Comparison of Ionospheric Parameters during Similar Geomagnetic Storms

The degree of closeness of ionospheric parameters during one magnetic storm and of the same parameters during another, similar, storm is estimated. Overall, four storms—two pairs of storms close in structure and appearance according to recording of the magnetic field Х-component—were analyzed. The examination was based on data from Sodankyla observatory (Finland). The f-graphs of the ionospheric vertical sounding, magnetometer data, and riometer data on absorption were used. The main results are as follows. The values of the critical frequencies foF2, foF1, and foE for different but similar magnetic storms differ insignificantly. In the daytime, the difference is on average 6% (from 0 to 11.1%) for all ionospheric layers. In the nighttime conditions, the difference for foF2 is 4%. The nighttime values of foEs differ on average by 20%. These estimates potentially make it possible to forecast ionospheric parameters for a particular storm.     

Estimation of the Critical Frequency in the Radio Sounding of the Ionosphere on Board High-Orbit Spacecrafts over the Arctic Region

A possibility of estimating the local value of the plasma frequency of the F2 layer ionospheric maximum (subionospheric region) according to the multifrequency sounding data of the arctic ionosphere from high-elliptical spacecrafts was considered. The data in the form of the frequency dependence of the group path of the sounding signal, the transionogram, were synthesized in the results of mathematical modeling. The energetic potential of proposed method, the wave field mode structure, and uncertainty of the critical frequency estimation according to the measured cut-off frequencies of magnetoionic components of the transionogram were analyzed. It was shown that the expected potential uncertainty of foF2 estimation is somewhat higher than that for the case of maximum reliable ground based data, but it is, in general, substantially less than the methods that use measurements of the total electron content in GPS technology. We discussed physical feasibility for a realization of the method for ionospheric state diagnostics.     

Modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters by a combination of wavelet transform and autoregression models

We propose a method of the modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters by combining wavelet transform with autoregression models (integrated moving average). The method makes it possible to reveal regularities in ionospheric parameters and to make forecasts on variations. Also, this method can be used to fill the gaps in ionospheric parameters, with consideration of their diurnal and seasonal variations. The method was tested on foF2 data and data on the total electron content for the regions of Kamchatka and Magadan. The models constructed for the natural variation in ionospheric parameters allowed us to analyze its dynamical mode and build a forecast with a step of up to five hours. Based on estimates for model errors, we revealed anomalies arising during periods of increased solar activity and strong earthquakes in Kamchatka.     

Properties of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer critical frequency median in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere during low and moderate solar activity

Based on an analysis of data from the European ionospheric stations at subauroral latitudes, it has been found that the main ionospheric trough (MIT) is not characteristic for the monthly median of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2), at least for low and moderate solar activity. In order to explain this effect, the properties of foF2 in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere have been additionally studied for low geomagnetic activity, when the MIT localization is known quite reliably. It has been found that at low and moderate solar activity during night hours in winter, the foF2 data from ionospheric stations are often absent in the MIT area. For this reason, a model of the foF2 monthly median, which was constructed from the remaining data of these stations, contains no MIT or a very weakly pronounced MIT.     

Inversion of the F2 layer critical frequency with the solar zenith angle

Normalization of the F2 layer critical frequency is put forward with a model related to the solar zenith angle at the time of observation and its local noon value. The method implies a physically based replacement of variable representing one of the key controlling parameters of the modern empirical ionospheric models. The inversion of critical frequency is analyzed with the hourly values of foF2 of seven ionospheric stations for 2000–2006 (half the solar activity cycle). The normalized critical frequency fnF2 reveals an improved correlation between the data of different stations and improved inter-seasonal correlation of the data of a particular station as compared with the initial foF2 values. A correlation radius in summer is two times greater for normalized critical frequency than for observations. The analytical model of expansion of the diurnal variation of critical frequency with four hourly values at 00, 06, 12 and 18 h of local time exhibits improved statistical features of normalized critical frequency as compared with observed critical frequency.     

Variations in the fractal dimension of fluctuations of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency

The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.     

Relation between daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency foF2

The relation between the daytime in the nighttime values of the critical frequencies (foF2) of the ionospheric F ₂ layer is considered. The correlation coefficient of foF2 measured at 1400 and 0200 LT of the same day is considered in various seasons of years with different solar activity (during the complete cycle of solar activity in 1979–1989). Special accent is made on the dependencies of the above mentioned correlation on a choice of magnetically quiet days with various limitations on maximal values of geomagnetic index Ap. It has been obtained that a statistically significant negative correlation between the foF2(1400) and foF2(0200) is more pronounced in the periods of high solar activity. The effect increases with increasing limitation of the considered days on value of Ap: the largest values of the correlation coefficient are observed if only very quiet days are considered (Ap < 6). There are preliminary indications that the considered relation between daytime and nighttime foF2 values depends on latitude.     

Comparative analysis of disturbances in the midlatitude ionospheric F 2 layer during strong and extreme magnetic storms in March 2001 according to the data from magnetically conjugate ground ionospheric stations

Ionospheric disturbances at heights of the F ₂ layer maximum during the strong magnetic storm (the minimum value of the Dst index was ?149 nT) and the magnetic superstorm (the minimum value of the Dst index was ?387 nT) have been compared based on the data from two pairs of magnetically conjugate midlatitude ground stations for ionospheric vertical sounding. The storms began on March 19, 2001, and March 31, 2001, respectively. It has been obtained that almost only negative ionospheric disturbances were observed in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in both cases. The maximum effect in changes in the layer critical frequency (foF2) in both hemispheres has a time delay relative to the moment of the maximum disturbance in the Dst index on the order of 3–4 h for the strong storm and about 1 h for the superstorm. The disturbed variations in the foF2 critical frequency in different hemispheres correlate well with each other in the plane of one magnetic meridian, but the correlation substantially weakens at different magnetic longitudes. An assumption is made that the revealed features of the behavior of the disturbed midlatitude ionospheric F ₂ layer are caused by the complex character of the thermospheric response to the energy release in the auroral zone during the considered magnetic storms.     

Global empirical model of critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer for quiet geomagnetic conditions

Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.     

Behavior of parameters of the ionospheric F2 layer at the turn of the Centuries: 1. critical frequency

The available massifs of experimental data on the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer, foF2, covering the first decade of the new century, are considered. On the basis of studying these massifs, a conclusion is drawn that the scatter of foF2 values (measured by the standard deviation (SD)) relative to the dependence on solar activity has grown substantially over recent decades as compared to the period 1958–1979. The possible causes of the SD increase are considered. It is shown that the foF2 values for the period 1998–2010 decreased as compared to the period 1958–1979 by an average of 0.6 MHz which gives an estimate of the foF2 trend of ～-0.03 MHz per year. Linear trends in foF2 for some ionospheric stations are analyzed. It is obtained that, in spite of the scatter in the data, it is possible to obtain statistically significant trends for each considered situation (day and postsunset period in summer and winter). At the same time, the winter negative trends (～-0.052 MHz per year) are approximately a factor of 2 higher than the summer ones (～-0.024 MHz per year). Comparisons with the trends obtained for earlier periods show that the negative trend in foF2 increased substantially towards the first decade of our century.     

Increase in the critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region prior to the substorm expansion phase

Specific variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer during magnetospheric substorms have been found based on the data of vertical sounding stations in Europe and North America. Maximal attention has been paid to the positive peaks of ΔfoF2 with a duration of 6–8 h before the beginning of the substorm expansion phase (T ₀). The possible physical mechanisms by which these peaks are formed (related to the impact of fast particles in the foreshock region of the solar wind on the Earth’s magnetosphere and different for middle and high latitudes) have been considered. The positive peaks of ΔfoF2 can be used in a short-term prediction of the ionospheric disturbance onset and space weather on the whole.     

Long-term changes in the Delta <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 parameter based on the data of two European ionospheric stations

Analysis of changes in the critical frequency foF2 in recent decades has been performed by determination of “Delta foF2” parameter. These values determine the mean change of foF2 values from the “etalon period” (1958–1980) to later periods. The results are compared with the determination of foF2 trends, which was performed in a series of previous publications of the authors. The data of two most reliable ionospheric stations of the European region, Slough and Juliusruh, are analyzed. The results confirm all principal conclusions obtained earlier, which were based on analysis of the trends. A systematic decrease of foF2 with time occurs (which corresponds to a negative trend), and the character of changes in the Delta values with season and local time on the whole agrees with the character of changes in the trend. It is shown that the results based on the data of both considered stations show good agreement.     

Relationship between variations in the characteristics of the high-latitude ionosphere and magnetic <Emphasis Type="Italic">PC</Emphasis> indices

It is shown in a joint analysis of ionospheric vertical sounding data at the arctic Heiss Island and antarctic Vostok stations and the geomagnetic PC index, which characterizes the geoefficient component of the interplanetary magnetic field, that, during a disturbed geomagnetic period when PC > 2 in years of solar activity (SA) maxima in the winter season, positive phases of ionospheric disturbances are predominantly observed. In the nighttime hours, an increase in the critical foF2 frequencies by a factor of 2–3 can occur. In a disturbed geomagnetic period at the PC > 1.5 level in the summer season, negative phases of ionospheric disturbances are mainly observed. In years of maximum and moderate SA, the decrease in foF2, as compared to their median values, happens at night (∼30%). In years of low SA, the decrease value is much lower. At a substantial decrease in the PC index level, in the region of the geomagnetic pole at the Vostok station, in some cases, a substantial increase in the electron density level in the F region occurs with a delay of 0.5 h. At the same time, a significant correlation (r = −0.57) is observed between variations in the PC index and foF2.     

Reaction of the critical frequency of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer to a sharp depletion in atmospheric pressure

Changes in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer at several midlatitude stations of ionospheric vertical sounding during a sharp depletion in atmospheric pressure under quiet solar and geomagnetic conditions are analyzed. It is shown that in such periods, the observed foF2 values differ from the mean values by approximately 10–15% and the deviations from the mean could be both negative (in the daytime hours) and positive (at night). Such variations in foF2 could be referred to the known class of ionospheric disturbances observed under a quiet geomagnetic situation, that is, to the so-called “Q-disturbances.” Analysis of wavelet spectra of foF2 variations shows the presence in the F region of oscillations of various periods (from 0.5 to 10 days). The decrease in the amplitude of daily variations during pressure depletion is found. Presumably, the observed effect is caused by the dynamic impact of waves formed in the lower atmosphere on the ionospheric F2 layer.     

Observations of large-scale plasma convection in the magnetosphere with respect to the geomagnetic activity level

The data of the ionospheric observations (the daily f plots) at the Yakutsk meridional chain of ionosondes (Yakutsk–Zhigansk–Batagai–Tixie Bay) with sharp decreases (breaks) in the critical frequency of the regular ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) are considered. The data for 1968–1983 were analyzed, and the statistics of the foF2 break observations, which indicate that these breaks are mainly registered in equinoctial months and in afternoon and evening hours under moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions, are presented. Calculations performed using the prognostic model of the high-latitude ionosphere indicate that the critical frequency break position coincides with the equatorial boundary of large-scale plasma convection in the dusk MLT sector.     

Long-term trends in the ratio of the daytime and nighttime values of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2

The consideration of the relation between the daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency F2, foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer, started in the previous publication of the authors, is continued. The main regularities in variations in the correlation coefficient R(foF2) characterizing this relation are confirmed using larger statistical material (more ionospheric stations and longer observational series). Long-term trends in the R(foF2) value are found: at all stations the negative value of R(foF2) increases with time after 1980.     

Planetary statistics of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F 2 region during catastrophic earthquakes

The statistics of the relative variations (δfoF2) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ region during catastrophic earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6 at 70 vertical sounding (VS) automatic ionospheric stations (AISs) of the global network is considered. Five-day periods including 70 such situations have been selected for 1981 and 1983–1985. Five sets of 24 foF2 measurements from 3 days before to a day after the earthquake instant are formed for each AIS. The number of AISs, for which the fourth statistical invariant is above the significance level (E ≥ 1), has been analyzed. It has been indicated that the histogram deformation at the set of AISs is substantial a day before earthquakes.     

Comparison of variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency before the strong Italian earthquakes and during the magnetic storm: Data of the stations for ground-based vertical sounding of the ionosphere

The possible seismic ionospheric effects before two strong earthquakes in Italy, which took place near Rome station (January 7, 1962, M = 6.0; April 5, 1998, M = 5.3), have been studied using the data of several European stations for ground-based vertical sounding of the ionosphere. An analysis of the behavior of the foF2 critical frequencies for the earthquake that occurred on January 7, 1962, made it possible to simultaneously consider the effects, originating during earthquake preparation under quiet geomagnetic conditions and caused by the magnetic strom that began on January 10, 1962, using a unified technique. It has been indicated that the distinguished precursor effects of two considered earthquakes with magnitudes not more than 6.0 are localized in the region with an epicentral distance of about 400 km, whereas the disturbances caused by the magnetic storm are of a planetary character. The amplitude of foF2 seismic ionospheric disturbances is much smaller than the maximal variations caused by the magnetic storm; however, the absolute value of this amplitude is a factor of 1.5 as large as the standard deivation from the monthly median.     

Anomalous increase in the foF2 critical frequency prior to the Spanish earthquake of May 11, 2011

A study of variations in the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) prior to a shallow-focus eartquake with a magnitude M = 5.1 which occurred in Spain on May 11, 2011, is carried out. The obtained results show that a positive disturbance in the foF2 value was observed at the ionospheric Del’ebre station, which is the closest to the earthquake epicenter. At the same time, no disturbances in foF2 are revealed at ionospheric stations located at a greater distance from the epicenter. This fact makes it possible to conclude that the positive disturbance in the F2 layer observed at the Del’ebre station could have a sesmogenic nature.