Hysteresis of foF2 at European middle latitudes

The hysteresis of foF2 is studied for several European stations over the whole 24-hour diurnal interval for the equinoctial months of the years just before and just after the solar cycle minimum for solar cycles 20 and 21. Based on previous results, the hysteresis is expected to develop best just for the equinoctial months and near the solar cycle minimum. The hysteresis is generally found to be negative, i.e. higher foF2 for the rising branch compared to the falling branch of solar cycle. However, this is not the case in some individual months of some years. The noontime hysteresis represents the hysteresis at other times of the day qualitatively (as to sign) but not quantitatively. The hysteresis appears to be relatively persistent from one solar cycle to another solar cycle in spring but not in autumn. A typical value for springtime hysteresis is about 0.5 MHz. The inclusion of hysteresis into long-term ionospheric and radio wave propagation predictions remains questionable.     

Cosmic ray modulation during the solar activity growth phase of cycle 24

Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated.     

Long-term solar wind variations in the 20th–23rd solar activity cycles according to radio-astronomical data

We analyzed the variations of the interplanetary plasma parameters, obtained from radio astronomical observations of scintillations of cosmic radio sources during four 11-year cycles of solar activity, from 1966 to present. It is shown that the state of the interplanetary plasma permanently changes in conformity with cyclicity in the solar activity. In the studied time period, besides the 11-year variations in the velocity and scintillation index, there is also an increasing linear trend of these variables, which is presumably due to a secular 80–90-year cycle of solar activity. The observed differences between the 11-year variations and trends in the solar wind velocity and interplanetary scintillation index suggest that the 11-year and secular cycles have different origins. It is found that these trends occur in this time period in each link of the Sun-Earth system: in the solar activity indices, in the characteristics of the interplanetary medium, and practically in all characteristics of the geophysical, demographical, medical, and other Earth’s processes. From the entire set of facts we can conclude that most of the analyzed Earth’s processes are dominated not by anthropogenic factors, but by the effects of the secular cyclic processes of the solar activity.     

Model of intermittency of grand minimums and maximums in the solar dynamo

The αΩ-dynamo model with casual fluctuations of parameter α reproduces all main indications of solar grand minimums and maximums. If we take the dependence of turbulent diffusivity on the magnetic field into account, we obtain the phenomenon of hysteresis, when two solutions are possible in a certain interval of dynamo number values: decaying oscillations of weak fields and magnetic cycles with a constant and a large amplitude, which are formed depending on initial conditions. Fluctuations in parameter α result in transitions between these regimes, and the computations indicate that magnetic cycles with a relative large amplitude alternate with epochs of weak magnetic fields. Such behavior can be used as a model of grand minimums and maximums of solar activity.     

Signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters

Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available.     

Solar-Activity Indices for the Ionosphere in Cycles 23 and 24: the Form of Cycles

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Analysis of the features of the form of low solar cycles 23 and 24 for the solar-activity indices (F is the solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, Rz and Ri are...     

Features of the solar-type activity of stars with various depths of the convective zone

The levels of chromospheric and coronal activity of the Sun are compared with new vast observations of late-type stars. The solar chromosphere turned to be more powerful than in the main body of stars and the corona is considerably weakened. A wavelet analysis of activity indices and measurement results for the magnetic field of the Sun as a star was performed for several solar cycles. It was obtained that solar activity in the differential rotation differs from phenomena on less massive K stars with cycles and, in contrast to them, the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun is a regulating factor for active processes. These results can be naturally explained with the assumption that the activity of a star with a given mass depends on the depth of the lower base of the convective zone. This seems to require the development of knowledge about the two-level dynamo and a new approach to studying solar-type activity.     

Energy spectrum of X-ray flares associated with sunspot groups of different classes in three solar cycles

The integral energies of flares associated with active regions of different classes of sunspot groups were calculated on the basis of direct measurements of X-ray fluxes from flares (1–8Å, GOES) for three solar cycles (1977–2007). The integral energy spectra were constructed, and their indices β were calculated for flares in active regions of each class. It was established that the value of parameter β is different for the active regions of different classes. A positive correlation between this parameter and the 11-year cycle (the Wolf number) was revealed for each class. Parameter β is related to the 22-year magnetic cycle. Our results can be used in the dynamo and flare theories.     

Extrema of long-term modulation of the cosmic ray intensity in the last five solar cycles

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in cycles 19–23 of solar activity has been determined based on observations of their long-term variations on the ground and in the near-Earth space. The extreme values of long-term variations in cosmic rays, obtained from the data of continuous cosmic radiation monitoring on the ground and in the near-Earth space in the last five solar cycles, have been analyzed. The results are compared with the extrema in the characteristics of solar magnetic fields and the sunspot numbers in these cycles. The similarities and differences in cosmic ray modulation between different cycles are discussed.     

A 22-year cycle in the F layer ionization of the ionosphere

The double-sunspot-cycle variation in terrestrial magnetic activity has been well known for about 30 years. In 1990 we examined and compared the low-solar-activity (LSA) part of two consecutive cycles and predicted from this database and from published results the existence of a double-sunspot-cycle variation in total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere too. This is restricted to noontime when the semi-annual component is well developed. Since 1995 we have had enough data for the statistical processing for high-solar-activity (HSA) conditions of two successive solar cycles. The results confirm the LSA findings. The annual variation of TEC shows a change from an autumn maximum in cycle 21 to a spring maximum during the next solar cycle. Similar to the aa indices for geomagnetic activity the TEC data show a phase change in the 1-year component of the Fourier transform of the annual variation. Additionally we found the same behaviour in the F-layer peak electron density (N_max) over four solar cycles. This indicates that there exists a double-sunspot-cycle variation in the F-layer ionization over Europe too. It is very likely coupled with the 22-year cycle in geomagnetic activity.     

Fractal dimension of changes in the solar magnetic field energy and quasi-biennial solar activity variations

Using the data of 1960–1999 on solar magnetic fields on the source surface and the Higuchi method, the fractal dimension of changes in the solar magnetic field energy at various heliolatitudes and in different time intervals is analyzed. The fractal dimension obtained on a moving 1-year interval displays substantial time variations. The 11-year cycle, which dominates at high latitudes, and quasi-biennial variations (QBVs), which dominate at low latitudes and are similar to QBVs of solar activity indices, are traced in these variations. Thus, solar QBVs that appear in all heliomagnetic activity indices are also present in the fractal structure of the solar magnetic field variations.     

Total Solar Irradiance Observations

The record of total solar irradiance (TSI) during the past 35?years has overlapping observations from space which can be merged to a composite, and three are available, namely the PMOD, the ACRIM and the IRMB composites. There are important differences between them, which are discussed in detail in order to find the best representation of solar variability during the last three cycles, for the following discussions of solar irradiance variability. Moreover, the absolute value of TSI from TIM on SORCE is 1,361?Wm^?2, substantially lower than the value 1,365?Wm^?2, which was observed by the classical radiometers. New results from specific experiments are now available, which are discussed in order to define the value to be used in, e.g., climate models. The most important issue regarding the recent TSI records is the low value observed during the minimum in 2009, which is 25% of a typical cycle amplitude lower than the value in 1996. The validity of this low value has been confirmed by comparing all existing TSI observations during cycle 23. On the other hand, activity indices, such as the sunspot number, the 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7), the CaII and MgII indices and also the Ly-α irradiance or the frequency changes in low-order p modes, show a much smaller decreases relative to their respective typical cycle amplitude. It is most likely that an increasing contrast of the facular and network elements with decreasing magnetic field is responsible for this discrepancy. The value of TSI at minima is correlated with the open magnetic field of the Sun, B _R,?at minima. Using B _R at minima, interpolated linearly in between as a fourth component of a proxy model based on the photometric sunspot index and on the MgII index improves the explanation of the variance of TSI over the full period of the last three solar cycles to 84.7%. Results from other models are also discussed.     

Missing solar cycle hypothesis and basic statistical regularities of solar cycles

The basic statistical properties of solar cycles, including the Gnevyshev-Ol?? rule, the Waldmeier effect, and the amplitude-period effect, are tested using data on the number of sunspot groups for 1700?C1996, considering the hypothesis about a missing solar cycle in the late 18th century. The results show that the division of the long cycle of 1784?C1800 into two short cycles??1784?C1793 and 1793?C1800??alters significantly the pattern of the solar cycles. The Gnevyshev-Ol?? cycle intensity effect becomes stronger, and almost all other statistical effects grow weaker. This change is due to the fact that the short and weak cycle of 1793?C1800 is statistically very unusual and its features are very different from those of other solar cycles.     

Long-range forecasts of River Po discharges based on predictable solar activity and a fuzzy neural network model / Prévisions à long terme des débits du Fleuve Pô basées sur l’activité solaire prévisible et sur un modèle de réseau de neurones flou

Abstract

Abstract Is it possible to make seasonal and interannual forecasts of hydrological variables if one cannot predict next week’s rainfall? Contrary to common view, some scientists support the hypothesis that variations in mean global temperature and precipitation are controlled more by external forcing (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) than by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation are connected with special phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle, which coincide with significant accumulation of energetic solar eruptions. Because of the possibility of identifying years with many solar eruptions, the attractive prospect emerges of the long-term hydrological forecasting based on cycles of solar activity. Starting from this assumption, an expert system was built based on a fuzzy neural network model for seasonal and interannual forecasting of the Po River discharge. It was found that indices of solar activity and of global circulation are sufficient to yield useful forecasts of hydrological variables.     

11-Year cyclicity of the near-surface heat flux at the Vostok station

It is known that the solar component is difficult to find in a climatic signal due to its small size and significant internal random disturbances of the climatic system, such as variations in cloudiness, precipitation, winds, and oceanic currents. In the center of the polar cap, these disturbances are as minimal as possible; therefore, solving the inverse heat conduction problem, we can calculate the informative heat flux through the ice cover based on temperature data. Variations in the heat flux are quite significant in amplitude (0.2–0.3 W/m²) and coincide with the 11-year solar cycle in phase. Application of this approach to the indices of the global and sea surface temperatures cannot yield a solar signal, yet it can be traced for solar cycles with big amplitude (cycles 19 and 21). Thus, the found variation in the heat flux is most probably caused by a change in the solar constant (TSI); however, other mechanisms are also possible.     

Global magnetic field of the Sun and long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays

The paper deals with the relation of long-term variations of 10 GV galactic cosmic rays (GCR) to the global solar magnetic field and solar wind parameters. This study continues previous works, where the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and other solar-heliospheric parameters are successfully used to describe long-term variations of cosmic rays in the past two solar cycles. The novelty of the present work is the use of the HCS tilt and other parameters reconstructed from Hα observations of filaments for the period when direct global solar magnetic field observations were unavailable. Thus, we could extend the GCR simulation interval back to 1953. The analysis of data for 1953–1999 revealed a good correlation (the correlation coefficient >0.88) between the solar-heliospheric parameters and GCR in different cycles of solar activity. Moreover, the approach applied makes it possible to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of solar maxima, which could not be done before. This indicates both the adequacy of the model and the reliability of the reconstructed global solar magnetic field parameters.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays during the last five solar cycles

We study the cosmic ray modulation during different solar cycles and polarity states of the heliosphere. We determine (a) time lag between the cosmic ray intensity and the solar variability, (b) area of the cosmic ray intensity versus solar activity modulation loops and (c) dependence of the cosmic ray intensity on the solar variability, during different solar activity cycles and polarity states of the heliosphere. We find differences during odd and even solar cycles. Differences during positive and negative polarity periods are also found. Consequences and implications of the observed differences during (i) odd and even cycles, and (ii) opposite polarity states (A<0 and A>0) are discussed in the light of the modulation models, including drift effects.     

Anisotropy and symmetry of fluctuations in the solar wind magnetic field and velocity

The behavior of correlation tensors of fluctuations in the solar wind magnetic field and velocity is studied during different phases of a solar cycle on the basis of a 45-year measurement series of solar wind parameters. It is found that the orientation of fluctuations in the magnetic field and velocity is approximately axisymmetric relative to the direction of a local magnetic field during high solar activity. This symmetry is violated significantly during periods of low solar activity, and deviations from the symmetry are regular and oppositely directed during minima of even and odd 11-year cycles, which is probably connected with variations in the orientation of the Sun??s magnetic field. The dependence of the power of fluctuations on the local magnetic field direction reveals significant deviations from local symmetry during all phases of a solar cycle, especially for velocity fluctuations.     

第23太阳活动周期太阳风参数及地磁指数的统计分析

日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass Ejection,简称CME)和共转相互作用区(Corotating Interaction Region,简称CIR)是造成日地空间行星际扰动和地磁扰动的两个主要原因,提供了地球磁暴的主要驱动力,进而显著影响地球空间环境.为深入研究太阳风活动及受其主导影响的地磁活动的时间分布特征,本文对大量太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的数据进行了详细分析.首先,采用由NASA OMNIWeb提供的太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的公开数据,通过自主编写matlab程序对第23太阳活动周期(1996-01-01—2008-12-31)的数据包括行星际磁场Bz分量、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压等重要太阳风参数及Dst指数、AE指数、Kp指数等主要的地磁指数进行统计分析,建立了包括269个CME事件和456个CIR事件列表的数据库.采用事例分析法和时间序列叠加法分别对两类太阳活动的四个重要太阳风参数(IMF Bz、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压)和三个主要地磁指数(Dst、AE、Kp)进行统计分析,并研究了其统计特征.其次,根据Dst指数最小值确定了第23太阳活动周期内的355个孤立地磁暴事件,并以Dst指数最小值为标准将这些磁暴进一步分类为145个弱磁暴、123个中等磁暴、70个强磁暴、12个剧烈磁暴和5个巨大磁暴.最后,采用时间序列叠加法对不同强度磁暴的太阳风参数和地磁指数进行统计分析.统计分析表明,对于CME事件,Nsw/Pdyn(Nsw表示太阳风质子密度,Pdyn表示太阳风动压)线性拟合斜率一般为正;对于CIR事件,Nsw/Pdyn线性拟合斜率一般为负,这可作为辨别CME和CIR事件的一种有效方法.从平均意义上讲,相较于CIR事件,CME事件有更大的南向IMF Bz分量、太阳风动压Pdyn、AE指数、Kp指数以及更小的Dstmin.一般情况下,CME事件有更大的可能性驱动极强地磁暴.总体而言,对于不同强度的地磁暴,Dst指数的变化呈现出一定的相似性,但随着地磁暴强度的增强,Dst指数衰减的速度变快.CME和CIR事件以及其各自驱动的地磁暴事件有着很多不同,因此,需要将CME事件驱动的磁暴及CIR事件驱动的磁暴分开研究.建立CME、CIR事件及地磁暴的数据库以及获取的统计分析结果,将为深入研究地球磁层等离子体片、辐射带及环电流对太阳活动的响应特征提供有利的帮助.     

Variations of solar EUV,UV and ionospheric foF2 related to the solar rotation period

Spectral analysis of daily values of various solar indices viz. sunspot number, 10.7-cm flux, H Lyman-<alpha> and -<beta>, specific He, Fe and Mg lines and solar X-rays was carried out for two selected intervals. During interval A (May-August 1978, 123 days) the solar indices showed a prominent periodicity near 27 days, while during interval B (January-May 1979, 151 days) the solar indices showed a prominent periodicity near 13 days. For the same intervals, foF2 (max) and foF2 (average) during 1000–1500 LT were similarly analysed for the locations Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil (23○S, 45○W), and Okinawa (26○N, 128○E) and Kokubunji (36○N, 139○E) in Japan. The 27-day and 13-day periodicities in solar indices were reflected in the foF2 series, but in different relative proportions at the three locations, probably due to the interference of local aerodynamical effects. Some other periodicities were common to solar indices and foF2, while some others were present in the solar indices but not in foF2, or vice versa.