怀来断层气CO_2监测及张北-尚义地震的短临预报

初步总结了怀来后郝窑测点自开展断层气ＣＯ２观测以来所获得的中强以上地震的震例。重点介绍了１９９８年１月１０日张北－尚义地震前后该测点断层气ＣＯ２的变化特征及对该地震的短临预报。对利用该测点断层气ＣＯ２单点预报地震三要素及其有关问题进行了初步的讨论     

怀来断层气CO2监测及张北—尚光地城的短临预报

初步总结了怀来后郝窑测点自开展断层气ＣＯ２预测以来所获得的中强以上的地震的震例。重点介绍了１９９８年１月１０日张北－尚义地震前后该测点断层气ＣＯ２的变化特征对该地震的短临预报。对利用该测点断层气ＣＯ２单点预报地震三要素及其有关问题进行了初步的探讨。     

和硕5.0级地震气体地球化学异常特征

１９９５年３月１９日，新疆和硕县那音克乡发生Ｍｓ５．０级地震。震前，乌鲁木齐地区地下水中溶解气体Ａｒ、ＣＨ４、ＣＯ２、Ｈ２Ｓ等和库尔勒地区的断层气Ｒｎ相继出现明显的异常。异常具有短期临震性质，主要表现为短期趋势升高，临震突跳。     

1998年怀来后郝窑断层气CO2变化特征分析

分析了１９９８年怀来后郝窑测点断层气ＣＯ２变化特征及其与影响因素地温和降雨的关系。一般情况下该测点ＣＯ２变化与地温呈正相关。讨论了导致该测点断层气ＣＯ２变化与地温呈负相关的原因。认为３月～６月初该测点ＣＯ２测值与地温呈反向变化是张北－尚义６．２级地震的后效;６月中旬至９月中旬的反向变化是由于降雨过多引赵的,介绍了１９９９年１月２９日内蒙古锡林浩特５．２级地震及３月１１日张北５．６级地震前后该测点断     

滇西实验场地区断层气体的周期性变化

对滇西地震预报实验场多年来观测的Ａｒ、Ｎ２、ＣＯ２等断层气体及水氡数据进行了分析，发现与朔望月密切相关的１３．４－１５天及２７．７－３０天周期。它是断层气体的潮汐响应，可称之为“断层气体潮”。这为研究地震异常提供了一项新的对比标准。     

红河断裂北段土壤中断层气含量变化特征

介绍了作者在滇西地震预报实验场区进行的土壤中断层气研究结果．沿红河断裂带断层气组分Ｈ２,ＣＯ２,Ｈｇ和Ｒｎ含量很高．沿该断裂洱源测线断层气Ｈ２,ＣＯ２和Ｒｎ含量最低,向南Ｈ２,ＣＯ２含量逐渐升高,其中以定西岭测线的Ｈ２,ＣＯ２含量最高．表明在该段断裂活动强烈,而洱源一带断裂活动较弱．     

环渤海地区断层气CO2监测网观测结果的初步分析

为了进一步强化环渤海地震重点监视区的短临监测和预报。在分析山东环渤海地区第四系活动断裂分布特征的基础上,１９９８年３月下旬在渤海南岸的潍坊、烟台、威海３地市的１０个县区,沿活动断裂布设了１０个断层气二氧化碳观测点。根据ＣＯ２监测网一年来的观测结果,把这些观测点分为３类,结果表明,断层气ＣＯ２监测网对其３００Ｋm范围内的 ４级以上地震具有较强的映震能力。     

地壳中的CO2及其释放与地震短临预测

该文通过对地壳中二氧化碳（ＣＯ２）的分布及其与多震层的关系,以及地壳中ＣＯ２的释放与地震活动关系的分析,探讨了断层带ＣＯ２监测在强震短临预测阶段对时间判定的作用,提出应进一步加强对断层带ＣＯ２释放的监测与研究。     

断层气CO2快速测定法及其在地震研究中的应用

自八十年代起，国内外地震工作者开始重视断层气的研究。近年来，我国在这方面的研究已获得了很大的进展。有关资料表明，ＣＯ２的释放与断裂活动性关系密切，它也是地震前兆的灵敏组分之一。总之，ＣＯ２是一种对地壳应力反映灵敏的气体地球化学指标，目前已被广泛应用于地震科学研究之中。就测定ＣＯ２的技术方法而言，当前国内餐主要利用气相色谱仪测定。由于气相色谱仪比较昂贵，且操作复杂，需配备具有较高素质的技术人员，所以     

关于云南丽江7级地震中短期预报

总结了对１９９６年２月３日云南丽江７级地震的中短期监视及跟踪预报过程。根据川滇地区地震活动特征和可公度性计算结果,在该次地震前对大形势进行了预测。１９９５年１０月以后,滇西北地区出现了大面积、大幅度、多手段的同步异常,其中以水氡 、水位和ＣＯ２异常为主,沿中甸－南涧的地震区分产为集中。根据上述异常特征及异常分布情况,作在该次地震前２个同大理州政府提出了书面预报意见,认为１９９６年２月底以前在中甸     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.