藏南冰前湖枪勇错近百年沉积速率变化及冰川进退反演

青藏高原上分布着大量的大陆性冰川,其对区域及全球气候变化响应极其敏感.工业革命以来,随着全球升温速率加快(特别是北半球),青藏高原部分地区的冰川在近百年显著退缩.冰前湖沉积物是最直接的冰川变化记录载体之一,但其沉积速率如何响应冰川及气候变化,能否反演冰川进退过程却知之甚少.本文依据~(210)Pb和~(137)Cs限定藏南冰前湖枪勇错QY5沉积岩芯的年龄,计算出不同深度沉积物的沉积速率,且与前人(QY-3)的沉积速率进行对比,揭示了近百年来枪勇错流域冰川变化历史及其与气温之间的关系.结果表明,枪勇错QY5近百年来的平均沉积速率为0.21 cm/a,比湖心(QY-3)快2倍左右,但两者的变化基本同步,高沉积速率对应温度上升期,是冰川退缩的直接响应:(1)1900—1960年,枪勇错沉积速率整体增加且变幅较大,与1890—1950年之间西藏温度波动式升高相对应,反映枪勇冰川总体处于退缩状态;(2)1960—1985年,沉积速率低且变幅较小,同期气温下降,枪勇冰川退缩程度相对较低且保持平稳;(3)1985年以来,枪勇错沉积速率呈上升趋势,是全球增暖下冰川显著退缩的直接响应.在短时间尺度内冰前湖沉积速率所揭示的枪勇冰川变化主要受控于温度,降水量对冰川变化的影响较小,但冰川对温度变化的响应滞后5～10 a.由于全球变暖和冰川对温度响应的滞后,在未来几十年高原冰川的融化速率可能会加快,亚洲水塔将面临着新的挑战.     

Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—regional temperature and precipitation

The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann–Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long‐term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原南部空姆错湖芯中陆源正构烷烃氢同位素比值的气候意义

在青藏高原南部空姆错钻取了一根浅湖芯,对其中时间跨度约为50年的剖面按7年间隔对其中陆源正构烷烃(C_(25),C_(27),C_(29),C_(31))进行了提取分析。通过将这些生物标志物的氢同位素比值与附近浪卡子气象站和拉萨气象站的气象参数记录进行比较,发现这些生物标志物的δD值与生长季节时段的平均气温显著相关,而与生长季节时段的降雨量和相对湿度的相关性差,说明陆源沉积正构烷烃的氢同位素比值主要记录了气温信号,可以被用于古温度重建。     

Quantitative recuperation of climatic sequences for the last 200 years in Xingcuo Lake,eastern Tibetan Plateau

The functional relation between theδ18O values in the shell of gastropod Gyraulus sibirica and the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period, and that between Sr/Ca ratio and the precipitation in the warm half-yearly period were established by calibrating the δ18O and δ13C values, Sr/Ca ratio and Mg/Ca ratio in the shell Gyraulus sibirica, as well as the total organic carbon (TOC) and its δ13C values in the Xingcuo Lake sediment in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The sequences of air temperature and precipitation in the last 200 years in the region were quantitatively recuperated on this basis. The results showed the following: (i) There was a negative correlativity between Sr/Ca ratio and the precipitation in the warm half-yearly period, its correlation coefficient was 0.86. (ii) There was an obviously positive correlativity between indexδ18O and the running average temperature in the warm half-yearly period, its correlation coefficient was 0.89. (iii) Evolution of the air temperature and the precipitation in the last 200 years can be divided into three phases distinctly. The precipitation in the later mid-19th century was 220 mm higher than that today; the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period was 2℃ lower than that of the present. The precipitation in the minimum air temperature period of the early 20th century was below that today by 60 mm, and the air temperature in the warm half-yearly period was 3.4℃ lower than that today. (iv) An evidently warming and drying trend existed in the last five decades.     

近40a西藏羊卓雍错湖泊面积变化遥感分析

羊卓雍错(以下简称羊湖)作为西藏高原三大圣湖之一和藏南重要的高原特色风景旅游景区,其具体面积众说纷纭.本文利用遥感和地理信息空间分析方法对1972-2010年羊湖面积变化进行了系统研究,并结合流域气象站资料对其原因进行初步分析.结果表明,1972-2010年湖泊平均面积为643.98 km2.1972-2010年羊湖面积呈波动式减少趋势,其中,1970s平均面积为658.78 km2,之后至1999年面积显著减少;1980s面积为636.55 km2;1990s为635.06 km2;1999-2004年面积有所增加;2004-2010年持续缩小,减幅为8.59 km2/a.湖泊空间变化特点是除了空母错和珍错两个小湖面积变化较小之外,羊湖整体面积呈现萎缩态势,其中东部嘎马林曲入口附近退缩程度最大,达1.62 km.流域气象站资料分析表明,湖泊面积和降水的变化波动存在显著耦合关系,降水变化是羊湖面积变化的主要原因;其次,流域蒸发量的明显增加,特别是2004年来连续较高的蒸发量是导致近期面积显著减少的重要原因,气温的升高进一步加剧了这一过程.羊湖的面积变化基本反映了西藏高原南部半干早季风气候区以降水补给为主的高原内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应.     

δ18O record and temperature change over the past 100 years in ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau

The 213 m ice core from the Puruogangri Ice Field on the Tibetan Plateau facilitates the study of the regional temperature changes with its δ18O record of the past 100 years. Here we combine information from this core with that from the Dasuopu ice core (from the southern Tibetan Plateau), the Guliya ice core (from the northwestern Plateau) and the Dunde ice core (from the northeastern Plateau) to learn about the regional differences in temperature change across the Tibetan Plateau. The δ18O changes vary with region on the Plateau, the variations being especially large between South and North and between East and West. Moreover, these four ice cores present increasing δ18O trends, indicating warming on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 100 years. A comparative study of Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature changes, the δ18O-reflected temperature changes on the Plateau, and available meteorological records show consistent trends in overall warming during the past 100 years.     

Relationship model of sediment grain size and Tibetan Plateau uplift in middle-west parts of Qilian Mountain

By observing, measuring the fluvial sediment grain size of mid-western segment of the Qilianshan Range and studying the correlation between the grain size and uplift of the plateau, we model the correlation. These models are applied to the Laojunmiao section and the process curve of the uplift of the northern Tibetan Plateau against age from 8.35 Ma is illustrated here. The process curve shows that the northern Tibetan Plateau surface has uplifted from the mean altitude of 900–3700 m since 8.35 MaBP. From 8.35 to 3.1 MaBP, the Tibetan Plateau uplifted slowly, uplifted amplitude is small, the total range is 420 m. From 3.1 MaBP up to now, the Tibetan Plateau uplifted tempestuously, showing that the uplift accelerated obviously later. It uplifted totally 2400 m. About 0.9 Ma ago, the northern Tibetan Plateau surface had uplifted to over 3000 m a.s.l., showing that the Tibetan Plateau surface had reached the cryosphere; and the mountain peaks had uplifted to more than 4000 m altitude, suggesting that there was a glacier developed on the mountains.     

The nutrient forms,cycling and exchange flux in the sediment and overlying water system in lakes from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

The 213 m ice core from the Puruogangri Ice Field on the Tibetan Plateau facilitates the study of the regional temperature changes with its δ ¹⁸O record of the past 100 years. Here we combine information from this core with that from the Dasuopu ice core (from the southern Tibetan Plateau), the Guliya ice core (from the northwestern Plateau) and the Dunde ice core (from the north-eastern Plateau) to learn about the regional differences in temperature change across the Tibetan Plateau. The δ ¹⁸O changes vary with region on the Plateau, the variations being especially large between South and North and between East and West. Moreover, these four ice cores present increasing δ ¹⁸O trends, indicating warming on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 100 years. A comparative study of Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature changes, the δ ¹⁸O-reflected temperature changes on the Plateau, and available meteorological records show consistent trends in overall warming during the past 100 years.     

Seismicity and focal mechanism in Tibetan Plateau and its implications to lithospheric flow

The Tibetan Plateau is characterized by its high seismicity produced by the continental collision still working at Himalaya. As seismology had made great contribution to the global tectonics in 1960s, it may also provide some improtant clues to the evolution and tectonics in continents. The present paper summarizes the seismicities, focal mechanisms and neotectionics in Tibetan Plateau. The authors suggest a new classification of the seismic belts or zones in the Plateau. The belt from Yadong to Anduo is an active seismic belt. The features of neotectonics and focal mechanisms are different on the west of this belt to the east of it. Most of the earthquakes with focal depthh>70 km in the Plateau situate on this belt. Different to Yuma, Arakan, the earthquakes withh>70 km in Yadong-Anduo belt are less and smaller, their focal mechanisms are normal faults. Appearance of earthquakes with h>70 km suggests that the uppermost mantle in this belt is unstable and the material is hard enough to accumulate strong strain energy. The authors stress the significance of the northwest-southeast striking fault zone of Yanshiping-Changdu. Several large earthquakes occurred in this fault zone are characterized by left-lateral strike slips. It is the southest one of the several left-lateral strike slip zones in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and may represent the latest produced one of the left-lateral strike slip zones. South to the Bangong-Nujiang suture, the fault zone of Bengcuo-Jiali is a belt of discontinuous right-lateral strike slips with very strong seismicities. The pair-faults of Yanshiping-Changdu left-lateral strike slips and Bengcuo-Jiali right-lateral strike slips provide an evidence of the eastward flow of materials in the lithosphere of Qiang Tang terrain between the pair-faults. Altyn Tagh, Kun Lun and Xianshuihe may represent the residuals of the boundaries of ancient flow paths. Since the sutures and also the cooling effects were produced progressively from the north to south, the flow paths will move progressively southward during the geological times. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica, supp.14, 534–565, 1992.     

全球变化下青藏高原湖泊在地表水循环中的作用

青藏高原是地球上最重要的高海拔地区之一,对全球变化具有敏感响应.青藏高原作为"亚洲水塔",其地表水资源及其变化对高原本身及周边地区的经济社会发展具有重要的影响.然而,在气候变暖的情况下,构成高原地表水资源的各个组分,如冰川、湖泊、河流、降水等水体的相变及其转化却鲜为人知.湖泊是青藏高原地表水体相变和水循环的关键环节.湖泊面积、水位和水量对西风和印度季风的降水变化非常敏感,但湖泊面积和水量变化在不同区域和时段的响应也不尽相同.湖泊水温对气候变暖具有明显响应,湖泊水温和水下温跃层深度的变化能够对水—气的热量交换具有明显影响,从而影响了区域蒸发和降水等水循环过程.由于湖泊水量增加,高原中部色林错地区湖泊盐度自1970s以来普遍下降.根据60多个湖泊实地监测建立的遥感反演模型研究发现,2000—2019年湖泊透明度普遍升高.对不同补给类型的大湖水量平衡监测发现,影响湖泊变化的气象和水文要素具有较大差异.在目前的暖湿气候条件下,青藏高原的湖泊将会持续扩张.为了深入认识湖泊变化在青藏高原区域水循环和气候变化中的作用,需要全面了解湖泊水量赋存及连续的时间序列变化,需要深入了解湖泊理化参数变化及对湖泊大气之间热量交换的影响,需要更多来自大湖流域的综合连续观测数据.     

青藏高原东南部巴松措现代沉积过程及其对气候变化的响应

湖泊沉积物是记录气候演化信息的重要载体之一,在探讨过去气候变化过程研究中发挥重要作用.然而,沉积物中的许多代用指标对气候的指示意义存在多解性,不同指标所反映的环境信息相互之间有时会存在矛盾.为了能够更准确地解读湖泊沉积物中指标所记录的环境变化信息,开展现代湖泊沉积物指标与环境之间的关系研究,深入探讨各指标对环境变化的响应机制尤为关键.本文选取青藏高原东南部巴松措湖泊表层沉积物作为研究对象,利用²¹⁰Pb与¹³⁷Cs比活度检测结果建立年代序列,对沉积物中粒度、磁化率、有机质含量等指标进行分析,揭示巴松措现代沉积过程.结合沉积物粒度端元组分分析结果,并将不同指标变化与林芝气象站所记录的数据资料进行对比,得出以下主要结论：该地区沉积物来源主要包括径流搬运的冰川碎屑物质和来自青藏高原南部、西南部上空悬浮于大气中的风成物质两部分;其中,通过风力搬运的物质输入主要集中在冬半年,受季节性风向及风速变化影响明显;径流受到冰雪融水与夏季降水的补给,因此通过径流搬运的物质输入量受到温度与降水综合影响;湖泊中磁性矿物碎屑的产生和输入主要受区域降水量影响的流域侵蚀速率变化控制,该湖泊沉积物磁化率波动可以有效的指示该地区降水量变化;沉积物中总有机碳含量和总氮含量变化主要反映湖泊自身初级生产力的变化,对区域温度变化的响应显著.     

SRES B2情景下中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差变化分布特征初步分析

本文利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS进行中国区域气候基准时段(1961～1990年)和SRES B2情景下2071～2100年(2080s)最高、最低气温及日较差变化响应的分析.气候基准时段的模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明：PRECIS具有对中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差的模拟能力，能够模拟出中国区域最高、最低气温及日较差的局地分布特征.对SRES B2情景下相对于气候基准时段的最高、最低气温及日较差变化响应分析表明：中国区域2080s时段年、冬季和夏季平均最高、最低气温变化均呈一致增加的趋势，北方地区增温幅度普遍大于南方地区.夏季东北地区极端高温事件发生的频率将会增加，而冬季华北地区极端冷害事件发生频率将会减少.未来中国区域年平均日较差将出现北方地区减小而南方地区增加的趋势.冬季长江中下游以南地区日较差呈增加趋势，而夏季华东地区、西北地区及内蒙古中部日较差将呈减小趋势，其中在青藏高原北部地区存在一个较强的低值中心.     

Changing properties of precipitation concentration in the Pearl River basin, China

In this paper, precipitation concentrations across the Pearl River basin and the associated spatial patterns are analyzed based on daily precipitation data of 42 rain gauging stations during the period 1960–2005. Regions characterized by the different changing properties of precipitation concentration index (CI) are identified. The southwest and northeast parts of the Pearl River basin are characterized by lower and decreasing precipitation CI; the northwest and south parts of the study river basin show higher and increasing precipitation CI. Higher but decreasing precipitations CI are found in the West and East River basin. Comparison of precipitation CI trends before and after 1990 shows that most parts of the Pearl River basin are characterized by increasing precipitation CI after 1990. Decreasing precipitation CI after 1990 (compared to precipitation CI changes before 1990) is observed only in a few stations located in the lower Gui River and the lower Yu River. Significant increasing precipitation CI after 1990 is detected in the West River, lower North River and upper Beipan River. These changes of precipitation CI in the Pearl River basin are likely to be associated with the consequences of the well-evidenced global warming. These findings can contribute to basin-scale water resource management and conservation of ecological environment in the Pearl River basin.     

Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China

There are about 46298 glaciers in the High Asiain China, the total glacial area is about 59406 km , andtotal glacial volume about 5590 km3. These glaciersmainly concentrate around the Himalayas Mountains,Nyainqentanglha Mountains, Kunlun Mountains,Karakoram Mountains and Tianshan Mountains. Theglaciers in the Tibetan Plateau are the major compo-nent of the glaciers in the High Asia in China. Theseglaciers extend north to the arid and desert regions,and become the main water resource in …     

The relationship between Indian monsoon precipitation along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway and differences in sensible heat flux

Sensible heat flux greatly influences the Indian monsoon. In this study, we calculated sensible heat flux time‐series for 12 sites over the western Tibetan Plateau using Price and Dunne's formula and adjusting the stability function. The time‐series were derived from the field observations from the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME)/Tibet programme under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). This paper demonstrates that monthly sensible heat fluxes show strong correlations with corresponding precipitation, and that the correlation coefficients increase with precipitation amount. The preceding winter and spring solid precipitation (snowfall and resulting snowpack) can also influence sensible heat flux in May, but the situation is complex. The correlations between heat flux and snowfall at Amdo, Naqu, and Lhasa are negative, but they are positive at Gaize (also known as Gerze) and Dingri. There is a significant relationship between how the variations from the mean calculated heat fluxes at Amdo differ from those at Rikaze, or Dingri, Cuona and Longzi, and their respective June–September precipitation amounts. This phenomenon may result from changes in circulation. When the sensible heat fluxes are above average north of the influence of the Indian monsoon and below average to the south, the summer monsoon circulation develops early and with greater intensity and precipitation, and vice versa. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Apparent quantum yield of photosynthesis of winter wheat and its response to temperature and intercellular CO2 concentration under low atmospheric pressure on Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau is characterized by lower atmospheric pressure, lower air temperature and high daily and seasonal variation due to high elevation. The photosynthesis of plants is significantly influenced by these alpine environmental factors. Apparent quantum yield (αA) is one of the basic parameters of photosynthesis and mass production. Its accuracy determination is of significance to model photosynthesis of C3 plants and global change on the plateau. In the Lhasa Plateau Ecological Station with 65.4 kPa of atmospheric pressure at an elevation of 3688 m, Li-Cor 6400 portable photosynthesis system was used to measure light response curves of winter wheat in different temperatures and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci).The slope of light response curve in weak light area of PFD from 0 to 150 μmol m-2 S-1 was used to evaluate the value of αA. The dependence of αA on temperature and intercellular concentration was analyzed. In 30℃, the average value of αAWaS 0.0476 ± 0.0038. It is not quite different from the values in low elevation areas. αA is influenced both by temperature and by the ratio of CO2and O2 partial pressure ([CO2]/[O2]). The measured values in the previous study were much lower.This might be due to systematic errors from instrument and data processing methods. The values of αA decreased linearly with temperature. It decreased 0.0007 in every 1℃ increase of temperature. The decrease slope is similar to those of C3 plants in the previous researches. While [O2] is constant, αA increases with Ciwith a hyperbolic relationship. In comparison with low elevation areas, the αA on the Tibetan Plateau is more sensitive to increase of CO2.     

Modeling the climatic effects of the land use/cover change in eastern China

This study aims to quantify the contribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) during the last three decades to climate change conditions in eastern China. The effects of farmland expansion in Northeast China, grassland degradation in Northwest China, and deforestation in South China were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in addition to the latest actual land cover datasets. The simulated results show that when forestland is converted to farmland, the air temperature decreased owing to an increase in surface albedo in Northeast China. The climatic effect of grassland degradation on the Loess Plateau was insignificant because of the negligible difference in albedo between grassland and cropland. In South China, deforestation generally led to a decrease in temperature. Furthermore, the temperature decrease caused by the increase in albedo counteracted the warming effects of the evapotranspiration decrease, so the summer temperature change was not significant in South China. Excluding the effects of urbanization in the North China Plain, the LUCC effects across the entire region of East China presented an overall cooling trend. However, the variation in temperature scale and magnitude was less in summer than that in winter. This result is due mainly to the cooling caused by the increase in albedo offset partly by the increase in temperature caused by the decrease in evaporation in summer. Summer precipitation showed a trend of increasing–decreasing–increasing from southeast to northwest after LUCC, which was induced mainly by the decrease in surface roughness and cyclone circulations appearing northwest of Northeast China, in the middle of the Loess Plateau, and in Yunnan province at 700 hPa after forests were converted into farmland. All results will be instructive for understanding the influence of LUCC on regional climate and future land planning in practice.     

Experimental study on soil CO2 emission in the alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau, the Roof of the World, is the highest plateau with a mean elevation of 4000 m. It is characterized by high levels of solar radiation, low air temperature and low air pressure compared to other regions around the world. The alpine grassland, a typical ecosystem in the Tibetan Plateau, is distributed across regions over the elevation of 4500 m. Few studies for carbon flux in alpine grassland on the Tibetan Plateau were conducted due to rigorous natural conditions. A study of soil respiration under alpine grassland ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau from October 1999 to October 2001 was conducted at Pangkog County, Tibetan Plateau (31.23°N, 90.01°E, elevation 4800 m). The measurements were taken using a static closed chamber technique, usually every two weeks during the summer and at other times at monthly intervals. The obvious diurnal variation of CO2 emissions from soil with higher emission during daytime and lower emission during nighttime was discovered. Diurnal CO2 flux fluctuated from minimum at 05:00 to maximum at 14:00 in local time. Seasonal CO2 fluxes increased in summer and decreased in winter, representing a great variation of seasonal soil respiration. The mean soil CO2 fluxes in the alpine grassland ecosystem were 21.39 mgCO2 · m-2 · h-1, with an average annual amount of soil respiration of 187.46 gCO2 · m-2 · a-1. Net ecosystem productivity is also estimated, which indicated that the alpine grassland ecosystem is a carbon sink.     

Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960–2007

Daily temperature and precipitation data from 136 stations of Southwest China (SWC) during the last five decades, from 1960 to 2007, were analysed to determine the spatial and temporal trends by using the Mann–Kendall trend test. Results show that SWC has become warmer over the last five decades, especially in the recent 20–25 years. The increasing trends in winter months are more significant than those in the months of other seasons, and spatially Tibet, Hengduan mountains area and west Sichuan Plateau have larger temperature trend in magnitude than the other regions have. A downward trend was detected in Sichuan Basin also, but the region with cooler temperature was shrinking due to the statistically significant increasing trend of temperature after 1990s. Both annual and seasonal means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend, but trend magnitude of minimum temperature was larger than that of maximum temperature, resulting in the decrease of diurnal temperature range for SWC in the last 50 years. Annual precipitation showed slightly and statistically insignificant increasing trend, but statistically significant increasing trend has been detected in winter season while autumn witnessed a statistically significant decreasing trend. The results could be a reference for the planning and management of water resources under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估

基于24个CMIP5全球耦合模式模拟结果,分析了中国区域年平均降水和ETCCDI强降水量(R95p)、极端强降水量(R99p)对增暖的响应.定量分析结果显示,CMIP5集合模拟的当代中国区域平均降水对增温的响应较观测偏弱,而极端降水的响应则偏强.对各子区域气温与平均降水、极端降水的关系均有一定的模拟能力,并且极端降水的模拟好于平均降水.RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,随着气温的升高,中国区域平均降水和极端降水均呈现一致增加的趋势,中国区域平均气温每升高1℃,平均降水增加的百分率分别为3.5%和2.4%,R95p增加百分率为11.9%和11.0%,R99p更加敏感,分别增加21.6%和22.4%.就各分区来看,当代的区域性差异较大,未来则普遍增强,并且区域性差异减小,在持续增暖背景下,中国及各分区极端降水对增暖的响应比平均降水更强,并且越强的极端降水敏感性越大.未来北方地区平均降水对增暖的响应比南方地区的要大,青藏高原和西南地区的R95p和R99p增加最显著,表明未来这些区域发生暴雨和洪涝的风险将增大.