Mesoscale wind climate modelling in steep mountains

Abstract

Although the Mesoscale Community Compressible (MC2) model successfully reproduces the wind climate (for wind energy development purposes) of the Gaspé region, equivalent simulations for the steep mountainous southern Yukon have been unsatisfactory. An important part of the problem lies in the provision of suitable boundary conditions in the lower troposphere. This paper will describe an alternative provision of boundary conditions to the MC2 model based partly on standard National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis statistics, however, with modified lower tropospheric conditions based on local radiosonde measurements.

The MC2 model is part of the AnemoScope wind energy simulation toolkit which applies statistical‐dynamical downscaling of basic large‐scale weather situations (i.e., the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis) to simulate the steadystate wind climate of a complex region. A case study summarized here imposes a typical mean winter temperature inversion on the boundary conditions to reduce downward momentum transfer in the MC2 model over the Whitehorse region. In conjunction with this step, the geostrophic wind at the boundaries is held constant (with height) in speed and direction, based on the (observed) dominant southwesterly winds above the mountaintops. The resulting simulation produces wind directions within the modelled domain that are in much better agreement with the available measurements. However, despite the imposed atmospheric stability, downward transfer of horizontal momentum from aloft still appears to exceed that occurring in nature.

It is recommended that (in future studies of this type regarding mountain wind climate) the input statistics processed from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis be modified by referencing the geostrophic winds to a level above the mountaintops. It is also suggested that converting to a height (z) coordinate system may reduce the erroneous downward momentum transfer found in the present terrain‐following grid.     

Simulated Influence of Mountainous Wind Farms Operations on Local Climate

Renewable energy sources, especially wind power, were believed to be able to slow down global warming; however, evidence in recent years shows that wind farms may also induce climate change. With the rapid development of wind power industry, the number of wind farms installed in mountains has gradually increased. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of wind farms in mountainous areas on local climate. The Suizhou and Dawu wind farms in northern Hubei Province were chosen for the present study on the impact of wind farm operations on the local climate in mountainous areas. The mesoscale meteorological numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Fitch model, together with turbulence correction factor, were used to simulate wind farm operations and study their effects on local climate. The results showed the characteristics of wind speed attenuation in mountainous wind farms: the amplitude and range of wind speed attenuation were stronger in the nighttime than in the daytime, and stronger in summer than in winter. The surface temperature increased and became more significant in summer. However, a cooling variation was observed above the surface warming center. The height of this center was higher in the daytime than it was in the nighttime. The latent heat flux in the wind farms decreased at night, accompanied by an increase in sensible heat flux. However, these changes were not significant. Some differences were observed between the impact of wind farms on the climate in the plains and the mountains. Such differences are more likely to be related to complex terrain conditions, climate conditions, and the density of wind turbines. The present study may provide support for the development and construction of wind farms in mountainous areas.     

A Prediction System for Local Wind Variations in Mountainous Terrain

A three-level model system for the prediction of local flows in mountainous terrain is described. The system is based upon an operational weather prediction model with a horizontal grid spacing of about 10 km. The large-scale flow is transformed to a more detailed terrain, first by a mesoscale model with grid spacing of about 1 km, and then by a local-scale model with a grid spacing of about 0.2 km. The weather prediction model is hydrostatic, while the two other models are non-hydrostatic. As a case study the model system has been applied to estimate wind and turbulence over Várnes airport, Norway, where data on turbulent flight conditions were provided near the runway. The actual case was chosen due to previous experiences, which indicate that south-easterly winds may cause severe turbulence in a region close to the airport. Local terrain induced turbulence seems to be the main reason for these effects. The predicted local flow in the actual region is characterized by narrow secondary vortices along the flow, and large turbulent intensity associated with these vortices. A similar pattern is indicated by the sparse observations, although there seems to be a difference in mean wind direction between data and predictions. Due to fairly coarse data for sea surface temperature, errors could be induced in the turbulence damping via the Richardson number. An adjustment for this data problem improved the predictions.     

A Cluster Space Calibration Scheme for Synthetic Wind Statistics Calculated with a Mesoscale Model and its Application to Regional Wind Climate Studies

Summary ?A scheme for calibrating an ensemble of wind fields computed by a mesoscale model in order to generate synthetic wind statistics is described. It is based on two main points. The first is to exploit the power of a mesoscale model to determine wind fields over complex terrain for different weather situations classified by cluster analysis. The second is to use all the information in the cluster analysis, i.e., the centroid values as well as the internal standard deviations of the clusters, to determine a cluster space distribution at each grid point in the model domain. The latter makes calibration possible if reliable measurements are available at the position of one of the grid points. The accuracy of the calibration is increased by splitting the cluster spaces into several parts. Combining both the modelled mesoscale wind fields and the method of split cluster spaces leads to a spatial transformation of the calibration from the calibration point to each grid point in the model domain. A validation of the scheme is carried out with measurements at grid points other than the calibration point and reveals remarkable improvements in the accuracy of the model wind statistics, especially with regard to wind speed distributions. Received October 8, 1998/Revised March 19, 1999     

Comparison of Measured and Numerically Simulated Turbulence Statistics in a Convective Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to simulate atmospheric processes ranging from quasi-global to tens of m in scale. Here we employ large-eddy simulation (LES) using the WRF model, with the LES-domain nested within a mesoscale WRF model domain with grid spacing decreasing from 12.15 km (mesoscale) to 0.03 km (LES). We simulate real-world conditions in the convective planetary boundary layer over an area of complex terrain. The WRF-LES model results are evaluated against observations collected during the US Department of Energy-supported Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. Comparison of the first- and second-order moments, turbulence spectrum, and probability density function of wind speed shows good agreement between the simulations and observations. One key result is to demonstrate that a systematic methodology needs to be applied to select the grid spacing and refinement ratio used between domains, to avoid having a grid resolution that falls in the grey zone and to minimize artefacts in the WRF-LES model solutions. Furthermore, the WRF-LES model variables show large variability in space and time caused by the complex topography in the LES domain. Analyses of WRF-LES model results show that the flow structures, such as roll vortices and convective cells, vary depending on both the location and time of day as well as the distance from the inflow boundaries.     

基于CFD动力降尺度的复杂地形风电场风电功率短期预测方法研究

复杂地形导致近地层风场时空变化大,是影响风电场短期风电功率预测准确率的重要因素。为此,基于中尺度数值预报模式和微尺度计算流体力学模式,建立了风电场短期风电功率动力降尺度预测系统。该系统由中尺度数值预报模式、微尺度风场基础数据库、风电功率预测集成系统组成,能够预测复杂地形风电场中每台风电机组未来72 h逐15 min的发电量。提高了复杂地形风场发电功率预测准确率,同时还可以在上报电网的风电功率预测结果中考虑运行维护计划和限电等因素对实际并网功率的影响。2014年7月-2015年1月的业务预测试验表明,风电场短期风电功率动力降尺度预测系统的月预测相对误差均小于0.2,满足中国国家电网对风电功率预测误差和时效性的业务要求。动力降尺度技术不受具体项目地形复杂程度和历史观测数据样本量的限制,可以在新建风电场中推广应用,具备实际的可操作性。      

Mesoscale simulations of multi-decadal variability in the wind resource over Korea

This study investigated multi-decadal variability in the wind resource over the Republic of Korea using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model. Mesoscale simulations were performed for the period from November 1981 to November 2010. The typical wind climatology over the Korean Peninsula, which is influenced by both continental and oceanic features, was represented by the physics-based mesoscale simulations. Winter had windier conditions with northwesterly flows, whereas less windy with southwesterly flows appeared in summer. The annual mean wind speeds over the Republic of Korea were approximately 2 m s^?1 with strong wind in mountainous areas, coastal areas, and islands. The multi-decadal variability in wind speed during the study period was characterized by significant increases (positive trend) over many parts of the study area, even though the various local trends appeared depending on the station locations. The longterm trend in the spatially averaged wind speed was approximately 0.002 m s^?1 yr^?1. The annual frequency of daily mean wind speeds over 5 m s^?1 at the turbine hub height also increased during the study period throughout the Republic of Korea. The present study demonstrates that multi-decadal mesoscale simulations can be useful for climatological assessment of wind energy potential.     

四川地形谱特征及中尺度模式水平网格分辨率选取

四川地形复杂多样,暴雨频发,常诱发山洪、泥石流等灾害。在利用中尺度模式对复杂地形区域的暴雨进行研究时,模式水平分辨率的选取缺乏定量依据。为了揭示四川地形的复杂特征和给中尺度模式水平网格分辨率的选取提供定量依据,利用二维离散余弦变换,对四川地形高度场和暴雨分布场进行谱分解,根据暴雨分布特征分区讨论了四川盆地地形特征,同时利用地形谱方差和数值试验定量讨论了数值模式水平分辨率的选取问题,得到主要结论有:(1)二维离散余弦变换能较好地表现出研究区域各向异性的复杂特征;(2)雅安地区和四川盆地西北部的地形谱与降水谱有较好的同相关系,盆地东北部和盆地中部的地形谱与降水谱在波长较大处出现反相关系;(3)针对某个区域的地形特征,可以通过计算模式能分辨的地形方差与总地形方差的比值来确定合适的中尺度模式水平网格分辨率。     

Interdecadal changes in mesoscale eddy variance in the Gulf of Alaska circulation: Possible implications for the Steller sea lion decline

Abstract

A distinct change in the ocean circulation of the Gulf of Alaska after the 1976–77 climate shift is studied in an eddy‐permitting primitive equation model forced by observed wind stresses from 1951–99. When the Aleutian Low strengthens after 1976–77, strong changes occur in the mean velocity of the Alaskan Stream and in its associated mesoscale eddy field. In contrast, the Alaska Current and the eddy flows in the eastern Gulf remain relatively unchanged after the shift. Since mesoscale eddies provide a possible mechanism for transporting nutrient‐ rich open‐ocean waters to the productive shelf region, the flow of energy through the food web may have been altered by this physical oceanographic change. This climate‐driven mechanism, which has a characteristic eastwest spatial asymmetry, may potentially help to explain changes in forage fish quality in diet diversity of Steller sea lions whose populations have declined precipitously since the mid‐1970s in the western Gulf while remaining stable in the eastern Gulf.     

Proof of the monotonicity of grid size and its application in grid-size selection for mesoscale models

Terrain characteristics can be accurately represented in spectrum space. Terrain spectra can quantitatively reflect the effect of topographic dynamic forcing on the atmosphere. In wavelength space, topographic spectral energy decreases with decreasing wavelength, in spite of several departures. This relationship is approximated by an exponential function. A power law relationship between the terrain height spectra and wavelength is fitted by the least-squares method, and the fitting slope is associated with grid-size selection for mesoscale models. The monotonicity of grid size is investigated, and it is strictly proved that grid size increases with increasing fitting exponent, indicating that the universal grid size is determined by the minimum fitting exponent. An example of landslide-prone areas in western Sichuan is given, and the universal grid spacing of 4.1 km is shown to be a requirement to resolve 90% of terrain height variance for mesoscale models, without resorting to the parameterization of subgrid-scale terrain variance. Comparison among results of different simulations shows that the simulations estimate the observed precipitation well when using a resolution of 4.1 km or finer. Although the main flow patterns are similar, finer grids produce more complex patterns that show divergence zones, convergence zones and vortices.Horizontal grid size significantly affects the vertical structure of the convective boundary layer. Stronger vertical wind components are simulated for finer grid resolutions. In particular, noticeable sinking airflows over mountains are captured for those model configurations.     

基于WRF和CFD软件结合的风能资源数值模拟试验研究

运用中尺度数值模式WRF与法国CFD软件MeteodynwT相结合的方法（WRF／WT）,进行了广东省海陵岛地区的水平分辨率100m×100m的风能资源数值模拟试验,采用海陵岛上7座测风塔观测资料对WRF／WT模式的模拟风场进行误差检验,并与WRF／WAsP模式系统对单点风能参数模拟误差进行对比,研究WRF／WT模式系统在风电场微观选址和分散式风电开发利用中应用的可行性。结果表明：中尺度模式与CFD软件结合的数值模拟方法对区域风能资源分布趋势的模拟比单纯应用CFD软件更准确;WRF／WT模式系统应用于复杂地形风能资源数值模拟评估是可行的,其对区域风能资源参数分布模拟的准确率与WRF／WAsP对2km范围内风能资源参数模拟的准确率相当;WRF／WT模式系统在风速频率分布不满足Weibull分布的情况下和陡峭地形条件下有较好的模拟效果,相对WRF／wAsP有明显优势。今后需进一步研究中尺度模式与CFD软件的衔接方法,以及对中尺度模式模拟结果的误差订正。     

Temporal Oscillations in the Convective Boundary Layer Forced by Mesoscale Surface Heat-Flux Variations

A theoretical approach suggests that the surface heterogeneity on a scale of tens of kilometres can generate mesoscale motions that are not in a quasi-stationary state. The starting point of the theoretical approach is the equations of horizontal velocity and potential temperature that are low-pass filtered with a mesoscale cut-off wavelength. The transition of the generated mesoscale motions from a quasi-stationary state to a non-stationary state occurs when horizontal advection is strong enough to level out the potential temperature gradient on the surface heterogeneity scale. Large-eddy simulations (LES) suggest that the convective boundary layer (CBL) changes to a non-stationary state when forced by a surface heat-flux variation of amplitude of 100W m⁻² or higher and a wavelength of the order of 10 km. Spectral analysis of the LES reveals that when the mesoscale motions are in a quasi-stationary state, the energy provided by the surface heat-flux variation remains in organized mesoscale motions on the scale of the surface variation itself. However, in a non-stationary state, the energy cascades to smaller scales, with the cascade extending down into the turbulence scale when the wavelength of the surface heat-flux variation is on a scale smaller than 100 times the CBL height. The energy transfer from the generated mesoscale motions to the CBL turbulence results in the absence of a spectral gap between the two scales. The absence of an obvious spectral gap between the generated mesoscale motions and the turbulence raises questions about the applicability of mesoscale models for studies on the effect of high-amplitude surface heterogeneity on a scale of tens of kilometres. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

复杂地形风场的精细数值模拟

风能是一种重要气候资源,随着我国风电规模的迅速增大,发展风能资源评估系统和风功率预测系统已成为一项重要的研究内容。国内外对复杂地形风场结构的数值模拟有大量研究,随着计算机能力增强,以往用于空气动力学精细流场计算的计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)模式越来越多地在气象领域得到应用,人们开始研究用中尺度预报模式和CFD模式结合进行复杂地形风场的数值模拟。本文的耦合模式系统采用中尺度气象模式(WRF),通过嵌套网格到内层尺度(一般是几公里),然后通过耦合CFD模式Fluent软件获得高分辨率(水平30~100 m,垂直150 m高度以下10 m)的风速分布资料,得到精细化的风场信息。通过对鄱阳湖北部区域和云南杨梅山复杂地形的风场模拟,提供了风能评估和预报的一种可行的方法。     

A Comparison Of Aerosol-Layer And Convective Boundary-Layer Structure Over A Mountain Range During Staaarte '97

The temporal evolution and spatial structure of the aerosol layer (AL) height as observed with an airborne downlooking lidar over the Swiss Alps were investigated with a three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model and a particle dispersion model. Convective boundary-layer (CBL) heights were derived from the mesoscale model output, and the behaviour of surface-released particles was investigated with the particle dispersion model. While a previous investigation, using data from the same field study, equated the observed AL height with the CBL height, the results of the current investigation indicate that there is a considerable difference between AL and CBL heights caused by mixing and transport processes between the CBL and the free atmosphere. CBL heights show a more terrain-following behaviour and are lower than AL heights. We argue that processes causing the difference between AL and CBL heights are common over mountainous terrain and that the AL height is a length scale that needs to be considered in air pollution studies in mountainous terrain.     

On the consideration of mesoscale transports in climate modelling

Summary The dynamical effect of land surface heterogeneity on heat fluxes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated using numerical simulations with a non-hydrostatic model over a wide range of grid resolutions. It is commonly assumed that mesoscale or dynamical fluxes associated with mesoscale and convective circulations simulated by a high-resolution model (subgrid (SG) model) on the subgrid scale of a climate model (large-scale (LS) model) represent additional processes in the ABL, which are not considered by the turbulence scheme of the LS-model, and which can be parameterized using the SG-model. The present study investigates the usefulness of this methodology for small-scale and large-scale idealized heterogeneities using a SG-model resolving mesoscale or even microscale circulations to compute the mesoscale fluxes on the scale of the LS-model. It is shown that the dynamical transports as derived from the SG-model should not be used to correct the parameterized turbulent fluxes of the LS-model. The reason is that the subgrid circulations simulated by the SG-model interact with the fields of wind and scalars in the ABL, which results in reduced turbulent fluxes in the ABL. Thus the methodology of previous studies to use mesoscale/dynamical fluxes for the correction of flux profiles simulated by climate models seems to be questionable.     

Some effects of deforestation on nocturnal drainage flow and local climate — A numerical study

The three-dimensional mesoscale model FITNAH has been modified to simulate effects of a tall tree canopy on airflow in complex terrain. Numerical experiments show the general features of meteorological variables inside a plant stand with low wind speeds and a nearly neutral thermal stratification during night. Available observations from the Finkenbach valley and the simulated temperatures near the ground show good agreeement.Comparison of model results for a nighttime situation for cases with and without a canopy (after complete deforestation) leads to the main results, viz., that surface wind speed will increase and the atmosphere near the ground will become colder after deforestation.However, the production rate of cooled air (expressed in m³m^–2h^–1) decreases; that means that forested slopes are more effective in ventilating a city than slopes covered with short vegetation.     

The thermodynamic speed limit and its violation in axisymmetric numerical simulations of tornado‐like vortices

Abstract

Processes that regulate the central pressure and maximum wind speeds of tornado‐like vortices are explored with an axisymmetric numerical model. The model consists of a rotating cylinder of fluid enclosed within rigid boundaries. The momentum diffusivity is a fixed function of height. In the rotating reference frame, relative motion is induced by a buoyancy force in the vicinity of the rotation axis, leading to the formation of a central vortex. The work done by the central buoyancy force on a parcel rising along the axis defines theoretical and empirical wind speed bounds on both the updraft and the low‐level vortex. Certain processes are found that allow for the vortex to greatly exceed this wind speed bound, or the so‐called thermodynamic speed limit; however, in most of the parameter space the vortex wind speeds are close to the thermodynamic speed limit.

The most effective limit‐breaking process involves a supercritical end‐wall vortex with an axial jet. In steady state, the supercritical vortex sustains wind speeds 2.0 times the speed limit. A transient end‐wall vortex, with the vortex breakdown travelling rapidly downwards toward the surface, is able to achieve wind speeds 5.0 times the speed limit. Warming of the subsiding vortex core past the vortex breakdown increases the maximum steady‐state azimuthal wind speed by about 20% from what it would be otherwise. Axial momentum diffusion is not found to significantly enhance the surface pressure deficit in any of the simulations.     

Tetroon studies of diffusion potential in the Airshed surrounding the Crowsnest pass area

A series of constant‐level balloon flights was made in the Crowsnest Pass area under westerly wind conditions, for the purpose of investigating the diffusion properties of the surrounding airshed. The balloon trajectories showed the existence of large sustained velocities over the mountainous region. The magnitudes of the vertical motions were found to be dependent on wind direction. Under moderately strong wind speeds, they appear to have been insensitive to the vertical temperature gradients which were measured within the first 31 m of the ground.

Diffusion coefficients were calculated from the tetroon data. They were usually found to be about twice as large as the comparable data presented by Pasquill.     

拖曳系数参数化方案对工程台风模拟风场的影响研究

基于台风边界层的最新观测和研究成果,提出了最大风速半径、边界层风速比、拖曳系数等关键参数的经验方案,并依据垂直平均水平运动方程,建立适用于西北太平洋的工程台风风场模型,最高分辨率为2 km。通过理想试验,验证了所建模型的合理性,并重点关注模拟风场对拖曳系数参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明,不同拖曳系数参数化方案（增长型、饱和型、下降型）对强台风内核区的风场模拟有显著影响,但对最大风速的模拟影响不大。为验证所建模型对实际西北太平洋台风的适用性,选取台风“海葵”（1211）进行个例试验,得到最大风速的平均误差为-0.36 m/s,均方根误差为2.22 m/s。进一步选取我国沿海6个受“海葵”影响的测站,进行模拟风向、风速与观测的对比分析,发现所建台风风场模型能很好地模拟出台风影响过程中的风向转变,但各测站的风速均方根误差在1.61~6.92 m/s之间。较大的风速误差主要出现在位于台风中心附近的测站,意味着我国沿海复杂地形对台风的衰减作用在模型中考虑不足,是未来的改进方向。