邢云路《戊申立春考证》解析

根据明末邢云路所撰《戊申立春考证》,通过历法推步结果与实测数据的比验,详细考察了邢氏确定明万历三十六年(1608年)立春节气时刻的推演过程.分析了邢氏观测误差约2°的原因.完整给出依《授时历》和《大统历》推步该年的气朔结果,两者仅立春异日.且邢氏实测所得立春时刻=14.912333 d和年长=365.2421 90 d与《授时历》的符合率远优于《大统历》.古代的节气测算方法并不精确,为褒《授时历》贬《大统历》,邢氏有隐匿数据和修改数据之嫌,但实测年长史上最佳亦不排除巧合.给出邢氏为使历法推步结果与实测密合可能所做的数据调整方案,包括历数及观测数据的修改.     

明嘉靖六年《大统历》历书的气朔推步精度

历书是历法的民用本.考察了明嘉靖六年(1527年)<大统历>历书,根据历书所颁朔日和节气时刻,以及先期恢复的<授时历>和<大统历>推步术,并利用现代天文历算结果,可考校得出:(1)历书所载朔日和节气日期、时刻确由<大统历>推得;(2)<大统历>与<授时历>推步结果存在差异,推朔平均差33.35 min或34.93 min,推气平均差86.40 min,且两者均有差1日现象;(3)<大统历>与现代推算合朔时刻的平均误差为24.50 min或44.03 min,与现代推算节气时刻的差平均为1.25 d,若扣除太阳中心差则节气推步的误差将减少到86.40 min.     

授时大统历法五星推步的精度研究

用元明授时大统历步五星术和现代天文计算方法分别计算大明嘉靖十年(1531)五星每日夜半位置.利用比较法,对两种计算方法得到的五星会合周期、逆行段和合冲(或上下合)角速度进行比较,通过行星平运动和实运动的比较,分析研究授时大统历步五星精度,给出定量分析结果,探讨了授时大统历步五星误差原因.     

中国古历定朔推步综述

“朔”简言之表日月黄经相等，先民对其认识经历了一个从平朔到定朔的过程，通过研究古历，文中分析并归纳了不同时期中国古历日制度的基本元素之一－朔的两种推步方法：“积年法”和“《授时历》法”，其中包括平朔，日躔，月离，及定朔的推步方法等；得出了由各历的基本历数直接推出的中国古历定朔计算的一般公式，同时亦给出了《授时历》的推朔法和部分算例。     

《授时历》预报2012年日食

元代郭守敬等1280年编制的《授时历》是中国本土科学家研制的最后一部历法,具有极高的精度。采用其仍可预报2012年5月21日发生的日食,其预报北京地区的见食情况时食甚时刻误差4 min,食分误差为0.04。给出了《授时历》推步的1990～2050年北京的见食情况及精度,其中食甚时刻的标准偏差为103.04 min,食分的标准偏差则不低于0.33。通过考察1280～2050年间186个日食计算结果,可得出《授时历》自行用以来推步日食的误差,考虑到存在错报(不可见)和漏报因素的影响,其食甚时刻和食分的标准偏差分别不低于50.65 min和0.19;同时指出,随着行用时间的延长其推时误差也逐步放大。     

《授时历》五星推步的精度研究

着重考察了《授时历》的步五星术,考校、复原了其推步方法.(1)推步了1299年木星历,并与已有研究进行比对,从而确认恢复方法的正确性.(2)得出《授时历》在1280～1650年间推步五星黄经的精度,木星、火星、土星、金星和水星的误差的绝对值平均分别为0.49°、1.91°、0.70°、2.82°和5.01°,木星、土星的精度较高.(3)指出将现代天文方法获取的《授时历》五星参数(周率、历率、度率、合应及历应)精确值代入《授时历》推步模型,木星、土星的推步精度并未提高,误差分别为1.83°和1.21°,而水星、金星和火星的误差却大幅加大,结果分别为30.04°、54.86°和10.82°.说明某些重要参数的修正并不能改善推步结果.     

中国古代太阳中天观测及二至点测算精度

研究了元代《授时历议))所保存的天象观测和推步资料，得出：(1)在AD1277—1280年问所作的98次太阳中天观测的时刻及地平高度的绝对值平均误差分别为2．64min和6．78′．(2)6部古历——《大衍历》、《宣明历》、《纪元历》、《统天历》、《重修大明历》和《授时历》推步BC522年前的3个冬至时刻的误差范围为0．97—3．51d；而AD435—1280年间的45个冬至时刻的绝对值平均误差则分别为9．35、10．42、5．54、2．97、5．68、3．36h．(3)古代确定的AD442—1280年间的16个二至时刻的绝对值平均误差为199．59min，其中元代的误差为27．89min．     

中国古历经朔数据的恢复及应用

中国元代的《授时历议》保存了44部古历的推朔参数及比验资料．借助古代朔望计算方法：1）恢复了诸历行用初年的天正经朔数值；2）修正了史载的错误数据．3）根据Meeus方法计算出经朔的理论值，并由此确定古历经朔的推步精度；4）尝试应用这些数据考察地球自转长期变化，得出日长变化为1．8ms／cy．     

中国古代历法中合朔时的太阳位置

分析了古代历法中推求合朔和朔日夜半时的太阳位置算法。这些历法可以分为三类,分别按日月为平运动,考虑了月亮的不均匀运动和考虑了日、月的不均匀运动来计算太阳位置。合朔等时刻的太阳位置在《皇极历》之前推求的一直是赤道位置,自此部历法开始推求的是黄道位置,这是一个重要的进步。古代历法日月运动不均匀的改正主要是考虑了由椭圆运动引起的中心差。在探讨太阳运动的不均匀改正时,主要讨论了《皇极历》、《大衍历》和《会元历》,宋代的《会元历》不论在总体上或细节上都大大超过了《皇极历》和《大衍历》。     

用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型

根据某类事件发生时太阳系主要运动天体的位置，通过对其历史资料的归算，尝试并设计出一种具有普适性的事件时间预测模型．以1900-1980年间全球所有8级及以上的99次地震为例，定义与天体特征位置(视黄经)相关的发震率，初步建立预测发震时刻的概率曲线．指出这可能成为研究地震预报问题的新途径．     

Détermination quantitative de l'effect de phase dans la mesure des longitudes sur Jupiter

We have quantitatively determined the phase exaggeration effect (Phillips effect) as a function of the planet's phase angle for the correction of the longitude of spots on the Jupiter disk. This was done on the basis of over 1000 visual observations of the longitude of permanent details of Jupiter's surface compared with photographic observations. We also propose the existence of a systematic error (+0°.6 zenographic) in our visual observations. As this error is probably caused by unidirectional motion of the detail over the planetary disk, we named it the “shift effect”.     

A Constant Elevation Search Method for Narrow Beam Radar to Capture Space Targets

Position prediction is the basis of guiding radar to seek, capture, and track space targets, although there’s a risk of insufficient accuracy for narrow beam radar due to the influence of orbit determination and propagation error. Since the along-track error is the main factor that affects the accuracy of position prediction, this paper proposed a Constant Elevation Search (CES) method for narrow beam radar, based on the idea of along-track error compensation, to seek and capture transit targets. With along-track error estimation, all possible positions on a specified elevation can be observed, thus the success rate of capturing transit targets will be improved. Simulation shows that when the position prediction method fails, the CES method still works.     

Lithium Abundances in 11 Solar-type Stars

We present determinations of fundamental parameters and lithium abundances in eleven solar-type stars through observations of the Li I λ6707.8Å. The correlations between the abundance of lithium and that of other elements (Ca, K and Fe) are also discussed. The analysis of our data indicates that the maximum lithium abundance decreases with decreasingT _eff, and also decreases with increasing age. The sun is just one of the stars with low lithium abundance. One of the sample stars shows a high lithium abundance of as much as 2.34 dex. The plot of lithium abundance versus [Ca/H] is similar to that versus [Fe/H]. Lithium seems depleted more quickly than potassium in the cool solar-type stars. The correlation between the lithium abundance and the other stellar characteristics, such as absolute visual magnitude, does not seem very strong. The large scatter present at each color cannot be uniquely attributed to different initial compositions or to pure age effect. Other complex mechanisms may exist to provide different amounts of lithium depletion for stars with properties similar to the sun.     

On the stability of the satellites of asteroid 87 Sylvia

The triple asteroidal system (87) Sylvia is composed of a 280-km primary and two small moonlets named Romulus and Remus ( Marchis et al. 2005b ). Sylvia is located in the main asteroid belt, with semi-major axis of about 3.49 au, eccentricity of 0.08 and 11° of orbital inclination. The satellites are in nearly equatorial circular orbits around the primary, with orbital radius of about 1360 km (Romulus) and 710 km (Remus). In this work, we study the stability of the satellites Romulus and Remus. In order to identify the effects and the contribution of each perturber, we performed numerical simulations considering a set of different systems. The results from the three-body problem, Sylvia–Romulus–Remus, show no significant variation of their orbital elements. However, the inclinations of the satellites present a long-period evolution with amplitude of about 20° when the Sun is included in the system. Such amplitude is amplified to more than 50° when Jupiter is included. These evolutions are very similar for both satellites. An analysis of these results shows that Romulus and Remus are librating in a secular resonance and their longitude of the nodes are locked to each other. Further simulations show that the amplitude of oscillation of the satellites' inclination can reach higher values depending on the initial values of their longitude of pericentre. In those cases, the satellites get caught in an evection resonance with Jupiter, their eccentricities grow and they eventually collide with Sylvia. However, the orbital evolutions of the satellites became completely stable when the oblateness of Sylvia is included in the simulations. The value of Sylvia's J ₂ is about 0.17, which is very high. However, even just 0.1 per cent of this value is enough to keep the satellite's orbital elements with no significant variation.