Indigenous Australians’ knowledge of weather and climate

Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living ‘on country’, many of these communities have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves, as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian population.     

Some dangers of ‘dangerous’ climate change

Abstract

The UNFCCC has set the objective of preventing ‘dangerous’ climate change. The concept of climate change being ‘dangerous’ has generally been interpreted to mean that there are thresholds below which the planet is ‘safe’ and above which it is in danger. This creates the fiction that danger can be averted, when that is largely a matter of perspective. Policies based on fictions can succeed if the major parties are willing to go along with them, but this is not the case at present. It is dangerous to try and motivate the public on the basis of a patent fiction, since that obscures policy-critical ignorance and may ultimately create more brittle political frameworks. An alternative to maintaining the fiction is to acknowledge at the outset the arbitrary and conditional nature of any specific choice or definition of what is ‘dangerous’ climate change and what is not. Although our choices are somewhat arbitrary, they can be informed by a range of analytical perspectives, and the decisions we reach have real import. In this setting, we need a way to provide order to (arbitrary) choices that draws on what is known, but still acknowledges the conditional nature of the choices. It is argued here that the aesthetic realm may be suited to this need.     

Sources of information for farmers’ adaptation practices in Canada’s Prairie agro-ecosystem

Successful adaptation assumes the availability of appropriate information for groups potentially impacted by climate change. This research examines information available to help farmers in the Canadian Prairies to adapt, with focus on information related to soil and water conservation practices, such as preserving wetlands and maintaining shelterbelts and groundcover, considered particularly important for this region. Results of 28 semi-structured interviews carried out with producers in two Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba, revealed that information regarding soil and water conservation practices comes from a variety of sources. These included industry, government, producer and conservation organizations, social sources of information and personal experience, and media. Producers were more open to new practices when they could learn them through observation, trials, and two-way dialogue. There appears to be a general lack of producer organization involvement, and dearth of government information, direction, and coordination for climate change adaptation. Information from government and producer organizations can be important for the co-production of knowledge that can lead to successful adaptation.     

Parametric model of the Earth’s radiation budget

Summary Proposition of the Earths radiation budget, based on properties of the absorption, reflection and scattering coefficients, is presented. In the model, the final fluxes of radiation are expressed directly by absorption properties of the atmospheres components. Consequently, total (i.e., with all feedback) greenhouse effect, forced by any component of the atmosphere, can be determined. Presented model is averaged and one dimensional, but it can be developed if it meets with acceptance.     

Public understandings of air pollution: the ‘localisation’ of environmental risk

Recent perspectives on public understandings of global environmental risk have emphasised the interpretation, judgement and ‘sense-making’ that takes place, modes of perception that are inextricably tied to aspects of ‘local’ context. In this paper we offer a current picture of the ways in which residents think about the problem of urban air pollution. To do this we utilise elements of a wider research project involving a survey and in-depth interviews with members of the public. In this way — and drawing upon the prior air pollution perception literature and recent work in the field of environmental and risk perception — we present a more analytical interpretation than has hitherto been approached. Conclusions are drawn which stress the localisation of people's understandings within the immediate physical, social and cultural landscape and also through a trust in personal experiences over any kind of information-based evidence. From this position, and with the development of implications for policy, we demonstrate the need to study public perceptions if the objectives of air quality, and more generally, environmental management are to be achieved.     

Numerical Simulation and Observational Analysis of the Bora of Pag’s Ribs

The severe bora case that lasted from 13 to 15 November 2004 has been selected for the analysis of the bora of Pag’s ribs, which occurs in the northern part of the eastern Adriatic coast over the Pag island area (Croatia). According to the measurements from automatic stations, the MM5 numerical model is successful in the 10-min mean wind speed prediction at 10-m height. The vertical analysis of the wind speed and potential temperature also gave satisfactory results. At the commencement of the bora the modelled wind had a magnitude of 20ms⁻¹ at 10-m height in the Pag island area, which sharply attenuated in the cross direction and to the open sea. In this way the model has proved successful in predicting the characteristics of the bora of Pag’s ribs. Potential vorticity (PV) at 600m has lower values within PV banners than during the developed bora. The consequence is a strong jet emanating from the nearest gap. The vertical cross-sections through the centre of the gap point out a permanent hydraulic-like flow. At the time of the bora of Pag’s ribs the highest modelled turbulent kinetic energy is found in the jump-like region above the inversion and within the boundary layer along the lower boundary, ranging from 6–8m² s⁻². It is concluded that the dissipation in the hydraulic jumps and the wave breaking regions are the reasons for PV generation.     

Estimation of global temperature trends: what’s important and what isn’t

In this essay we discuss the development of and estimation of uncertainties in the global surface temperature record. We briefly discuss the similarities in and differences between the records from the institutions that produce such series. We then consider the numerous issues that must be addressed to enable accurate estimates to be derived. We consider these in their order of importance with respect to the record: biases in the sea surface temperature data, exposure of land-based thermometers before about 1900, urbanization effects in some series, and, finally, the homogeneity of individual land-based records.     

Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers’ choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints.     

Peculiarities of distribution and transformation of water in the Keret’ River tidal estuary

Presented are the results of the study of the processes of interaction between the river and sea water in the estuary of the Keret’ River flowing into the White Sea. The studies were carried out using the georadar method which enables one to register the boundary between fresh and salt water with the high spatial and temporal resolution. The use of this method helped to determine the boundaries of the area of distribution of fresh water in the estuary during different phases of the tidal cycle and to reveal the typical fluctuations of the boundary between fresh and salt water manifested at different values of river runoff and weather conditions.     

Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions

Brazil’s economic development has been underpinned by a diverse and – in a global comparison – unusual set of energy carriers, notably hydroelectricity and ethanol from sugar cane. Its energy mix makes Brazil one of the least energy-related carbon-intensive economies worldwide. Given that the country is fast becoming one of the world’s economic powerhouses, decision-makers need to understand the drivers underlying past and current carbon dioxide emissions trends. We therefore investigate a) which key long-term drivers have led to Brazil’s unique emissions profile, and b) the implications of these drivers for Brazil’s national policies. We show that Brazil’s emissions are growing mainly due to increasing individual standards of living, exports and population size, and that this growth is so far unchallenged by technological and structural improvements toward lower emissions intensities and more efficient production structures. As these trends are likely to continue amidst growing international pressure on key economies to reduce their carbon emissions, a decoupling of drivers from emissions is needed to simultaneously meet development and environmental goals.     

Growth and Decay of an Extra-Tropical Cyclone’s PV-Tower

Summary The surface low of a mature extra-tropical cyclone is often surmounted by a troposphere-spanning column of anomalously high potential vorticity (PV). In this study the growth and decay of such a PV-tower is traced for one major North Atlantic frontal-wave cyclone using the ECMWF analysis fields and adopting both Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks. A tower’s structure and composition relates intimately to the strength, scale and structure of the associated surface cyclone. It is shown that the tower comprised a vertical superposition of three elements: (?) a quasi-seclusion of stratospheric air extruded from an upper-level trough, (ℬ) a mid-tropospheric layer of intermingled air from diverse sources, but with a substantial component originating from the system’s cold front, and (?) a low-tropospheric layer of diabatically-induced PV that was linked to and originated from flow along a bent-back warm front. An examination of the tower’s growth and decay helps identify the factors influencing the onset and rapidity of the cyclogenesis. There was first an in-phase development of a surface baroclinic wave with the precursor of element (?), and also the emergence of element (ℬ) in the form of a low-level elongated band of PV aligned along the cold front. Thereafter a short period of rapid growth was marked by the appearance of a low-level band of PV along the warm front (element ?), and it co-spiraled with and beneath the upper-level stratospheric intrusion (element ?). Demise of the tower followed a loss of amplitude of its central portion and a loss of coherency aloft. Evidence of the modulating as opposed to the dominating influence of diabatic processes upon the cyclone’s structure and strength is derived from consideration of: the tower’s durable and ephemeral potential vorticity, the PV production along the warm front, and sets of model simulations of the event that selectively suppress diabatic PV production. Received July 9, 1999 Revised December 2, 1999     

Scientists’ framing of the ocean science–policy interface

Scientists’ ideas, beliefs, and discourses form the frames that shape their choices about which research to pursue, their approaches to collaboration and communicating results, and how they evaluate research outputs and outcomes. To achieve ocean sustainability, there are increasing calls for new levels of engagement and collaboration between scientists and policy-makers; scientists’ willingness to engage depends on their current and evolving frames. Here, I present results about how scientists involved in diverse fields of ocean research perceived their role as scientists working at or near the ocean science–policy interface and how this related to their perceptions regarding ocean research priorities. The survey of 2187 physical, ecological and social scientists from 94 countries showed that scientists held different perspectives about their appropriate level of engagement at the ocean science–policy interface and the relative primacy of science versus politics in formulating ocean policy. Six clusters of scientists varied in their frames; three clusters accounted for 94% of the sample. Of 67 research questions identified from 22 research prioritization and horizon scanning exercises, the top eight were shared among all three clusters, showing consistency in research priorities across scientists with different framings of their role at the science–policy interface. Five focused on the mechanisms and effects of global change on oceans, two focused on data collection and management for long-term ocean monitoring, and one focused on the links between biodiversity and ecological function at different scales. The results from this survey demonstrated that scientists’ framings of the role of ocean science at the science–policy interface can be quantified in surveys, that framing varies among scientists, and that research priorities vary according to the framings.     

Adaptation of California’s electricity sector to climate change

Climate change is likely to pose considerable new challenges to California’s electricity sector. This paper primarily focuses on the adaptation challenges of an important component of the energy arena: electricity demand in the residential and commercial sectors and electricity supply. The primary challenge to California’s electricity sector will likely be the increase in demand for air conditioning as a result of rising temperatures. In addition, renewable energy sources, which are an increasing share of the electricity portfolio, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Many of the key players have been actively considering the implications of climate change. Because electricity generation accounts for nearly 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, this sector has been a target of the state’s efforts to reduce emissions. Fortunately, many of the same tools can simultaneously improve the sector’s resilience to a changing climate. Demand management strategies and supply diversification are both important strategies. Local governments can play a central role in encouraging the adoption of more energy efficient building codes and the use of more renewable sources, such as solar energy. The positive steps taken by many local governments are encouraging. Steps to increase public awareness are an important, often missing component, however. Increases in research, development, and demonstration to improve system resiliency and develop new energy conservation tools are also needed.     

The development of children’s environmental attitude and behavior

Environmental attitude and behavior are at the roots of a sustainable future, yet little is known about their developmental origins in early childhood. This longitudinal study is the first to examine how children’s environmental attitude and behavior develop throughout childhood (ages 7 to 18, N = 118). Environmental attitude and behavior form around the age of 7, increase until the age of 10, level off until the age of 14, and then decline again. Environmental behavior develops from childhood to early adolescence and starts consolidating from age 10 onwards, whereas environmental attitude remains in flux at least through early adulthood.     

Comments on Zeng’s Paper “Variational Principle of Instability of Atmospheric Motions”

After my paper (Zeng, 1986b) was published and another (Zeng, 1989) was submitted to the journal, I found two papers written by Arnold (1966) and McIntyre et al. (1987) and received some reprints of Ripa's papers (1983; 1984; 1987; 1988) in the same field. I thank Drs. Mu Mu and Pedro Ripa very much for showing and sending me these interesting papers.     

An Efficient Accurate Direct Solution of Poisson’s Equation for Computation of Meteorological Parameters

Poisson's equation is solved numerically by two direct methods, viz. Block Cyclic Reduction (BCR) method and Fourier Method. Qualitative and quantitative comparison between the numerical solutions obtained by two methods indicates that BCR method is superior to Fourier method in terms of speed and accuracy. Therefore. BCR method is applied to solve (?)2(?)= ζ and (?)2X= D from observed vorticity and divergent values. Thereafter the rotational and divergent components of the horizontal monsoon wind in the lower troposphere are reconstructed and are com pared with the results obtained by Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) method as this indirect method is generally in more use for obtaining the streamfunction ((?)) and velocity potential (X) fields in NWP models. It is found that the results of BCR method are more reliable than SOR method.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Urals’ climate in the second half of the 20th century

Dynamics of the surface air temperature and amount of precipitation in the Polar, Northern, and Southern Urals in the 20th century is analyzed. Charts of the temperature distribution in the Urals for the period from 1961 to 2000, taking into account the relief, are plotted in the geographical informational system on the basis of data of instrumental measurements at meteorological stations with the use of the multiple regression analysis and raster modeling. The northeastern direction of the warming gradient and increase of falling precipitations in the period under review is established. Time series of anomalies of the average annual air temperature and amount of precipitation in the 20th century at three meteorological stations, situated in the Polar, Northern, and Southern Urals, are analyzed. The tendency of the growth of anomalies of the average annual temperature and total amount of precipitation is revealed.