地震序列的有序样品聚类方法研究

在应用最优分割法对地震活动性分类研究的基础上引进线性模型，扩大最优分割法在地震活动性分类中的应用范围，并将聚类问题与建模问题有机地结合起来，以揭示地震活动的某种内在规律，这对于探索地震预报和地震的发生规律有一定实际意义。     

基于泊松分布的地震烈度发生概率模型

地震烈度发生概率和地震烈度超越概率都是衡量场地地震危险性的重要指标，地震烈度发生概率的计算民是人们比较关注的问题之定。本文根据目前工程地震和地震减灾研究中比较常用的Ｃｏｒｎｅｌｌ类地震活动性模型和反映地震时，空，强非均匀性的地震活动性模型，推导了场地地震烈度发生概率和计算表达式，通过计算实例，讨论了其与场地地震烈度极值概率（即超越概率差，通常被用来替代地震烈率发生概率）的差异，认为在一般情况下，两     

自然正交分量方法在地震地磁监测中的应用

对比分析了地震地磁监测中运用自然正交分量方法建立的我国地磁场长期变化模型与传统的磁场线性预测长期变化模型在地震地磁监测中的误差,发现NOC方法优于线性预测方法,应在地震地磁监测中予以推广应用.在NOC模型建立过程中,还发现NOC方法有助于提取可能与地震活动性相关的地磁场微弱能量的时间变化,但还有待于进一步的研究.     

模糊数学方法在中日两国地震预报研究中的应用

本文综述了中日两国地震工作者在把模糊数学方法用于地震预报研究方面所取得的一些初步成果,重点介绍了近两年来取得的某些最新成果,其中包括两国合作研究的成果。主要内容有:模糊数学方法在地震前兆分析研究中的应用,模糊数学方法在根据地震活动性预报地震方面的应用和模糊数学方法在地震综合预报研究中的应用。最后以表格的形式归纳了五类模糊数学方法在地震研究中的主要应用方向与当前的应用概况。     

渭河盆地地震活动性分区模糊综合评判

地震活动性分区综合评定是一项十分复杂的系统工程问题。本文选用模糊数学中模糊综合评判的理论与方法，建立了渭河盆地地震活动性分区模糊综合评定模型与评判指标及模糊综合评判计算模型。通过综合评定，分选出了与渭河盆地地震活动性相吻合的弱活动性区、中等活动性区、较强活动性区和强烈活动性区，其结果较好地反映出了本区地震活动的实际强弱程度。为该区的地震预报及开发建设之布局等提供了科学依据。     

b值和V4的统计分析及其不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响研究

以郯庐地震带为研究实例,基于线性最小二乘法回归原理,采用多种组合方案统计得到多个b值与V4组合,选取最佳组合方案,确定郯庐地震带最优b值和V4值;同时使用概率地震危险性分析方法计算每个组合方案不同超越概率水平下的基岩水平峰值加速度,探讨了地震活动性参数b值和V4的不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响程度和规律。本研究方法和结论可供地震活动性分析和地震危险性评价研究时参考,对地震区划和工程场地地震安全性评价均有重要意义。     

汾渭地震带及晋陕豫交界区的地震活动分期

本文应用“最优分割法”,分别对汾渭地震带及晋陕豫交界区的地震活动进行了分期,并对结果进行了讨论。     

地震活动性参数分类及其相关性初步研究

从各地震活动性参数的原始定义及其计算过程所反映出的物理本质出发，并为研究不同参数间相关性方便，将已有的30多种地震活动性参数分为五类：频度类、能量类、分布类、综合类和非线性类。在过去工作的基础上，进一步研究了同一类别中各参数间的相关性，取得了一些初步看法。     

地震活动性定量化研究的评述

简要回顾了地震活动性定量化研究的进程,概述了各综合定量指标参量的特点,介绍了地震活动度 S 及其在定量描述地震活动性中的某些应用成果,展望了 S 应用于地震监测预报中的可能性。     

全球地震活动性三要素的发展

依据美国地质调查局国家信息中心地震目录资料的分析，表明有可能划分出全球地震活动性的三个组成要素：１）地球各半球和一些巨大地区普遍具有的全球性要素（Ｔ要素）；２）北半球和南半球的镜像对称要素（Ｍ要素），其特点是南半球地地震活动性增强时，北半球的地震活动性减弱，反之亦然；３）反映地震活动性长期减弱或者增强的线性活动性要求（Ｌ要素）；４）对于最强的地震全球性要素（Ｔ）表现最为显著，在研究弱震为主的地震总     

Estimating non‐linear site response by single period approximation

Site effects characterize the filtering mechanisms within the soil sedimentary layers overlying bedrock. In regions of high seismicity such as California where strong motion records are relatively abundant, site coefficients can be developed by regression of recorded ground shaking parameters. In regions of low‐to‐moderate seismicity or of high seismicity but with a paucity of recorded strong motion data, such empirical models cannot be obtained in the same way. This study describes the theoretical development of a simple, rational manual procedure to calculate site coefficients, based on a single period approximation (SPA), and to construct displacement response spectra (RSD) for soil sites. The proposed simplified model, which takes into account the non‐linear behaviour of soil that is dependent on the level of shaking, impedance contrast at the soil–bedrock interface and the plasticity of soil material, has been verified by comparison with results obtained from non‐linear shear wave analyses and data recorded during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The proposed model is believed to be a convenient tool for calculating non‐linear site responses and constructing site‐specific response spectra, which has the potential of being incorporated into code provisions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of Seismicity in the Block-structure Model of Italy and its Surroundings

The numerical block-model of the lithosphere dynamics is used to simulate seismicity in Italy and its surroundings, based on the available structural and geodynamics information. The purpose of the study is to understand which are the tectonic processes that control the main features of the observed seismicity and the kinematics of the region. The influence of the rheology of the fault systems is studied as well. The model we use differs from other modeling approaches in that it simulates earthquakes and hence it possibly relates to seismicity and geodynamics. The model provides an effective capability to include the set of documented constraints supplied by widely available earthquake catalogs. This is done by means of the comparison of the GR relation, of the focal mechanisms and of the space distribution for observed and computed seismicity. The region is modeled as a system of perfectly rigid blocks, separated by infinitely thin fault planes, in viscoelastic interaction between themselves and with the underlying medium. The movement of the boundary blocks and of the underlying medium determines the motion of the blocks. The synthetic seismicity obtained with the defined block-model is similar to the observed one for the most seismically active areas. A linear frequency-magnitude (FM) relation (Gutenberg-Richter law) is obtained for synthetic earthquakes; the slope (b-value) of the FM plot appears larger for the synthetic seismicity than for the observed one. Nevertheless, the b-value is essentially larger in northern and central Italy than that in southern Italy, both in the model and in the observations. The analysis of the source mechanisms of the synthetic earthquakes shows a good agreement with the observations. In the model normal faulting is typical for the Apennines, the eastern edge of Sicily and the Calabrian arc, while reverse faulting takes place at the northwestern boundary of the Adriatic Sea, in the southern Alps and along the eastern edge of the Adria, along the Dinarides. The model correctly reproduces the extension zone along the Apennines and the contraction zone along the northwestern boundary of the Adriatic Sea; the counter-clockwise rotation of the Adria is mimed. The resulting movements of the blocks are in overall agreement with GPS (Global Positioning System) observations. The results of the modeling experiments suggest that the main features of dynamics and seismicity in the central Mediterranean region cannot be satisfactorily explained as a consequence of Africa and Eurasia convergence only; the passive subduction in the Calabrian arc and the different rheology of faults are essential as well.     

Correlation between plate age and layer separation of double seismic zones

Global seismicity catalogs are sufficient for characterizing double seismic zones (DSZs) in subducting slab and facilitate to estimate layer separation without inconsistent uncertainties as local catalogs. Previous studies have shown the correlation between DSZs layer separation and plate age while correlation for those younger than ~60 Ma is suspicious. The lacking of DSZs with layer separation less than 10 km further makes it difficult to precisely estimate such correlation. Thus, we incorporate eight DSZs data determined through local seismicity into globally-determined dataset and reexamine such correlation. The best fitting results show that both a linear model and a square root of plate age can mathematically fit the layer separation well. However, it is difficult to distinguish these two models when plate age is greater than ~20 Ma since their difference is less than 2 km. However, if extrapolation is possible, both models should provide physical information that DSZs will not form if there is no subducting lithosphere. As a result, the DSZs cannot be produced until the oceanic lithospheric age becomes greater than 0.9 Ma in the square root model while the linear model gives a misleading result. As such the square root model demonstrates the relationship physically better than the linear one, it still needs further test in the future with more available data, nevertheless, our study might also provide evidence for the suggestion that the plate age is a primary control factor of the DSZs geometry as well as the subducting process which disregards any local tectonic stresses.     

Scaling organization in the dynamics of blocks-and-faults systems

Some elements of the model of scaling organization of fracture tectonics (SOFT) are incorporated into the model of block structure dynamics (BSD). The resulting new model permits to obtain a power law relationship between earthquake energy and fault area with an exponent 3/2, as for observed seismicity. This is an important advantage of the new model in comparison with the BSD model, in which this dependence is generally linear.     

DRSCUSSION ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CIRCULAR STRUCTURE AND EARTHQUAKES

Seismologists are interested in the linear structure and neted tectonic framework and their relations to seismicity from the remote sensiug images, but do not pay enough attention to seismieity. The cir-     

Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake regions in China

With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan-Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole-Tuokexun, Ayinke-Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant αin model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present.     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震前的地震活动异常

应用“八五”地震攻关成果及相关软件，对1994年9月16日台湾海峡7．3级地震前震中周围中小地震活动性能量的计算分析表明，震前震中及邻区地震活动明显增强，累计频度和应变释放产生突变，从1991年起出现孕震空区，多项地震活动参量在时空方面中短期异常显著。     

Fluid-induced seismicity: Pressure diffusion and hydraulic fracturing

Borehole fluid injections are common for the development of hydrocarbon and geothermic reservoirs. Often they induce numerous microearthquakes. Spatio-temporal dynamics of such induced microseismic clouds can be used to characterize reservoirs. However, a fluid-induced seismicity can be caused by a wide range of processes. Here we show that linear pore pressure relaxation and a hydraulic fracturing are two asymptotic end members of a set of non-linear diffusional phenomena responsible for seismicity triggering. To account for the whole range of processes we propose a rather general non-linear diffusional equation describing the pore pressure evolution. This equation takes into account a possibly strong enhancement of the medium permeability. Both linear pore pressure relaxation and hydraulic fracturing can be obtained as special limiting cases of this equation. From this equation we derive the triggering front of fluid induced seismicity, which is valid in the general case of non-linear pore pressure diffusion. We demonstrate corresponding seismicity signatures on different case studies.     

基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型

基于有限元方法,参照细胞自动机模型,建立了一个地震活动演化的动力学模型.在这个模型中,根据边界条件和单元介质参数的分布,利用有限元方法确定各单元的应力增长速率.每个单元设定初始应力和摩擦因数,利用破裂准则可得到单元破裂所需时间.当单元破裂后,将破裂单元作为内部边界,利用有限元方法计算由于这个单元破裂对系统其他单元造成的应力调整.根据上述规则,建立一个由30×40个节点组成,在定常位移速率边界条件作用下的地震活动模型,探讨了区域应力场的动态演化、地震活动图像和各种参数变化对地震活动的影响.结果表明该模型在研究地震活动方面有一定优势并具有实用价值.     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震前的地震活动异常

应用“八五”地震攻关成果及相关软件,对１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡７．３级地震前震中周围中小地震活动性参量的计算和分析表明,震前震中及邻区地震活动明显增强,累计频度和应变释放发生突变,从１９９１年起出现孕震空区,多项地震活动参量的中短期时空异常显著。