西太平洋暖池冰期旋回中的类ENSO式演化及其驱动机制

作为全球接受太阳辐射最多、表层海水温度最高的区域,西太平洋暖池区通过厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)和季风等过程影响着全球气候的变化。越来越多的沉积记录证明,在地质历史时期西太平洋暖池也存在类似于现代ENSO过程的“类ENSO式”变化。而目前类ENSO式变化与冰期—间冰期旋回之间的响应关系和驱动机制及其与东亚季风的关联仍存在争议。本文利用位于暖池核心区的B10岩心浮游有孔虫氧同位素、Mg/Ca(质量分数比)和黏土矿物参数重建了暖池区氧同位素8期以来的古气候记录,并结合已有的热带海表温度记录、中国石笋氧同位素和南大洋地区海表温度记录,研究了西太平洋暖池冰期旋回中类ENSO状态的演化规律及其与东亚季风的关系,并探讨了暖池区类ENSO演化的驱动机制。结果发现:冰期时,西太平洋暖池区温跃层变浅,赤道东、西太平洋温差减小,同时,东亚夏季风减弱,暖池区降水量相对减少,与现代El Niño时期气候态类似;间冰期时,西太平洋暖池区温跃层加深,赤道东、西太平洋温差增大,东亚冬夏季风增强,暖池区降水量相对增加,与现代La Niña时期气候态类似。频谱分析结果表明,西太平洋暖池区海表温度的变化具有偏心率周期(96 ka)。冰消期时,低纬度太阳辐射量的增加,增大了纬向上的SST梯度,并使得次表层海水储存了更多的热量,积累的热量会通过调节次表层环流向暖池区的热传输,最终调控赤道太平洋地区Walker环流强度和ENSO活动的长期变化。而冰期时,南大洋地区降温所引起的东南信风和大洋环流异常可能对类ENSO式起到调控的作用。     

西太平洋次表层海温异常与北赤道流异常海温西传

通过对热带太平洋上层XBT温度资料分析,探讨了对厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件发生起重要作用的西太平洋暖池区次表层海温变暖异常的变化规律,揭示了影响西太平洋暖池区次表层海温变暖异常的形成机制.分析表明:西太平洋暖池区的次表层海温异常变暖与赤道太平洋的北赤道流(10°N)的海温异常存在密切关系.在El Nino事件发生的前期,位于赤道中东太平洋的异常暖水沿北赤道流温跃层潜沉向西太平洋暖池区输送,在西太平洋暖池堆积并向赤道西太平洋扩展,当异常暖水达到一定强度,并在大气的强迫下,异常暖水沿温跃层东传至赤道中东太平洋并上浮于海面,最终导致El Nino事件的爆发.北赤道流的异常海温西传是导致西太平洋暖池区次表层海温异常的重要机制,是导致El Nino事件发生的关键.     

东太平洋暖池

利用1950-2002年间的海面温度(SST)资料,研究了东太平洋暖池的形态和热状态特征,并探讨了暖池变异与恩索(ENSO)的关系。结果表明,暖池形态和热状态均有明显的季节特征和年际变化,其年际变化与ENSO循环相联系;暖池热含量、面积和南界与ENSO有着十分密切的相关关系。合成分析结果显示,在厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件爆发的前一年,暖池热含量偏少,面积偏小,南界偏北,而在事件爆发后,暖池热含量增多,面积增大,南界南移;在拉尼娜(La Ni?a)事件期间,暖池热含量、面积和南界的演变趋势基本与El Nino事件期间的情况相反。东太平洋暖池的经向变异可能对ENSO暖(El Nino)、冷(La Nina)事件的发展有重要作用。     

辽宁本溪高分辨率石笋氧同位素记录的东亚夏季风“2.8 ka”事件

本研究利用辽宁本溪庙洞石笋MD12,通过230Th定年和高分辨率氧同位素分析,并集成庙洞另一支石笋MD11序列,重建了3.04~2.60 ka B.P.时期辽东地区夏季风(降水)变化历史。该石笋氧同位素序列记录了2.8 ka事件的详细过程,事件的核心阶段起止时间约为2.76~2.66 ka B.P.,中心点位于2.68 ka B.P.,稍微晚于西南石笋氧同位素记录(约2.71 ka B.P.),但是在事件的开始时间上,庙洞石笋氧同位素记录比西南石笋氧同位素记录晚了约100年。因此,庙洞石笋氧同位素记录与西南石笋氧同位素记录中显示的缓慢减弱-快速增强模式不同,2.8 ka事件在辽东石笋氧同位素记录中表现为快速减弱-突然增强的变化模式,与太阳活动代用指标一致变化,支持太阳活动是2.8 ka弱季风事件驱动因子的观点。庙洞石笋氧同位素快速响应太阳活动的变化特征,说明其动力学机制可能是太阳活动减弱导致北半球高纬度地区温度降低,然后通过大气"遥相关"作用影响东亚夏季风。     

东亚季风“2.8ka”事件高分辨率的石笋记录

据湖北省神农架永兴洞一支石笋的8个230Th年龄、648个δ18O数据,建立了晚全新世4.40～ 1.75ka B.P.时段平均分辨率为4a的东亚夏季风演化序列,其中在2.92～ 2.74ka B.P.期间,δ18O发生显著正偏,幅度达2.5‰,指示一个显著的弱季风事件(这里称之“2.8ka”事件).该事件以夏季风缓慢减弱开始,迅速增强结束,事件内部有两个次一级的振荡旋回(两峰三谷结构),在内部细节与转型特征上类似湖北和尚洞石笋δ18O记录的“8.2ka”事件,暗示发生在全新世这两个冷事件的驱动机制基本一致.这两个弱季风事件都发生在太阳活动明显减弱时期,并分别与北大西洋Bond 2和Bond 5冰漂碎屑事件同步,表明百年尺度的东亚季风环流的演化由太阳活动和北高纬气候共同驱动.     

我国低纬季风区晚冰期以来水文变化：南岭东部高分辨率湖沼沉积记录

南岭东部定南大湖盆地湖沼相沉积高分辨率记录揭示了16.0cal ka BP以来的水文变化过程。由于该盆地主要以降水补给为主,故其水文变化过程是该地区气候与环境变化的忠实反映。多气候代用指标揭示晚冰期以来的Oldest Dryas、Blling、Older Dryas、Allerd和Younger Dryas等短尺度气候快速变化事件。10.0～6.0cal ka BP期间,该地区降水最为丰沛,暗示了夏季风在该时期最强盛,但在约9.7～9.4cal ka BP和8.8～8.2calka BP前后出现过降水骤减事件;在6.0～3.0cal ka BP期间,研究区降水显著减少,夏季风势力明显减弱。大湖盆地全新世气候变化记录与我国低纬度区域近年来的研究记录具有很好的一致性,说明低纬地区全新世适宜期应在10.0～6.0cal ka BP期间。在全球气候变化对比上,大湖盆地降水减少时期大多对应于北大西洋深水流或温盐循环减弱时期,也对应于北大西洋浮冰砾高峰时期;早全新世(10.0～6.0cal ka BP)降水丰沛期对应于北大西洋深水流加强时期;表明北大西洋深水流变化所导致的高低纬地区热量差异与我国低纬季风区过去气候变化有某种遥相关。此外,大湖盆地晚冰期以来气候变化趋势与北半球夏季太阳辐射量变化趋势吻合。因此笔者认为东亚低纬季风区晚冰期以来气候变化机制与太阳辐射量变化、大洋温盐循环等有关。     

我国季风边缘区湖泊沉积记录的全新世亚洲夏季风衰退事件

亚洲夏季风是全球季风系统的重要组成部分,亚洲夏季风的变化对其控制区域自然生态系统的多样性和生态平衡,以及社会经济发展有重要的影响。本文选择位于现代亚洲夏季风边缘区对季风变化响应敏感的湖泊达连海为研究对象,基于陆生植物残体和全有机质的AMS14C定年建立了钻孔顶部24.6 m沉积物的年代框架,利用粒度指标重建了全新世研究区水文变化过程以及亚洲夏季风衰退事件序列。结果显示,沉积物中存在数层砂层,代表了湖泊低水位时期,进而指示了亚洲夏季风衰退事件。这些事件处在11.6~11.3 cal.ka B.P.、10.4~9.5 cal.ka B.P.、6.4~6.0 cal.ka B.P.、4.6~4.4 cal.ka B.P.、3.7~3.4 cal.ka B.P.、3.1~2.9 cal.ka B.P.以及2.0~0.9 cal.ka B.P.,可以发现中晚全新世以来亚洲夏季风衰退事件发生的频率显著增加。进一步与北半球高纬地区与低纬地区的气候突变事件记录对比显示,全新世百年-千年时间尺度上亚洲夏季风强度的变化与低纬ENSO活动存在密切的联系。     

台湾头社盆地湖沼相沉积孢粉记录的6.2~1.3 cal ka BP以来气候研究

头社盆地位于中国台湾省中部,东亚季风区的最前沿,对东亚季风的响应十分敏感,研究其中晚全新世以来古植被、重建古气候序列,探讨其气候与东亚夏季风的关系具有重要的科学意义。文章对头社盆地泥炭—湖泊沉积的AMS14C测年、体积磁化率测试的基础上,基于孢粉记录,重建晚全新世来植被变化,恢复古气候。结果表明全新世中晚期以来分六个阶段：6.2~6.0 cal ka BP,气候凉干,植被类型是亚热带常绿阔叶林;6.0~4.0 cal ka BP,气候转暖湿,植被类型为含较多热带成分的亚热带常绿阔叶林;4.0~2.2 cal ka BP,气候相对凉干,植被类型转为亚热带常绿阔叶林;2.2~1.9 cal ka BP,气候又变暖湿;1.9~1.7 cal ka BP,气候快速冷干事件,森林退化;1.7~1.3 cal ka BP,气候重转温暖湿润,植被类型为接近现代的沼泽草原。整体上6.2~2.2 cal ka BP的气候变化是由温暖湿润向温凉干燥转变的趋势,这是全新世中晚期以来的太阳辐射量减少所导致的,太阳辐射量的减少导致热带辐合南移,进而导致东亚夏季风减弱,而2.2 cal ka BP之后气候波动较大,可能是在东亚夏季风减弱的背景下,ENSO活动加强与人类活动的干扰下耦合的结果。     

早全新世季风演化的高分辨率石笋δ18O记录研究--以河南老母洞石笋为例

基于豫西老母洞LM2石笋8个高精度230Th年龄,449个氧碳同位素,建立了达十年际分辨率的8.2~10.9 ka B.P.亚洲季风变化的δ18O记录序列.老母洞石笋δ18O值最为偏负达-12.0‰,最偏正为-8.2‰,振幅达3.8‰.早全新世10.13~10.9 ka B.P.时段内,河南西部老母洞石笋和东石崖石笋,陕西九仙洞C996-2石笋δ18O曲线揭示该时段内季风稳定,而中国南方的衙门洞石笋、三宝洞石笋和极地冰芯GRIP记录揭示该时段季风逐渐增强;同时季风达到顶峰的时期也不相同,进一步说明中国南北方早全新世10.13~10.9 ka B.P.时段季风演变过程的差异,可能与中国南北方气候的响应机制有关.从早全新世平均分辨率10年的LM2石笋记录中识别出8.2 ka,9.5 ka,10.2 ka和10.9 ka显著弱季风事件,尤其是8.2 ka和9.5 ka事件.对比分析老母洞与已发表的高分辨率石笋δ18O记录发现:石笋所揭示的某些冷事件发生时间在亚洲季风区存在差异,主要表现在事件内部变化特征及趋势上.LM2石笋δ18O曲线并没有明显记录9.3 ka弱季风事件,而是在9.3~9.6 ka B.P.左右记录了一个弱季风事件,与DSY09(2009)、Y1、HS-4记录相似,表明在该时段内存在季风的减弱事件,但是氧同位素传输的复杂性,使其在南北方表现不同.此外,在LM2石笋δ18O的8.2 ka B.P.开始时段,氧同位素曲线阶段性下降,且变幅达3‰,与Zhang等研究万象洞石笋提出的“中国8 200阶段”吻合,表明中国北方地区的8.2 ka事件是阶段性的事件,而南方的石笋氧同位素记录揭示的8.2 ka事件并未表现出阶段性特征,其原因有待于更多北方高精度石笋记录来进一步研究.LM2石笋氧同位素记录进行功率谱分析发现:在短尺度上季风变化与太阳活动密切相关,这与近年来对早全新世极端气候变化研究的驱动机制是一致的,早全新世亚洲季风的演化与太阳活动变化引起的太阳辐射能量的变化和北半球高纬气候的变化状况有关.     

基于石笋记录的小冰期与“8.2 ka BP”事件的对比研究

全新世气候突变事件是全球变化研究的热点,但对其行为特征与动力学机制的认识仍存在不足。本文选取贵州董哥洞2支高分辨率、高精度定年的石笋（DX1和DA）δ18O记录,分析小冰期和“8.2 ka BP”事件期间亚洲夏季风强度变化的结构特征与其驱动机制。通过两个突变事件的精细对比,发现两者在持续时间、振荡幅度和转型特征等方面均有很好的相似性,尤其是均显示出“两谷一峰”的结构性特征。北高纬地区淡水注入导致大西洋经向翻转流（AMOC）的减弱可能是触发“8.2 ka BP”事件的重要驱动力,这暗示具有相似结构特征的小冰期弱季风事件可能也响应于AMOC机制。将小冰期时期石笋δ18O记录与指示AMOC变化的北大西洋放射性碳数据进行对比,发现两者具有相似的变化过程,这表明在早晚全新世不同气候背景条件下,AMOC仍能够通过影响南北半球温度梯度的变化而影响低纬热带辐合带位置的移动,进而调控千-百年尺度低纬季风区水文循环的时空变化。      

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.     

贵州石笋记录的中晚全新世东亚夏季风变化

研究全新世典型气候突变事件的内部结构及区域特征,有助于明晰季风气候突变事件的成因机制。通过对贵州七星洞石笋14个高精度²³⁰Th定年和779个氧同位素数据的分析,重建了过去6 380～2 700 yr B.P.时段平均分辨率达4.7年的东亚夏季风演化序列。该石笋δ¹⁸O值整体上呈逐渐偏正的特征,指示中晚全新世以来东亚夏季风持续变弱的趋势。叠加在此长期季风减弱变化趋势上,最为显著的百年尺度振荡主要发生在4 548～3 715 yr B.P.时段,对应于4.2 kyr B.P.事件。该记录与同区域董哥洞石笋δ¹⁸O记录一致,均显示在此事件内部并非持续干旱,而是具有两次显著的季风强降雨期。相似的季风强降雨期在我国北方气候记录中也有体现。在更大的空间尺度上,这种4.2 kyr B.P.事件的内部结构特征与澳洲—印度尼西亚(澳—印)季风区的石笋记录结构相对应,但呈显著的反相位耦合关系,证实了亚洲与澳—印季风间的动力学联系。此外,该事件结构与ENSO记录的耦合暗示了4.2 kyr B.P.事件的发生可能与热带太平洋密切相关。     

ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环

近几年的一系列分析研究表明，ENSO与异常东亚冬季风之间有相互影响，持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风通过引起赤道西太平洋地区的西（东）风异常对El Niño/La Niña的发生起着重要作用；赤道太平洋次表层海温异常（SOTA）的年际变化（循环）与ENSO发生有密切关系；ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池，暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东太平洋，便导致El Niño/La Niña的爆发；在暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道东传的同时，有负（正）SOTA沿10°N和10°S纬度带向西传播，从而构成SOTA的循环；热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风。进而可以认为：ENSO实质上是主要由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。     

Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalies induced by ENSO during the northern summer: A GCM study

Ensemble seasonal integrations are carried out with the COLA GCM, with a view to understand the dynamical connection between warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean and the upper level stationary wave anomalies seen during drought years over the Indian summer monsoon region. In addition, experiments with and without orography are performed in order to examine the role of the Himalayas in modulating the El Niño induced stationary wave anomalies over the summer monsoon region. The GCM simulations show a statistically significant weakening of the summer monsoon activity over India in response to the SST forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weakening of the summer monsoon appears to be largely related to modifications of the local Hadley and Walker cells over the summer monsoon region. In addition, it is seen that the anomalous ENSO divergent forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean can act as a potential source for Rossby wave dispersion. Here one finds the possibility of meridionally propagating Rossby waves, which emanate from the ENSO forcing region, to interact with the subtropical westerlies and generate anomalous highs and lows in the subtropics and extratropics. The quasi-stationary perturbations seen over west Asia, Pakistan and northwest India during drought years, seem to be generated by the above mechanism. An alternate mechanism that could be important for the persistence of the quasi-stationary perturbations seems to be based on the dynamic excitation of middle latitude normal modes which can extract energy from the zonally varying unstable basic flow. It is seen from the GCM simulations, that the Himalayan orography plays a crucial role in anchoring the El Niño induced extratropical westerly troughs far to the west in the high latitude belt. In the absence of orography it is seen that the ENSO induced extra-tropical cyclonic anomalies tend to intrude southward into the monsoon region thereby destroying the regional scale circulations completely. Another effect due to the Himalayas is to generate lee waves on the eastern side of the topographic barrier which encircle the globe in the subtropics and midlatitudes.     

Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation

There is a close relationship between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa). However, recent observations suggest a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship that may be linked to global warming. We report here an analysis of the ENSO-monsoon relationship within the framework of a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI-coupled general circulation model (GCM), MRI-CGCM2.2. An overall correlation between the June-July-August (JJA) Nino3.4 sea surface temperature and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is –0.39, with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with the modeled ENSO. The simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations, from –0.71 to +0.07, in moving 31-year windows. This modulation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship is associated with decadal variability of the climate system.     

Possible reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon strength during the late Holocene

Holocene climate change is characterized as generally cooling in high latitudes and drying in tropical and Asian summer monsoonal regions, following the gradual decrease in northern hemisphere summer insolation over the last 12,000 years. However, some recent high-resolution, well-dated monsoon reconstructions seem to suggest an abnormal increase in Asian summer monsoon strength during the late Holocene, against the generally weakening Holocene trend. Here, we synthesize marine and terrestrial moisture records from Asian monsoonal regions that span most of the Holocene period. Late Holocene strengthening of Asian summer monsoon identified from a wealth of the synthesized monsoon records appears to be a robust feature, which warrants further consideration of its possible causes. The possible reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon strength preceding insolation minima seems to have also occurred during previous interglacial periods, based on speleothem records. We further show a similar late Holocene reverse trend in tropical hydrological changes, suggesting that the Asian summer monsoon behavior might be internally linked to the movement of the average position of the ITCZ and ENSO variability during the late Holocene. On the other hand, we suggest that even though several Holocene temperature records indeed show a reverse trend in the late Holocene, the overall evidence for a link between the late Holocene reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon and global temperature changes is insufficient. The reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon during the late Holocene is difficult to be explained with the traditional boreal insolation-driven view. We suggest that this phenomenon might be linked to austral summer insolation changes and/or greenhouse gas increase. However, we caution that additional paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations are needed to systematically study the spatial pattern and understand underlying mechanism of the late Holocene reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon strength.     

三门峡地区末次盛冰期至全新世早期的古季风事件

通过三门峡地区小刘寺剖面黄土- 古土壤序列磁化率曲线和粗颗粒组分含量曲线的研究,发现它们分别指示的夏季风和冬季风变迁在末次冰消期向全新世转变时的新仙女木事件中显示不同的变化特征。夏季风的加强过程对应于冬季风的大幅度波动,气候为凉湿背景上的冷湿与暖湿振荡。冰后期的早期为全新世第一暧期。夏季风强盛对应于冬季风衰弱的湿暖气候,它由夏季风锋面降水的穿时性所决定,在华北地区为全新世适宜期。8 kaBP 前后为夏季风偏弱对应于冬季风偏强的干冷气候,是具有普遍意义的全新世第一冷期。这3 次古季风事件可与格陵兰冰芯记录进     

厄尔尼诺事件对太湖流域降水的影响

为了揭示1951~2016年厄尔尼诺事件影响下太湖流域夏季(6~8月)降水特征,分析了厄尔尼诺事件开始年与结束年的降水状况。结果表明:太湖流域降雨与厄尔尼诺事件存在一定的关系:(1)弱强度厄尔尼诺事件起始年的6月与6~8月、结束年的6月与7月降水均以正常、大旱与极旱为主;中等强度厄尔尼诺事件起始年的6月与6~8月以正常与大涝为主,结束年同时段以正常、偏旱与大旱为主;(超)强厄尔尼诺事件起始年6月以正常或大旱为主,8月以正常或大涝为主,结束年刚好相反。(2)(超)强厄尔尼诺起始年的夏季,西太平洋副热带高压面积偏小,位置偏东,而结束年的夏季,西伸脊点加强西伸,利于太湖流域降雨偏多。(3)(超)强厄尔尼诺起始年的全年编号台风以偏少为主,登陆台风正常略偏少,但事件的起始年夏季6~8月编号台风却以偏多为主,结束年秋季9~11月登陆台风以偏多为主;结束年6月降雨偏多,登陆台风向秋季集中,易造成流域持续洪涝,对防洪产生不利影响。     

Interannual variability of monsoons in Malaysia and its relationship with ENSO

Interannual variations of the monsoons have been studied utilising homogeneous rainfall records of 41 years (1951–1991) from Malaysia and upper air data of stations in Asia, Australia and Western Pacific. Sources of upper air data are U.S. Department of Commerce and Kuala Lumpur Northern Winter Monsoon Activity Centre. Extreme wet and dry years have been identified and the influence of ENSO on Malaysian annual rainfall has been discussed. Influence of ENSO on the performance of northern summer and winter monsoons has also been studied from Malaysian rainfall data. Further, regional circulation patterns associated with El Nino and La Nina years have also been identified. No linear trend has been found in the annual rainfall of 16 stations in Malaysia. Most El Nino years are associated with below median and La Nina years with above median rainfall at most stations in Malaysia. ENSO has greater influence over East Malaysia than peninsular Malaysia. Interannual variability of rainfall with reference to ENSO conditions has been discussed in details. Also, circulation features have been identified to foresee El Nino/La Nina events.     

Holocene evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon inferred from a lacustrine record of Lake Wuxu,south‐east Tibetan Plateau

A continuous sediment record since 12.3 cal ka bp from Lake Wuxu (south‐eastern Tibetan Plateau) was investigated in terms of the Holocene evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The molar C/N ratio and stable C isotope were used to identify the source of the organic matter as well as climate conditions. The evolution of Lake Wuxu was summarized wihtin two periods. During the first period (early to mid‐Holocene), the lake received increased fluvially transported materials, reflecting variation in the summer monsoon with solar insolation. The lake level declined and water residence time increased because of reduced river discharge during the second period (late Holocene) corresponding to a weakening of the summer monsoon. The organic material revealed a major contribution from lake primary productivity, which showed identical patterns with a high‐resolution isotope record from Dongge Cave, as well as total solar irradiance. Our record from Lake Wuxu indicates that the Holocene evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon has been driven by the solar forcing at decadal/centennial to millennial time scales. Furthermore, an abrupt decline in the monsoon was detected at around 4.0 cal ka bp , which is probably caused by an increased frequency of EI Nino‐Southern Oscillation events. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.