Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in the Indian Subcontinent

—The Indian subcontinent is one of the most seismic prone areas of the world. The Himalayan mountains in the north, mid-oceanic ridges in the south and earthquake belts surrounding the Indian plate all show that the subcontinent has undergone extensive geological and tectonic processes in the past. The probability of the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude 6<Mb<7 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of four probabilistic models namely Lognormal, Weibull, Gamma and Exponential distribution for the Indian subcontinent. The seismicity map has been prepared using the earthquake catalogue from the period 1963–1994, and six different zones have been identified on the basis of clustering of events. The model parameters have been estimated by the method of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) and method of moments (MOM). A computer program package has been developed for all four models, which represents the distributions of time intervals fairly well. The logarithmic of likelihood (ln L) is estimated for testing the models and different models have been found to be plausible. The probability of different magnitude thresholds has been evaluated using the Gutenberg–Richter formula Log N = a - bM for magnitude distribution. The constants a and b have been computed for each region and found to be varying between 5.46–8.53 and 0.87–1.34, respectively.     

Seismic Sources on the Iberia-African Plate Boundary and their Tectonic Implications

—The plate boundary between Iberia and Africa has been studied using data on seismicity and focal mechanisms. The region has been divided into three areas: A; the Gulf of Cadiz; B, the Betics, Alboran Sea and northern Morocco; and C, Algeria. Seismicity shows a complex behavior, large shallow earthquakes (h < 30 km) occur in areas A and C and moderate shocks in area B; intermediate-depth activity (30 < h < 150 km) is located in area B; the depth earthquakes (h 650 km) are located to the south of Granada. Moment rate, slip velocity and b values have been estimated for shallow shocks, and show similar characteristics for the Gulf of Cadiz and Algeria, and quite different ones for the central region. Focal mechanisms of 80 selected shallow earthquakes (8 m_b 4) show thrust faulting in the Gulf of Cadiz and Algeria with horizontal NNW-SSE compression, and normal faulting in the Alboran Sea with E-W extension. Focal mechanisms of 26 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Alboran Sea display vertical motions, with a predominant plane trending E-W. Solutions for very deep shocks correspond to vertical dip-slip along N-S trends. Frohlich diagrams and seismic moment tensors show different behavior in the Gulf of Cadiz, Betic-Alboran Sea and northern Morocco, and northern Algeria for shallow events. The stress pattern of intermediate-depth and very deep earthquakes has different directions: vertical extension in the NW-SE direction for intermediate depth earthquakes, and tension and pressure axes dipping about 45 ° for very deep earthquakes. Regional stress pattern may result from the collision between the African plate and Iberia, with extension and subduction of lithospheric material in the Alboran Sea at intermediate depth. The very deep seismicity may be correlated with older subduction processes.     

Faulting Processes of Historic (1917–1962) M = 6.0 Earthquakes Along the North-central Caribbean Margin

—The plate boundary along the north-central Caribbean margin is geologically complex. Our understanding of this complexity is hampered by the fact that plate motions are relatively slow (1 to 2 cm/yr), so that recent seismicity often does not provide a complete picture of tectonic deformation. Studies of the faulting processes of instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring prior to 1962 thus provide important information regarding the nature and rate of seismic deformation within the region, and are essential for a comprehensive assessment of seismic hazard. We have conducted body waveform modeling studies of eight earthquakes which occurred along the north-central Caribbean plate margin, extending from southeastern Cuba to the Swan Island fracture zone (75 to 83°W). None of these earthquakes has been previously studied and several occurred in regions where no recent (post-1962) seismicity has been recorded. The plate margin in the western portion of our study area is characterized by a transform fault-spreading center system. In the central and eastern portions of our study area the plate margin is a complex, diffuse region of deformation that couples transform motion in the Cayman trough to subduction along the Lesser Antilles arc. Our results show that the western portion of the study area has only experienced large strike-slip earthquakes. Off southeastern Cuba two earthquakes appear to have occurred on high angle, northward dipping, reverse faults with south to southeastward directed slip vectors. An earthquake in northern Jamaica in 1957 shows pure strike-slip faulting, most likely along an east-west trending fault. Finally, an unusual sequence of events located in the Pedro Bank region ~70 km southwest of Jamaica has a mainshock with a reverse-oblique mechanism, suggesting continuity of the plate interface stress field well south of the northern Caribbean margin.     

Deformation and stress regimes in the Hellenic subduction zone from focal Mechanisms

Fault plane solutions for earthquakes in the central Hellenic arc are analysed to determine the deformation and stress regimes in the Hellenic subduction zone in the vicinity of Crete. Fault mechanisms for earthquakes recorded by various networks or contained in global catalogues are collected. In addition, 34 fault plane solutions are determined for events recorded by our own local temporary network on central Crete in 2000–2001. The entire data set of 264 source mechanisms is examined for types of faulting and spatial clustering of mechanisms. Eight regions with significantly varying characteristic types of faulting are identified of which the upper (Aegean) plate includes four. Three regions contain interplate seismicity along the Hellenic arc from west to east and all events below are identified to occur within the subducting African lithosphere. We perform stress tensor inversion to each of the subsets in order to determine the stress field. Results indicate a uniform N-NNE direction of relative plate motion between the Ionian Sea and Rhodes resulting in orthogonal convergence in the western forearc and oblique (40–50^∘) subduction in the eastern forearc. There, the plate boundary migrates towards the SE resulting in left-lateral strike-slip faulting that extends to onshore Eastern Crete. N110^∘E trending normal faulting in the Aegean plate at this part is in accordance with this model. Along-arc extension is observed on Western Crete. Fault plane solutions for earthquakes within the dipping African lithosphere indicate that slab pull is the dominant force within the subduction process and responsible for the roll-back of the Hellenic subduction zone.     

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.     

Global variability in subduction thrust zone-forearc systems

Deviations of slip vector azimuths of interplate thrust earthquakes from expected plate convergence directions at oblique subduction zones provide kinematic information about the deformation of forearcs and indirect evidence on the dynamics of the plate boundary. A global survey of slip vectors at major trenches of the world reveals a large variability in the kinematic response of forearcs to shear produced by oblique convergence. The variability in forearc deformation inferred from slip vector deflections is suggested to be caused by variations in forearc rheology rather than in the stresses acting on subduction zone thrust faults. Estimated apparent macroscopic rheologies range from elastic to perfectly plastic (or viscous). Forearc rheologies inferred from slip vectors do not correlate with age of the subducting lithosphere, but continental forearcs or old arcs appear to deform less than oceanic or young arcs. The inferred absence of forearc deformation at continental arcs from this study is counter to inferences drawn from compiled geologic information on forearc faults. Correlations of the apparent forearc rheology with backarc spreading, convergence rate, slab dip, arc curvature, and downdip length of the thrust contact are poor. However, great subduction zone earthquakes occur where forearcs are apparently more elastic (i.e., less deformed by oblique convergence), which suggests that the mechanical properties of forearcs rather than stress magnitude on thrust faults control both the kinematic behavior of forearcs and where great subduction zone earthquakes occur.     

Lateral structure of the subducting pacific plate beneath the Hokkaido corner from intermediate and deep earthquakes

We present a study of the lateral structure and mode of deformation in the transition between the Kuril and Honshu subduction zones. We begin by examining the source characteristics of the January 19, 1969, intermediate depth earthquake north of Hokkaido in the framework of slab-tearing, which for the December 6, 1978 event has been well documented by previous studies. We use a least-squares body wave inversion technique, and find that its focal mechanism is comparable to the 1978 event. To understand the cause of these earthquakes, which in the case of the 1978 event occurred on a vertical tear fault but does not represent hinge faulting, we examine the available International Seismological Centre [ISC] hypocenters and Harvard centroid-moment tensor [CMT] solutions to determine the state of stress, and lateral structure and segmentation in the Kuril and northern Honshu slabs. These data are evaluated in the framework of two models. Model (A) requires the subducting slab at the Hokkaido corner to maintain surface area. Model (B) requires slab subduction to be dominated by gravity, with material subducting in the down-dip direction. The distribution of ICS hypocenters shows a gap in deep seismicity down-dip of the Hokkaido corner, supporting model (B). From the CMT data set we find that three types of earthquake focal mechanisms occur. The first (type A) represents dip-slip mechanisms consistent with down-dip tension or compression in the slab in a direction normal to the strike of the trench. These events occur throughout the Honshu and Kuril slabs with focal mechanisms beneath Hokkaido showing NNW plungingP andT axes consistent with the local slab geometry. The second (type B) occurs primarily at depths over 300 km in the southern part of the Kuril slab with a few events in the northern end of the Honshu deep seismicity. These earthquakes have focal mechanisms with P axes oriented roughly E-W, highly oblique to the direction of compression found in the type A events, with which they are spatially interspersed. The third (type C) group of earthquakes are those events which do not fit in either of the first two groups and consist of either strike-slip focal mechanisms, such as the tearing events, or oddly oriented focal mechanisms. Examination of the stress axes orientations for these three types reveals that the compressional axes of the type C events are consistent with those of type B. The slab tearing events are just differential motion reflecting the E-W compressive states of stress which is responsible for the type B family of events. There is no need to invoke down-dip extension which does not fit the slab geometry. We conclude that these two states of stress can be explained as follows: 1) The type A events and the seismicity distribution support model (B). 2) The type B and C events upport model (A). The solution is that the slab subducts according to model (B), but the flow in the mantle maintains a different trajectory, possibly induced by the plate motions, which produces the second state of E-W compressive stress.     

Unified Local Magnitude Scale for Earthquakes of South Balkan Area

—A homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 1964–1995 for the southern Balkan area is presented, by expressing the size of the earthquakes in a unified local magnitude scale. The strategy followed to produce this catalog is also presented. Local magnitudes calculated by six Balkan seismological centers (ATH, THE, ISK, TIR, TTG, SKO) have been used in order to obtain relations between the estimated ML values from the Greek seismological centers (ATH and THE) and the remaining four Balkan stations. Since it was found that local magnitudes estimated by ATH and THE are almost identical, they have been used as one data set so as to correlate with the data of each one of the remaining four seismological stations. Based on the proposed relations, a unified local magnitude, MLGR, is given for each earthquake of the regional catalog. A published scaling relation between the ML values from ATH and THE networks and the corresponding seismic moment magnitude, Mw, was used in combination with the above relations, in order to enable the conversion of any ML value from any station into Mw. The catalog completeness has been checked and the b-value has been calculated for the complete data sample.     

Earthquake doublets in the Solomon Islands

Large, shallow, thrust earthquakes in the Solomon Islands region tend to occur in closely related pairs. Two recent sequences are July 14, 1971 (M_S = 7.9) and July 26, 1971 M(_S = 7.9) and 14^h37^m, July 20, 1975 (M_S = 7.9) and 19^h54^m, July 20, 1975 (M_S = 7.7). The mechanism of these seismic doublets has important bearing on the triggering mechanism of earthquakes in subduction zones. Detailed analysis of the seismic body waves and surface waves were performed on the 1971, 1974, and 1975 doublets, providing a better understanding of: (1) the mechanics of seismic triggering, (2) the state of stress on the fault plane, and (3) the nature of subduction between the Pacific and Indian plates. The results indicate that although the geometry of the subduction zone in the Solomon Islands is complicated by the presence of several sub-plates, the slip direction of the Indian plate with respect to the Pacific plate is relatively uniform over the entire region. The large seismic moments of the 1971 sequence (1.2 · 10²⁸ and 1.8 · 10²⁸ dyne cm) indicate that these events directly represent the underthrusting of the Indian and Solomon plates beneath the Pacific plate. The body waves from these doublets, recorded on the WWSSN long-period seismograms, are remarkably impulsive and simple compared with those from events of comparable seismic moment in other subduction zones. In addition, the source dimensions of the body waves are 30–70 km in length, substantially smaller than the overall rupture surfaces radiating the surface waves which are 100–300 km in length. These facts suggest the existence of relatively large, isolated high-stress zones on the fault plane. This type of stress distribution is distinct from other regions which have more heterogeneous stress distribution on the fault plane, and this is proposed as the principal characteristic of this region responsible for the occurrence of the doublets and for the apparent efficiency of triggering in the Solomon trench. Prior to the 1971 sequence, similar sequences have occurred in the same area in 1919–1920 and 1945–1946. From the amount of slip (1.3 m) determined for the 1971 sequence and the apparent recurrence interval of 25 years, a seismic slip rate of 5 cm yr^?1 is determined. This value is a significant portion of the convergence rate between the Indian and Pacific plates indicating that the plate motion here is taken up largely by seismic slip.     

Relative Motion Between the Rivera and North American Plates Determined from the Slip Directions of Earthquakes

So far, the direction and rate of relative motion between the Rivera and the North American plates (RIV-NAM) has been determined by the combination of two Euler poles: Rivera (RIV), with respect to Pacific (PAC), and PAC with respect to North America. Here, we estimate the relative motion of this plate pair (RIV-NAM) assuming that the horizontal projection of the direction of slip of the earthquakes occurring on the RIV-NAM boundaries reflect their relative plate motion. A catalog of earthquakes for which focal mechanisms are reported since 1976 is used in the analysis. Earthquakes were considered in the three segments of the RIV-NAM plate boundary: the subduction zone of the Rivera plate beneath the Jalisco block, the Tres Marias Escarpment and the events associated with the Tamayo Fracture Zone. The best fitting Euler pole is determined using a grid search of 64 potential poles. The slip direction predicted for each grid point is compared to the slip direction of the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes on the plate boundary. The best fitting Euler pole, determined in a root mean square sense (RMS), is located at 21.8°N, 107.6°W. A rate of rotation of 5.3°/year is estimated assuming the seismic earthquake cycle of the 1932 and 1995 great earthquakes represents a lower bound of the rate of plate motion in the subduction zone. The best fitting Euler pole shows that the subduction of the Rivera plate takes place in a direction perpendicular to the trench with a relative velocity of 4.3 cm/year, offshore Manzanillo. The rate of relative motion RIV-NAM decreases from SE to NW. North of approximately 21°N, the subduction of the Rivera plate becomes oblique to the trench and the relative velocity between the two plates decreases to an average of 1.9 cm/year. This slow rate of convergence may explain the rapid decrease of seismicity in the trench and the apparent absence of large earthquakes in this region. In the Tres Marias Escarpment, our best-fitting pole suggests that subduction stops, giving way to high-angle reverse faulting perpendicular to the Tres Marias Escarpment, in agreement with the reverse faulting earthquakes occurring here. To the north of 22.5°N, the slip predicted by the best-fitting pole suggests right-lateral faulting in a direction parallel to the Tamayo Fracture Zone, at a very low velocity (0.5–1.0 cm/year). The best fitting Euler pole determined here lies very close to the RIV-NAM plate boundary in the vicinity of the Tamayo Fracture Zone. This location of our best fitting Euler pole explains the low relative plate velocity, the relatively low level of seismic activity and the presence of a broad zone of deformation that accommodates the RIV-NAM motion.     

Where and why do large shallow intraslab earthquakes occur?

We try to find how often, and in what regions large earthquakes (M≥7.0) occur within the shallow portion (20-60 km depth) of a subducting slab. Searching for events in published individual studies and the Harvard University centroid moment tensor catalogue, we find twenty such events in E. Hokkaido, Kyushu-SW, Japan, S. Mariana, Manila, Sumatra, Vanuatu, N. Chile, C. Peru, El Salvador, Mexico, N. Cascadia and Alaska. Slab stresses revealed from the mechanism solutions of these large intraslab events and nearby smaller events are almost always down-dip tensional. Except for E. Hokkaido, Manila, and Sumatra, the upper plate shows horizontal stress gradient in the arc-perpendicular direction. We infer that shear tractions are operating at the base of the upper plate in this direction to produce the observed gradient and compression in the outer fore-arc, balancing the down-dip tensional stress of the slab. This tectonic situation in the subduction zone might be realized as part of the convection system with some conditions, as shown by previous numerical simulations.     

Large earthquakes in the macquarie ridge complex: Transitional tectonics and subduction initiation

While most aspects of subduction have been extensively studied, the process of subduction initiation lacks an observational foundation. The Macquarie Ridge complex (MRC) forms the Pacific-Australia plate boundary between New Zealand to the north and the Pacific-Australia-Antarctica triple junction to the south. The MRC consists of alternating troughs and rises and is characterized by a transitional tectonic environment in which subduction initiation presently occurs. There is a high seismicity level with 15 large earthquakes (M>7) in this century. Our seismological investigation is centered on the largest event since 1943: the 25 MAY 1981 earthquake. Love, Rayleigh, andP waves are inverted to find: a faulting geometry of right-lateral strike-slip along the local trend of the Macquarie Ridge (N30°E); a seismic moment of 5×10²⁷ dyn cm (M _w=7.7) a double event rupture process with a fault length of less than 100km to the southwest of the epicenter and a fault depth of less than 20km. Three smaller thrust earthquakes occurred previous to the 1981 event along the 1981 rupture zone; their shallow-dipping thrust planes are virtually adjacent to the 1981 vertical fault plane. Oblique convergence in this region is thus accommodated by a dual rupture mode of several small thrust events and a large strike-slip event. Our study of other large MRC earthquakes, plus those of other investigators, produces focal mechanisms for 15 earthquakes distributed along the entire MRC; thrust and right-lateral strike-slip events are scattered throughout the MRC. Thus, all of the MRC is characterized by oblique convergence and the dual rupture mode. The true best-fit rotation pole for the Pacific-Australia motion is close to the Minster & Jordan RM2 pole for the Pacific-India motion. Southward migration of the rotation pole has caused the recent transition to oblique convergence in the northern MRC. We propose a subduction initiation process that is akin to crack propagation; the 1981 earthquake rupture area is identified as the crack-tip region that separates a disconnected mosaic of small thrust faults to the south from a horizontally continuous thrust interface to the north along the Puysegur trench. A different mechanism of subduction initiation occurs in the southernmost Hjort trench region at the triple junction. newly created oceanic lithosphere has been subducted just to the north of the triple junction. The entire MRC is a soft plate boundary that must accommodate the plate motion mismatch between two major spreading centers (Antarctica-Australia and Pacific-Antarctica). The persistence of spreading motion at the two major spreading centers and the consequent evolution of the three-plate system cause the present-day oblique convergence and subduction initiation in the Macquarie Ridge complex.     

Petrophysical Constraints on Deformation Styles in Aztec Sandstone, Southern Nevada, USA

— Adjacent stratigraphic units that have undergone an identical deformation history often show variability with regard to deformation style. We present one such example and attribute the variability in deformation to variations in host rock properties. The Aztec sandstone of southern Nevada has two distinct zones of deformation style, the Lower and Upper structural domains. The Lower domain has deformed predominantly by opening mode fractures, whereas the Upper domain has deformed predominantly by deformation band faulting. Within a Transitional domain, deformation band abundance increases toward the Upper domain. We use petrophysical data (ultrasonic velocity, elastic moduli, grain and bulk density, helium porosity, and gas permeability) to distinguish among the host rocks of the differently deformed domains. The laboratory results of 29 samples of Upper, Transitional, and Lower domain Aztec sandstone impart the following petrophysical distinctions among the structural domains: (1) the Lower and Transitional domains show similarly high VP and VS and are both well cemented; (2) the Transitional and Upper domains show similarly high porosity and permeability; and, (3) the Upper domain is poorly cemented. We demonstrate that: (1) the nature of intergranular cement controls VP and VS; and, (2) based on the petrophysical properties we have examined, deformation style is controlled by porosity.     

Source processes of large (M≥6.5) earthquakes of the Southeastern Caribbean (1926–1960)

We have conducted body waveform modeling studies of 13 historic earthquakes to provide a better understanding of the long-term spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity and deformation within a region extending from Barbuda, Lesser Antilles, to Cumana, Venezuela. Our results suggest that shallow earthquakes (<50 km deep) along the South American-Caribbean plate margin reflect right-lateral and extensional deformation. Intermediate depth events (100 km) show left-lateral strike-slip motion beneath the Paria peninsula of Venezuela. In the Lesser Antilles the 1960 Barbuda and 1946 Martinique earthquakes appear to be interplate thrust events, however the greatest moment release in the region has occurred at intermediate depths as a mixture of normal and strike-slip faulting, generally along trends oblique to the arc. The deformation rate estimated from the seismic moment release between 1926 and 1960 is only 1 to 10% of the estimated plate convergence rate for the region.     

Rupture model of the great AD 365 Crete earthquake in the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc

An M8.3 earthquake struck the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc, near the Island of Crete, in AD 365, generating a tsunami that affected almost the entire eastern Mediterranean region. Taking into account that the time history of seismicity in this region is fairly complete for such earthquakes in the historical catalog, which can be dated as back as the 5th century B.C., there is no indication that this segment of plate boundary has been fully ruptured again. The seismic hazard associated with this part of the Hellenic Arc necessitates the evaluation of the rupture characteristics of this great event. The constraint of the faulting geometry was initially achieved by using information from seismicity, and the focal mechanisms of earthquakes that occurred during the instrumental period. A rupture model for this great earthquake is constructed by assuming an elastic medium and calculating the theoretical surface displacements for various fault models that are matched with the observed surface deformation gleaned from historical reports. The resulted fault model concerns thrust faulting with a rupture length of 160 km and a seismic moment of 5.7 × 10²⁸ dyn·cm, an average slip of 8.9 m and a corresponding moment magnitude equal to 8.4, in excellent agreement with the macroseismic estimation. The absence of such events recurrence is an indication of the lack of complete seismic coupling that is common in subduction zones, which is in accordance with the back arc spreading of the Aegean microplate and with previous results showing low coupling for extensional strain of the upper plate.     

Subduction and back-arc activity at the Hikurangi convergent Margin,New Zealand

The Hikurangi Margin is a region of oblique subduction with northwest-dipping intermediate depth seismicity extending southwest from the Kermadec system to about 42°S. The current episode of subduction is at least 16–20 Ma old. The plate convergence rate varies along the margin from about 60 mm/a at the south end of the Kermadec Trench to about 45 mm/a at 42°S. The age of the Pacific lithosphere adjacent to the Hikurangi Trench is not known.The margin divides at about latitude 39°S into two quite dissimilar parts. The northern part has experienced andesitic volcanism for about 18 Ma, and back-arc extension in the last 4 Ma that has produced a back-arc basin onshore with high heaflow, thin crust and low upper-mantle seismic velocities. The extension appears to have arisen from a seawards migration of the Hikurangi Trench north of 39°S. Here the plate interface is thought to be currently uncoupled, as geodetic data indicate extension of the fore-arc basin, and historic earthquakes have not exceededM _s=7.South of 39°S there is no volcanism and a back-arc basin has been produced by downward flexure of the lithosphere due to strong coupling with the subducting plate. Heatflow in the basin is normal. Evidence for strong coupling comes from historic earthquakes of up to aboutM _s=8 and high rates of uplift on the southeast coast of the North Island.The reason for this division of the margin is not known but may be related to an inferred increase, from northeast to southwest, in the buoyancy of the Pacific lithosphere.     

Historical seismicity near Chagos: a complex deformation zone in the equatorial Indian Ocean

Over the last twenty years, Chagos Bank has a seismicity rate disproportionate to its supposed intraplate location. Earthquake relocation also shows a high seismicity rate in pre-WWSSN time (1912–1963), with seven events located off of the Central Indian Ridge, including large events in 1912 (M = 6.8) and 1944 (M = 7.2). This study uses the moment variance technique, a systematic search for the mechanism which best fits P, PP, SH, Love and Rayleigh amplitudes, to determine the focal mechanisms of two pre-WWSSN earthquakes. A test with a recent event of known mechanism demonstrates that accurate focal parameter determination is possible even when only a few good records are available. Moment variance analysis shows a thrust faulting mechanism for the 1944 event, northeast of Chagos Bank near the Chagos-Laccadive ridge, and a strike-slip focal mechanism for a smaller 1957 event west of Chagos Bank. The 1944 event, one of the largest oceanic “intraplate” earthquakes known (moment 1.4 × 10²⁷ dyne-cm), indicates that the Chagos seismicity reflects not an isolated occurrence of normal faulting as previously thought, but rather regional tectonic deformation extending northeast of Chagos Bank and including thrust, normal and strike-slip events. This seismicity and previously studied seismicity near the Ninetyeast Ridge and Central Indian Basin suggest a broad zone of deformation stretching across the equatorial Indian Ocean. This zone contains all known magnitude seven oceanic “intraplate” earthquakes not associated with subduction zones or continental margins, suggesting that elsewhere such extensive deformation occurs only along plate boundaries. This study proposes that a slow, diffuse plate boundary extends east from the Central Indian Ridge to the Ninetyeast Ridge and north to the Sumatra Trench. A recent plate motion study confirms this boundary and suggests that it separates the Australian plate from a single Indo-Arabian plate.     

青藏高原震源分布与板块运动

本文分析了青藏高原及其邻区大量近期地震的震源深度分布资料,发现中源地震不仅分布在众所周知的兴都库什和印缅山弧一带,而且在印度洋板块与欧亚板块汇聚带印度河-雅鲁藏布江以南,以及欧亚板块内部的帕米尔、西昆仑、柴达木和天山南缘一带也有中源地震分布,它们构成了这一地区三条向南倾斜的震源带。 这些中源地震震源带的存在表明,向北运动的印度次大陆与亚洲大陆碰撞以后,印度次大陆北缘本身并没有消减,而是迫使亚洲大陆通过三条向南倾斜的岩石层消减带产生了大规模的消减作用。 中源地震在平面上分布的不连续性,揭示了这一地区的许多条走滑断层的现代活动。这些走滑断层的巨大位移显示了青藏高原内部各块体之间的横向运动也是很可观的。 最后,提出了亚洲大陆多条南倾消减带的形成和发展模式。     

Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M _w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.     

Active deformation in the Vrancea region,Rumania

Recent and historical seismicity as well as reliable fault plane solutions are used to study the active deformation caused by the occurrence of intermediate depth (60–170 km) earthquakes of the Vrancea region, Rumania. In this area, located in the southeastern part of the Carpathian arc, the westward subduction of the Carpathian trench has terminated, leaving continental lithosphere, at present, at the arc. The principalT axis of the intermediate depth events trends N159°E and has a plunge of 74°, which is the same as the dip of the subducted plate. TheP axis has a trend of 314° and a shallow plunge of 15°. The analysis of the moment tensor of six focal mechanisms showed that the dominant mode of deformation of the subducted lithosphere is a down-dip extension at a rate of about 2 cm/yr, based on seismicity data.