准平衡和非平衡流对台风百合（2001）内中尺度深厚湿对流的影响

利用台风百合(2001)的高分辨率模式资料, 应用PV－ω反演方法, 在分析台风准平衡和非平衡垂直环流基本特征的基础上, 诊断研究了热力和动力强迫对台风深厚湿对流结构的影响, 结果指出: 准平衡流能够描述台风中具有较长生命史过程的中尺度对流系统的环流结构, 中层大振幅垂直运动主要由准平衡ω方程中凝结潜热释放的热力强迫所决定; 台风低层由动力辐合强迫产生的弱对流, 对眼墙区深厚湿对流的形成起到触发作用; 而高层动力强迫产生的下沉运动则削弱了凝结潜热项的影响, 抑制了垂直运动向高层伸展。非平衡垂直环流结构上呈现的短波振荡和快时间尺度调整的时空分布特征表明, 它是与重力快波频散过程相联系的非定常环流。分析台风中深厚湿对流形成的物理模型可知, 准平衡动力强迫引起的低层弱对流达到一定振幅, 则会引起中层水汽相变引起的凝结潜热反馈, 使得准平衡和非平衡流叠加形成了眼墙区上升运动的大值中心, 加上非平衡垂直环流对动量和热量起到的补偿和调整作用, 构成了台风内中尺度深厚湿对流的组织化过程。     

近年来中尺度涡动力学研究进展

围绕国内外近年来中尺度涡的动力学研究进展,聚焦中尺度对流涡的涡度方程和热量方程,对中尺度对流涡的动力学进展进行了梳理总结,指出环境风切变、垂直运动、平流的动力辐合、风场变形、热力场变化及地形等对中尺度涡的涡度发展均有作用。此外,中尺度涡动力学的研究进展,还体现在能量方程和中尺度垂直运动方程的推导和诊断方面。强对流系统中,垂直运动的变化与不稳定能量及对流层中层水平运动的风速有关。     

准平衡流在中尺度深厚湿对流系统中的诊断分析概述

从中尺度组织化深厚湿对流具有强烈的辐散风效应和强垂直运动的观测事实出发,评述了平衡流和非平衡流在对旋转风和辐散风的诊断分析中的作用和不足,介绍了准平衡流的原理、计算方法及其分别在台风暴雨和梅雨锋暴雨诊断研究中的应用。研究结果表明:准平衡流能真实反映涡散共存的大振幅垂直运动特征,暴雨区的垂直环流中有50%～70%归于准平衡流部分,准平衡流可以描述致洪暴雨过程中具有较长生命史组织化过程的深厚湿对流系统中垂直运动的主要部分,准平衡流场具有涡散运动共存的特征,准平衡流分析方法在中尺度深厚湿对流系统诊断研究中具有重要作用。     

正压大气中尺度半平衡和准平衡动力学模式

应用描写正压大气运动的基本方程组，分析了中尺度大气运动的物理特征，指出非平衡强迫运动是引起中尺度重要天气演变的根本原因。中尺度动力学方程组是中尺度动力学理论研究的基础，因此，结合中尺度大气运动的基本特征，依据严格的尺度分析理论和摄动理论，简化基于流体力学和热力学的大气动力学方程组使之能够恰当地描述出中尺度运动的基本特征，对于中尺度动力学的发展是极为必要的。基于非线性平衡方程所得到的半平衡和准平衡动力学模式分别与半地转和准地转模式极为相似，它们可以较精确地描述中尺度大气运动的基本特征，因而，可作为中尺度动力学研究的理论基础。将准平衡动力学模式应用于中尺度涡旋系统的研究，结论表明中尺度平衡涡旋系统主要是受梯度风控制，其流场和气压场的发展演变则由一个演化方程来描写，获得了较为理想的结果。     

强迫流与不稳定流的相互作用

通过数值试验的方法,研究非保守系统中的基流平衡被破坏和重建过程中,产生非平衡中尺度环流与不稳定能量造成的对流关系,着重探索在形成持续时间较长、尺度较大的深厚湿对流的物理过程中,强迫与不稳定的相互作用.研究结果表明:强迫流比不稳定流小一个量级.强迫流虽然本身的量值较小,但是强迫流是不稳定流的触发机制.如果环境场具有深厚的不稳定层(垂直或倾斜方向),并且环境场强迫出一定振幅的呈上升运动的强迫流,则在0～3小时以后,将在强迫流上升运动中心激发出不稳定流上升运动中心,或使已经存在的不稳定流上升运动中心向强迫流上升运动中心移动.     

登陆台风内中尺度强对流系统演变机制的湿位涡分析

2005年05号台风"海棠"登陆福建后,在外围云系里有个明显发展的中尺度对流云团经过温州东部及北部地区,引起了强降水,从而造成比热带风暴环流本身更具破坏力的强烈天气,因此研究台风内中尺度对流系统(M(2S)的发展机制能够为预报台风灾害提供依据.文中使用中尺度静力模式WRF对台风"海棠"登陆过程进行了模拟,模式很好地模拟了台风登陆过程的路径、强度变化趋势和降水分布,尤其是模拟出了台风环流内的一次中尺度对流系统的发展过程,并利用模拟结果对台风环流内的这次中尺度对流系统进行了与之相关联的湿位涡分析,从而揭示了台风环流内中尺度对流系统发展演变的湿位涡特征.结果表明,在对流形成阶段,MPV1即对流不稳定为MCS的形成提供背景不稳定条件,由MPV2即湿等熵面的倾斜和水平风的垂直切变而引起的涡旋发展作为强迫机制:MCS形成的区域及东南区域中低层是强对流不稳定层,蕴含丰富的不稳定能量,倾斜上升运动把对流不稳定区具有强不稳定能量的暖湿卒气向西北中层的中性层结区输送.由于θep的减小,气旋性涡度增强,有利于形成对流,另一方面,由于湿等熵面倾斜和低空急流加强而引起的涡旋发展作为一种强迫机制激发对流不稳定能晕得到释放,从而形成对流;在对流系统的发展阶段,由于低层的对流不稳定性进一步减弱,θep一步减小,气旋性涡度进一步增强,有利于MCS的增强,中层等θe线的倾斜度比绝对动量M等值线的倾斜度大,对应有条件对称不稳定区域,满足条件对称不稳定(CSI)条件,在湿等熵面倾斜和台风低空急流作用下引起的涡旋发展强迫对称不稳定能量释放,从而使得对流得以维持和加强.通过以上的分析给出了台风环流内中尺度对流系统发生发展的概念模型.     

低空急流发生、发展的数值试验(Ⅱ)——动力学分析

本文对一次低空急流过程的数值模拟结果作了动力学分析,着重讨论了急流区的环流结构及积云对流对其发生、发展的影响。主要结果为:低空急流区有一对横向非地转二级环流,它是低空急流发展的一个重要条件;强频散的低空急流与积云对流造成的静力不稳定场耦合,诱发出不稳定的中尺度重力惯性波,通过Wave—CISK机制引导到低空急流与二级环流的发展;低空急流发展过程中的非地转特征和二级环流都是重力惯性波发展的产物。     

登陆台风环流内的一次中尺度强对流过程

2005年05号台风“海棠”登陆福建后,在外围云系里有1个明显发展的中尺度对流云团经过温州东部及北部地区,引起了强降水。通过分析这次中尺度对流系统的环流形势,得到该次中尺度对流系统的垂直结构特征,并对中尺度强对流系统的形成和发展机制进行研究。结果表明:台风东南急流在温州附近冷区边缘处低层受地形影响发生强烈辐合引起的垂直上升运动和冷暖空气相汇产生的对流不稳定性是台风环流内中尺度对流系统的主要形成机制;对流系统在暖湿空气和冷空气中心交汇处发展,西北侧的冷空气堆迫使暖湿东南气流沿西北倾斜的等熵面爬升,有利于倾斜对流系统的发展;低层条件不稳定区与中层条件对称不稳定区叠加,产生对流对称不稳定,在湿等熵面倾斜引起的涡旋发展的强迫机制下在中层产生范围较广的倾斜上升对流;由于等熵面的倾斜,大气水平风垂直切变或湿斜压性增加,进一步加强涡度的发展,使得对流系统向西北方向发展;另外,源于东南沿海,由台风东南气流输送的水汽为特大暴雨的产生提供了有利的热力条件。     

基于螺旋度的中尺度平衡方程及非平衡流诊断方法

在回顾大尺度准地转平衡理论、各种平衡方程、平衡模式及非平衡流诊断工具的基础上,对平衡方程、非平衡方程给出了具体的定义.并在此基础上,进一步考虑中尺度强对流天气系统的特征,指出中尺度也有平衡运动的存在.但是由于中尺度对流系统中强烈的辐散风效应以及不可忽略的垂直运动的作用,以散度方程为基础的各种近似平衡方程不足以描述中尺度强对流天气系统的平衡运动,进而提出了从能够同时考虑旋转、辐散及垂直运动作用的螺旋度方程出发,寻找中尺度的平衡方程.在所得的平衡方程基础上,给出了相应的平衡模式和非平衡方程.并进一步将非平衡方程分解,用来诊断非平衡过程的平衡破坏和平衡恢复两个阶段,同时将它们与水平螺旋度和垂直螺旋度联系起来.     

淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究 Ⅱ: 不稳定条件及其增强和维持机制分析

利用"淮河流域东北部一次异常特大暴雨的数值模拟研究Ⅰ"的数值模拟结果,分析了几种不稳定对流涡度矢量(CVV)与中尺度深湿对流系统之间的关系,并分析了不稳定条件的增强和维持机制,结果表明:(1)中低层对流不稳定是深湿对流系统发生的先决条件,由于低层存在辐合,使得周围湿空气向暴雨区集中,对流单体在暴雨区汇聚,且发生合并增强,台风左前方向暴雨区输送对流不稳定能量等,是使得暴雨区对流不稳定重新建立和加强的重要机制.(2)深湿对流系统的中低层不仅有对流不稳定,而且还有斜压不稳定、条件对称不稳定,而中高层必须有湿斜压不稳定和条件对称不稳定.深湿对流系统中高层西(北)侧为负MPV2柱,东(南)侧为正MPV2柱;(3)深湿对流系统中惯性不稳定柱与惯性稳定柱相间分布,西(南)侧为负CVV柱,东(北)侧为正CVV柱,负CVV柱对深湿对流起激发作用;(4)惯性不稳定、湿倾斜不稳定和条件不稳定产生强的倾斜式对流,而强的倾斜式上升运动加强了深对流系统北侧高层的南风分量,因深对流系统南侧低层出现补偿性下沉气流,因而低层南风加强,高低空急流中心的加强会进一步加强对流的发展,使得惯性不稳定、湿倾斜不稳定及条件不稳定增强和维持,这是一个正反馈过程.(5)在暴雨中心以东维持一顺切变环流,同时暴雨中心的浅对流单体吸收来自南方的水汽和不稳定能量,中尺度辐合线与β中尺度涡旋对对流单体起组织和增强作用,对流系统中辐合、辐散柱相间分布,强散度柱与强涡柱互伴互耦,都有利于形成中尺度深湿对流系统,使不稳定向纵深方向发展,从而使得不稳定得到增强和维持.     

The Major Research Advances of Mesoscale Weather Dynamics in China Since 2003

This paper reviews the main theoretical progress of mesoscale weather dynamics since 2003, including： （1） The dynamic mechanisms of balanced and unbalanced flow are applied to study the genesis and development problems of mesoscale circulation. The symmetric instability and transverse-wave instability are analyzed in line and vortex atmosphere convection, and further research has been done on nonlinear convective symmetric instability. The interaction between forced convection and unstable convection and the wave characteristics of mesoscale motion are also discussed. （2） Intermediate atmosphere dynamic boundary layer models are developed. The complicated nonlinear interaction is analyzed theoretically between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free atmosphere. The structure of the topography boundary layer, atmospheric frontogenesis, the structure and circulation of the low-level front and other boundary layer dynamic problems are discussed. （3） The formation and development of meso-β-scale rainstorms under the background of the East-Asia atmosphere circulation are diagnosed with the variation of MPV （moist potential vorticity） anomalies. And some physical vectors are modified and applied in the moist atmosphere.     

Mesoscale dynamics and its application in torrential rainfall systems in China

Progress over the past decade in understanding moisture-driven dynamics and torrential rain storms in China is reviewed in this paper. First, advances in incorporating moisture effects more realistically into theory are described, including the development of a new parameter, generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) and an improved moist ageostrophic Q vector(Qum). Advances in vorticity dynamics are also described, including the adoption of a "parcel dynamic" approach to investigate the development of the vertical vorticity of an air parcel; a novel theory of slantwise vorticity development, proposed because vorticity develops easily near steep isentropic surfaces; and the development of the convective vorticity vector(CVV)as an effective new tool. The significant progress in both frontal dynamics and wave dynamics is also summarized, including the geostrophic adjustment of initial unbalanced flow and the dual role of boundary layer friction in frontogenesis, as well as the interaction between topography and fronts, which indicate that topographic perturbations alter both frontogenesis and frontal structure. For atmospheric vortices, mixed wave/vortex dynamics has been extended to explain the propagation of spiral rainbands and the development of dynamical instability in tropical cyclones. Finally, we review wave and basic flow interaction in torrential rainfall, for which it was necessary to extend existing theory from large-scale flows to mesoscale fields, enriching our knowledge of mesoscale atmospheric dynamics.     

A review of major progresses in mesoscale dynamic research in China since 1999

Mesoscale research conducted by Chinese meteorologists during the past four years is reviewed.Advances in theoretical studies include (a) mesoscale quasi-balanced and semi-balanced dynamics, derived through scale analysis and the perturbation method which are suitable for describing mesoscale vortices;(b) subcritical instability and vortex-sheet instability; (c) frontal adjustment mechanism and the effect of topography on frontgenesis; and (d) slantwise vorticity development theories, the slantwise vortex equation,and moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomalies with precipitation-related heat and mass sinks and MPV impermeability theorem. From the MPV conservation viewpoint, the transformation mechanism between different scale weather systems is analyzed. Based on the data analysis, a new dew-point front near the periphery of the West Pacific subtropical high is identified. In the light of MPV theory and Q-vector theory, some events associated with torrential rain systems and severe storms are analyzed and diagnosed.Progress in mesoscale numerical simulation has been made in the development of meso-α, meso-β vortices,meso-γ-scale downbursts and precipitation produced by deep convective systems with MM5 and other mesoscale models.     

斜压气流的中尺度稳定性 Ⅰ.对称不稳定

本文是“斜压气流的中尺度稳定性”的第一部份,讨论斜压基流对平行型中尺度扰动的稳定性,寻找弱稳定层结大气中出现带状中尺度扰动的可能性及其对深厚对流云系的启动和组织作用。 用非弹性近似(anelastic assumption),导出适于用广义矩阵法及打靶法解特征值问题的理想大气扰动方程,并在线性风,双曲正切型风及飑线发生前的实测风分布下,计算出中尺度不稳定谱及特征扰动结构,通过能量分析,说明斜压性在产生这种非地转惯性对流中的作用。     

ANALYSIS OF THE COLD AIR EFFECT ON AN EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENT TRIGGERED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH OF TYPHOON HAIKUI (1211)

Based on intensive automatic weather station data, satellite cloud imagery, NCEP reanalyzed data, and the simulation results from mesoscale numerical models, this study analyzes the characteristics and formation mechanisms of the mesoscale convection system (MCS) during the extreme precipitation event that was triggered by a weakened low-pressure inverted trough of Typhoon Haikui on August 10/2012. The results of this study show that cold air at the rear of a northeastern cold vortex creates thermodynamic conditions favorable to the development of extreme precipitation. The main body of the cold air is northward located so that the cold air invades only the middle layer of the periphery of the inverted trough. Thus, the cold air minimally affects the lower layer, which results in a vertically distributed structure of the temperature advection that augments the formation and development of convective instability stratification. In the middle troposphere, the cold air encounters the convergent, ascending, warm moist air from the low-pressure inverted trough, leading to frontogenesis. The frontogenesis enhances wind convergence which, in turn, further enhances the frontogenesis, and the positive feedback between these two forces augments the development of meso- and small-scale convection systems in the rainstorm region and its vicinity, which strengthens the upward transportation of water vapor from low layers and thickening of water vapor convergence and results in local heavy rains.     

一次典型东风波极端暴雨的中尺度特征及地形影响分析

利用湖南省常规气象观测资料、区域自动站资料、NCEP再分析资料、常德多普勒雷达资料,分析2016年8月8—15日在多个东风波倒槽接力影响下,湘北地区反复出现的极端暴雨天气的中尺度特征,并利用WRF-ARW中尺度数值模式,对8月10—11日湘北地区极端暴雨过程进行数值模拟和地形敏感性试验。结果表明:(1)1604号台风在广东深圳登陆后沿西北路径移动和1605号台风在西北太平洋向北移动后,副热带高压快速西伸控制华东及沿海地区,其底部的东风波扰动为极端暴雨提供了环流背景;(2)近地面不均匀加热为东风波槽附近强对流提供了充足的热力不稳定条件,地面中尺度辐合线为对流的触发和加强起到重要作用;(3)东风波槽带来的边界层暖湿气流在武陵山东侧激发深厚中尺度涡旋,是极端暴雨形成的主要原因;(4)地形敏感性试验进一步验证了东风波暖湿气流在武陵山脉地形抬升和阻挡作用下,在迎风坡上游地区形成气旋性辐合导致暴雨增幅。     

Numerical simulation of a torrential rain event in the northeast of Huaihe Basin. Part II: Instability conditions and the mechanism of intensification and maintenance

Based on the simulation displayed in Part I of this study, the intensification and maintenance, the relationship between deep moist mesoscale convective system (DMMCS) and instability, convective vorticity vector (CVV) are analyzed in the present paper. Results show that: (1) middle-low level convective instability is the precondition of the occurrence of DMMCS. The convergence and merger enhancement of convection cells, as well as the convective instability energy transporting from the left-front of typhoon play an essential role in the re-establishment and enhancement of convective instability. (2) Baroclinic instability and conditional symmetric instability appear not only in the middle-low level, but also are distinct in the middle-upper level of DMMCS. (3) In DMMCS, there is an alternative distribution of inertial instability column and inertial stability column. In the west and south, there are negative CVV columns, which is favorable for the burst of deep moist convection. (4) The strong slantwise convection induced by inertial instability, baroclinic instability, and conditional symmetric instability enhance the upper-level southerly component. Due to the appearance of the compensated downdraft at the low level of south side of DMMCS, the low level southerly intensified, and the enhancement of upper- and low-level cores is in favor of the development of DMMCS, which will be beneficial to the reinforcement and maintenance of inertial instability, baroclinic instability, and conditional symmetric instability. It is a positive feedback process. (5) There is a downshear circulation to the east of rainfall cell. Shallow convections near this cell absorb the vapor and instability energy coming from the south. In the meanwhile, the mesoscale convergence line and meso-β-scale vortex organize and intensify convective cells. In DMMCS, there is an alternative distribution of convergence and divergence columns, and the couple between strong divergence and vorticity columns. They are both conducive to the development of DMMCS, and the instability will be intensified and maintained for its development in depth.     

致洪暴雨过程中尺度涡旋的结构和准平衡特征分析

利用2008年6月广西致洪暴雨过程高分辨率数值模式资料,分析引起暴雨的中尺度涡旋在移动和持续性发展过程中其内部结构的演变以及系统的动力学特征。研究结果表明,中尺度涡旋是导致此次广西暴雨的主要系统,其发展移动过程中伴随有强烈上升运动的深厚湿对流,并在中高层持续形成明显的暖心结构。此次涡旋系统移动过程可分为涡旋南移和涡旋东移两个阶段,由于受到环境场的影响,涡旋中心区域动量、热量和水汽的再分配为其持续性发展提供有利条件。同时诊断分析表明,涡旋内部存在具有继发特征的长时间维持的组织化深厚湿对流系统,以强非地转分量为特征的超地转流,并表现出涡散运动共存且同量级的特征,具有典型的准平衡特征。