根据i—f—j模式估计山西平陆地区的长期强震潜势

山西省平陆地区位于山西地震带南端，为了分析该地区未来的长期强需求潜势，本较系统地分析当地的破坏性地震及１５００年以来的有地震地震资料，并进一步应用中国在陆特征的地震轮回模式及其复发时间概率模型估算法当前特征地震轮回的平均时间间隔，以及从１９９５年起未来百年内复发强震的概率，结果表明：未来１００年来该地区复发强震的危险性很高，未来５０年内复发强震的危险性也不能排除。     

内蒙古乌拉特前旗地区地震活动趋势分析

通过对1998－2000年7月内蒙古乌拉特前度地区的地震活动（包括西山咀震群）特征及一些测震学指标变化特征的分析，研究了该地区未来地震的活动趋势，认为未来1年内该区发生6．0级以上中强地震的可能性不大，但可能发生4级或5级左右的地震，沿经度和纬度的震源深度剖面上显示的空区，可能是未来能量积累的区域。     

江苏——南黄海地区地震活动趋势研究

根据１４９５￣１９９５年地震资料，对江苏－南黄海地区地震活动分期进行了划分，并对本世纪以来两个地震活跃幕以及地震活动趋势进行了详细讨论。基于统计分析方法，给出未来中强地震概率估计，并采用多种方法对未来地震进行了预测探讨。     

华南近海地区地震形势初步分析

对华南近海地区的地震形势进行了分析，初步结果表明，未来几十年内，华南近海地区地震活动处于长趋势有起伏的衰减之中，可能发生的最大震级为６级。１９８６—１９９７年间，本区处于中强地震相对活跃时段．未来几年内可能发生数次５级左右地震。值得注意的地区为南澳─海丰和灵山─玉林等。     

从强震前中强地震活动探讨川滇菱形块体内未来强震的可能性

对中国西部南北地震带及相邻地区，1900年以来19次强震震前的中强地震活动图像进行了分析。结果表明：9个震例显示，强震前在震中地区往往有早期地震和临震前的较大地震活动，而且早期地震至临震前较大地震活动的间隔时间与较大地震至主震时间有一个线性比值关系。通过给出的计算公式；M=5.8 1.308logT(a)，结合未来强震地区近期出现的中强地震事件的特定指标，预测研究区内未来强震可能发生的时间，地点和震级。     

安徽与周边地区地震活动关系的研究

在对中国大陆东部与银川地震带及安徽地区地震活动周期进行划分与研究的基础上，将安徽与周边特定地区每周期的地震活动，划分为２４个时空序次。分析研究安徽４个地城与周边特定地区２０个地震时空序次的关系，预测未来几年内安徽中西部地区可能发生Ｍｓ５．０～５．７５地震。     

滇东地区未来数年M≥6．0地震的统计预测

从全概率公式出发，运用古登堡公式对滇东地区震级频率关系、地震活动性及地震复发周期进行了统计分析，认为该地区未来3－4年内有发生M≥6．0地震的可能性     

帕米尔东北侧地震危险性评价和可能发震地点的判定

通过地震活动性周期估计、地震活动性层次模型和对大震前地震活动异常分布的分析，研究了帕米尔东北侧地区未来地震危险性以及可能发生强震的地点。研究结果表明：该区未来几年存在着发生7级以上或8级左右地震的危险性，其发震地点可能在帕米尔东北侧的西半部。     

西藏谢通门——扎申地区近期地震活动性研究

根据西藏谢通门－申扎地区近期的地震活动，以多种地震学方法分析了该区未来地震活动特点，并结合地质构造特征对该区今后可能的地震发展趋势做了估计。     

中国大陆西部及邻近地区地震活动的小波分析

利用能反映非平稳信号时频域特征的小波分析方法，分析了百年来中国大陆西部及邻近大三角地区的地震资料，得到了地震活动在不同时间尺度上的特征。百年来该地区地震活动主要周期分别为42年、22年、7年和14年，而且其强度随时间在变化，由此我们认为对于地震活跃或平静期的讨论只有建立在具体的时间尺度上才有意义。同时利用各种尺度的小波系数和地震活动主周期对未来地震趋势进行的分析表明，未来几年该区地震活动仍相对较为活跃。     

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.     

以剪切波速为宗量的一种砂土地震液化的不确定性判别法

利用基于剪切波速的砂土液化判别法，本文提出了一种可考虑剪切波速的随机性和液化及液化危害等级的模糊性的液化和液化危害等级的判别法。作者首先讨论了当剪切波速具有随机性时液化的发生概率，进而给出了确定场地液化和危害程度的发生概率。在此基础上，结合液化和液化危害程度（等级）的模糊性，利用模糊事件的概率分析方法，提出了可同时考虑随机性和模糊性的场地液化和液化危害性的发生概率的计算方法。     

模糊-统计分析方法在新西兰地震危险性估计中的应用

把模糊聚类分析、模糊地震活动平静异常识别、模糊分维、b值谱分析等方法应用于新西兰南、北两区的地震危险性估计当中.结果表明,这5种方法在此处均可得到有效的应用.     

太湖蓝藻水华灾害灾情评估方法初探

通过对太湖蓝藻水华灾害影响分析,探讨了太湖蓝藻水华灾害灾情评估指标的选取和评价标准的划分,并采用模糊评价模型构建太湖蓝藻水华灾害灾情综合评估方法.评价指标分为影响人口、影响范围、生态环境影响和经济损失四个方面,其中影响人口指标为受灾人口,影响范围指标包括蓝藻水华面积发生百分比和影响时间,生态环境影响指标包括藻细胞浓度、...     

Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP

On the basis of the disaster system theory and comprehensive analysis of flood risk factors, including the hazard of the disaster-inducing factors and disaster-breeding environment, as well as the vulnerability of the hazards-bearing bodies, the primary risk assessment index system of flood diversion district as well as its assessment standards were established. Then, a new model for comprehensive flood risk assessment was put forward in this paper based on set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, named set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model (SPA-VFS), which determines the relative membership degree function of VFS by using SPA method and has the advantages of intuitionist course, simple calculation and good generality application. Moreover, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was combined with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the weights of assessment indices, thus the weights for flood hazard and flood vulnerability were determined by the fuzzy AHP procedure, respectively. Then SPA-VFS were applied to calculate the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with rank feature value equation and the confidence criterion, respectively. Under the natural disasters risk expression recommended by the Humanitarian Affairs Department of United Nations, flood risk grades were achieved from the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with risk grade classification matrix, where flood hazard, flood vulnerability and flood risk were all classified into five grades as very low, low, medium, high and very high. Consequently, integrated flood risk maps could be carried out for flood risk management and decision-making. Finally, SPA-VFS and fuzzy AHP were employed for comprehensive flood risk assessment of Jingjiang flood diversion district in China, and the computational results demonstrate that SPA-VFS is reasonable, reliable and applicable, thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk assessment, and moreover has potential to be applicable to comprehensive risk assessment of other natural disasters with no much modification.     

建设用地地质灾害危险性评估工作中有关问题的探讨

文章针对在地质灾害危险性评估工作中经常遇到一些较模糊的问题,以国土资源部《建设用地地质灾害危险性评估技术要求》（试行）为依据,结合评估工作实际,就如何做好建设用地地质灾害危险性评估工作,合理确定评估项目的重要性和科学划分危险性分区等问题做了初步探讨。     

Assessment of earthquake hazard by simultaneous use of the statistical method and the method of fuzzy mathematics

A probabilistic method and a retrieval method of fuzzy information are simultaneously studied for assessment of earthquake hazard, or earthquake prediction. Statistical indices of regional seismicity in three adjacent time intervals are used to predict an earthquake in the next interval. The indices are earthquake frequency, the maximum magnitude, and a parameter related to the average magnitude (orb-value) and their time derivatives. Applying the probabilistic method, we can estimate a probability for a large earthquake with magnitude larger than a certain threshold occurring in the next time interval in a given region. By using the retrieval method of fuzzy information we can classify time intervals into several classes according to the regional seismic activity in each time interval and then evaluate whether or not the next time interval belongs to seismically hazardous time interval with a large earthquake. Some examples of applying both methods to the North section of the North-South Seismic Zone in China are shown. The results obtained are in good agreement with actual earthquake history. A comparison of the probabilistic method with the method of fuzzy mathematics is made, and it is recommended that earthquake hazard be assessed by simultaneous use of both methods.     

建议一个弥补震害资料不足的方法

本文用模糊贴近度原则作类比,提供了一种弥补震害预测时历史地震资料不足的方法,途径是将一个烈度之下的震害经验推广到其他烈度上去用。实践证明,用这种建立在近似推理基础之上的方法推导出来的结果,在总体趋势上和真实情况完全一致。     

地震活动性的综合判断

地震活动性的许多特点在中强震之前会有所显示,本文试图选用其中某些指标,采纳ISODATA模糊聚类方法进行多项地震活动性指标的综合判断.该方法将样本反复聚类,直到达到一定精度要求为止,且不易出现预报样本独立成类问题.当所选的每项指标均携有一定有震模糊信息(平均有震从属度大于0.5)时,该方法可以综合多项指标作合理判断,把有震、无震样本归入不同类别.由待预报样本所进入类别的震情性质得到预报信息. 本文作了月预报和半年预报的实例验算,结果良好.      

Fuzzy information processing in seismic hazard analysis and decision making

This paper describes a methodology to incorporate vague information, based upon heuristic knowledge and expertise, into the conventional probabilistic approach for the seismic hazard analysis.

The interval analysis method is introduced to process interval information with interpretation from Dempster and Shafer's evidence theory. The Vertex Method is discussed to handle fuzzy information which is a generalization of interval information.

These methods, along with the current approach of seismic hazard analysis, are used to assess the seismic hazard for the San Francisco Bay Area in California and to provide information for deciding strengthening policy of existing buildings.