Cosmogenic isotopes and their role in present-day solar paleoastrophysics

Present-day data on ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be concentration in natural archives have been statistically analyzed. It has been established that it is difficult to extract information about solar activity variations on long (several Myr and longer) and, especially, short (to 30 years) time scales using radiocarbon data. It has been indicated that beryllium series bear reliable information about short-term, secular, and, probably, 1000-year variations in solar activity. Moreover, ¹⁰Be concentration in polar ice can also be used to study the internal dynamics of solar activity. It has been concluded that beryllium data are more promising than radiocarbon ones from the viewpoint of solar paleoastrophysics.     

Are there connections between the Earth's magnetic field and climate?

Understanding climate change is an active topic of research. Much of the observed increase in global surface temperature over the past 150 years occurred prior to the 1940s and after the 1980s. The main causes invoked are solar variability, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas content or sulfur due to natural or anthropogenic action, or internal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. Magnetism has seldom been invoked, and evidence for connections between climate and magnetic field variations have received little attention. We review evidence for correlations which could suggest such (causal or non-causal) connections at various time scales (recent secular variation ∼ 10–100 yr, historical and archeomagnetic change ∼ 100–5000 yr, and excursions and reversals ∼ 10³–10⁶ yr), and attempt to suggest mechanisms. Evidence for correlations, which invoke Milankovic forcing in the core, either directly or through changes in ice distribution and moments of inertia of the Earth, is still tenuous. Correlation between decadal changes in amplitude of geomagnetic variations of external origin, solar irradiance and global temperature is stronger. It suggests that solar irradiance could have been a major forcing function of climate until the mid-1980s, when “anomalous” warming becomes apparent. The most intriguing feature may be the recently proposed archeomagnetic jerks, i.e. fairly abrupt (∼ 100 yr long) geomagnetic field variations found at irregular intervals over the past few millennia, using the archeological record from Europe to the Middle East. These seem to correlate with significant climatic events in the eastern North Atlantic region. A proposed mechanism involves variations in the geometry of the geomagnetic field (f.i. tilt of the dipole to lower latitudes), resulting in enhanced cosmic-ray induced nucleation of clouds. No forcing factor, be it changes in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere or changes in cosmic ray flux modulated by solar activity and geomagnetism, or possibly other factors, can at present be neglected or shown to be the overwhelming single driver of climate change in past centuries. Intensive data acquisition is required to further probe indications that the Earth's and Sun's magnetic fields may have significant bearing on climate change at certain time scales.     

Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and earth’s magnetic fields, and climate changes. 1. Time interval from the present to 10–12 ka ago (the Holocene Epoch)

Direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10–12ka ago (the Holocene Epoch), registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.), have been analyzed. The concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes and coming into the Earth archives, makes it possible to obtain valuable information about variations in a number of natural processes. The cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C in tree rings and ¹⁰Be in ice layers, as well as cosmic rays, are modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, and time variations in these concentrations gives information about past solar and geomagnetic activities. Since the characteristics of natural reservoirs with cosmogenic ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be vary with climate changes, the concentrations of these isotopes also inform about climate changes in the past. A performed analysis indicates that cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale.     

Solar Activity,Lightning and Climate

The physics of solar forcing of the climate and long term climate change is summarized, and the role of energetic charged particles (including cosmic rays) on cloud formation and their effect on climate is examined. It is considered that the cosmic ray-cloud cover hypothesis is not supported by presently available data and further investigations (during Forbush decreases and at other times) should be analyzed to further examine the hypothesis. Another player in climate is lightning through the production of NO_x; this greenhouse gas, water vapour in the troposphere (and stratosphere) and carbon dioxide influence the global temperature through different processes. The enhancement of aerosol concentrations and their distribution in the troposphere also affect the climate and may result in enhanced lightning activity. Finally, the roles of atmospheric conductivity on the electrical activity of thunderstorms and lightning discharges in relation to climate are discussed.     

Cosmic ray flux variations,modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields,and climate changes. Part 2: The time interval from ∼10000 to ∼100000 years ago

A joint analysis of paleodata on variations in cosmic ray fluxes, solar activity, geomagnetic field, and climate during the period from ～10000 to ～100000 years ago has been performed. Data on the time variations in the concentration of ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes, which are generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, were used to detect variations in solar activity and the geomagnetic dipole. Information about climate changes has been obtained mainly from variations in the concentration of stable isotopes in the natural archives. A performed analysis indicates that the variations in cosmic ray fluxes under the action of variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity are apparently one of the most effective natural factors of long-term climate changeability on a large time scale.     

The role of the stratosphere in climate change

A variety of climate perturbations have the potential to alter the thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics of the middle atmosphere, which may then affect tropospheric climate. Increased thermal emission from rising stratospheric CO₂ levels and scattering of solar radiation from stratospheric volcanic aerosols have a direct impact on surface temperatures, while variations in stratospheric water vapor and ozone can affect tropospheric temperatures. Observations and modeling experiments suggest that these perturbations, as well as solar irradiance variations operating through the stratosphere, may affect tropospheric dynamics, such as planetary wave amplitudes and Hadley cell intensity. In addition, climate changes will probably alter tropospheric/stratospheric exchange, with the potential for modifying trace gas distributions and climate forcing. These issues are reviewed in the light of the incorporation of middle atmosphere studies into IGBP.     

Modelling the regional climate and isotopic composition of Svalbard precipitation using REMOiso: a comparison with available GNIP and ice core data

Simulations of a regional (approx. 50 km resolution) circulation model REMO_iso with embedded stable water isotope module covering the period 1958‐2001 are compared with the two instrumental climate and four isotope series (δ¹⁸O) from western Svalbard. We examine the data from ice cores drilled on Svalbard ice caps in 1997 (Lomonosovfonna, 1250 m asl) and 2005 (Holtedahlfonna, 1150 m asl) and the GNIP series from Ny‐Ålesund and Isfjord Radio. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation data from Longyearbyen and Ny‐Ålesund are used to assess the skill of the model in reproducing the local climate. The model successfully captures the climate variations on the daily to multidecadal times scales although it tends to systematically underestimate the winter SAT. Analysis suggests that REMO_iso performs better at simulating isotope compositions of precipitation in the winter than summer. The simulated and measured Holtedahlfonna δ¹⁸O series agree reasonably well, whereas no significant correlation has been observed between the modelled and measured Lomonosovfonna ice core isotopic series. It is shown that sporadic nature as well as variability in the amount inherent in precipitation process potentially limits the accuracy of the past SAT reconstruction from the ice core data. This effect in the study area is, however, diminished by the role of other factors controlling δ¹⁸O in precipitation, most likely sea ice extent, which is directly related with the SAT anomalies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A possible long-term solar impact on air temperature in relation to solar motion

Summary Using the long-term relations between solar motion and solar activity, long-term relations between solar activity and air temperature variations on the Earth's surface have been studied. A long-term periodicity in the period range from 25 to 250 years, corresponding to the periodicity of solar motion and solar activity, has been found in four very long European surface air temperature series. The positions of the spectral peaks approximately obey the relation p_i=178.7/i, i=1, 2, ... . Similar long-term patterns of solar and geomagnetic activity and of global surface air temperature have been found in the years 1861 to 1990. The results indicate that the solar activity impact on the climate could be significant, and that the prolonged minimum of solar activity, predicted from solar motion for the next 2 – 3 decades, could decreace global air temperatures.     

Seasonal features in the response of the mesopause temperature and emission intensities to solar activity variations

The seasonal dependences of the response of the hydroxyl ((6–2) band) and molecular oxygen O₂(b ¹Σ _g ⁺ ) ((0–1) band) emission intensities, temperature, and density indicator in the region of the hydroxyl emission maximum (87 km) to solar activity have been obtained based on the spectral observations of the mesopause emissions at Zvenigorod observatory during 2000–2007. The ratio of the OH (7–3) and (9–4) band intensities, characterizing the behavior of the vibrational temperature, has been used as an indicator of density. It has been established that the response of the studied mesopause characteristics to solar activity is positive in all seasons. In winter the response is maximal in the intensities and temperature and is minimal in the density indicator. The main mechanisms by which solar activity affects the mesopause characteristics have been considered. The behavior of the internal gravity waves with periods of 0.33–7 h depending on solar activity has been studied. It has been noted that these waves become more active at a minimum of the 11-year solar cycle.     

Long-term solar cycles according to data on the cosmogenic beryllium concentration in ice of central Greenland

Data on the concentrations of the cosmogenic ¹⁰Be isotope and Na⁺ and Ca²⁺ ions, as well as on ice accumulation rates in central Greenland, obtained by the GISP2 collaboration were studied in a time interval spanning about 40 000 recent years. Joint analysis of the indicated glacial and chemical paleoseries demonstrated that in a period from 12 008 to 24 008 years ago, the ¹⁰Be flux variations were most free of influence of climate and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment. As a consequence, this time interval is most suitable for studying periodicities of purely solar nature. Statistical analysis of the ¹⁰Be flux data has revealed significant variations with periods of 500–800 years and 1300–1600 years in the time interval from 12 008 to 17 008 years ago. This evidence favors the existence of the appropriate cycles of solar activity in the mentioned epoch. Similar periodicities are also revealed in the time interval from 3288 to 8008 years ago.     

Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?

We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO₂, solar total irradiance (S_tot) and solar UV (S_UV). The response is largest in the S_UV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO₂ or S_tot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.     

Calculation of the solar activity effect on the production rate of cosmogenic radiocarbon in polar ice

The propagation of cosmic rays in the Earth??s atmosphere is simulated. Calculations of the omnidirectional differential flux of neutrons for different solar activity levels are illustrated. The solar activity effect on the production rate of cosmogenic radiocarbon by the nuclear-interacting and muon components of secondary cosmic radiation in polar ice is studied. It has been obtained that the ¹⁴C production rates in ice by the cosmic ray nuclear-interacting component are lower or higher than the average value by 30% during periods of solar activity maxima or minima, respectively. Calculations of the altitudinal dependence of the radiocarbon production rate in ice by the cosmic radiation components are illustrated.     

Long-term solar activity as a controlling factor for global warming in the 20th century

Such high-resolution indirect data on solar activity as the ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes have been considered. The long-term solar activity cyclicity during the last millennium with periods of approximately 90 and 210 years, which can be related to substantial climatic warming and cooling events in this millennium, has been established based on an analysis of these data. It has been indicated that long-term recent climate warming can result from the effect of the ∼90- and ∼210-year solar cycles on the climatic system, which is characterized by the nonlinear dynamics.     

Solar activity secular cycles

Long-term variations in solar activity secular cycles have been studied using a method for the expansion of reconstructed sunspot number series Sn(t) for 11400 years in terms of natural orthogonal functions. It has been established that three expansion components describe more than 98% of all Sn(t) variations. In this case, the contribution of the first expansion component is about 92%. The averaged form of the 88year secular cycle has been determined based on the form of the first expansion coordinate function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle have been revealed based on the time function conjugate to the first function. The quasi-periodicities modulating the secular cycle coincide with those observed in the Sn(t) series spectrum. A change in the secular cycle form and the time variations in this form are described by the second and third expansion components, the contributions of which are about 4 and 2%, respectively. The variations in the steepness of the secular cycle branches are more pronounced in the 200-year cycle, and the secular cycle amplitude varies more evidently in the 2300-year cycle.     

Climate variation since the Last Interglaciation recorded in the Guliya ice core

The climatic and environmental variations since the Last Interglaciation are reconstructed based on the study of the upper 268 m of the 309-m-long Guliya ice core. Five stages can be distinguished since the Last Interglaciation from the δ¹⁸O record in the Guliya ice core: Stage 1 (Deglaciation), Stage2 (the Last Glacial Maximum), Stage 3 (interstadial), Stage 4 (interstadial in the early glacial maximum) and Stage 5 (the Last Interglaciation). Stage 5 can be divided further into 5 substages; a, b, c, d, e. The δ¹⁸O record in the Guliya ice core indicates clearly the close correlation between the temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau and the solar activities. The study indicates that the solar activity is a main forcing to the climatic variation on the Tibetan Plateau. Through a comparison of the ice core record in Guliya with that in the Greenland and the Antarctic, it can be found that the variation of large temperature variation events in different parts of the world is generally the same, but the variation amplitude of temperature is different. Project supported by thc Climbing Program of the State Eighth Five-Year Plan and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Spectrum of climatic variations and their causal mechanisms

This paper surveys the history of the Earth's climate and deals with facts, techniques, and causes. A review of climatic history since the origin of the Earth demonstrates the changes and variability of our climate along different scales. These variations can probably be fully understood only when taking into account both external forcing and non-linear interactions between the components of the climatic system: atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. At least, as far as boundary conditions and forcing are concerned for the 10⁸ to 10⁹ yr time scale, atmospheric composition, solar evolution, and tectonism have to be considered, while variations of the Earth's orbital elements, and subsequently of the insolation, best explain the glacial-interglacial occurrences during the Quaternary Period. For shorter time scales, volcanic dust, solar activity, sea surface temperatures, and atmosphere-ocean autovariations have to be taken into account. Furthermore, the man-made effects have now to be considered: atmospheric loading of dust and air pollution particles, changes in surface albedo, and mainly the increasing rise of atmospheric CO₂ and other trace gases adding to a greenhouse effect.This man-made warming effect of future CO₂ increase will probably emerge as a clearly recognizable trend against the background of natural climatic fluctuations by the end of this century. This carbon dioxide induced super-interglacial will be superimposed on the expected natural long-term cooling trend of the ice age chronology.     

Reconstructions of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>С cosmogenic isotope content from natural archives after the last glacial termination

Data on the content of the ¹⁴C cosmogenic isotope in tree rings, which were obtained as a result of laboratory measurements, are often used when solar activity (SA) is reconstructed for previous epochs, in which direct observations are absent. However, these data contain information not only about SA variations but also about changes in the Earth climatic parameters, such as the global temperature and the CO₂ content in the Earth’s atmosphere. The effect of these variations on the ¹⁴C isotope content in different natural reservoirs after the last glacial termination to the middle of the Holocene is considered. The global temperature and the CO₂ content increased on this time interval. In this case the ¹⁴C absolute content in the atmosphere increased on this time interval, even though the ¹⁴С to ¹²С isotope concentration ratio (as described by the Δ¹⁴С parameter) decreased. These variations in the radiocarbon absolute content can be caused by its redistribution between natural reservoirs. It has been indicated that such a redistribution is possible only when the rate of carbon exchange between the ocean and atmosphere depends on temperature. The values of the corresponding temperature coefficient for the 17–10 ka BC time interval, which make it possible to describe the carbon redistribution between the ocean and atmosphere, have been obtained.     

Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity. A continuous δ¹⁸O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years, are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.     

Effects of molecular diffusion on trapped gas composition in polar ice cores

Enrichment of nitrogen gas has been found from gas analyses of ice cores retrieved from deep parts of Antarctica. Neither climate change nor gas loss through ice cracks explain the enrichment. In order to investigate the mechanism of the gas composition change, we develop a model of gas loss caused by molecular diffusion from clathrate hydrates toward the ice-core surface through ice crystal. We apply the model to interpret the data on the gas composition change in the Dome Fuji ice core during the storage for 3 years at 248 K. The mass transfer coefficients determined using the model are 1.4×10⁻⁹ and 4.3×10⁻⁹ m·s⁻¹ at 248 K for N₂ and O₂, respectively. The difference in the coefficient between N₂ and O₂ causes the change in the O₂/N₂ ratio of the trapped gas in the ice core during the storage. During the storage period of 1000 days at 248 K, the O₂/N₂ ratio changes from −9.9‰ to −20.5‰. The effect of the gas loss decreases as the storage temperature decreases. The results have important implications for the accurate reconstructions of the paleo-atmosphere from polar ice cores.     

Reconstructions of the heliospheric modulation potential and Wolf numbers based on the content of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>C isotope in tree rings during the Maunder and Spörer minimums

Data on variations in the content of the 14C cosmogenic isotope in tree rings and the Earth’s atmosphere (Δ¹⁴C) make it possible to study the behavior of solar activity (SA) in previous centuries and millenniums. The latter is related to the fact that SA temporal variations result in a change in the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) parameters and, as a consequence, in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, under the action of which the ¹⁴C isotope is produced in the Earth’s atmosphere. This makes it possible to study SA history based on data on the ¹⁴C isotope content in tree rings. However, in this case we have several difficulties related to climate change. Climate changes result in carbon redistribution between natural reservoirs, which is reflected in radiocarbon data and results in solar signal distortion. The effect of variations in the global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration on the reconstruction of the heliospheric modulation potential and Wolf numbers from the late 14th century to the early 19th century is considered. It has been shown that the radiocarbon data do not make it possible to conclude that SA during the Maunder minimum was extremely low as compared to SA during the Dalton minimum.