给意大利共和国总统的公开信

两个星期前,意大利的拉奎拉检察官办公室起诉一些意大利高风险委员会的科学家和民防官员过失杀人。起诉依据是,这些人在Mw6．3级地震袭击拉奎拉城和周边地区之前6天召开的委员会会议后,没有向公众提供短期预警。     

2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉地震的前震及其预测意义

本文通过分析2009年1月1日～4月5日意大利及周边地区中小地震的时空分布特征发现,2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉地震是一次具有明显前震的中强地震.震前中小地震从频度和强度上在时间和空间向未来震中聚集的现象,为探索利用前震序列进行地震预测提供了较好的研究案例.     

云南大理MS6.4地震与意大利拉奎拉MW6.3地震序列的比较研究和危险性分析启示

云南大理M_S6.4地震和意大利拉奎拉（L'Aquila）M_W6.3地震都因未能准确做出危险性预测给人民生命财产造成重大损失。哪些工作可能向政府和公众说明“哪里可能发生地震”、“最大量级多大”、“未来发震趋势如何”等问题都值得深入思考。本文根据天气预报思路,将地震活动按丛集性做分区处理,从各区M-t序列、3级地震活动性、2年来地震能量释放升级趋势、G-R关系等几方面分析了这两次地震主震发生前的地震活动特征,对比分析了它们之间的相似性。认为这两次地震的相似性有以下几点:①震源深度都比较浅。云南大理M_S6.4地震震源深度8 km,意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震震源深度8.8 km;②b值相近。云南大理M_S6.4地震b=0.59,意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震b=0.61。G-R关系外推震级相近,均为M_GR6左右;③M-t图序列地震能量释放都呈升级趋势,地震活动也相似。平静打破后3级以上地震活跃,都出现震群现象,地震能量释放呈加速状态;④都属于前震-主震-余震型序列。意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震主震前最大前震为M_W5.2;云南大理M_S6.4地震主震前最大前震为M_S5.6,且前震震群特征明显。同时,本文讨论了按地震丛集性划分区域的合理性,认为按地震丛集性划分区域更容易把握区域地震活动的特点。这两次地震发生在不同区域,构造差异极大,属不同错动类型,用分区G-R关系和M-t序列分析,都得出较好的结果,再次说明了分区G-R关系和M-t序列分析对判断地震危险性的普适性特征,这为下一步产出“地震危险性云图”提供了依据。      

Alan l.Leshner给意大利总统的一封信

两个星期前, 意大利的拉奎拉检察官办公室起诉一些意大利高风险委员会的科学家和民防官员过失杀人. 起诉依据是, 这些人在MW6.3级地震袭击拉奎拉城和周边地区之前6天召开的委员会会议后, 没有向公众提供短期预警.     

意大利将地震学推上被告席——拉奎拉地震危险性评估的专家可能以过失杀人罪遭到控告

罗马 2009年4月6日袭击意大利中部拉奎拉城的灾难性大地震后续发生了奇怪的余震：对于未能在灾难前给公众发出预警,意大利的一些重量级地震学家们面临过失杀人罪的指控。这次控告激怒了全世界的专家们,他们指出地震不能预测,而且认为意大利政府忽视了强制执行能够减轻损失的建筑规范。     

云南大理M_S6.4地震与意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震序列的比较研究和危险性分析启示

云南大理M_S6.4地震和意大利拉奎拉(L'Aquila)M_W6.3地震都因未能准确做出危险性预测给人民生命财产造成重大损失。哪些工作可能向政府和公众说明"哪里可能发生地震"、"最大量级多大"、"未来发震趋势如何"等问题都值得深入思考。本文根据天气预报思路,将地震活动按丛集性做分区处理,从各区M-t序列、3级地震活动性、2年来地震能量释放升级趋势、G-R关系等几方面分析了这两次地震主震发生前的地震活动特征,对比分析了它们之间的相似性。认为这两次地震的相似性有以下几点:(1)震源深度都比较浅。云南大理M_S6.4地震震源深度8 km,意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震震源深度8.8 km;(2)b值相近。云南大理M_S6.4地震b=0.59,意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震b=0.61。G-R关系外推震级相近,均为MGR6左右;(3)M-t图序列地震能量释放都呈升级趋势,地震活动也相似。平静打破后3级以上地震活跃,都出现震群现象,地震能量释放呈加速状态;(4)都属于前震-主震-余震型序列。意大利拉奎拉M_W6.3地震主震前最大前震为M_W5.2;云南大理M_S6.4地震主震前最大前震为M_S5.6,且前震震群特征明显。同时,本文讨论了按地震丛集性划分区域的合理性,认为按地震丛集性划分区域更容易把握区域地震活动的特点。这两次地震发生在不同区域,构造差异极大,属不同错动类型,用分区G-R关系和M-t序列分析,都得出较好的结果,再次说明了分区G-R关系和M-t序列分析对判断地震危险性的普适性特征,这为下一步产出"地震危险性云图"提供了依据。     

意大利地震:批评者的逻辑值得商榷

针对意大利科学家在2009年4月意大利拉奎拉(L’Aquila)地震之前未能向当地居民发出适当警告从而导致过失杀人的指控[1]是不公正的。这一指控的核心基于这样一个事实,即地震以前当地居民所面临的危险。更确切地     

意大利地震:科学依随政治

John E Vidale的报道中指出[1](见本期第3页译文:"意大利地震:批评者的逻辑值得商榷"———编者注),有关2009年4月袭击拉奎拉的6.3级地震的过失杀人案是不公正的。但我们必须明白,针对意大利"重大     

2009年4月6日意大利拉奎拉(L′Aquila) MW6.3地震的破裂过程——视震源时间函数方法与直接波形反演方法比较

通过对视震源时间函数方法和直接波形反演方法在意大利拉奎拉（L′Aquila）M_W6.3地震破裂过程反演中的应用,分析比较了两种方法的特点.视震源时间函数结果表明,这次地震的破裂过程由两次子事件组成,其中第二次子事件的多普勒效应显著,表明破裂主要朝震中的东南方向传播.分别采用视震源时间函数方法和滑动角固定以及滑动角可变的直接波形反演方法对拉奎拉地震时空破裂过程进行反演所得到的结果一致表明：断层面上有两块滑动量集中的区域,分别位于震源处和沿走向（132°）方向距震源5~10 km处,最大滑动量分别约为1.2 m和1.0 m.破裂持续时间约为9.5 s.最大滑动速率达0.6~0.7 m/s,快速的破裂和上盘-下盘效应导致了拉奎拉城的严重破坏.     

对“关于“可操作性地震预报:有关‘为什么’和‘怎么办’的几点思考”的另一种见解”的答复

在民间传说中,“银弹”是杀死狼人和女巫的有效武器。在地震预测中,“银弹”就是“具有诊断价值的前兆”,即地震前观测到的以高概率表明即将来临地震事件的时间、地点和震级的信号。Crampin在其述评中声称,剪切波分裂（SWS）观测提供了一枚“银弹”。由此,他断言地震学能够将地震预测从我们最近在“见解”栏目中指定的低概率环境中解脱出来。     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) I. A. S. H.

Abstract

In the Southwestern intermountain and high plains areas, precipitation is seasonal, with the major part of the rainfall occurring in the summer. Most winter precipitation occurs as low-intensity rain or snow along slow-moving cold fronts. Most summer precipitation occurs as short-duration, high-intensity thunderstorms from purely convective buildup or from convective cells developing along a weak fast-moving cold front. Almost all runoff occurs from the summer convective storms.

Since runoff-producing precipitation is of primary interest at the Southwest Watershed Research Center, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, Arizona, the convective storms have been most thoroughly analyzed. Duration, intensity, areal extent, movement, character, and return frequencies for varying volumes and intensities of these convective storms are analyzed from records from dense networks of recording rain gages in four study areas in Arizona and New Mexico. The primary study areas are the 58-square-mile Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed at Tombstone, Arizona, and the 67-squaremile Alamogordo Creek Watershed near Santa Rosa, New Mexico. Three “record” storms of differing character occurring in 1960 and 1961 on Alamogordo Creek Watershed and one “record” storm in 1961 on the Wlanut Gulch Watershed are analyzed and compared in detail.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A new method is presented to generate stationary multi-site hydrological time series. The proposed method can handle flexible time-step length, and it can be applied to both continuous and intermittent input series. The algorithm is a departure from standard decomposition models and the Box-Jenkins approach. It relies instead on the recent advances in statistical science that deal with generation of correlated random variables with arbitrary statistical distribution functions. The proposed method has been tested on 11 historic weekly input series, of which the first seven contain flow data and the last four have precipitation data. The article contains an extensive review of the results.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilich, N., 2014. An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85–98.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) I. A. S. H.

SUMMARY

Basing their studies on an extended Reynolds principle of similarity, the authors present in this paper a thorough theoretical investigation of the turbulent flow in pipes.

Making appropriate assumptions regarding the distribution of the turbulent apparent viscosity over the entire pipe diameter, the well-known discharge formulas, i. e. the resistance laws, of Prandtl-V. Kármán for the hydraulically smooth and the hydraulically rough region, and of Colebrook for the transition region—the accuracy of these being well established by measurements—can be clearly shown to be correct.

Thus it is also possible to determine the velocity distribution in the region near the wall for the hydraulically smooth region and the transition region, as well as for the hydraulically rough region.

The concept, that the flow with a fully developed roughness effect begins when the laminar boundary layer at the wall disappears can be seen to be in close agreement with the asssumptions made. The limits which were established for the hydraulically rough region and the transition region correspond well with the curve plotted by PRANDTL and the boundary curve of Rouse.