordillera

A re-assessment of the historic seismicity of the central sector of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera (EC) is made by revision of bibliographic sources, by calibration with modern instrumental earthquakes, and by interpretations in terms of current knowledge of the tectonics and seismicity of the region. Throughout the process we have derived an equation to estimate M_w for shallow crustal earthquakes in Colombia using the length of isoseismal VIII, L_VIII:

Surface dynamic deformation estimates from local seismicity: the Itoiz reservoir,Spain

We analyze the ground motion time histories due to the local seismicity near the Itoiz reservoir to estimate the near-source, surface 3D displacement gradients and dynamic deformations. The seismic data were obtained by a semipermanent broadband and accelerometric network located on surface and at underground sites. The dynamic deformation field was calculated by two different methodologies: first, by the seismo-geodetic method using the data from a three-station microarray located close to the dam, and second, by single station estimates of the displacement gradients. The dynamic deformations obtained from both methods were compared and analyzed in the context of the local free-field effects. The shallow 1D velocity structure was estimated from the seismic data by modeling the body wave travel times. Time histories obtained from both methods result quite similar in the time window of body wave arrivals. The strain misfits between methods vary from 1.4 to 35.0 % and rotational misfits vary from 2.5 to 36.0 %. Amplitudes of displacement gradients vary in the range of 10^?8 to 10^?7 strains. From these results, a new scaling analysis by numerical modeling is proposed in order to estimate the peak dynamic deformations for different magnitudes, up to the expected maximum M _w in the region (M5.5). Peak dynamic deformations due to local M _w5.5 earthquakes would reach amplitudes of 10^?5 strain and 10^?3 radians at the Itoiz dam. The single station method shows to be an adequate option for the analysis of local seismicity, where few three-component stations are available. The results obtained here could help to extend the applicability of these methodologies to other sites of engineering interest.     

Uncertainties in the estimation of earthquake magnitudes in Greece

Instrumental magnitudes in Greece have been reported as: a) Mmagnitudes based on the records of the Wiechert or Mainka seismographs,b) M_LGR magnitudes based on the records of the Wood-Anderson(WA) seismographs (T_o = 0.8 sec, V_effective 1000) or othershort period seismographs calibrated against WA records and,c) M_LSM magnitudes based on strong motion records(accelerograms). Comparison of such magnitudes with momentmagnitudes, M_w, for 329 earthquakes, with epicenters in thebroader Aegean area, performed in this study, showedthat M, M_LGR+0.5 and M_LSM are practically equalto M_w, with a small overall standard error ( = 0.23).Therefore, equivalent moment magnitudes, M_w ^*,estimated from these magnitudes and reported in the catalogues of theGeophysical Laboratory of the University of Thessaloniki are equal tomoment magnitudes for all practical purposes with reasonable uncertainties.It has been further shown that surface wave magnitudes, M_s,for M_s <6.0, can be also transferred into momentmagnitudes, M_w ^*, but the larger uncertaintiesencountered make its use rather problematic.     

Source parameters of four strong earthquakes in Bulgaria and Portugal at the beginning of the 20th century

Using original seismograph records and bulletin data we re-determined theorigin time, location, seismic moment (M₀) and magnitudes(M_S and M_w) for four earthquakes in the beginning of the20th century. These are two strong earthquakes April 4, 1904 nearKrupnik, Bulgaria (M_w = 6.8, M_S = 7.2 respectively), the April 231909 earthquake near Benavente, Portugal (M_S = 6.3), and the June14, 1913 earthquake near Gorna Orjahovitza, Bulgaria (M_S = 6.3).Twenty-nine traces from original records have been analysed, a largenumber of original station bulletins have been consulted and a consistentmethodology for analysing these early 20th century instrumentalinformation is presented.In spite of a thorough effort in re-assembling and quality control of theoriginal data, large inaccuracies remain in the improved instrumentalepicentre locations and origin times. The seismic moment estimates weobtained (2.3 10¹⁸ M₀ 3.9 10¹⁹Nm) are the first ever determined for these events. The magnitudeestimates (6.3 M_S 7.2 and 6.2 M_w 7.0) are robust and systematically lower than most of previousestimates for all earthquakes (Gutenberg and Richter, 1954; Christoskovand Grigorova, 1968; Karnik, 1969). For the largest Krupnik event ourestimates agree with those of Abe and Noguchi (1983b) and Pacheco andSykes (1992). The studied earthquakes all occur in moderately seismicactive regions, therefore our results may have significant consequences forhazard estimates in those regions.     

The Tolud Burst of Seismicity and the Earthquake of November 30, 2012 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>C</Subscript> = 5.4, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.8) that Accompanied the Start of the 2012‒2013 Tolbachik Eruption

This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with K_S = 11.3, M_L = 4.9, M_C = 5.4, and M_W = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (M_L = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.