Integrated models,scenarios and dynamics of climate,land use and common birds

Reconciling food, fiber and energy production with biodiversity conservation is among the greatest challenges of the century, especially in the face of climate change. Model-based scenarios linking climate, land use and biodiversity can be exceptionally useful tools for decision support in this context. We present a modeling framework that links climate projections, private land use decisions including farming, forest and urban uses and the abundances of common birds as an indicator of biodiversity. Our major innovation is to simultaneously integrate the direct impacts of climate change and land use on biodiversity as well as indirect impacts mediated by climate change effects on land use, all at very fine spatial resolution. In addition, our framework can be used to evaluate incentive-based conservation policies in terms of land use and biodiversity over several decades. The results for our case study in France indicate that the projected effects of climate change dominate the effects of land use on bird abundances. As a conservation policy, implementing a spatially uniform payment for pastures has a positive effect in relatively few locations and only on the least vulnerable bird species.     

中国生物质能源植物种植现状及生物多样性保护

随着国家对可再生能源的重视和扶持,我国以麻疯树等为主的能源植物种植业呈现快速的产业化发展势头.这种生物质能源植物的产业化种植可能会对生物多样性带来影响,如对生态系统与栖息地的影响等,但这些影响还存在着诸多的不确定性和争议.从防患于未然的角度,对我国的生物质能源植物种植业发展提出了相应的建议:在生物多样性敏感地区的种植规划和项目应进行生物多样性影响评价,应尽可能使用当地物种并进行合理的配置,尽可能减少大规模单一物种的种植模式,注意原有生境的完整性和生态廊道的维持;同时,需要政府部门加大科学研究支持力度并做好监测工作,以实现我国生物质能源植物种植业和生物多样性保护的双赢.     

Necessity-driven circular economy in low-income contexts: How informal sector practices retain value for circularity

Low-income informal sector contexts are rife in practices that retain value of materials and goods, but in the academic literature and policy debates these practices are seldom considered as part of the circular economy (CE). This is a major omission in CE discourse, as over 60 percent of the world’s employed population is in the informal sector and many of them make their living from circularity practices. Hence, our paper advances a globally covering understanding of CE by focusing on local practices constituting CE in the overlooked contexts of low-income informal markets of emerging economies, and on the motives behind the practices. To that end we introduce the notion of Necessity-Driven Circular Economy, defined as a set of locally embedded and interlinked formal and informal practices aimed at restoring and retaining the value of goods and materials for as long as possible, based on economic necessity and opportunities for income generation. We substantiate this conceptual work with our empirical findings from low-income urban communities in Brazil, India, and Tanzania. This allows us to capture the essential characteristics of necessity-driven circular economy. These characteristics draw attention to the social and cultural embeddedness and the interweaving of consumption and production in necessity-driven circular economy, as opposed to the dominant techno-economic and industry-focused circular economy conceptualizations that are typical in academic discourse and portray developed country contexts. Finally, we discuss conceptual and practical relevance of necessity-driven circular economy and point out its system-level implications for policymakers and businesses.     

The integrated socio-perceptual approach: Using ecological mental maps and future imaginaries to understand land use decisions

Rural places are important centers of environmental and social transformation. Landholders are not only affected by socio-environmental changes, but they are influencing futures related to climate change, food security, freshwater, biodiversity, and social and economic development. Much environmental land use work understands individual landholders as rational actors, portrayed through the economic lens of “producer.” These approaches generally focus on present capacities and limitations as the principal factors contributing to land use, and the individual farm as the reference unit for decisions. Our research takes steps to expand conceptualizations of rural landholders as active and knowledgeable in envisioning, managing, and shaping environmental futures. We design and test a new approach using ecological mental maps and future imaginaries to understand land use practices through a case study in the cocoa-producing and Atlantic Forest region of Southern Bahia, Brazil. The integrated socio-perceptual (ISP) approach combines qualitative and quantitative methodologies to honor the depth of landholders’ experiences and perspectives and to allow broader regional relationships and insights to emerge. We demonstrate that the ISP approach—through 49 surveys—has the capacity to capture variation and identify patterns in ecological mental maps and future imaginaries in a population, approximate the relevant spatial scales underlying these factors, and identify relationships between these and land uses. In this context, the types of narratives landholders hold about the region’s future are associated with current forest land use on their properties. We discuss potential applications of the ISP approach for land use study and practice.     

Exploring some of the myths of land use change: Can rural to urban migration drive declines in biodiversity?

Forest transition theory describes a reversal in land-use trends for a given area, from a period of net forest area loss, to a period of net forest area gain. Some assume that such forest gain necessarily equates with biodiversity conservation. We question this assumption, based on research conducted in Oaxaca, Mexico. In Oaxaca's northern highlands, low intensity forest use and rotational (milpa) agriculture have led to pronounced spatial heterogeneity in forest structure and composition, and created a high-biodiversity forest-agriculture mosaic. In the Zapotec community of San Juan Evangelista Analco and the Chinantec community of Santiago Comaltepec, as across much of Oaxaca, fewer people are farming; farmers are cultivating less land, working closer to settlements, and growing fewer crop varieties. Widespread agricultural abandonment has initiated unprecedented changes in ecological succession, patch size, and edge effects, which we speculate will be having an impact on the biodiversity of the landscape mosaic. Our work suggests that the decline of land use activity may result in a gradual loss of the forest-agriculture mosaic, leading to localised declines in biodiversity, despite (or because of) extensive forest resurgence. These findings support the view that indigenous cultures in Oaxaca and Mexico should not be seen as an environmental constraint but rather as an agent of landscape renewal that allows for both cultural and biological diversity to flourish, a reality that national and international conservation bodies need to more fully recognise and incorporate into policy.     

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Costs over the Life Cycle of Wood and Alternative Flooring Materials

Increased use of wood can substitute more energy demanding products and thus contribute to a long-term solution to the global warming problem. The aim of this article is to provide an empirical study on this substitution impact, its cost-effectiveness, and which methodological assumptions that are of highest importance for the results obtained. We have made a case study where we compare use of various flooring materials. The results show that floor covering in solid oak causes lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than the other materials. The difference can be ranked in the following order, after their potential for reduction in GHG emissions: Carpet in wool, carpet in polyamide, vinyl, and linoleum. At 2% pro anno discount rate, the avoided GHG emission in tons per m³ of oak flooring used is 0.1–1.9 for linoleum, and 11.8–15.5 for wool carpets. Unless the solution in solid oak is on total less expensive over the lifetime of the building, only the price of avoided emissions from a substitution between solid oak and carpet in wool is reasonable, compared to present carbon fees. The assumptions that influence the result most are choice of discount rate, carbon fixation on forest area, and waste handling. Empirical case studies like this indicate GHG emission reduction potentials caused by substitution, but should be complemented by dynamic input/output analyses and econometric studies. To analyse the flow of CO₂ over time, they should also be linked to forest management models.     

The role of protected areas and land tenure regimes on forest loss in Bolivia: Accounting for spatial spillovers

The conversion of tropical forests to croplands and grasslands is a major threat to global biodiversity, climate and local livelihoods and ecosystems. The enforcement of protected areas as well as the clarification and strengthening of collective and individual land property rights are key instruments to curb deforestation in the tropics. However, these instruments are territorial and can displace forest loss elsewhere. We investigate the effects of protected areas and various land tenure regimes on deforestation and possible spillover effects in Bolivia, a global tropical deforestation hotspot. We use a spatial Durbin model to assess and compare the direct and indirect effects of protected areas and different land tenure forms on forest loss in Bolivia from 2010 to 2017. We find that protected areas have a strong direct effect on reducing deforestation. Protected areas – which in Bolivia are all based on co-management schemes - also protect forests in adjacent areas, showing an indirect protective spillover effect. Indigenous lands however only have direct forest protection effects. Non-indigenous collective lands and small private lands, which are associated to Andean settlers, as well as non-titled lands, show a strong positive direct effect on deforestation. At the same time, there is some evidence that non-indigenous collective lands also encourage deforestation in adjacent areas, indicating the existence of spillovers. Interestingly, areas with high poverty rate tend to be less affected by deforestation whatever tenure form. Our study stresses the need to assess more systematically the direct and indirect effects of land tenure and of territorial governance instruments on land use changes.     

辽宁省循环经济指标体系的建立与评价

根据循环经济的基本原理,阐述了建立辽宁省循环经济指标体系的原则,提出了构建包括经济系统、资源系统和环境系统在内的循环经济指标体系,并运用AHP(层次分析法)方法,对2004年辽宁省14个市的循环经济发展现状进行了评价。结果表明:循环经济发展水平居前7位的城市分别为沈阳、大连、盘锦、鞍山、抚顺、葫芦岛和营口。研究成果可为辽宁省循环经济发展提供技术依据。     

Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia

Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects for the case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km² of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets.     

Deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the conservation implications of an internationally-engaged Myanmar

Myanmar is a country of huge biodiversity importance that is undergoing major political change, bringing with it new international engagement. This includes access to international markets, which will likely spur investment in export-oriented agriculture, leading to increased pressures on already threatened ecosystems. This scenario is illustrated in the Ayeyarwady Delta, the country's agricultural heartland sustaining high deforestation rates. Using the Delta as a model system, we use an integrated approach to inquire about whether and how imminent agricultural reforms associated with an internationally-engaged Myanmar could introduce new actors and incentives to invest in agricultural expansion that could affect deforestation rates. We use a novel remote sensing analysis to quantify deforestation rates for the Delta from 1978 to 2011, develop business-as-usual deforestation scenarios, and contextualize those results with an analysis of contemporary policy changes within Myanmar that are expected to alter the principal drivers of land-cover change. We show that mangrove systems of Myanmar are under greater threat than previously recognized, and that agriculture has been the principle driver of deforestation on the Delta. The centrality of agriculture to the Myanmar economy indicates that emerging policies are likely to tip the scales towards agricultural expansion, agro-industrial investment and potentially greater rates of deforestation due to the introduction of well-funded investors, insufficient land tenure agreements, and low governance effectiveness. The broad national challenge is to initiate environmental governance reforms (including safeguards) in the face of significant pressures for land grabbing and opportunistic resource extraction.     

Evaluation of the Biodiversity Conservation Function in Liaohe Delta Wetland,Northeastern China

The scientific evaluation of the wetland biodiversity conservation function is the basis of balanced wetland protection and development. Our research sought to provide references for the protection of wetland ecological environments as well as the related planning and management policies. The study established a fitting model for evaluating the biodiversity conservation function in the Liaohe Delta, northeastern China. The new model, the Wetland Biodiversity Conservation Indicator(WBCI), was with four input factors, including the vegetation coverage(VC), habitat suitability index(HI), land use and land cover(LULC) index(LI), and threat factor index(TI) of the LULC type. The values assigned to HI and TI were based on Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(In VEST)habitat quality models. The weights of all the factors in WBCI were valued with the Principal Component Analysis(PCA). We evaluated the wetland biodiversity conservation function of Panjin, Liaohe Delta, China, by using the WBCI model based on Gaofen-1(GF-1) satellite data in 2018, and the result was verified with In VEST and other models. It showed that the output map was similar to that of In VEST, with the higher-quality habitat including the wetland, tidal flat, water body, and forest, as well as the lower-quality land use types including the paddy field, crop field, construction land, and land used by traffic. The wetland biodiversity conservation function was better in areas less affected by human disturbance, with very abundant species and good-quality habitat. It was poor in areas impacted by more frequent human activities such as the land cultivation, housing, and traffic, which led to the landscape fragmentation. The WBCI model provided a more accurate reflection of the bird distribution than the In VEST model. The WBCI model was able to reflect the difference in quality of each habitat grade, in contrast to the net primary productivity(NPP) method and species distribution models(SDMs). The new model was, therefore, simpler and suitable in reflecting the quality of wetland biodiversity function in the Liaohe Delta.     

Mapping and modelling trade-offs and synergies between grazing intensity and ecosystem services in rangelands using global-scale datasets and models

Vast areas of rangelands across the world are grazed with increasing intensity, but interactions between livestock production, biodiversity and other ecosystem services are poorly studied. This study explicitly determines trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services and livestock grazing intensity on rangelands. Grazing intensity and its effects on forage utilization by livestock, carbon sequestration, erosion prevention and biodiversity are quantified and mapped, using global datasets and models. Results show that on average 4% of the biomass produced annually is consumed by livestock. On average, erosion prevention is 10% lower in areas with a high grazing intensity compared to areas with a low grazing intensity, whereas carbon emissions are more than four times higher under high grazing intensity compared to low grazing intensity. Rangelands with the highest grazing intensity are located in the Sahel, Pakistan, West India, Middle East, North Africa and parts of Brazil. These high grazing intensities result in carbon emissions, low biodiversity values, low capacity for erosion prevention and unsustainable forage utilization. Although the applied models simplify the processes of ecosystem service supply, our study provides a global overview of the consequences of grazing for biodiversity and ecosystem services. The expected increasing future demand for livestock products likely increase pressures on rangelands. Global-scale models can help to identify targets and target areas for international policies aiming at sustainable future use of these rangelands.     

Governing community forests and the challenge of solving two-level collective action dilemmas—A large-N perspective

The effectiveness of forest governance practices has consequences that range from the local to the global level. In general, the study of community forest governance relies heavily on case-study materials. The strength of single case and small-N comparative studies is related to the ability to uncover the nuances of time and place specific particularities. A recognized weakness of this approach relates to the fact that results cannot easily be extrapolated. For my analysis, I use a large-N, cross-national dataset instead. What constitutes an effective local forest governance regime? I show that especially monitoring – and to a lesser extent, maintenance – is correlated with improving forest conditions. When are effective governance regimes likely to emerge? I show that social capital, organization, leadership and autonomy contribute to the development of institutions for collective action. How does competition between forest users affect governance? I provide empirical evidence that two-level collective action dilemmas hinder the emergence of effective governance regimes.     

Bio-cultural refugia—Safeguarding diversity of practices for food security and biodiversity

Food security for a growing world population is high on the list of grand sustainability challenges, as is reducing the pace of biodiversity loss in landscapes of food production. Here we shed new insights on areas that harbor place specific social memories related to food security and stewardship of biodiversity. We call them bio-cultural refugia. Our goals are to illuminate how bio-cultural refugia store, revive and transmit memory of agricultural biodiversity and ecosystem services, and how such social memories are carried forward between people and across cohorts. We discuss the functions of such refugia for addressing the twin goals of food security and biodiversity conservation in landscapes of food production. The methodological approach is first of its kind in combining the discourses on food security, social memory and biodiversity management. We find that the rich biodiversity of many regionally distinct cultural landscapes has been maintained through a mosaic of management practices that have co-evolved in relation to local environmental fluctuations, and that such practices are carried forward by both biophysical and social features in bio-cultural refugia including; genotypes, artifacts, written accounts, as well as embodied rituals, art, oral traditions and self-organized systems of rules. Combined these structure a diverse portfolio of practices that result in genetic reservoirs—source areas—for the wide array of species, which in interplay produce vital ecosystem services, needed for future food security related to environmental uncertainties, volatile financial markets and large scale conflicts. In Europe, processes related to the large-scale industrialization of agriculture threaten such bio-cultural refugia. The paper highlights that the dual goals to reduce pressures from modern agriculture on biodiversity, while maintaining food security, entails more extensive collaboration with farmers oriented toward ecologically sound practices.     

Carbon sequestration and environmental effects of afforestation with Pinus radiata D. Don in the Western Cape, South Africa

A three-step methodology to assess the carbon sequestration and the environmental impact of afforestation projects in the framework of the Flexible Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol (Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism) was developed and tested using a dataset collected from the Jonkershoek forest plantation, Western Cape, South Africa, which was established with Pinus radiata in former native fynbos vegetation and indigenous forest. The impact of a change in land use was evaluated for a multifunctional, a production and a non-conversion scenario. First, the carbon balance was modelled with GORCAM and was expressed as (1) C sequestration in tC ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in soil, litter, and living biomass according to the rules of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) CO₂ emission reductions in tC ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, which includes carbon sequestered in the above-mentioned pools and additionally in wood products, as well as emission reductions due to fossil fuel substitution. To estimate forest growth, three data sources were used: (1) inventory data, (2) growth simulation with a process-based model, and (3) yield tables. Second, the effects of land use change were assessed for different project scenarios using a method related to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The method uses 17 quantitative indicators to describe the impact of project activities on water, soil, vegetation cover and biodiversity. Indicator scores were calculated by comparing indicator values with reference values, estimated for the climax vegetation. The climax vegetation is the site-specific ecosystem phase with the highest exergy content and the highest exergy flow dissipation capacity. Third, the land use impact per functional unit of 1 tC sequestered was calculated by combining the results of step 1 and step 2. The average baselines to obtain carbon additionality are 476 tC ha⁻¹ for indigenous forest and 32 tC ha⁻¹ for fynbos. Results show that the influence of the growth assessment method on the magnitude of C sequestration and hence on the environmental impact per functional unit is large. When growth rate is assessed with the mechanistic model and with the yield table, it is overestimated in the early years and underestimated in the long term. The main conclusion of the scenario analysis is that the production forest scenario causes higher impacts per functional unit than the multifunctional scenario, but with the latter being less efficient in avoiding CO₂ emissions. The proposed method to assess impacts on diverse components of the ecosystem is able to estimate the general tendency of the adverse and positive effects of each scenario. However, some indicators, more specifically about biodiversity and water balance, could be improved or reinterpreted in light of specific local data about threat to biodiversity and water status.     

Targeting areas for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects in Tanzania

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has gained momentum as a climate mitigation strategy that can be implemented at multiple scales. Sub-nationally, REDD+ projects that aim to capture carbon funding are implemented throughout tropical countries. A spatial targeting approach for optimal REDD+ project landscape is demonstrated using Tanzania as an example. This study used GIS-based Multi-criteria Decision Analysis to identify potential areas for REDD+ projects development incorporating different combinations of criteria. The first approach, efficient targeting, focuses on areas with high forest carbon content, high deforestation risk and low opportunity cost. The second approach, co-benefits targeting, aims at areas with high biodiversity and high poverty rate on top of criteria in efficient targeting. The resulting suitability maps displays areas of high, medium and low suitability for future REDD+ projects development based on the targeting approaches. Locations of current REDD+ projects in Tanzania were also overlaid with suitability map to visually inspect how they match up. This approach allows decision-makers to prioritize preferences for various site-selection criteria and make informed decisions about REDD+ projects locations.     

Assessing protected area’s carbon stocks and ecological structure at regional-scale using GEDI lidar

Protected areas (PAs) serve as a critical strategy for protecting natural resources, conserving biodiversity, and mitigating climate change. While there is a critical need to guide area-based conservation efforts, a systematic assessment of PA effectiveness for storing carbon stocks has not been possible due to the lack of globally consistent forest biomass data. In this study, we present a new methodology utilizing forest structural information and aboveground biomass density (AGBD) obtained from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission. We compare PAs with similar, unprotected forests obtained through statistical matching to assess differences in carbon storage and forest structure. We also assess matching outcomes for a robust and minimally biased way to quantify PA efficacy. We find that all analyzed PAs in Tanzania possess higher biomass densities than their unprotected counterfactuals (24.4% higher on average). This is also true for other forest structure metrics, including tree height, canopy cover, and plant area index (PAI). We also find that community-governed PAs are the most effective category of PAs at preserving forest structure and AGBD – often outperforming those managed by international or national entities. In addition, PAs designated under more than one entity perform better than the PAs with a single designation, especially those with multiple international designations. Finally, our findings suggest that smaller PAs may be more effective for conservation, depending on levels of connectivity. Taken together, these findings support the designation of PAs as an effective means for forest management with considerable potential to protect forest ecosystems and achieve long-term climate goals.     

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.     

Community forest management (CFM) in south-west Ethiopia: Maintaining forests,biodiversity and carbon stocks to support wild coffee conservation

Community forest management (CFM) is increasingly recognised as a potentially effective way of maintaining forests, especially in the Global South. Despite the growing adoption of this approach, the results have been mixed and there is a need to explore both the ways in which a wider range of benefits can be obtained and how CFM can be implemented more effectively. New forest legislation on community forest management in the Southern Region of Ethiopia in 2012, alongside the development of a highly devolved method of CFM, provided a natural experiment for testing the effectiveness of this method as a way of maintaining forest and also supporting biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. The specific circumstances and details of the methods applied also provided an opportunity to compare this approach against other experiences of CFM to assess factors seen to be influencing success. This study was undertaken in an area of montane forest in south-west Ethiopia, which includes some of the remaining stands of wild Coffea arabica, and so it also sought to create supportive conditions for the in situ conservation of the wild coffee. Analyses of this approach to CFM over the six years show that the loss of forest was reduced to 0.18% per annum in the CFM managed areas compared to 2.6% per annum in the non-CFM forest, while biodiversity, in terms of species diversity, richness and evenness of distribution, was maintained in the natural forest managed under CFM. Carbon storage also increased in the natural forest managed under CFM. While the long-term results will only be seen after several decades, the findings show that the use of a highly devolved form of CFM, responding to felt needs and building up a community of practice were some of the positive influences which helped in achieving multiple impacts towards sustainable forest management and wild coffee conservation.     

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia accounts for a disproportionate global scale fraction of both carbon emissions from biomass burning and biodiversity erosion through habitat loss. Here we use field- and remote-sensing data to examine the effects of private landholding size on the amount and type of forest cover retained within economically active rural properties in an aging southern Amazonian deforestation frontier. Data on both upland and riparian forest cover from a survey of 300 rural properties indicated that 49.4% (SD = 29.0%) of the total forest cover was maintained as of 2007, and that property size is a key regional-scale determinant of patterns of deforestation and land-use change. Small properties (≤150 ha) retained a lower proportion of forest (20.7%, SD = 17.6) than did large properties (>150 ha; 55.6%, SD = 27.2). Generalized linear models showed that property size had a positive effect on remaining areas of both upland and total forest cover. Using a Landsat time-series, the age of first clear-cutting that could be mapped within the boundaries of each property had a negative effect on the proportion of upland, riparian, and total forest cover retained. Based on these data, we show contrasts in land-use strategies between smallholders and largeholders, as well as differences in compliance with legal requirements in relation to minimum forest cover set-asides within private landholdings. This suggests that property size structure must be explicitly considered in landscape-scale conservation planning initiatives guiding agro-pastoral frontier expansion into remaining areas of tropical forest.