基于动态平差方法的滇西地区长期重力变化研究

<正>选取滇西重力测网1986—2014年流动重力观测资料,及下关、丽江、昆明3个绝对重力基准点多年复测资料做基准控制,采用线性速率模型模拟观测过程中重力场的时变信息,建立了绝对重力基准点约束下的动态平差模型,获得了滇西地区统一时间基准和空间基准的长期重力变化空间分布,并结合地壳形变观测结果和全球陆地水模型,估算了测区内由地壳几何形变及水负荷引起的重力效应,分析了滇西地区长期重力变化空间分布特征。     

鲜水河断裂带的重力场变化特征

对鲜水河断裂带区域重力网10多年的观测资料进行了精细处理。在此基础上，构制出能展现异常变化特征的重力场空间分布图。分析认为：鲜水河断裂带和龙门山断裂对网区重力的时间变化有明显的控制作用；区域重力变化的空间分布存在较大的差异：东南段的变化大于西北段；尤其是康定一带，是现阶段地壳应力容易累积的危险地区。分析还表明，在巴塘、小金和丽江等地震前，重力场有明显的异常变化。     

滇西地区重力场动态变化计算

在滇西地区已用高精度拉柯斯特重力仪进行了２８期相对重力测量和多次绝对重力测量。利用这些资料进行了重力场动态变化计算,系统地讨论了空间和时间基准的确定、格值影响的计算和点位移动的归算等问题。针对丽江地震前后的重力变化给出了滇西测网判定重力变化的限值。     

基于变差函数的插值方法计算华北地区重力场变化

定点重复重力测量是获取区域重力场变化的主要手段之一, 重力场特征与地形起伏、 构造走向等因素相关。 以华北地区为例, 考虑区域内地形和构造的北东向分布规律, 从EGM2008重力模型中拟合各向异性变差函数参数, 利用变差函数网格化插值, 对华北地区2009—2013年期间重力场观测数据进行网格化重建, 获取华北地区重力场时空变化结果。 研究结果表明基于区域地形、 构造特征的各向异性变差函数插值方法, 获得的空间重力场变化在重力异常梯级带上更加明显, 重力变化与活动构造分布具有更好的一致性。 本文研究方法对于恢复区域时空重力场异常具有重要意义, 有助于提高应用重力资料划分潜在地震危险区空间位置的精度, 为华北地区震情研判和构建地震预报定量指标体系提供可靠的地球物理场数据。     

川滇地区重力场动态变化及其强震危险含义

基于川滇地区2011—2014年的重力复测资料,系统分析了区域重力场时-空动态变化及其与2012年云南彝良MS5.7、2013年四川芦山MS7.0、2014年云南鲁甸MS6.5和四川康定MS6.3地震发生的关系.结合GPS、水准观测成果和区域地质构造动力环境,进一步研究了区域重力场变化的时空分布特征及其机理,讨论了近期区域重力场动态变化的强震危险含义.结果表明:1重力变化与川滇地区断裂构造活动存在密切空间联系,重力变化较好地反映了伴随活动断层的物质迁移和构造变形引起的地表重力变化效应.2重力资料对测区内2012年以来发生的4次MS5.7以上强震均有较好反映,地震前震中区及其附近观测到明显的区域性重力异常及重力变化高梯度带,可能是地震孕育过程中观测到的重力前兆信息.3区域重力场动态演化大体反映了青藏高原物质东流的动态效应,龙门山断裂带地壳受挤压隆起、面压缩率和重力上升变化的特征最为显著.4重力场的空间分布及其随时间变化与地壳垂直与水平运动及地质构造活动等观测结果有一定的对应关系,强震易发生在重力变化四象限分布中心地带或正、负异常区过渡的高梯度带上,研究区的一些重力异常部位仍存在中-长期大震危险背景.     

基于欧拉反褶积方法估算华北地区重力变化的等效源参数

利用华北地区2009—2014年绝对重力与相对重力多期重复观测资料, 得到不同时空尺度的华北区域重力场动态变化图像。 采用欧拉反褶积方法, 通过对理论模型试算, 获得最优反演参数, 对引起华北地区重力场变化的场源深度和空间分布规律进行了反演计算和分析。 结果表明: 当构造指数为1时, 适合对流动重力场变化数据进行反演。 实际资料的反演结果在2009—2014年间的场源位置集中于河套断裂带。 本文研究方法可以用于重力场反演和以场求源的定量研究。 本工作为流动重力变化信号的反演和解释提供一条新思路, 也为构建地震重力预报指标体系提供了定量依据。     

宁夏地区重力场变化与2012年永宁MS4.6地震

利用宁夏地区2011—2013年期间多期重力观测资料,采用中国地震局推广的LG-ADJ程序对观测资料进行平差处理,给出地震前后3年的区域重力场变化和点值变化图像。结合构造活动分析,对2012永宁4.6级地震前后宁夏地区重力异常变化进行研究。认为：2012年永宁地震前,测区重力场出现较好的中期前兆性变化图像,临震前短期异常突增,重力场在空间和量值上均出现大幅的上升变化,重力点值震前趋势下降-转折上升-加速上升-发震的变化,是非常值得关注的前兆异常。     

2016年青海门源MS6.4地震前重力变化

利用青藏高原东北缘2011-2015年期间的流动重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场变化及其与2016年1月21日青海门源M_S6.4地震发生的关系,结合GNSS、水准观测成果和区域地质构造动力环境,进一步研究了区域重力场变化的时空分布特征及其机理.结果表明：（1）测区内重力场异常变化与祁连山断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映沿祁连山断裂带（段）在2011-2015年期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的构造活动或变形.（2）门源M_S6.4地震前,测区内先出现了较大空间范围的区域性重力异常,到临近发震前显示出相对闭锁的现象,且围绕震中区周围出现四象限分布特征的局部重力变化,地震发生在重力反向变化过程中,并出现显著的四象限分布特征的重力异常变化,其中,青海门源与甘肃天祝一带重力差异变化达100×10^-8m·s^-2以上.（3）区域重力场动态演化大体反映了青藏高原东北缘物质北东流的动态效应,门源震中附近区域地壳受挤压变形显著、面压缩率和重力剧烈变化的特征最为显著.（4）重力场的空间分布及其随时间变化与地壳垂直与水平运动及地质构造活动等观测结果有一定的对应关系,强震易发生在重力变化四象限分布中心地带或正、负异常区过渡的高梯度带上.     

广西北流—广东化州5.2级地震前粤桂琼地区重力变化特征

收集了粤桂琼地区4个台站的连续重力观测资料和雷琼地区的流动重力观测资料,研究了广西北流—广东化州5.2级地震前粤桂琼地区重力变化特征。其中连续重力观测资料的分析从重力扰动和重力M2波潮汐因子变化两个方面进行;流动重力观测资料的分析从重力场差分动态和累积动态变化两个方面进行。连续重力观测资料的研究表明震前粤桂琼地区连续重力观测资料无异常现象;雷琼地区流动重力观测资料的研究结果表明,广西北流—广东化州5.2级地震前,震中附近地区存在重力场变化异常,异常持续时间约2年,异常范围约100 km,异常量级约50x10~(-8)m·s~(-2),地震发生于重力场变化的高梯度带上。     

2016年射阳M_S 4.4地震前后重力场变化

利用江苏重力测网2014—2017年重力场观测资料,采用绝对重力控制与相对重力联测相结合的平差方法,获取2016年射阳M_S 4.4地震前后重力场变化图。根据射阳M_S 4.4地震前后射阳地区各测线重力段差变化特点,绘制重力场等值线并进行对比分析,结合相关机理,探讨重力场变化与该地震的内在联系。同震观测数据显示:射阳M_S 4.4地震发生在重力异常值高梯度带附近,发震时震中地区位于NS挤压正异常、EW张拉负异常状态,震后区域重力梯度变化量开始减小,是一种典型的重力异常调整现象。     

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring should be strengthened.     

GRAVITY VARIATION BEFORE AND AFTER THE MS5.4 EARTHQUAKE IN CANGWU IN 2016

Based on the mobile gravity observation data in 2014-2016 in Guangxi and its adjacent areas, this paper systematically analyzed the changes of regional gravity field and its relation to the M_S5.4 Cangwu, Guangxi earthquake on July 31, 2016, and combined with GPS observation data and seismic geological survey results, discussed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the changes of regional gravity field and its mechanism. The results show that:(1) Before and after the M_S5.4 Cangwu earthquake, the gravity anomaly changes near the earthquake area were closely related to the major faults in space, which reflects the crustal deformation and tectonic activities that caused the surface gravity change along the seismogenic fault in the period of 2014-2016; (2) The gravity changes near the epicenter before and after the M_S5.4 Cangwu earthquake showed an evolution process in which the positive gravity anomaly zone changed to the negative gravity anomaly zone, a gravity gradient belt appeared along NNE direction and the earthquake occurred in its reverse change process; (3) The epicenter of the M_S5.4 Cangwu earthquake located both near the gravity gradient belt and in the zero transition zone of the surface strain gradient and the edge of the high maximum shear strain rate area, the observational fact further proved that the dynamic image of gravitational field and deformation field have important instruction significance to the location prediction of strong earthquakes; (4) in recent years, the gravity dynamic change in northwestern Guangxi presented a four-quadrant distribution pattern, and there is the risk of generating earthquake of magnitude about 5 in the center of the quadrants.     

THE COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH OF RECENT GRAVITY AND CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

In this study, we systematically analyzed the relationship between regional gravity changes, 3D crustal deformation, regional tectonic environment and strong earthquakes based on the relative gravity measurements(2011-2014), GPS data and the background vertical deformation from the leveling measurements conducted from 1970 to 2011. Subsequently, we further characterized the temporal-spatial patterns and discussed the mechanism of regional gravity changes and the crustal deformation. The results can be summarized as follows:1)The regional gravity changes, the GPS-derived horizontal deformation and the vertical deformational obtained from leveling data showed a close spatial relationship:The gravity increased along with the direction of horizontal movement, and the gravity decreased with the crustal uplift and vice versa, which reflects the inherited characteristics of neotectonic activities. 2)The crustal deformation was closely related to the active faults. The contour lines of gravity changes and vertical deformation were generally along with the Qilian-Haiyuan Fault(the strike is NWW), and the crustal horizontal deformation showed left-lateral strike slip motion near the Qilian-Haiyuan Fault. 3)The strong earthquakes usually occur in the active faults where intensive gravity change and vertical and/or horizontal deformation occurred. The extrusion deformation, surface compression rate and gravity changes were obvious near the epicenter of 2016 Menyuan earthquake. The 2013 Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake occurred in the direction-turning area of intense gravity gradient zone and the transitional area of surface compression and vertical deformation. The first author of this paper has made a medium-term forecast before the Minxian and Menyuan earthquakes, especially the location of the earthquake. Based on the above understandings, we emphasized that:there are still possibilities of strong or huge earthquakes within medium-long term in the areas of crustal deformation anomalies in the study region.     

重复重力测量结果计算垂线偏差的时间变化

根据滇西和华北地震重力监测网28期和39期重力测量资料，利用Vening-Meinesz公式，分别计算了下关和北京两地垂线偏差的时间变化．结果表明:① 垂线偏差的时间变化幅度一般在0.1以内，年际变化幅度在0.02以内；② 重复重力测量方法可在0.01的可信度范围内确定垂线偏差的时间变化，对比计算结果表明这种方法是可行的；③ 不同地点和方向的垂线偏差变化既存在相同点也存在不同点，它们将有可能为区域性的地球物理事件和大范围或全球性动力学研究提供新的途径．      

CHARACTERISTICS OF FOCAL MECHANISMS AND STRESS FIELD OF YUNNAN AREA

Using the seismic waveform data recorded by regional seismic network of Yunnan and Sichuan and the method of CAP, we calculate and obtain the focal mechanism of 268 earthquakes with the magnitude of M_L≥4.0 occurring in Yunnan during Jan. 1999 to Aug. 2014; then, we analyze the types and the regional feature of the focal mechanism of earthquakes in Yunnan, on the basis of the focal mechanism of 109 earthquakes analyzed by Harvard University. Based on the data of the above focal mechanism solutions, we adopt the method of damped regional-scale stress inversion to calculate the best-fitting tectonic stress tensor of every grid in Yunnan; and adopt the method of maximum principal stress to calculate the direction of maximum horizontal principal stress in Yunnan. The result shows that: (1)the strike-slip type is the most principal type of the earthquake focus in the study area and the second is the normal faulting type; while, the reverse-fault type is relatively small. The spatial distribution of focal mechanism is obvious. This reflects that the dynamic source and acting force are different in different parts of the study area. (2)The direction of the stress field in Yunnan shows a certain spatial continuity. Maximum horizontal principal compressive stress is mainly clockwise from north to south and counterclockwise from the west to the east. The direction of stress field shows inhomogeneity in space. There exist two stress conversion zones respectively in EW and NS direction. The inversion result of stress field shows that the stress field in Yunnan is complex and the principal stress direction changes greatly; and there are obvious differences in different regions.     

COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF RECENT GRAVITY AND CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN NORTHWESTERN GUANGXI

Northwest Guangxi is located in the Youjiang fold belt and the Hunan-Guangxi fold belt of secondary structure unit of South China fold system. The South China fold was miogeosyncline in the early Paleozoic, the Caledonian fold returned and transformed into the standard platform, and the Indosinian movement ended the Marine sedimentary history, which laid the basic structural framework of this area. Since the neotectonic period, large areas have been uplifted intermittently in the region and Quaternary denudation and planation planes and some faulted basins have been developed. Affected by the strong uplift of Yunnan-Guizhou plateau, the topography of the region subsides from northwest to southeast, with strong terrain cutting and deep valley incision. Paleozoic carbonate rocks and Mesozoic clastic rocks are mainly exposed on the earth's surface, and its geomorphology is dominated by corrosion and erosion landforms. The dating results show that most of the structures in northwest Guangxi are middle Pleistocene active faults, and the movement mode is mainly stick-slip. According to the seismogeological research results of the eastern part of the Chinese mainland, the active faults of the middle Pleistocene have the structural conditions for generating earthquakes of about magnitude 6. In the northwest Guangxi, the crustal dynamic environment and geological structure are closely related to Sichuan and Yunnan regions. Under the situation that magnitude 6 earthquakes occurred successively in Sichuan and Yunnan region and magnitude 7 earthquakes are poised to happen, the risk of moderately strong earthquakes in the northwest Guangxi region cannot be ignored. Based on the analysis of deep structure and geophysical field characteristics, it is concluded that the Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang area in the northwestern Guangxi is not only the area with strong variation of the Moho surface isobath, but also the M_L3.0 seismic gap since September 2015, and the abnormal low b value area along the main fault. Regions with these deep structural features often have the conditions for moderately strong earthquakes. The paper systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution features and mechanism of regional gravitational field and horizontal crust movement and further studies and discusses the changes of regional gravitational field, crustal horizontal deformation and interaction between geologic structure and seismic activity based on 2014-2018 mobile gravity measurements and 2015-2017 GPS observation data in the northwestern Guangxi. The results show that:1)On July 15, 2017, a M_S4.0 earthquake in Nandan happened near the center of four quadrants of changes of gravity difference, and the center of abnormal area is located at the intersection of the Mulun-Donglang-Luolou Fault, the Hechi-Nandan Fault and the Hechi-Yizhou Fault. The dynamic graph of differential scale gravitational field reflects the gravity changes at the epicenter before and after the Nandan earthquake, which is a process of system evolution of "local gravity anomaly to abnormal four-quadrant distribution features → to earthquake occurring at the turning point of gravity gradient zone and the zero line to backward recovery variation after earthquake". Meanwhile, according to the interpretation of focal mechanism of the Nandan earthquake, seismogram and analysis of seismic survey results, the paper thinks that the four-quadrant distribution of positive and negative gravity, which is consistent with the effect of strike-slip type seismogenic fault before Nandan earthquake, demonstrates the existence of dextral strike-slip faulting; 2)The pattern of spatial distribution of gravitational field change in northwestern Guangxi is closely related to active fault. The isoline of cumulative gravity generally distributes along Nandan-Hechi Fault and Hechi-Yizhou Fault. The gravity on both sides of the fault zone is different greatly, and gradient zone has influences on a broad area; the spatial distribution of deformation field is generally featured by horizontal nonuniformity. Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang area is located at the high gradient zone of gravity changes and the horizontal deformation surface compressional transition zone, as well as near the intersection of Hechi-Yizhou Fault, Hechi-Nandan Fault and Du'an-Mashan Fault; 3)The geometric shape of gravitational field in northwestern Guangxi corresponds to the spatial distribution of horizontal crustal movement, which proves the exchange and dynamic action of material and energy in the region that cause the change and structural deformation of fault materials and the corresponding gravity change on earth's surface. The recent analysis of abnormal crustal deformation in northwestern Guangxi shows that Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang is a gradient zone of abnormal gravity change and also a horizontal deformation surface compressional transition zone. It locates at the section of significant change of Moho isobaths, the seismicity gap formed by M_L3.0 earthquakes and the abnormal low b-value zone. According to comprehensive analysis, the region has the risk of moderately strong earthquake.     

Comparison of spectral and spatial methods for a Moho recovery from gravity and vertical gravity-gradient data

In global studies investigating the Earth’s lithospheric structure, the spectral expressions for the gravimetric forward and inverse modeling of the global gravitational and crustal structure models are preferably used, because of their numerical efficiency. In regional studies, the applied numerical schemes typically utilize the expressions in spatial form. Since the gravity-gradient observations have a more localized support than the gravity measurements, the gravity-gradient data (such as products from the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer - GOCE - gravity-gradiometry satellite mission) could preferably be used in regional studies, because of reducing significantly the spatial data-coverage required for a regional inversion or interpretation. In this study, we investigate this aspect in context of a regional Moho recovery. In particular, we compare the numerical performance of solving the Vening Meinesz-Moritz’s (VMM) inverse problem of isostasy in spectral and spatial domains from the gravity and (vertical) gravity-gradient data. We demonstrate that the VMM spectral solutions from the gravity and gravity-gradient data are (almost) the same, while the VMM spatial solutions differ from the corresponding spectral solutions, especially when using the gravity-gradient data. The validation of the VMM solutions, however, reveals that the VMM spatial solution from the gravity-gradient data has a slightly better agreement with seismic models. A more detailed numerical analysis shows that the VMM spatial solution formulated for the gravity gradient is very sensitive to horizontal spatial variations of the vertical gravity gradient, especially in vicinity of the computation point. Consequently, this solution provides better results in regions with a relatively well-known crustal structure, while suppressing errors caused by crustal model uncertainties from distant zones. Based on these findings we argue that the gravity-gradient data are more suitable than the gravity data for a regional Moho recovery.     

日本MW9.0地震震区及其周缘2002—2015年卫星重力变化时空特征

本文在考虑全球陆面数据同化系统陆地水储量变化影响后,利用2002年4月—2015年4月GRACE卫星RL05月重力场模型获取了2011年日本M_W9.0地震震中及其周边区域的重力场信息;然后给出了日本及其周边2003—2015年的年度累积重力变化和差分重力变化,并且利用经验正态函数方法深入分析了该地震过程中同震重力变化对区域重力场的贡献. 结果显示:日本M_W9.0地震前研究区域出现了幅值高达2×10-8 m/s2的异常重力变化,其同震效应的时间和空间特征均出现在第一模态,且同震重力变化和震后区域重力场变化特征显著,这充分表明该地震对区域重力场的影响显著.