A study of convective systems, water vapor and top of the atmosphere cloud radiative forcing over the Indian Ocean using INSAT-1B and ERBE data

Summary The distribution of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean is investigated using satellite observations. Two key regions are considered: The eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal which experience maximum upper-level cloudiness in winter and summer respectively. It is found that longwave CRF in the Bay of Bengal during summer is similar to that over the eastern Indian Ocean during winter. On the other hand shortwave CRF magnitude is larger in the Bay of Bengal. These differences explain the net CRF difference between the two regions. The stronger shortwave forcing seems to be related to the Upper-Level Cloudiness being larger over the Bay than over the eastern Indian Ocean. The reasons for the longwave CRF similarities are analysed in more details. Using the results from a convective system classification method, it is first shown that the longwave radiative properties of the individual systems do not vary much from one region to another. The distribution of the different kind of systems, a proxy for the vertical cloudiness structure, does not either indicate strong difference between the regions. It is then proposed that the substantial precipitable water vapour amount observed over the Bay of Bengal damps the effects of the upper-level cloudiness on radiation compared to the relatively dryer eastern Indian Ocean area; yielding to similar LW CRF in both region despite more Upper-Level Cloudiness over the Bay of Bengal. These observations are supported by idealised radiative transfer computations. The distribution of cloudiness and radiative forcing is then analysed over the whole tropical Indian Ocean for each season. July is characterized by a low longwave CRF regime (relative to January) over the most convectively active part of the Ocean. The non linear damping effect of water vapor on longwave CRF is also shown to contribute to this regime. Overall, this study reaffirms the need for simultaneous documentation of the cloud systems properties together with their moist environment in order to understand the overall net radiative signature of tropical convection at the top of the atmosphere (TOA).     

Intraseasonal and interannual zonal circulations over the Equatorial Indian Ocean

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and given phases of the Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) show similar regional signatures over the Equatorial Indian Ocean, consisting in an enhancement or reversing of the convective and dynamic zonal gradients between East Africa and the Maritime Continent of Indonesia. This study analyses how these two modes of variability add or cancel their effects at their respective timescales, through an investigation of the equatorial cellular circulations over the central Indian Ocean. Results show that (1) the wind shear between the lower and upper troposphere is related to marked regional rainfall anomalies and is embedded in larger-scale atmospheric configurations, involving the Southern Oscillation; (2) the intraseasonal (30?C60?days) and interannual (4?C5?years) timescales are the most energetic frequencies that modulate these circulations, confirming the implication of the MJO and ENSO; (3) extreme values of the Indian Ocean wind shear result from the combination of El Ni?o and the MJO phase enhancing atmospheric convection over Africa, or La Ni?a and the MJO phase associated with convective activity over the Maritime Continent. Consequences for regional rainfall anomalies over East Africa and Indonesia are then discussed.     

The impact of the diurnal cycle on the MJO over the Maritime Continent: a modeling study assimilating TRMM rain rate into global analysis

In the present study, we use modeling experiments to investigate the impact of the diurnal cycle on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the Australian summer. Physical initialization and a nudging technique enable us to assimilate the observed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rain rate and atmospheric variables from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 2 (R2) into the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM), resulting in a realistic simulation of the MJO. Model precipitation is also significantly improved by TRMM rain rate observation via the physical initialization. We assess the influence of the diurnal cycle on the MJO by modifying the diurnal component during the model integration. Model variables are nudged toward the daily averaged values from R2. Globally suppressing the diurnal cycle (NO_DIURNAL) exerts a strong impact on the Maritime Continent. The mean state of precipitation increases and intraseasonal variability becomes stronger over the region. It is well known that MJO weakens as it passes over the Maritime Continent. However, the MJO maintains its strength in the NO_DIURNAL experiment, and the diminution of diurnal signals during the integration does not change the propagating speed of the MJO. We suggest that diminishing the diurnal cycle in NO_DIURNAL consumes less moist static energy (MSE), which is required to trigger both diurnal and intraseasonal convection. Thus, the remaining MSE may play a major role along with larger convective instability and stronger lower level moisture convergence in intensifying the MJO over the Maritime Continent in the model simulation.     

Modulation of Intraseasonal (25–70 Day) Processes by theSuperimposed ENSO Cycle Across the Pacific Basin

Summary  Although variability is a fundamental aspect of the climate system, the interaction of different time scales of variability remains difficult to assess and verbalize. Two well-documented examples of tropical variability on different time scales are the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Using the fifteen-year ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA) data archive and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, some of the ENSO modulations of the intraseasonal MJO are examined. During El Ni˜o years, the MJO convection is able to propagate farther eastward into the central Pacific than it typically does during normal years. The corresponding intraseasonal circulation anomalies are similarly translated farther east. However, not all changes are this straight forward; for example, MJO convection is found to occur within westerly wind bursts during the Normal years, but somewhat ahead of the winds during El Ni˜o. ENSO-induced changes to the large-scale upper-tropospheric state provide different environments for outflow from MJO convection across the North Pacific. During the El Ni?o years, the eastward shift of the local Hadley circulation means that MJO convection must propagate farther east to reach an environment in which its meridional outflow can produce an appropriate Rossby wave source for the extension of the east Asian jet and subsequent midlatitude height falls. Received December 1, 1998     

Intraseasonal atmospheric variability and its interannual modulation in Central Africa

The spatial and temporal structures of the intraseasonal atmospheric variability over central Africa is investigated using 2.5°?×?2.5° daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis zonal winds for the period 1980–2010. The study begins with an overview of the Central African rainfall regime, noting in particular the contrast amongst Western and Eastern parts, with different topography and surface conditions features. The annual mean rainfall and OLR over the region revealed a zone of intense convective activity centered on the equator near 30°E, which extends southward and covers almost all the Congo forest. The annual cycle of rainfall reflects the classical bi-annual shift of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone across the equatorial belt, between 10°S and 10°N. The result of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis has shown that the three leading EOF modes explain about 45?% of total intraseasonal variability. The power spectra of all the three corresponding principal components (PCs) peak around 45–50?days, indicating a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal. The first mode exhibits high positive loadings over Northern Congo, the second over Southern Ethiopia and the third over Southwestern Tanzania. The PCs time series revealed less interannual modulation of intraseasonal oscillations for the Congo mode, while Ethiopian and Tanzanian modes exhibit strong interannual variations. H?vmoller plots of OLR, 200 and 850?hPa NCEP zonal winds found the eastward propagating features to be the dominant pattern in all the three times series, but this propagation is less pronounced in the OLR than in the 850 and 200?hpa zonal wind anomalies. An index of MJO strength was built by averaging the 30–50?day power for each day. A plot of MJO indices and El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle confirm a strong interannual modulation of MJO over Eastern central Africa partially linked with the ENSO events (El Ni?o and La Ni?a). Strong MJO activity is observed during La Ni?a years or during ENSO-neutral years, while weak or absent MJO activity is typically associated with strong El Ni?o episodes.     

Current problems in the stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer

Extended sheets of stratocumulus (Sc) in the upper part of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) often occur under appropriate meteorological conditions. These cloud decks are important both in climate studies and in weather forecasting. We review the current knowledge of the turbulent structure of the ABL capped by a cloud deck, in the light of recent observations and model studies. The most important physical processes determining this structure are longwave radiative cooling at cloud top, shortwave radiative wanning by absorption in the cloud, surface buoyancy flux, and wind shear in the ABL. As a result, turbulence can cause entrainment against the buoyancy jump at cloud top. In cases where only longwave radiative fluxes and surface buoyancy fluxes are important, the turbulent structure is relatively well understood. When shortwave radiative fluxes and/or wind shear are also important, the resulting turbulent structure may change considerably. A decoupling of the cloud from the sub-cloud layer or of the top of the cloud from the rest of the ABL is then regularly observed. In no cases are the details of the entrainment at cloud top understood well enough to derive a relatively simple formulation that is consistent with observations. Cloud-top entrainment instability may lead to the break-up of a cloud deck (but also to cloud deepening). The role of mesoscale circulations in determining fractional cloudiness is not yet well understood.     

全球变化背景下北半球冬季MJO传播的年代际变化

利用1979~2013年实时多要素MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）监测（RMM）指数,美国NOAA逐日长波辐射资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析了全球变化背景下北半球冬季MJO传播的年代际变化特征。从全球平均气温快速增暖期（1985~1997）到变暖趋缓期（2000~2012）,MJO 2~4位相频次减少,5~7位相频次增多,即MJO对流活跃区在热带印度洋地区停留时间缩短、传播速度加快,而在热带西太平洋停留时间加长、传播明显减缓。进一步分析发现,以上MJO的年代际变化特征与全球变化年代际波动有关。当太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）处于负位相时,全球变暖趋缓,热带东印度洋—西太平洋海温异常偏暖,使其上空对流加强,垂直上升运动加强,对流层低层辐合,大气中的水汽含量增多,该区域的湿静力能（MSE）为正异常。当MJO对流活跃区位于热带印度洋地区时,MJO异常环流对季节平均MSE的输送在强对流中心东侧为正、西侧为负,有利于东侧MSE扰动增加,使得MJO对流扰动东移加快;而当MJO对流活跃区在热带西太平洋地区,MJO异常环流对平均MSE的输送形成东负西正的形势,东侧MSE扰动减小,不利于MJO快速东传。因此,全球变化背景下PDO引起的大气中水汽含量及MSE的变化可能是MJO传播年代际变化的重要原因。     

The self-organizing map,a new approach to apprehend the Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on the intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the southern African region

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major mode of intraseasonal variability (30–60 days) in the tropics, having large rainfall impacts globally, and possibly on southern Africa. However, the latter impact is not well understood and needs to be further explored. The life cycle of the MJO, known to be asymmetric, has been nevertheless analyzed usually through methods constrained by both linearity and orthogonality, such as empirical orthogonal function analysis. Here we explore a non-linear classification method, the self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural network used to produce a low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional datasets, to capture more accurately the life cycle of the MJO and its global impacts. The classification is applied on intraseasonal anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation within the tropical region over the 1980–2009 period. Using the SOM to describe the MJO is a new approach, complimentary to the usual real-time multivariate MJO index. It efficiently captures this propagative phenomenon and its seasonality, and is shown to provide additional temporal and spatial information on MJO activity. For each node, the subtropical convection is analyzed, with a particular focus on the southern Africa region. Results show that the convection activity over the central tropical Indian Ocean is a key factor influencing the intraseasonal convective activity over the southern African region. Enhanced (suppressed) convection over the central Indian Ocean tends to suppress (enhance) convection over the southern African region with a 10-day lag by modulating the moisture transport.     

印度洋地区MJO对流生成动力学机制的研究进展

Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO）是热带大气在季节内时间尺度上的主要变化特征,MJO对流的活动对全球很多地区的天气和气候系统都有重要的影响,因此MJO是大气科学重要的前沿课题之一.MJO对流的生成过程是MJO研究中公认的最薄弱的环节,文中从MJO的研究背景出发,对MJO对流生成的有关研究工作及其进展进行了回顾与总结,主要包括MJO对流生成的前期信号、MJO对流的数值模拟、MJO对流生成的动力学机制.最后对MJO对流生成研究中还有待解决的问题进行了分析与讨论.     

Processes controlling the surface temperature signature of the Madden�CJulian Oscillation in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean

During boreal winter, there is a prominent maximum of intraseasonal sea-surface temperature (SST) variability associated with the Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) along a Thermocline Ridge located in the southwestern Indian Ocean (5°S?C10°S, 60°E?C90°E; TRIO region). There is an ongoing debate about the relative importance of air-sea heat fluxes and oceanic processes in driving this intraseasonal SST variability. Furthermore, various studies have suggested that interannual variability of the oceanic structure in the TRIO region could modulate the amplitude of the MJO-driven SST response. In this study, we use observations and ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to quantify these two effects over the 1997?C2006 period. Observational analysis indicates that Ekman pumping does not contribute significantly (on average) to intraseasonal SST variability. It is, however, difficult to quantify the relative contribution of net heat fluxes and entrainment to SST intraseasonal variability from observations alone. We therefore use a suite of OGCM experiments to isolate the impacts of each process. During 1997?C2006, wind stress contributed on average only about 20% of the intraseasonal SST variability (averaged over the TRIO region), while heat fluxes contributed about 70%, with forcing by shortwave radiation (75%) dominating the other flux components (25%). This estimate is consistent with an independent air-sea flux product, which indicates that shortwave radiation contributes 68% of intraseasonal heat flux variability. The time scale of the heat-flux perturbation, in addition to its amplitude, is also important in controlling the intraseasonal SST signature, with longer periods favouring a larger response. There are also strong year-to-year variations in the respective role of heat fluxes and wind stress. Of the five strong cooling events identified in both observations and the model (two in 1999 and one in 2000, 2001 and 2002), intraseasonal-wind stress dominates the SST signature during 2001 and contributes significantly during 2000. Interannual variations of the subsurface thermal structure associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole or El Ni?o/La Ni?a events modulate the MJO-driven SST signature only moderately (by up to 30%), mainly by changing the temperature of water entrained into the mixed layer. The primary factor that controls year-to-year changes in the amplitude of TRIO, intraseasonal SST anomalies is hence the characteristics of intraseasonal surface flux perturbations, rather than changes in the underlying oceanic state.     

Madden-Julian variability in NCAR CAM2.0 and CCSM2.0

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on time scales of 30–70 days. During the boreal winter/spring it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. Here, 20–100 day bandpass filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the months of November–March from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 (NCAR CAM2.0) and the Community Coupled System Model Version 2.0 (CCSM2.0) models is projected onto the observed patterns of MJO convection. This provides for the analysis of the models within a standard framework. Additionally, only analyzing years when the lead/lag relationship of the simulated principal components lie in the observed phase-space better isolates the simulated MJO signal. CCSM2.0 yields a better representation of the MJO than CAM2.0 due to the presence of air-sea interaction. Even so, the amplitude and spatial extent of the intraseasonal convection are underestimated relative to observed OLR, with a pronounced underestimate of the near-equatorial convection. Due to the development of a split inter-tropical convergence zone in the western Pacific, which is independent of the MJO, the models are precluded from representing the low-level moisture convergence that is central to the eastward propagation of the MJO. Once the systematic model error is remedied the underlying capability of the models to simulate the MJO will be possible.     

Interactions between synoptic, intraseasonal and interannual convective variability over Southern Africa

After removing the annual cycle, a principal component analysis is applied to the daily outgoing longwave radiation anomaly field, used here as a proxy for atmospheric convection. The analysis is carried out over the southern African region (7.5°E–70°E, 10°S–40°S) for austral summer (November through February) for the period 1979–1980 to 2006–2007. The first five principal components (PC) are retained. The first two PCs describe spatial patterns oriented north-west to south-east from tropical southern Africa (SA) to the mid-latitudes. They are interpreted to be different possible locations for synoptic-scale tropical–temperate troughs (TTT), one dominant rainfall-producing synoptic system in the region. The phase relationship between these two PCs describes a tendency for these TTT to propagate eastwards from SA to the Mozambique Channel and southern Madagascar. The next three PCs describe convective fluctuations, respectively, located over the north-west, the south and the centre of SA. Their time series are significantly associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity in the tropics. However, we find that TTT systems are statistically independent of the MJO, i.e. they are equally liable to occur during any phase of the MJO. Three PCs out of five also show a significant association with El Niño southern oscillation, confirming that El Niño years mostly coincide with suppressed convection at the intraseasonal time-scales, a result consistent with its impact on seasonal averages diagnosed in previous studies.     

MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal climate variability and has significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing prediction of the MJO using state of the art observational data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving global intraseasonal climate prediction. MJO prediction is assessed in the NOAA Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts initialized daily for 1999–2010. The analysis focuses on MJO indices taken as the principal components of the two leading EOFs of combined 15°S–15°N average of 200-hPa zonal wind, 850-hPa zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The CFSv2 has useful MJO prediction skill out to 20 days at which the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) drops to 0.5 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) increases to the level of the prediction with climatology. The prediction skill also shows a seasonal variation with the lowest ACC during the boreal summer and highest ACC during boreal winter. The prediction skills are evaluated according to the target as well as initial phases. Within the lead time of 10 days the ACC is generally greater than 0.8 and RMSE is less than 1 for all initial and target phases. At longer lead time, the model shows lower skills for predicting enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and from the eastern Pacific to western Indian Ocean. The prediction skills are relatively higher for target phases when enhanced convection is in the central Indian Ocean and the central Pacific. While the MJO prediction skills are improved in CFSv2 compared to its previous version, systematic errors still exist in the CFSv2 in the maintenance and propagation of the MJO including (1) the MJO amplitude in the CFSv2 drops dramatically at the beginning of the prediction and remains weaker than the observed during the target period and (2) the propagation in the CFSv2 is too slow. Reducing these errors will be necessary for further improvement of the MJO prediction.     

The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region

Recent studies have shown that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) impacts the leading modes of intraseasonal variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics, providing a possible source of predictive skill over North America at intraseasonal timescales. We find that a k-means cluster analysis of mid-level geopotential height anomalies over the North American region identifies several wintertime cluster patterns whose probabilities are strongly modulated during and after MJO events, particularly during certain phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a simple new optimization method for determining the number of clusters, k, and show that it results in a set of clusters which are robust to changes in the domain or time period examined. Several of the resulting cluster patterns resemble linear combinations of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, but show even stronger responses to the MJO and ENSO than clusters based on the AO and PNA alone. A cluster resembling the positive (negative) PNA has elevated probabilities approximately 8–14 days following phase 6 (phase 3) of the MJO, while a negative AO-like cluster has elevated probabilities 10–20 days following phase 7 of the MJO. The observed relationships are relatively well reproduced in the 11-year daily reforecast dataset from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). This study statistically links MJO activity in the tropics to common intraseasonal circulation anomalies over the North American sector, establishing a framework that may be useful for improving extended range forecasts over this region.     

Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India

The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler?CHendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly patterns were very similar to that during Phase 1 and 2 except for above normal convective anomalies over equatorial Indian Ocean. A general decrease in the rainfall was also observed over most parts of the country. The associated dry conditions extended up to northwest Pacific. Thus the impact of the MJO on the monsoon was not limited to the Indian region. The impact was rather felt over larger spatial scale extending up to Pacific. This study also revealed that the onset of break and active events over India and the duration of these events are strongly related to the Phase and strength of the MJO. The break events were relatively better associated with the strong MJO Phases than the active events. About 83% of the break events were found to be set in during the Phases 7, 8, 1 and 2 of MJO with maximum during Phase 1 (40%). On the other hand, about 70% of the active events were set in during the MJO Phases of 3 to 6 with maximum during Phase 4 (21%). The results of this study indicate an opportunity for using the real time information and skillful prediction of MJO Phases for the prediction of break and active conditions which are very crucial for agriculture decisions.     

An evaluation of the surface radiation budget over North America for a suite of regional climate models against surface station observations

Components of the surface radiation budget (SRB) [incoming shortwave radiation (ISR) and downwelling longwave radiation (DLR)] and cloud cover are assessed for three regional climate models (RCM) forced by analysed boundary conditions, over North America. We present a comparison of the mean seasonal and diurnal cycles of surface radiation between the three RCMs, and surface observations. This aids in identifying in what type of sky situation simulated surface radiation budget errors arise. We present results for total-sky conditions as well as overcast and clear-sky conditions separately. Through the analysis of normalised frequency distributions we show the impact of varying cloud cover on the simulated and observed surface radiation budget, from which we derive observed and model estimates of surface cloud radiative forcing. Surface observations are from the NOAA SURFRAD network. For all models DLR all-sky biases are significantly influenced by cloud-free radiation, cloud emissivity and cloud cover errors. Simulated cloud-free DLR exhibits a systematic negative bias during cold, dry conditions, probably due to a combination of omission of trace gas contributions to the DLR and a poor treatment of the water vapor continuum at low water vapor concentrations. Overall, models overestimate ISR all-sky in summer, which is primarily linked to an underestimate of cloud cover. Cloud-free ISR is relatively well simulated by all RCMs. We show that cloud cover and cloud-free ISR biases can often compensate to result in an accurate total-sky ISR, emphasizing the need to evaluate the individual components making up the total simulated SRB.     

Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air�Csea coupling in a regional coupled model

Intraseasonal variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool in summer is studied, using a regional ocean?Catmosphere model, a linear baroclinic model (LBM), and satellite observations. The atmospheric component of the model is forced by lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data. The aim is to quantify the importance to atmospheric deep convection of local air?Csea coupling. In particular, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on surface heat fluxes is examined. Intraseasonal (20?C90?day) east Pacific warm-pool zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability in the regional coupled model are correlated at 0.8 and 0.6 with observations, respectively, significant at the 99% confidence level. The strength of the intraseasonal variability in the coupled model, as measured by the variance of outgoing longwave radiation, is close in magnitude to that observed, but with a maximum located about 10° further west. East Pacific warm pool intraseasonal convection and winds agree in phase with those from observations, suggesting that remote forcing at the boundaries associated with the Madden?CJulian oscillation determines the phase of intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific warm pool. When the ocean model component is replaced by weekly reanalysis SST in an atmosphere-only experiment, there is a slight improvement in the location of the highest OLR variance. Further sensitivity experiments with the regional atmosphere-only model in which intraseasonal SST variability is removed indicate that convective variability has only a weak dependence on the SST variability, but a stronger dependence on the climatological mean SST distribution. A scaling analysis confirms that wind speed anomalies give a much larger contribution to the intraseasonal evaporation signal than SST anomalies, in both model and observations. A LBM is used to show that local feedbacks would serve to amplify intraseasonal convection and the large-scale circulation. Further, Hovm?ller diagrams reveal that whereas a significant dynamic intraseasonal signal enters the model domain from the west, the strong deep convection mostly arises within the domain. Taken together, the regional and linear model results suggest that in this region remote forcing and local convection?Ccirculation feedbacks are both important to the intraseasonal variability, but ocean?Catmosphere coupling has only a small effect. Possible mechanisms of remote forcing are discussed.     

Intraseasonal modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific: a case study

The temporal clustering of the western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis and its modulation by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the 1991 summer were examined based on the tropical cyclone best track, outgoing longwave radiation, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. The wavelet analysis shows that convective activities around the monsoon trough in the western North Pacific possessed a distinct MJO with a period of 20–60 days. Two or more tropical cyclones were observed to form successively during each active phase of the MJO, and tropical cyclones tended to generate around the southeastern part of the maximum vorticity of the low-frequency cyclonic circulation during the developing and peak stages of the active MJO phase. But tropical cyclogenesis scarcely occurred during inactive MJO phases. Thus the MJO was a major agent in modulating repeated development of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the 1991 summer. The MJO in circulation was characterized by a huge anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) in the lower troposphere existing alternately over the western North Pacific, leading to an enhanced (weakened) monsoon trough. An examination of the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity associated with the zonal flow indicates that the zonal flow in the monsoon trough region satisfied the necessary conditions for barotropic instability, with both zonal flow and the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity varying on the similar MJO timescale. The intraseasonal oscillation of such an unstable zonal flow might thus be an important mechanism for temporal clustering of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. The barotropic conversion could provide a major energy source for the formation and growth of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during active MJO phases, with the eddy kinetic energy generation being dominated by both terms of eddies interacting with zonal and meridional gradients of the basic zonal flow.     

Low and high frequency Madden–Julian oscillations in austral summer: interannual variations

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main component of intraseasonal variability of the tropical convection, with clear climatic impacts at an almost-global scale. Based on satellite observations, it is shown that there are two types of austral-summer MJO events (broadly defined as 30–120 days convective variability with eastward propagation of about 5 m/s). Equatorial MJO events have a period of 30–50 days and tend to be symmetric about the equator, whereas MJO events centered near 8°S tend to have a longer period of 55–100 days. The lower-frequency variability is associated with a strong upper-ocean response, having a clear signature in both sea surface temperature and its diurnal cycle. These two MJO types have different interannual variations, and are modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Following a negative IOD event, the lower-frequency southern MJO variability increases, while the higher-frequency equatorial MJO strongly diminishes. We propose two possible explanations for this change in properties of the MJO. One possibility is that changes in the background atmospheric circulation after an IOD favour the development of the low-frequency MJO. The other possibility is that the shallower thermocline ridge and mixed layer depth, by enhancing SST intraseasonal variability and thus ocean–atmosphere coupling in the southwest Indian Ocean (the breeding ground of southern MJO onset), favour the lower-frequency southern MJO variability.     

Determination of Intraseasonal Variation of Precipitation Microphysics in the Southern Indian Ocean from Joss–Waldvogel Disdrometer Observation during the CINDY Field Campaign

To date, the intraseasonal variation of raindrop size distribution(DSD) in response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) has been examined only over the Indonesian Maritime Continent, particularly in Sumatra. This paper presents the intraseasonal variation of DSD over the Indian Ocean during the Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011(CINDY 2011) field campaign. The DSDs determined using a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer,which was installed on the roof of the anti-rolling system of the R/V Mirai during stationary observation(25 September to 30 November 2011) at(8°S, 80.5°E), were analyzed. The vertical structure of precipitation was revealed by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar(version 7) data. While the general features of vertical structures of precipitation observed during the CINDY and Sumatra observation are similar, the intraseasonal variation of the DSD in response to the MJO at each location is slightly different. The DSDs during the active phase of the MJO are slightly broader than those during the inactive phase, which is indicated by a larger mass-weighted mean diameter value. Furthermore, the radar reflectivity during the active MJO phase is greater than that during the inactive phase at the same rainfall rate. The microphysical processes that generate large-sized drops over the ocean appear to be more dominant during the active MJO phase, in contrast to the observations made on land(Sumatra). This finding is consistent with the characteristics of radar reflectivity below the freezing level, storm height, bright band height, cloud effective radius, and aerosol optical depth.