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1.
We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last ~29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO2 (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOC Br ), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, δ18O Carb ) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.  相似文献   

2.
The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 μg l−1) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination () of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack) of 1.31°C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an of 0.49 and an RMSEPjack of 0.46 Log10μg l−1. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.  相似文献   

3.
We used ostracod species assemblages and their δ18O values in a 32-m sediment core from Lake Qinghai, China, along with information from cores collected at other sites in the lake, to infer lake evolution and hydroclimate changes since the last glacial. Dominant ostracod species Ilyocypris bradyi and its low δ18O values showed that Lake Qinghai was small in size or even consisted of several playa lakes, and the 1F core site could have even been in a wetland setting, under cold and dry climate conditions before 15.0 ka. Presence of Limnocythere inopinata with low δ18O values, and absence of I. bradyi after 15.0 ka, indicate the lake area increased or that the playas merged. The decrease or disappearance of ostracods with high δ18O values showed that the lake shrunk under dry climate from 12.0 to 11.6 ka. After 11.6 ka, hydroclimate shifts inferred from ostracod species changes (Eucypris mareotica and L. inopinata) and their δ18O values were as follows: (1) 11.6–7.4 ka—larger, but still small lake area with greater moisture availability under primarily dry climate conditions, (2) 7.4 to 3.2 ka—increasing lake level under a warmer and wetter climate, and (3) 3.2 ka to present—stable, large, brackish lake. The low ratio of lake water volume to runoff, and close proximity of the core site to freshwater input from the river mouth would have resulted in relatively lower ostracod δ18O values when Lake Qinghai was small in area during the interval from 32.0 to 15.0 ka. Lower ostracod δ18O values during interstadials and throughout the entire Last Glacial Maximum and early deglacial (ca. 24.0–16.0 ka) were caused by a greater contribution of seasonal meltwater from ice or snow and low incoming precipitation δ18O values related to cold climate conditions in the region at that time.  相似文献   

4.
Due to methodological challenges there are only a few studies that focus on macrophyte dynamics in large lakes despite their notable role in a lake’s ecosystem functioning. This study investigates composition and productivity changes of the submerged vegetation of Lake Karakul, Pamir Mountains (Tajikistan), using sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding and elemental (C/N) and isotopic (δ13C, δ15N) measurements of Stuckenia cf. pamirica (Baagøe) Z. Kaplan (Potamogetonaceae) leaf remains. No Stuckenia cf. pamirica leaf remains were found for 28.7–26.1 cal ka BP, when both Potamogetonaceae and Chara (L.) DNA sequences were recorded, suggesting sparse submerged vegetation at the coring site. This agrees with the inference of a deep lake reached using geochemical proxies. From 26.1 to 17.5 cal ka BP a few macrophyte remains and high numbers of Potamogetonaceae sequences were recovered: lake level was probably low, as suggested by other studies on the lake. Another phase of increased numbers of Chara sequences and the absence of Stuckenia cf. pamirica leaf remains was found between 17.5 and 12.2 cal ka BP, which coincides with a lake-level transgression at Lake Karakul as indicated by paleo-shoreline investigations. Analyses of macrophyte remains reveal intermediate paleo-productivity from 6.9 cal ka BP and high paleo-productivity from 2.2 cal ka BP onwards. From comparisons with other studies, we suggest that lake-level changes are the main driver for the submerged vegetation composition and productivity at the coring site in Lake Karakul and underline our conclusions by depicting the present-day distribution of Stuckenia cf. pamirica and Chara within the lake.  相似文献   

5.
Uncertainty complicates the development optimization of oil and gas exploration and production projects, but methods have been devised to analyze uncertainty and its impact on optimal decision-making. This paper compares two methods for development optimization and uncertainty analysis: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and stochastic programming. Two example problems for a gas field development and an oilfield development are solved and discussed to elaborate the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Development optimization involves decisions regarding the configuration of initial capital investment and subsequent operational decisions. Uncertainty analysis involves the quantification of the impact of uncertain parameters on the optimum design concept. The gas field development problem is designed to highlight the differences in the implementation of the two methods and to show that both methods yield the exact same optimum design. The results show that both MC optimization and stochastic programming provide unique benefits, and that the choice of method depends on the goal of the analysis. While the MC method generates more useful information, along with the optimum design configuration, the stochastic programming method is more computationally efficient in determining the optimal solution. Reservoirs comprise multiple compartments and layers with multiphase flow of oil, water, and gas. We present a workflow for development optimization under uncertainty for these reservoirs, and solve an example on the design optimization of a multicompartment, multilayer oilfield development.  相似文献   

6.
Facies analysis, magnetic susceptibility, and analysis of grain size, TOC content and isotopes (137Cs, 210Pb, 226Ra, 228Ra, and 238U concentrations) were used to determine the history of the modern deposits of the Brno reservoir. The sedimentary succession can be subdivided into two main units. The lower unit is formed predominantly by medium- to coarse-grained silty sands and is interpreted as a fluvial succession deposited before the Svratka River was dammed. The upper unit consists of brownish planar laminated silts and rarely of clayey or sandy silts and is interpreted as a product of the reservoir deposition. The concentrations of 238U reflect the history of uranium mining in the upper part of the Svratka River catchment. As a consequence, 210Pb radionuclide concentrations cannot be used for establishing a sediment chronology. Concentrations of 137Cs show two marked peaks, the upper of which is attributed to the Chernobyl reactor accident in 1986, and the lower one is attributed to the maximum rate of atomic weapons testing in 1963. From these peaks, mean depositional rates of 3.2 cm year−1 for the time period of 1986–2007 and of 3.4 cm year−1 between 1963 and 1986 are calculated. Based on the known age of the reservoir, which was constructed in 1939, we can also calculate mean depositional rate for the time period of 1939–1963, which is 3.1 cm year−1.  相似文献   

7.
Lacustrine sediments in north-eastern Germany have rarely been used as archives to address the effects of climate change and human impact on both lake ecosystem and landscape evolution for this region. Sacrower See, a hardwater lake located in Brandenburg, provides a unique sediment record covering the past 13,000 years which was used to reconstruct climatic and anthropogenic forcing on lacustrine sedimentation. Time control is provided by 12 AMS 14C dates of terrestrial plant remains, the Laacher See Tephra, and the onset of varve formation in AD 1870 (80 cal. BP). Geochemical (including XRF logging of major elements, CNS analyses as well as δ13Corg and δ15N measurements) and pollen analyses allowed detecting detailed environmental changes in the sediment record. During the Younger Dryas cold phase increased soil erosion and hypolimnetic oxygen depletion enhanced the nutrient supply to the lake water causing eutrophic conditions. The beginning of the Holocene is characterized by large changes in C/N ratios, total sulphur, δ13C of bulk organic matter as well as in K, Si, and Ti, reflecting the response of the lake’s catchment to climatic warming. Reforestation reduced the influx of detrital particles and terrestrial organic matter. The first, rather weak evidence of human impact is documented only in the pollen record at 5,500 cal. BP. However, until 3,200 cal. BP sedimentological and geochemical parameters indicate relatively stable environmental conditions. During periods of intense human impact at around 3,200, 2,800, and 900 cal. BP peaks in Ti and K represent phases of increased soil erosion due to forest clearing during the Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Medieval Times, respectively. In general, greater variation is observed in most variables during these perturbations, indicating less stable environmental conditions. The steady rise of biogenic silica accumulation rates during the Holocene reflects an increasing productivity of Sacrower See until diatoms were outcompeted by other algae during the last centuries. The applied multi-proxy approach fosters the interpretation of the sediment record to reveal a consistent picture of environmental change including environmental factors controlling lake ontogeny and the effects of human impact.  相似文献   

8.
Lake Shkodra (northern Albania, southern Montenegro) is a large (45 km length, 15 km width) and shallow (5 m mean depth) lake, developed on a mainly karstic carbonate substratum. Its recent sedimentary fill (mixed calcareous/siliciclastic clayey silts) was analysed through short gravity cores representing five centuries of environmental archive. A combination of high resolution texture analysis (particle size), magnetic susceptibility, carbon content, and radionuclide activity profiles (210Pb, 137Cs, 241Am) permitted us to detect and date environmental changes, such as the Little Ice Age and the 1962–1963 catastrophic floods. Anthropogenic influences on the watershed, such as damming of the Drin River in the late 1970s, also appear to be recorded. Impacts of known strong earthquakes (1905, 1979), however, could not be clearly detected in the sediment record. The potential of the Shkodra lacustrine archive for paleoseismic investigations on long time intervals (such as Holocene) is discussed. This paper is a preliminary contribution to Shkodra Lake’s Holocene paleolimnology.  相似文献   

9.
The 167 sample lake-water pH-diatom calibration data-set created as part of the Palaeolimnology Programme within the Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) is re-analysed numerically using nine different numerical methods, six based on simple two-way weighted-averaging (WA), and the other three involving Gaussian logit regression (GLR) and maximum-likelihood (ML) calibration, the modern analogue technique, or weighted-averaging partial least-squares regression and calibration. Root mean squared error of prediction and maximum bias were estimated for all nine methods based on 10,000 internal and 10,000 external cross-validations involving a training-set, an optimisation-set, and a test-set. The results show that WA with a monotonic deshrinking spline equals or slightly outperforms WA with linear inverse deshrinking, especially in external cross-validation. Methods that employ tolerance downweighting generally have an inferior performance except when combined with monotonic deshrinking. It appears that simple two-way WA extensively used in SWAP cannot be significantly bettered. Thanks to increased computing power, better software, and more rigorous cross-validations, GLR shows good performance, especially in external cross-validation.  相似文献   

10.
Sedimentological, mineralogical and compositional analyses performed on short gravity cores and long Kullenberg cores from meromictic Montcortès Lake (Pre-Pyrenean Range, NE Spain) reveal large depositional changes during the last 6,000 cal years. The limnological characteristics of this karstic lake, including its meromictic nature, relatively high surface area/depth ratio (surface area ~0.1 km2; z max = 30 m), and steep margins, facilitated deposition and preservation of finely laminated facies, punctuated by clastic layers corresponding to turbidite events. The robust age model is based on 17 AMS 14C dates. Slope instability caused large gravitational deposits during the middle Holocene, prior to 6 ka BP, and in the late Holocene, prior to 1,600 and 1,000 cal yr BP). Relatively shallower lake conditions prevailed during the middle Holocene (6,000–3,500 cal years BP). Afterwards, deeper environments dominated, with deposition of varves containing preserved calcite laminae. Increased carbonate production and lower clastic input occurred during the Iberian-Roman Period, the Little Ice Age, and the twentieth century. Although modulated by climate variability, changes in sediment delivery to the lake reflect modifications of agricultural practices and population pressure in the watershed. Two episodes of higher clastic input to the lake have been identified: 1) 690–1460 AD, coinciding with an increase in farming activity in the area and the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and 2) 1770–1950 AD, including the last phase of the Little Ice Age and the maximum human occupation in late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.  相似文献   

11.
Coastal ecosystems around the world are constantly changing in response to interacting shifts in climate and land and water use by expanding human populations. The development of agricultural and urban areas in South Florida significantly modified its hydrologic regime and influenced rates of environmental change in wetlands and adjacent estuaries. This study describes changes in diatom species composition through time from four sediment cores collected across Florida Bay, for the purposes of detecting periods of major shifts in assemblage structure and identifying major drivers of those changes. We examined the magnitude of diatom assemblage change in consecutive 2-cm samples of the 210Pb-dated cores, producing a record of the past ~130 years. Average assemblage dissimilarity among successive core samples was ~30%, while larger inter-sample and persistent differences suggest perturbations or directional shifts. The earliest significant compositional changes occurred in the late 1800s at Russell Bank, Bob Allen Bank and Ninemile Bank in the central and southwestern Bay, and in the early 1900s at Trout Cove in the northeast. These changes coincided with the initial westward redirection of water from Lake Okeechobee between 1881 and 1894, construction of several canals between 1910 and 1915, and building the Florida Overseas Railroad between 1906 and 1916. Later significant assemblage restructurings occurred in the northeastern and central Bay in the late 1950s, early 1960s and early 1970s, and in the southwestern Bay in the 1980s. These changes coincide with climate cycles driving increased hurricane frequency in the 1960s, followed by a prolonged dry period in the 1970s to late 1980s that exacerbated the effects of drainage operations in the Everglades interior. Changes in the diatom assemblage structure at Trout Cove and Ninemile Bank in the 1980s correspond to documented eutrophication and a large seagrass die-off. A gradual decrease in the abundance of freshwater to brackish water taxa in the cores over ~130 years implies that freshwater deliveries to Florida Bay were much greater prior to major developments on the mainland. Salinity, which was quantitatively reconstructed at these sites, had the greatest effect on diatom communities in Florida Bay, but other factors—often short-lived, natural and anthropogenic in nature—also played important roles in that process. Studying the changes in subfossil diatom communities over time revealed important environmental information that would have been undetected if reconstructing only one water quality variable.  相似文献   

12.
This article addresses Patrick Geddes's relationship with geography and visual education by focusing on his collaboration with the network of the anarchist geographers Élie, Élisée, and Paul Reclus. Drawing on empirical archival research, it contributes to the current debates on geographies of anarchist education and on geographic teaching. The main argument is that the collaboration between Geddes and the Recluses inaugurated specific strategies of multisensorial geographic education that were not limited to the sight, and that questioned and relativized the uniqueness of the observer's standpoint through devices like the Hollow Globe. Focusing on apparatuses like the Outlook Tower's geographic exposition and the Valley Section, it shows in which ways Geddes engaged with Élisée Reclus's critique of representation and geography as a visual discipline.  相似文献   

13.
This study focuses on the possibilities and the limits of a prospective GIS land cover modelling applied to two case studies (France and Spain). The methodology, based on available GIS tools, consists of using earlier land cover maps and relevant environmental factors (calibration data) to model actual, known land cover to validate the model. The model aggregates Markov chain analysis for time prediction and multi‐critera evaluation, multi‐objective evaluation and cellular automata to perform spatial contiguity of modelled land cover scores. The first results give an accurate, pixel by pixel prediction rate of approximately 75%. An important issue of this study consists of analysing prediction residues to improve the model.  相似文献   

14.
We analysed a 42 cm long sediment record from Lej da la Tscheppa, a high-altitude lake (2,616 m a.s.l.) in the Upper Engadine valley (Switzerland) for subfossil diatoms, chironomids and pollen. The chronology of the top 21 cm of the record was established using 210Pb analysis using a constant-rate-of-supply model, and validated with 137Cs measurements and the content of spheroidal carbonaceous particles. A tentative chronology for the lower part of the core was obtained through extrapolation of the sedimentation rates in the uppermost part of the record. Pollen assemblages in the record reflect regional changes in forestation and land-use patterns in the Upper Engadine valley and show no evidence of significant local human activity in the lake’s catchment. Diatom assemblages record a distinct increase in planktonic taxa since the early 19th century, suggesting a decrease in the duration of ice-cover. In contrast, chironomid assemblages remained stable during a large part of the record. We applied an established chironomid-based July air temperature transfer function and a newly developed diatom-based spring air temperature transfer function to reconstruct past seasonal air temperature changes at Lej da la Tscheppa. The reconstructions indicate a diatom-inferred warming trend in spring temperatures during the past ca. 400 years, whereas chironomid-inferred summer temperatures suggest a slight cooling trend. These biota-based reconstructions are in good agreement with the centennial-scale temperature trend in an independent reconstruction of regional temperatures in the Upper Engadine region based on instrumental records and documentary proxy evidence from the Alps. Our results suggest that, in high-altitude lakes, independent chironomid- and diatom-based seasonal temperature reconstruction is possible and can be successfully used to track seasonal temperature trends.  相似文献   

15.
Surface and fossil pollen samples were collected to reconstruct the vegetation and environment since 30.7 cal ka BP in the Lake Balikun Basin, northwest China. This record demonstrates that the region was occupied by four vegetation communities during the interval 30.7–9.0 cal ka BP, including desert steppe (30.7–25.1 cal ka BP), Amaranthaceae-Asteraceae desert (25.1–17.7 cal ka BP), Amaranthaceae-Artemisia-Asteraceae desert (17.7–12.8 cal ka BP) and Amaranthaceae desert (12.8–9.0 cal ka BP), corresponding to relatively humid, the coldest and driest, cold and dry, and colder and drier conditions, respectively. The reconstructions of vegetation and environmental changes around Lake Balikun do not support the interpretation of an extremely humid LGM in Central Asia, challenging the cold-moist (glacial), warm-dry (interglacial) pattern of late Quaternary environmental change in Central Asia. The Last Glacial Maximum was cold and dry, and similarly harsh conditions continued into the early Holocene.  相似文献   

16.
This paper reviews the past history of comparisons between lacustrine records of chironomid-inferred summer temperatures (CI-T) and peat bog-derived records of surface wetness (BSW), and develops a new summer temperature record for the mid-late Holocene for Northern Britain from Bigland Tarn, Cumbria. The CI-T reconstruction is well dated, and corresponds well with the only two other CI-T records for Britain. Comparisons are made with BSW records from northern Britain, which show consistent similarities over centennial to millennial timescales, demonstrating that at this resolution cooler summers equated with a wetter climate, at least during the mid- to late-Holocene.  相似文献   

17.
18.
The Qinling Mountain Range (33°–34°30′N, 107°–111°E; 3,767 m a.s.l.) lies south of the Chinese Loess Plateau and functions as the boundary between ‘north’ and ‘south’ China. Taibai Mountain (33°41′–34°10′N, 107°19′–107°58′E; 3,767 m a.s.l.) is the central massif and highest part of the range and is the highest mountain in eastern and central China, east of 105°E. It is also one of two mountains higher than the modern climatic timberline and the only one where high alpine lakes (>2,500 m a.s.l.) exist in eastern and central China. Sediments were recovered from Foye Chi (33°57′N, 107°44′E; 3,410 m a.s.l.), a small lake on the southern slope of the mountain, and measured for magnetic properties. Chronological control was achieved with AMS 14C dating. Combined with analyses of particle-size, TOC, C/N, δ13Corg and pollen in these sediments, and magnetic properties of catchment soils, the mineral-magnetic data reveal late Holocene palaeoenvironmental changes on the high-altitude southern slope of Taibai Mountain. Climate gradually ameliorated about 2,300 cal yr BP and warm and wet conditions occurred afterwards, culminating from 1,700 to 1,510 cal yr BP. The climate began to deteriorate at 1,510 cal yr BP, but was still warmer and wetter than present until ~663 cal yr BP. Cool, arid conditions peaked and were cooler and drier than the present at 663–290 cal yr BP, coincident with the Little Ice Age. Climate became warmer and more humid again after 290 cal yr BP. Data from these less anthropologically-disturbed alpine-lake sediments provide a record of late Holocene palaeoenvironmental change that supplements information from historical documents and literature for eastern and central China.  相似文献   

19.
The construction of regional advantage has recently been emphasized by scholars as a new way of increasing firms’ competitiveness in a globalizing and learning economy. This article compares the construction of regional advantage and the development paths of specific industries in two different types of non-metropolitan regions, La Pocatière in Canada and Tromsø in Norway. The authors observe a higher level of industrial dynamism in La Pocatière than in Tromsø. They find four explanations for this variation: (1) a narrower regional innovation system (RIS) in Tromsø; (2) the fact that the target industry in Tromsø (marine biotechnology) is, in general, more difficult to develop outside metropolitan regions than the diverse mechanical engineering industry found in La Pocatière; (3) a biased focus on the development of research-based knowledge and academic spin-offs in Tromsø compared with a more varied set of strategies used in La Pocatière; and (4) La Pocatière's location in proximity to the Quebec metropolitan region.  相似文献   

20.
The dynamics of land use in Russkii Island is considered for the period from 2007 to 2014, and some issues of its future development are analyzed. The areas of lands of different categories and the maps of land use on the Sapernyi Peninsula are provided for different time spans. It is established that the implementation of the program of the preparation of Vladivostok for APEC Summit 2012 led to a substantial change in the land use pattern in Russkii Island: the area not involved in the economic turnover decreased by 5.09%, the zone of production, engineering and transport infrastructure increased by a factor of 21.5, and the share of lands for recreational purposes increased more than twice. It is shown that recreational activities implying a decrease in the share of lands not drawn into the economic turnover by more than a factor of 5 must become the dominant kind of land use (according to the program of development of Vladivostok). Attention is focused on the issue related to the creation of the territory of priority socioeconomic development in Russkii Island through the use of private-state partnership mechanisms. It is pointed out that the implementation of the development plans for the island is delayed, in spite of the legislative and financial support from federal and regional authorities. Emphasis is placed on the need to develop the program of comprehensive substantiation, modeling and forecasting of the development of Russkii Island in the interests of the sustainable functioning of the natural-economic system.  相似文献   

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