论水库要素与水库地震的关系

本文利用一元回归、多元逐步回归及灰色系统理论的关联度分析了30个诱发震例,证明水库要素综合影响参数E与水库诱发地震最大震级的相关性最高。利用E与震级的关系对30座水库的诱发震级进行了预测。 文中还对预测震级进行了误差分析,发现容许误差系数为20％(震级误差小于0.7级)时,成功率达63％。作者认为对水库诱发地震初步预测来说。这种预测办法和结果是可以接受的。     

水库诱发地震预测方法研究

利用模糊聚类分析和灰色聚类分析提出了预测水库诱发地震上限震级的方法，并以新丰江水库地震为例进行了讨论。研究表明，预测的上限震级与实际发震情况相符     

水库诱发地震预测方法探讨

在系统整理和分析已有的预测方法的基础上,根据预测方法的特点将其归为定性预测、定量预测和基于监测的预测法三大类。详细介绍了震级上限法、经验类比法、高震级b值与低震级b值之比预测法、加卸载响应比法、概率预测法、模糊综合评判法和综合影响参数法,并对其优点、存在的问题和发展方向进行了讨论。认为由于目前对水库诱发地震机理认识的不足,水库诱发地震问题的复杂多样性及震例的有限性,当前的预测方法均未能较好地对水库诱发地震的实际情况进行合理的评估,应加强从水库诱震机理的角度对预测方法进行研究分析,在实际应用时应考虑水库的实际情况,结合多种预测方法,并基于水库监测数据的综合分析进行预测。     

福建尤溪街面水库诱发地震潜在危险性预测

福建尤溪街面水库已于2007年2月下闸蓄水,蓄水后是否会诱发地震？如果会诱发地震,它能诱发多大震级的地震一直是人们关心的问题。本文根据库区主要断裂活动、地质构造背景和国内外已发生水库诱发地震震例资料,结合尤溪街面水库库区的具体情况,应用概率预测法,综合影响参数预测法,两级模糊评判法,发育断裂长度预测震级法和历史地震最高震级预测法等方法,对街面水库诱震危险性和可能诱发的最大震级进行研究。     

长江三峡工程庙河—奉节库段水库诱震危险性分析

本文分析了三峡工程水库诱发地震的诱震条件,认为庙河～奉节库段诱震危险性较大。同时,根据世界上44座诱震水库的统计资料,考虑库深、库容、应力场、断层活动性及介质条件五个因素,用概率统计法对发震强度进行了预测;从发生构造型水库地震角度,对水库地震的震级上限进行了估算。预测了可能的发震地段,结果是:该库段存在诱发Ms≥5级地震的可能性,但最高上限不会超过6级。可能的发震地段为巴东方、荒口、水田坝～狮子岩和神天观等地.     

水库诱发地震最大震级的预测

水库蓄水诱发地震虽然是水利工程建设伴生的少见现象,但有时会诱发6级以上地震,加之震中距小,震源浅,成为水利工程抗震设防的重要因素。已有震例还证明,水库规模越大,诱震的可能性越大,诱震的最大震级Mmax(以下简写M)也越高。我们曾提出用水库的“综合影响参数E”来表征水库的“规模”,并给出了M～E回归关系式。本文在补充了部分震例资料,并把M和E以及最大库深Hmax(以下简写H)都视为随机量,经模式识别的分类判别后把所用震例分为两组(第一组为M≥4.5的21个震例:第二组为全部37个震例),把变量E取为确定量或取为随机量和把变量E、lnH取为两个随机量与M进行了回归。回归结果:第一组的双随机量(M、E)模型的回归标准差为口σ_M=0.610,变异系数V=0.118,三随机量(M,E,H)σ_M=0.576。V=0.111;第二组的双随机量的σ_M=1.028,V=0.234,三随机量时σ_M=1.032,V=0.235。说明第一组三随机量模型对可能发生M≥4.5级的新建水库的最大诱震震级的预测是可用的。     

水库地震主震发生时间的预测

水利工程对水库地震的抗震设防要求事先对水为地震进行预测。预测内容包括蓄水后诱发地震的危险性（可能性、）最大震级、最大震的地占紧及不库地震对场址地震动参数的影响。除主震时间的预测外，本文第一作者都曾提出过初步的预测方法。本文认为，水库地震前震波速比异常、非线性灰色模型以及前震系列回归等方法，是预测主震时间的有前途的方法。     

论永顺ML3.2级地震与高家坝水库的关系

从高家坝水库的基本特征出发,结合库区和坝址区的地质与构造、ML3.2级地震前后水库的水位变化情况、震时村民的反应和周边台站地震记录波形进行讨论,初步认为ML3.2级地震属水库诱发岩溶塌陷地震.同时根据水库的基本参数对可能发生的最大地震震级进行了预测,如果发生构造地震,最大震级为ML4.3.但库区经过多年载荷与排放,地层...     

层次分析方法在水库诱发地震预测中的应用

本文介绍了层次分析方法的原理及方法并建立了预测水库诱发地震强度的层次结构模型。通过构造判断矩阵并求解其特征向量。给出了各诱震因素相对预测目标的重要性排序权值，以用于预测水库诱发地震的震级。最后，计算了一组水库地震震例并与实际结果进行了比较。     

水库地震烈度衰减的研究

水库地震由于具有震源浅、震级小但破坏较同等级的天然地震重的特点,其地震烈度衰减关系在水库地震灾害预测中有着十分重要的研究意义。然而,由于水库地震事件数量少,历史震例往往缺乏地面烈度调查资料,这给研究工作带来了相当大的难度。为了解决资料不足的问题,文中采用聚类分析的方法,从丰富的天然地震中选择可与水库地震灾害类比的震例,把其烈度资料引入衰减模型进行回归分析,得到了新的地震烈度衰减关系;并与已有的研究成果和天然地震的烈度衰减进行比较,证明了这种方法具有合理性,所得到的水库地震烈度在近场普遍比天然地震烈度高,但由于加入了天然地震资料使得结果比已有水库地震烈度衰减慢且震中烈度稍低     

Use of Neural network to predict the peak ground accelerations and pseudo spectral accelerations for Mexican Inslab and Interplate Earthquakes

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is explored to predict peak ground accelerations (PGA) and pseudospectral acceleration (SA) for Mexican inslab and interplate earthquakes. A total of 277 and 418 seismic records with two horizontal components for inslab and interplate earthquakes, respectively, are used to train the ANN models by using an ANN with a feed-forward architecture with a back-propagation learning algorithm. Both ANN with single and two hidden layers are considered. For comparison purposes, the PGA and SA values predicted by the trained ANN models are compared with those estimated with attenuation relations or ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The comparison indicates that the predicted PGA and SA values by the trained ANN models, in general, follow the trends predicted by the GMPEs. However, an extensive verification of the trained models must be conducted before they can be used for seismic hazard and risk analysis since, on occasion, the PGA and SA values predicted by the trained ANN models depart from the behaviour observed from the actual records.     

The application of cellular automata to the erosion of landforms

Two approaches to modelling surface erosion are described which can be used to explain the development of geomorphological features. The first approach uses non-linear wave theory and shows how surface gradient discontinuities can arise as the erosion of an initially smooth surface proceeds. For isotropic erosion, surface shapes may be predicted by a simple application of the Huyghens wavefront construction and Snell's law at media boundaries. A second approach uses a computational cellular method. The general shapes predicted by the computer simulations are shown to agree with those determined from the wave approach. The application of the cellular method to problems of geomorphological interest are discussed.     

第23太阳周黑子相对数的峰值、峰期以及结束期的预测

Two parameters,the smoothed sunspot numbers in the eleventh month during rising phase of the current cycle and the length month of the minimum period (R<14),are selected to predict the maximum-value of sunspot number of cycle 23 in this paper. The predicted maximum-values of smoothed sunspot number are 115<Ri<149 and 114<Ri<146 also predicted by statistical method. The peak-time will be from September,1999 to March,2000,and the end-time will be from August,2006 to April,2008.     

1966～1976华北大震高潮回顾性预测——纪念唐山大震34周年

1966～1976年华北的邢台大震、渤海大震以及唐山大震皆可由以29 a为周期的三性分布求出其发震年份.至于发震地区可由"静中动判据"求出是唐山地区和渤海莱州湾地区.邢台大震的位置可由立交模式来推求.1966～1976年这次大震高潮后由三性分布后延推知在2016～2017年华北可能会再次发生7级以上大震.     

The vibrational characteristics of a twelve-storey steel frame building

The Ralph M. Parsons World Headquarters building, a twelve-storey steel frame structure, was subjected to a series of forced vibration tests. The natural frequencies, three-dimensional mode shapes and damping coefficients of nine modes of vibration were determined. Other features of this investigation included the study of non-linearities associated with increasing levels of response, detailed measurements of the deformation of the first floor and the ground surrounding the structure, and measurements of strain in one of the columns of the structure during forced excitation. The dynamic characteristics of the building determined by these tests are compared to those predicted by a finite element model of the structure. The properties of primarily translational modes are predicted reasonably well, but adequate prediction of torsional motions is not obtained. The comparison between measured and predicted strains suggests that estimates of stress determined from finite element analyses of buildings might be within 25 per cent of those experienced by the structure for a known excitation.     

The impact of field-survey characteristics on surface-relatedmultiple attenuation

Field‐survey characteristics can have an important impact on the quality of multiples predicted by surface‐related multiple elimination (SRME) algorithms. This paperexamines the effects of three particular characteristics: in‐line spatial sampling, source stability, and cable feathering. Inadequate spatial sampling causes aliasing artefacts. These can be reduced by f–k filtering at the expense of limiting the bandwidth in the predicted multiples. Source‐signature variations create artefacts in predicted multiples due to spatial discontinuities. Variations from a well‐behaved airgun array produced artefacts having an rms amplitude about 26 dB below the rms amplitude of multiples predicted with no variations. Cable feathering has a large impact on the timingerrors in multiples predicted by 2D SRME when it is applied in areas having cross dip. All these problems can be reduced by a combination of better survey design, use of advanced data‐acquisition technologies, and additional data‐processing steps.     

火灾下轴压钢柱破坏的判断准则分析

介绍了火灾下轴压钢柱的破坏准则。利用数值分析的方法,根据不同的破坏准则计算火灾下轴压钢柱的临界温度。火灾下钢材的力学性能分别参照EC3和CECS选取。通过对临界温度计算结果的对比分析,发现：①2个变形准则给出的结果基本相同,但以变形准则为判断依据往往会高估构件的临界温度;②应用变形准则需具备一定条件,即火灾下构件的破坏形式为整体失稳或截面强度破坏,若构件发生局部屈曲,变形准则不适用;③同一破坏准则下,火灾下钢材性能分别按照EC3和CECS选取,临界温度计算结果相差超过200℃。最后,给出临界温度设计曲线的上、下限,以方便工程应用。     

Validation of IRI-2007 against TEC observations during low solar activity over Indian sector

Published values of Total Electron Content (TEC) measured by ATS-6 are used to assess the latest available IRI-2007 model during solar minimum over Indian sector covering equatorial to low-mid-latitudes stations. The study reveals that during all seasons and at all locations, in general, the TEC predicted by NeQuick and IRI01-corr options provided in the IRI-2007 model shows much better agreement with the TEC observations as compared to those generated by IRI-2001.option. TEC predicted using NeQuick option found to be little more closer to the observation except at equatorial station during daytime, while IRI-2001 option highly overestimates the TEC in all seasons and times.     

Building pounding damage observed in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake

Building pounding damages observed in the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake are described in this paper. The extent and severity of pounding damage is presented based on a street survey of Christchurch's central business district. Six damage severity levels and two confidence levels are defined to classify the observed damage. Generally, pounding was observed to be a secondary effect. However, over 6% of the total surveyed buildings were observed to have significant or greater pounding damage. Examples of typical and exceptional pounding damage are identified and discussed. Extensive pounding damage was observed in low‐rise unreinforced masonry buildings that were constructed with no building separation. Modern buildings were also endangered by pounding when building separations were infilled with solid architectural flashings. The damage caused by these flashings was readily preventable. The observed pounding damage is compared to that observed in the September 2010 Darfield earthquake to explore if the damage could have been predicted. It is found that pounding prone buildings can be identified with reasonable accuracy by comparing configurations to characteristics previously noted by researchers. However, detailed pounding damage patterns cannot currently be precisely predicted by these methods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江中游夏季降水场预报技术研究

经SVD分析,截取足够多的预报场和因子场时间系数,使其相互关系代表两场的大尺度联系,预报场时间系数与其奇异向量线性组合估计场能反映原场主要特征.借助最优化技术,选择合理的系数,建立预测公式,由因子场时间系数预测预报场时间系数,同时订正预报场时间系数心a₁ a₂ a_N本身的误差和反演过程中分析误差造成的场格点趋势预测的误差.最后将预测的预报场时间系数和对应奇异向量反演为整个场的预报.预报过程重点考虑可预报的大尺度变化,滤去不可预报的小扰动,依据两场主要耦合关系,预测预报场未来的主要变化.