青海龙羊峡超低频电磁辐射在中强震前的短期(短临)异常特征及单台预报效能

根据青海龙羊峡电磁台自1991年9月以来的资料，对电磁波辐射在震前的异常特征进行了分析总结。地震往往发生在电磁波异常结束后，电磁波在一组异常中出现显著异常是地震进入短期(短临)异常的主要特征。显著异常判断指标是一次地震中异常幅度(产生的场强)最大的或异常持续时间最长的异常。通过对有震异常、无震异常和漏报的统计，龙羊峡电磁波辐射的预报效能并不高。     

北京五里营井流体异常原因及解决办法

2010年7月3日延庆地震台五里营井流体测项均出现大幅波动现象。本文台站人员通过科学系统分析,确定此异常变化是由于该井泄流管最高端憋气造成,并采用类似暖气跑风的原理,对泄流管进行了改造,使所有流体测项恢复正常观测。     

2002年8月3日沙城4.4级地震震源特征

2002年8月3日沙城ML4．4地震是该年7个月以来，首都圈地区发生的显著地震，虽然该地震震级不大，但怀来台体应变的短临异常十分显著。作者主要介绍了该地震前体应变异常特征，同时介绍了地下流体测项阳原三马坊数字气氡异常和怀4井水汞异常及预报情况。     

临震电磁波异常

本文介绍了1983年6月24日越南莱州M=7.0级地震前后楚雄地震台“磁引信”仪器记录到的电磁波异常。发现主震前后出现的异常电磁波的波形、频率、振幅都不相同,并指出利用震前电磁波异常作地震短临预报的可能性。本文还就地震辐射电磁波的一些问题进行了讨论。     

景泰5．9级地震前平安地温及电磁波短临异常特征

介绍了平安台地温,电磁波观测点基本概况以及该点地温与电磁波在2000年6月6日甘肃景泰地震前的短临异常特征,初步探讨了异常形成的机理,认为平安台2种观测手段互初性好,有一定的映震能力,利用其同步异常信息对一定范围内的地震做出一定程度的预报是可能的。     

山西晋城市地震电磁波台网观测数据动态特征分析

分析总结山西晋城市电磁波台网6个子台观测资料的正常动态特征以及各子台存在的干扰因素,并对2011年发生在台网周边的2次3.0级以上地震出现的异常特征进行分析研究。     

河北文安5.5级地震前天津地区流体短期前兆异常分析

以河北文安5.5级地震为例,分析了地震前天津地区流体测项的异常变化。结果表明,天津王3井、王4井水汞、潘庄井及双桥1井水位在震前都出现了明显的短期前兆异常。     

江苏及邻近地区地震电磁辐射异常与地震关系

对这20多年来江苏及其邻区的地震前的电磁波观测资料进行了整理,对出现的异常信息和地震的对应关系进行了统计分析,分析结果表明,电磁波异常信息与地震三要素有一定的对应关系,并对电磁波的性质从电磁波产生的机制和传播方式两个方面进行了探讨。     

对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析与思考

研究了汶川8.0级地震前四川地区模拟和数字地电、地磁类观测资料。四川地区地电6台站的26测项模拟观测,在汶川8.0级地震前仅出现1项中期异常,异常台站比1/6=0.17;异常测项比为1/26=0.04。对"九五"到"十五"期间四川地区数字化改造或数字地电观测资料,没有分析检测出异常项。四川地区6个台的地磁垂直分量整点值的日变形态在震前2天出现波谷分裂的异常现象,由于平时出现此类异常频繁,若用于预测无统计学的显著意义。可见汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电和地磁类观测资料结果出现的异常现象比例是极低的。同时对疑似或有争议的异常测项进行分析说明,对汶川8.0级地震前电磁类异常少的原因进行了讨论。     

汶川8.0级地震前后表层水温的异常变化研究

对汶川8.0级地震震中周围800km范围内73个井孔的表层水温资料进行了分析。根据设定的异常与不确定性异常判定依据,发现有9个井孔出现了前兆异常;有5个井孔的异常不能确定是否为前兆异常;有3个井孔出现了典型非前兆异常变化;其余未出现任何异常变化。分析认为异常存在早期、中期和晚期三个阶段,表现为缓变、突变和向下的阶梯状变化。对9个异常井孔的同井水位、气氡等其它流体测项以及同台或邻近台站形变仪器(钻孔应变、钻孔倾斜、洞体应变等)在表层水温异常变化时段内的动态变化特征进行了对比,发现地壳形变与表层水温在异常的晚期阶段具有一定的相关关系;而同井水位与表层水温异常的关系不大。     

滇西怒江断裂带新构造特征

怒江断裂带从走向上可以分为南北走向段和北东走向段,其喜马拉雅期的构造变形以右行剪切为主导。右行剪切的变形历史可以分为早期压剪变形和晚期张剪变形两个大的阶段。这两期变形各自在南北走向段和北东走向段表现出不同的特点。总之,怒江断裂带喜马拉雅期构造变形具有时空不均一性的特点     

Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results

Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change.This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation.The annual trends estimated for the 1986–2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal.Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains, in spring, and in Galicia, in autumn. For the CDD index, negative statistically significant trends were seen in Valencia, in the spring, and, in Galicia and Portugal (north and centre), in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index were found: in the east of the IP, in the winter; in the Cantabrian Mountain, in the spring; and, in the south of the IP, in summer. Regarding to the R75p index, negative statistically significant trends were found in Galicia, in winter and positive statistically significant trends in the north of Portugal, in spring and in the Central Mountains Chain and north of Portugal, in autumn. For the R95pTOT index, negative statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cuenca and Sierra Cazorla, in winter and positive statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cebollera, in winter and in Castile-la Mancha region, in spring.The results of the annual and seasonal trends of the extreme precipitation indices performed for observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim, are similar. The results obtained for the simulation forced by MPI-ESM are not satisfactory, and can be a source of criticism for the use of simulation forced by MPI-ESM in this type of climate change studies. Even for the relatively short period used, the WRF model, when properly forced is a useful tool due to the similar results of Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim.     

中国特有种大型桡足类舌状叶镖水蚤(Phyllodiaptomus tunguidus)在广东水库中的分布特征

舌状叶镖水蚤(Phyllodiaptomus tunguidus)是我国特有的大型哲水蚤,主要分布在我国华南地区.根据2000年对广东省19座典型大中型水库的2次采样和2002年对流溪河水库和新丰江水库的5次采样,重点测定了流溪河水库、新丰江水库和鹤地水库等3座大型水库中舌状叶镖水蚤个体体长及形态参数,分析了广东省大中型水库中舌状叶镖水蚤的种群与个体大小的分布特征.在对19座水库的2次采样中,11座水库发现该种成体,其中5座水库在丰水期没有出现该种的成体,6座水库在丰水期和枯水期都有该种类成体的出现.丰水期与枯水期舌状叶镖水蚤的平均丰度分别为0.465ind./L和0.996ind./L.舌状叶镖水蚤主要出现在大型水库中,特别是贫营养的大型水库,其丰度主要由食物数量、质量与捕食压力所决定.2002年,流溪河水库丰度和新丰江水库舌状叶镖水蚤全年的平均值为1.308ind./L和0.294ind./L,丰水期高于枯水期.在个体大小和形态特征上,2座贫营养水体——流溪河水库、新丰江水库的舌状叶镖水蚤的体长与第一触角长度均大于中营养水体——鹤地水库,这种形态上的差异是由鱼类捕食方式(滤食或选择性捕食)所决定.     

淮河流域焦岗湖水质参数时空变化及影响因素

焦岗湖是淮河左岸一个天然湖泊,集防洪、灌溉、养殖、旅游等多种功能于一体.利用焦岗湖4个季节水质监测数据,运用Kriging方法,分析焦岗湖水质参数的时空变化及影响因素.结果表明:由于受水文季节变化过程及人类活动等综合影响,焦岗湖水质参数在时间及空间上均存在一定差异.从时间变化来看,夏季透明度较低、秋季较高;溶解氧浓度在春、冬季显著高于夏、秋季;总氮、总磷浓度与高锰酸盐指数均表现为夏季最高、秋季最低.从空间变化来看,4个季节的透明度空间差异较为显著;溶解氧浓度在春、冬季空间分布较为均匀,夏季呈现中心高周围低的变化趋势,秋季则表现为西高东低;总磷浓度春季分布较为均匀,夏、秋及冬季则呈西高东低之势;高锰酸盐指数在春、秋季节呈现东高西低之势,夏季高浓度主要集中在湖区北部,冬季浓度变化不大.     

Spatial and seasonal patterns of flood change across Brazil

Brazil has some of the largest rivers in the world and has the second greatest flood loss potential among the emergent countries. Despite that, flood studies in this area are still scarce. In this paper, we used flood seasonality and trend analysis at the annual and seasonal scales in order to describe flood regimes and changes across the whole of Brazil in the period 1976–2015. We identified a strong seasonality of floods and a well-defined spatio-temporal pattern for flood occurrence. There are positive trends in the frequency and magnitude of floods in the North, South and parts of Southeast Brazil; and negative trends in the North-east and the remainder of Southeast Brazil. Trends in the magnitude (frequency) were predominant in the winter (summer). Overall, floods are becoming more frequent and intense in Brazilian regions characterized by wet conditions, and less frequent and intense in drier regions.     

鄱阳湖流域干旱气候特征研究

本文利用鄱阳湖流域127个站点1960-2007年逐日降水和温度资料,选用Z指数对鄱阳湖流域的气象干旱进行分析,并将干旱分为偏旱、大旱和特旱三个等级.研究结果表明鄱阳湖流域干旱基本呈现出南少北多、南强北弱的空间分布形式.鄱阳湖流域7-12月发生的干旱以偏旱为主,大旱和特旱主要出现在1-6月.线性趋势变化分析表明,2000年以来干旱范围和干旱强度均呈现出增加的趋势,其中,2003、2004和2007年的干旱较为严重.2003年大部分月份偏旱范围广、强度大,全年大旱和特旱出现的范围均较小,但3-4月和6-7月的大旱和特旱强度较大;2004年大部分月份偏旱范围和强度均相对较小,但在3月和6月出现范围较大且强度较强的大旱和特旱;2007年干旱分布更为极端,仅在7、10和11月出现范围较广或强度较大的偏旱,而在5月集中出现面积超过80%的大旱和特旱.     

Changes in an urban water resource,an example from Sydney,Australia

This paper examines present and future resource utilization in the tidal section of the Georges River in the southern part of Sydney. Over the last 30 years, the physical characteristics of the river have changed as a result of urbanization, changed hydrologic regime and sand dredging. Urbanization has resulted in an increase in population from 190,000 in 1947 to 550,000. This has resulted in an increase in runoff, sediment input to the river and waste disposal. The change in hydrologic regime has resulted in a substantial increase in the magnitude and frequency of flooding which has increased erosion. Sand dredging has increased the channel capacity, enlarged the tidal prism and increased water turbidity. It has also resulted in extensive bank erosion in the upper part of the river and extensive deposition lower down as tailings are deposited. Although most of these changes have resulted in the deterioration of environmental quality, use of the river for recreation and as an urban amenity has increased.     

Bioassessment Techniques for Monitoring of Eutrophication and Nutrient Limitation in Coastal Ecosystems

Bioassesment by the use of the macroalga, Ulva lactuca L., was carried out in the Limfjord, Denmark, to assess the significance of nitrogen and phosphorus as limiting factors for primary production during 1985, 1993, 1994 and 1995 and for the detection of changes in eutrophication levels.

Minimum and critical tissue concentrations for nitrogen and phosphorus in macroalgae were identified. The concentrations of nitrogen were generally below the critical concentration level in June–October in 1985, 1993, and 1995 but in 1994 nitrogen was only limiting for primary production in short periods. Only in early spring in 1985 and 1993 were the tissue concentrations of phosphorus below the critical concentration level, whereas in 1994 up to 3–4 months showed phosphorus limited growth, indicating that significant changes in limitation patterns can occur between different years.

It was concluded that the use of biomonitoring techniques is well suited as a bioassessment method for direct detection and for providing a time-integrated measure of nutrient availability in coastal waters, and thus for assessing ecosystem health with regard to eutrophication. It is recommended that biomonitors and the concept of critical tissue concentrations should be used in environmental management and incorporated in future monitoring programmes.     

Structure and Significance of S-wave Velocity and Poisson’s Ratio in the Crust beneath the Eastern Side of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The receiver functions of body waves of distant earthquakes obtained for the regions beneath 41 digital stations (Lhasa and GANZ in Tibet, Mandalay and Rangoon in Myanmar, SHIO in India, CHTO in Thailand, and station network in Sichuan and Yunnan) were used to invert for S-wave structure in the crust and upper mantle in Sichuan, Yunnan, and their surrounding areas. Meanwhile the distribution characteristics of the Poisson’s ration and the crustal thickness in Sichuan and Yunnan areas were also obtained. Results indicate that the depth of Moho beneath the eastern side of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau varies strikingly. It is obvious that the greatest changes in crustal thickness occur in a north-south direction. The crustal thickness decreases from north to south, being as thick as 70 km in eastern Tibet, the northern portion of our area of interest, and less than 30 km in Chaing Mai and Rangoon, the southern portion of our area. There are, however, exceptions regarding the trend. The thickness exhibits an east-west variation trend in the area from Ma’erkong-Kongding in Sichuan to Lijiang in Yunnan. In general the Jinpingshan-Longmenshan fault and Anninghe fault can be taken as the boundaries of this exception area. The thickness in Kongding in the west is 68 km, while it is only 39 km in Yongchuan in the east. Moreover the Poisson’s ratio values in the blocks of central Sichuan and Sichuan-Yunnan Diamond are high, and a low velocity layer in the crust of this area can be obviously detected. The distribution characteristics of the high Poisson’s ratio and the low velocity of the crust in this block correspond to the tectonic structure, being in contrast with the surrounding areas. Combining with the distribution features of the modern tectonic stress field, it is deduced that the Sichuan-Yunnan area is probably the channel through which the materials of the lithosphere flow eastward.