Studying the effects of vortices flowing around seamounts on ice properties from satellite microwave data

The changes are considered in the computation and map representation of the scattering index (SI) of thick first-year ice identified from the MTVZA-GYa radiometer data. For the first time improved ice SI maps enabled detecting the zones of the low values of sea ice SI which were steadily formed in the same areas over the Lomonosov and Gakkel ridges. It is demonstrated that the intense local ice drift formed under the influence of the vortices flowing around seamounts, may be a reason for the formation of such zones. The cases are considered when the zones of the low values of ice SI were of synoptic scale (up to 1200 km) and could have been the result of the independent influence of the vortices flowing around seamounts and strong surface wind. The utility of new SI maps is noted for monitoring the areas where the vortices flowing around seamounts may considerably modify propeties of the sea ice cover.     

Identification of the age and compression areas of sea ice from the AMSU satellite microwave radiometer data

A physical substantiation of the new quantitative index of sea ice scattering (Bukharov index) computed from the all-weather AMSU satellite radiometer data is considered. A high sensitivity of the scattering index to the age, thickness, and hummocking of ice in the areas of its compression is demonstrated. The daily maps of the sea ice scattering index in the Arctic are plotted. The analysis of maps enabled to reveal a new phenomenon, a steady existence of various-scale areas of short-range deformations of the sea ice in the Arctic. A new technique is proposed of the identification of age, relative thickness, and compression areas of ice using the maps of minimum and maximum values of the scattering index.     

Identification of ice properties in the Sea of Okhotsk using scattering index maps

Considered are simplified model concepts allowing the use of the AMSU microwave radiometer measurement data and the maps of scattering index (SI) compiled by them for estimating the variability of the thickness of thin and young ice as well as for obtaining principally new satellite information about the areas of the possible hummocking of ice cover. Demonstrated is the essential influence of deep cyclones on the ice thickness reduction due to the ice thawing from below in the areas where waves are driven under the ice from the warmer, not frozen part of the water area. Carried out is a comparative analysis of sea ice properties identified from SI maps and the traditional maps of ice condition analysis. Noted is a possibility of the useful application of all-weather SI maps for monitoring sea ice properties in the areas of their rapid variability formed during the periods of a deep cyclone passage.     

Linking Arctic sea‐ice and atmospheric circulation anomalies on interannual and decadal timescales

Abstract

The relationship between Arctic sea‐ice concentration anomalies, particularly those associated with the “Great Salinity Anomaly” of 1968–1982, and atmospheric circulation anomalies north of 45°N is investigated. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses are performed on winter Arctic ice concentration from 1954 to 1990, sea level pressure and 500‐hPa heights from 1947 to 1994, and 850‐hPa temperatures from 1963 to 1994. Variability on both interannual and decadal timescales is apparent in the time series of the leading winter EOFs of all variables. The first EOF of winter sea‐ice concentration was found to characterize the patterns of ice variability associated with the Great Salinity Anomaly in the northern North Atlantic from 1968–82. Spatial maps of temporal correlation coefficients between the time series of the first EOF of winter sea‐ice concentration and the winter atmospheric anomaly fields are calculated at lags of 0 and ±7 year. Maximum correlations were found to exist when the time‐series of this ice EOF 1 leads the atmospheric anomaly fields by one year. A particularly interesting result is the connection between the presence of ice anomalies in the Greenland and Barents Seas and subsequent pressure anomalies of the same sign over the Irminger Basin and the Canadian Arctic. The main emphasis of the paper is to identify connections between Arctic sea‐ice and atmospheric circulation anomalies at interannual time‐scales.     

Arctic sea ice and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Arctic sea ice responds to atmospheric forcing in primarily a top-down manner, whereby near-surface air circulation and temperature govern motion, formation, melting, and accretion. As a result, concentrations of sea ice vary with phases of many of the major modes of atmospheric variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, until this present study, variability of sea ice by phase of the leading mode of atmospheric intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has been found to modify Arctic circulation and temperature, remained largely unstudied. Anomalies in daily change in sea ice concentration were isolated for all phases of the real-time multivariate MJO index during both summer (May–July) and winter (November–January) months. The three principal findings of the current study were as follows. (1) The MJO projects onto the Arctic atmosphere, as evidenced by statistically significant wavy patterns and consistent anomaly sign changes in composites of surface and mid-tropospheric atmospheric fields. (2) The MJO modulates Arctic sea ice in both summer and winter seasons, with the region of greatest variability shifting with the migration of the ice margin poleward (equatorward) during the summer (winter) period. Active regions of coherent ice concentration variability were identified in the Atlantic sector on days when the MJO was in phases 4 and 7 and the Pacific sector on days when the MJO was in phases 2 and 6, all supported by corresponding anomalies in surface wind and temperature. During July, similar variability in sea ice concentration was found in the North Atlantic sector during MJO phases 2 and 6 and Siberian sector during MJO phases 1 and 5, also supported by corresponding anomalies in surface wind. (3) The MJO modulates Arctic sea ice regionally, often resulting in dipole-shaped patterns of variability between anomaly centers. These results provide an important first look at intraseasonal variability of sea ice in the Arctic.     

Tide-induced ice cover deformations on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island

The ice drift data obtained with the Furuno radar using a special methodology simultaneously at seven fixed points around the Molikpaq oil-drilling platform on the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island in the period from May 14 to 28, 2003 are analyzed. It is shown that at different distances from the shore significant variations are observed both in the alongshore and, especially, transverse components of the tidal seaice drift, which are responsible for the ice cover deformation, whose indices are of a substantial magnitude. The divergence has the maximum positive values (the ice opening is observed) at comparatively low drift velocities of southern bearings soon after the tidal flow direction changed. The ice cover compression was accordingly observed under opposite conditions. The dependence of deformation indices on the tidal cycle phase is well agreed with the results earlier obtained at the coastal Odoptu radar station (RS), where the measurements were carried out using a similar methodology under alike physico-geographic conditions. A steady character of the results obtained allows forecasting the tide-induced ice cover extension and compression, which is of a practical value for providing the ship operations in the region of the Molikpaq platform in the ice season.     

Distribution of level ice draft in the near-pole area of the Arctic Basin at the beginning of the fall season

Empirical distributions of the draft of level ice of different age in the near-pole area of the Arctic Basin were calculated for the beginning of the fall season. The empirical distributions were approximated by analytical expressions. The average values of the draft of level second-year and multiyear ice were obtained. The variability of the average draft of level ice under the influence of thermal and dynamic factors is shown for several years from 1988 to 1998.     

从2011/2012和2015/2016年冬季大气环流异常看北极海冰以及前期夏季北极大气环流异常的作用

利用美国NCEP/NCAR、欧洲中心ERA-Interim再分析资料,以及英国哈得来中心海冰密集度资料,通过诊断分析和数值模拟试验,研究了2011/2012和2015/2016年两个冬季大气环流异常的主要特征和可能原因。结果表明,尽管热带太平洋海温背景截然不同（分别为弱的拉尼娜事件和强厄尔尼诺事件）,但这两个冬季西伯利亚高压均异常偏强,自1979年以来其强度分别排第1和第5位。前期秋季北极海冰异常偏少是导致这两个冬季西伯利亚高压偏强的主要原因。更为重要的是,前期夏季北冰洋表面反气旋风场,以及其上空对流层中、低层平均气温偏高,加强了北极海冰偏少对冬季大气变率的负反馈,进一步促进了西伯利亚高压的加强,从而有利于东亚地区冬季阶段性强严寒的出现。因此,夏季北极大气环流的动力和热力状态不仅影响夏、秋季北极海冰,而且对海冰偏少影响亚洲冬季气候变率有重要调节作用。2015/2016年冬季强厄尔尼诺事件并不能掩盖来自北极海冰和大气环流的影响。      

北极海冰融化影响东亚冬季天气和气候的研究进展以及学术争论焦点问题

北极历来是影响东亚冬季天气、气候的关键区域之一。北极表面增暖要比全球平均快2~3倍,即所谓北极的放大效应。随着全球增暖的持续以及北极海冰的持续融化,北极的生态环境正在发生显著的变化,进而可能对北半球中、低纬度的天气、气候产生影响。本文概述了有关北极海冰融化影响冬季东亚天气、气候的主要研究进展,特别是自2000年以来,北极海冰异常偏少影响东亚冬季气候变率以及极端严寒事件的可能途径、存在的科学问题,以及学术界的争论焦点。秋、冬季节是北极海冰快速形成时期,此时北极海冰对大气环流的影响要强于大气对海冰的影响。近二十年来的研究结果表明,北极海冰异常偏少,不仅影响北冰洋局地的气温和降水变化,而且通过复杂的相互作用和反馈过程,对北半球中、低纬度的天气、气候产生影响。北极海冰通过以下两个可能机制来影响东亚冬季的天气、气候:（1）北极海冰的负反馈机制;（2）由海冰异常偏少引起的平流层-对流层相互作用机制。秋、冬季节北极海冰持续异常偏少,特别是,巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰异常偏少,既可以加强冬季西伯利亚高压（东亚冬季风偏强）,也可以导致冬季风偏弱。导致海冰影响不确定性的部分原因是:（1）夏季北极大气环流状态影响北极海冰异常偏少对冬季大气环流的反馈效果;（2）冬季大气环流对北极海冰异常偏少响应的位置、强度不同造成的。秋、冬季节北极海冰持续异常偏少,在适宜的条件下（例如,前期夏季北极大气环流的热力和动力条件,有利于加强北极海冰偏少对冬季大气的反馈作用）,可以激发出有利于冬季亚洲大陆极端严寒过程的大气环流异常。目前学术界争论焦点主要集中在以下两个方面:（1）关于北极增暖、北极海冰融化对中纬度区域影响的争论;（2）关于1980年代后期以来,冬季欧亚大陆表面气温呈现降温趋势的原因。目前,有关北极海冰融化影响冬季欧亚大陆次季节变化以及极端天气、气候事件的过程和机制,我们认知非常有限,亟需开展深入细致的研究。     

Distinct Modes of Winter Arctic Sea Ice Motion and Their Associations with Surface Wind Variability

Using monthly mean sea ice velocity data obtained from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) for the period of 1979–1998 and the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset (1960–2002), we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of the leading sea ice motion mode (based on a complex correlation matrix constructed of normalized sea ice motion velocity) and their association with sea level pressure (SLP) and the predominant modes of surface wind field variability. The results indicate that the leadi...     

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.     

Effects of variability of sea ice transport through the Fram Strait on the intensity of the Atlantic deep circulation

Results from an ice-ocean coupled model are used to investigate the impact of long-term variability in sea ice transport at the Fram Strait on the intensity of the Atlantic deep circulation. An increase (or decrease) in sea ice transport through the Fram Strait leads to a stronger (or weaker) deep circulation in the Atlantic. Change in the sea ice transport is accompanied by a salinity anomaly in the surface layer of the Arctic Ocean. Such an anomaly could inversely affect the Atlantic circulation once it reaches deep water formation regions. If the Canadian Archipelago is closed, the anomaly is subsequently transported through the Fram Strait, and counters the initial changes in the Atlantic deep circulation. On the other hand, if the Canadian Archipelago is open, some of the anomaly is transported to the Canadian Archipelago, and the initial change in the Atlantic deep circulation persists. In the Arctic Ocean basin, the time scale and path of the salinity anomalys propagation depends on the large-scale flow at the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Our results suggest that the salinity anomaly transport and its propagation pathway out of the Arctic Ocean are important determinants of the role of sea ice transport variability through the Fram Strait in controlling the intensity of the Atlantic deep circulation.     

Integrated Analysis of Physical and Biological Pan-Arctic Change

We investigate the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965–1995 through examination of 86 regionally-dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data. To our knowledge, this is the first semi-quantitative analysis of Arctic data that spans multiple disciplines and geographic regions. Although visual inspection and Principal Component Analysis of the data collection indicate that Arctic change is complex, three patterns are evident. The temporal pattern of change calculated as the first Principal Component (PC1), representing 23% of the variance, has a single regime-like shift near 1989 based on a large number of time series, which include projections from a strong stratospheric vortex in spring, the Arctic Oscillation, sea ice declines in several regions, and changes in selected mammal, bird, and fish populations. The pattern based on the second Principal Component (PC2) shows interdecadal variability over the Arctic Ocean Basin north of 70° N; this variability is observed in surface wind fields, sea ice, and ocean circulation, with the most recent shift near 1989. Contributions to PC1 cover a larger geographic area than PC2, and are consistent with a recent amplification of the interdecadal mode due to polar processes such as increased incidence of cold stratospheric temperature anomalies or internal feedbacks. Most land processes – such as snowcover, greenness, Siberian runoff, permafrost temperatures – and certain subarctic sea ice records show a third pattern of a linear trend over the 30-year interval, which is qualitatively different than either PC1 or PC2. These variables are from lower latitudes and often integrate the atmospheric or oceanographic influence over several seasons including summer. That more than half of the data collection projects strongly onto one of the three patterns, suggests that the Arctic is responding as a coherent system over the previous three decades. However, no single index or class of observations exclusively tracks change in the Arctic, a conclusion that emerges from a multivariate analysis.     

秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响

利用海冰资料、中国地面气候资料、环流特征量资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了秋季北极海冰变化对中国冬季平均气温、日气温变率以及异常低温天气的影响。分析结果表明,秋季北极海冰异常偏多年中国冬季常为暖冬;异常偏少年中国冬季常为冷冬,且异常低温天气出现频率更高,常发生低温灾害事件。秋季北极海冰通过影响后期的北半球极涡、东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压进而影响中国冬季的平均气温,且通过影响冬季异常强西伯利亚高压的出现频次,影响中国冬季异常低温天气的发生频次。合成分析结果表明,秋季北极海冰异常偏少年的冬季,中国以北亚欧大陆高纬度的偏北风较强,且中国及其以北的中高纬度地区空气异常偏冷,导致极地和高纬度的冷空气易向南爆发,造成中国冬季气温偏低,异常低温天气频发。     

Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export

Freshwater (FW) leaves the Arctic Ocean through sea-ice export and the outflow of low-salinity upper ocean water. Whereas the variability of the sea-ice export is known to be mainly caused by changes in the local wind and the thickness of the exported sea ice, the mechanisms that regulate the variability of the liquid FW export are still under investigation. To better understand these mechanisms, we present an analysis of the variability of the liquid FW export from the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950–2007, using a simulation from an energy and mass conserving global ocean–sea ice model, coupled to an Energy Moisture Balance Model of the atmosphere, and forced with daily winds from the NCEP reanalysis. Our results show that the simulated liquid FW exports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the Fram Strait lag changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Arctic by 1 and 6 years, respectively. The variability of the liquid FW exports is caused by changes in the cyclonicity of the atmospheric forcing, which cause a FW redistribution in the Arctic through changes in Ekman transport in the Beaufort Gyre. This in turn causes changes in the sea surface height (SSH) and salinity upstream of the CAA and Fram Strait, which affect the velocity and salinity of the outflow. The SSH changes induced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation are found to explain a large part of the variance of the liquid FW export, while the local wind plays a much smaller role. We also show that during periods of increased liquid FW export from the Arctic, the strength of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced and the ocean heat transport into the Arctic is increased. These results are particularly relevant in the context of global warming, as climate simulations predict an increase in the liquid FW export from the Arctic during the twenty-first century.     

A year-round monitoring of sea ice properties from the AMSU satellite microwave radiometer data

A new approach to the year-round daily monitoring of sea ice properties based on the multispectral measurements of the AMSU satellite radiometer is considered. It is revealed that the increase in the values of the sea ice scattering index and its anomalously high variability are observed during the warm period of the year. The analysis of main reasons influencing the variations of the sea ice scattering index in different seasons is carried out. The recommendations are proposed on the identification of ice properties on the maps of the sea ice scattering index plotted for the warm, cold, and transition periods.     

Arctic Sea‐Ice extent and anomalies, 1953–1984

Abstract

A study is presented of the seasonal and interannual variability of Arctic sea‐ice extent over the 32‐year period 1953–84. The data set used consists of monthly sea‐ice concentration values given on a 1°‐latitude grid and represents a 7‐year extension of the 25‐year data set analysed by Walsh and Johnson (1979). By focussing attention on the variability in seven distinct subregions that circumscribe the polar region, a number of interesting spatial patterns emerge in the regional seasonal cycles and anomalies of ice coverage. For example, the time‐scale of the smoothed anomaly fluctuations varies from a 4–6 year cycle in the western Arctic (e.g. the Beaufort Sea) to a decadal one in the eastern Arctic (e.g. the Barents Sea). Also, in agreement with earlier studies, a significant out‐of‐phase relationship was found between the 25‐month smoothed anomalies in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea region and the Greenland Sea. It is proposed that this behaviour is related to atmospheric pressure anomalies associated with the see‐saw in winter air temperature between northern Europe and western Greenland. Finally, a particularly large 9‐year ice anomaly in the Greenland Sea that was centred on 1968 appears to have evolved into a substantial 4‐year Labrador Sea anomaly that peaked in 1972. Both of these anomalies coincided with the passage of the “ Great Salinity Anomaly”, which traversed cyclonically around the subpolar gyre in the northern North Atlantic during the period 1968–82.     

Diagnostic simulations of the summer circulation in the Canadian arctic archipelago

Abstract

Gridded fields of potential temperature and salinity, interpolated to the time of minimal ice coverage, are constructed for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago based on archived data. In order to overcome the large variations in the horizontal coverage of the observations, the gridding is performed in an iterative procedure where the horizontal correlation scales depend on the data coverage as well as on the flow field. The mean flow corresponding to the temperature and salinity fields are calculated with a diagnostic numerical ocean model. The simulations show that the relative flow through the different straits depends on the elevation difference from the Arctic Ocean to Baffin Bay, and on the density distribution and baroclinic pressure gradients. A 5‐cm increase in the Arctic‐Baffin elevation difference can double the transport. Mean values of the summer flow are a total transport of 0.9 Sv, with 34% flowing through Barrow Strait, 20% through Jones Sound, and 46% through Nares Strait.     

The Arctic Amplification Debate

Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), rather than to the doubled-CO₂ or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs.