Empirical regression models using NDVI, rainfall and temperature data for the early prediction of wheat grain yields in Morocco

In Morocco, no operational system actually exists for the early prediction of the grain yields of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). This study proposes empirical ordinary least squares regression models to forecast the yields at provincial and national levels. The predictions were based on dekadal (10-daily) NDVI/AVHRR, dekadal rainfall sums and average monthly air temperatures. The Global Land Cover raster map (GLC2000) was used to select only the NDVI pixels that are related to agricultural land. Provincial wheat yields were assessed with errors varying from 80 to 762 kg ha⁻¹, depending on the province. At national level, wheat yield was predicted at the third dekad of April with 73 kg ha⁻¹ error, using NDVI and rainfall. However, earlier forecasts are possible, starting from the second dekad of March with 84 kg ha⁻¹ error, at least 1 month before harvest. At the provincial and national levels, most of the yield variation was accounted for by NDVI. The proposed models can be used in an operational context to early forecast wheat yields in Morocco.     

Winter wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine based on Earth observation,meteorological data and biophysical models

Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250 m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in April–May provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2–3 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in April–May that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3 t ha⁻¹ in June and 0.4 t ha⁻¹ in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.5–0.6 t ha⁻¹ in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 2–3 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets.     

Yield Estimation Model and Water Productivity of Wheat Crop (Triticum aestivum) in an Irrigation Command Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Crop yield estimation has an important role on economy development and its accuracy and speed influence yield price and helps in deciding the excess or deficit production conditions. The water productivity evaluates the irrigation command through water use efficiency (WUE). Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used for crop yield and water productivity estimation of wheat crop (Triticum aestivum) grown in Tarafeni South Main Canal (TSMC) irrigation command of West Bengal State in India. One IRS P6 image and four wide field sensor (WiFS) images for different months of winter season were used to determine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) for area under wheat crop. The temporally and spatially distributed spectral growth profile and AREASUM of NDVI (A_NDVI) and SAVI (A_SAVI) with time after sowing of wheat crop were developed and correlated with actual crop yield of wheat (Y_act). The developed relationships between A_SAVI and Y_act resulted high correlation in comparison to that of A_NDVI. Using the developed model the RS based wheat yield (Y_RS) predicted from A_SAVI varied on entire TSMC irrigation command from 22.67 to 33.13 q ha⁻¹ respectively, which gave an average yield of 26.50 q ha⁻¹. The RS generated yield based water use efficiency (WUE_YRS) for water supplied from canal of TSMC irrigation command was found to be 6.69 kg ha⁻¹ mm⁻¹.     

Non-destructive estimation of potato leaf chlorophyll from canopy hyperspectral reflectance using the inverted PROSAIL model

Optimizing nitrogen (N) fertilization in crop production by in-season measurements of crop N status may improve fertilizer N use efficiency. Hyperspectral measurements may be used to assess crop N status by estimating leaf chlorophyll content. This study evaluated the ability of the PROSAIL canopy-level reflectance model to predict leaf chlorophyll content. Trials were conducted with two potato cultivars under different N fertility rates (0–300 kg N ha⁻¹). Canopy reflectance, leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll and N contents were measured. The PROSAIL model was able to predict leaf chlorophyll content with reasonable accuracy later in the growing season. The low estimation accuracy earlier in the growing season could be due to model sensitivity to non-homogenous canopy architecture and soil background interference before full canopy closure. Canopy chlorophyll content (leaf chlorophyll content × LAI) was predicted less accurately than leaf chlrophyll content due to the low estimation accuracy of LAI for values higher than 4.5.     

Estimation of green grass/herb biomass from airborne hyperspectral imagery using spectral indices and partial least squares regression

The main objective was to determine whether partial least squares (PLS) regression improves grass/herb biomass estimation when compared with hyperspectral indices, that is normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and red-edge position (REP). To achieve this objective, fresh green grass/herb biomass and airborne images (HyMap) were collected in the Majella National Park, Italy in the summer of 2005. The predictive performances of hyperspectral indices and PLS regression models were then determined and compared using calibration (n = 30) and test (n = 12) data sets. The regression model derived from NDVI computed from bands at 740 and 771 nm produced a lower standard error of prediction (SEP = 264 g m⁻²) on the test data compared with the standard NDVI involving bands at 665 and 801 nm (SEP = 331 g m⁻²), but comparable results with REPs determined by various methods (SEP = 261 to 295 g m⁻²). PLS regression models based on original, derivative and continuum-removed spectra produced lower prediction errors (SEP = 149 to 256 g m⁻²) compared with NDVI and REP models. The lowest prediction error (SEP = 149 g m⁻², 19% of mean) was obtained with PLS regression involving continuum-removed bands. In conclusion, PLS regression based on airborne hyperspectral imagery provides a better alternative to univariate regression involving hyperspectral indices for grass/herb biomass estimation in the Majella National Park.     

Using multi-polarization C- and L-band synthetic aperture radar to estimate biomass and soil moisture of wheat fields

Biomass and soil moisture are two important parameters for agricultural crop monitoring and yield estimation. In this study, the Water Cloud Model (WCM) was coupled with the Ulaby soil moisture model to estimate both biomass and soil moisture for spring wheat fields in a test site in western Canada. This study exploited both C-band (RADARSAT-2) and L-band (UAVSAR) Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs) for this purpose. The WCM-Ulaby model was calibrated for three polarizations (HH, VV and HV). Subsequently two of these three polarizations were used as inputs to an inversion procedure, to retrieve either soil moisture or biomass without the need for any ancillary data. The model was calibrated for total canopy biomass, the biomass of only the wheat heads, as well as for different wheat growth stages. This resulted in a calibrated WCM-Ulaby model for each sensor-polarization-phenology-biomass combination. Validation of model retrievals led to promising results. RADARSAT-2 (HH-HV) estimated total wheat biomass with root mean square (RMSE) and mean average (MAE) errors of 78.834 g/m² and 58.438 g/m²; soil moisture with errors of 0.078 m³/m³ (RMSE) and 0.065 m³/m³ (MAE) are reported. During the period of crop ripening, L-band estimates of soil moisture had accuracies of 0.064 m³/m³ (RMSE) and 0.057 m³/m³ (MAE). RADARSAT-2 (VV-HV) produced interesting results for retrieval of the biomass of the wheat heads. In this particular case, the biomass of the heads was estimated with accuracies of 38.757 g/m² (RSME) and 33.152 g/m² (MAE). For wider implementation this model will require additional data to strengthen the model accuracy and confirm estimation performance. Nevertheless this study encourages further research given the importance of wheat as a global commodity, the challenge of cloud cover in optical monitoring and the potential of direct estimation of the weight of heads where wheat production lies.     

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation (R² > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships (R² < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation (R²) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.     

A study on trade-offs between spatial resolution and temporal sampling density for wheat yield estimation using both thermal and calendar time

Within-season forecasting of crop yields is of great economic, geo-strategic and humanitarian interest. Satellite Earth Observation now constitutes a valuable and innovative way to provide spatio-temporal information to assist such yield forecasts. This study explores different configurations of remote sensing time series to estimate of winter wheat yield using either spatially finer but temporally sparser time series (5daily at 100 m spatial resolution) or spatially coarser but denser (300 m and 1 km at daily frequency) time series. Furthermore, we hypothesised that better yield estimations could be made using thermal time, which is closer to the crop physiological development. Time series of NDVI from the PROBA-V instrument, which has delivered images at a spatial resolution of 100 m, 300 m and 1 km since 2013, were extracted for 39 fields for field and 56 fields for regional level analysis across Northern France during the growing season 2014-2015. An asymmetric double sigmoid model was fitted on the NDVI series of the central pixel of the field. The fitted model was subsequently integrated either over thermal time or over calendar time, using different baseline NDVI thresholds to mark the start and end of the cropping season. These integrated values were used as a predictor for yield using a simple linear regression and yield observations at field level. The dependency of this relationship on the spatial pixel purity was analysed for the 100 m, 300 m and 1 km spatial resolution. At field level, depending on the spatial resolution and the NDVI threshold, the adjusted R² ranged from 0.20 to 0.74; jackknifed – leave-one-field-out cross validation – RMSE ranged from 0.6 to 1.07 t/ha and MAE ranged between 0.46 and 0.90 t/ha for thermal time analysis. The best results for yield estimation (adjusted R² = 0.74, RMSE =0.6 t/ha and MAE =0.46 t/ha) were obtained from the integration over thermal time of 100 m pixel resolution using a baseline NDVI threshold of 0.2 and without any selection based on pixel purity. The field scale yield estimation was aggregated to the regional scale using 56 fields. At the regional level, there was a difference of 0.0012 t/ha between thermal and calendar time for average yield estimations. The standard error of mean results showed that the error was larger for a higher spatial resolution with no pixel purity and smaller when purity increased. These results suggest that, for winter wheat, a finer spatial resolution rather than a higher revisit frequency and an increasing pixel purity enable more accurate yield estimations when integrated over thermal time at the field scale and at the regional scale only if higher pixel purity levels are considered. This method can be extended to larger regions, other crops, and other regions in the world, although site and crop-specific adjustments will have to include other threshold temperatures to reflect the boundaries of phenological activity. In general, however, this methodological approach should be applicable to yield estimation at the parcel and regional scales across the world.     

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue,France

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002–2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.     

Monitoring winter wheat growth in North China by combining a crop model and remote sensing data

Both of crop growth simulation models and remote sensing method have a high potential in crop growth monitoring and yield prediction. However, crop models have limitations in regional application and remote sensing in describing the growth process. Therefore, many researchers try to combine those two approaches for estimating the regional crop yields. In this paper, the WOFOST model was adjusted and regionalized for winter wheat in North China and coupled through the LAI to the SAIL–PROSPECT model in order to simulate soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). Using the optimization software (FSEOPT), the crop model was then re-initialized by minimizing the differences between simulated and synthesized SAVI from remote sensing data to monitor winter wheat growth at the potential production level. Initial conditions, which strongly impact phenological development and growth, and which are hardly known at the regional scale (such as emergence date or biomass at turn-green stage), were chosen to be re-initialized. It was shown that re-initializing emergence date by using remote sensing data brought simulated anthesis and maturity date closer to measured values than without remote sensing data. Also the re-initialization of regional biomass weight at turn-green stage led that the spatial distribution of simulated weight of storage organ was more consistent to official yields. This approach has some potential to aid in scaling local simulation of crop phenological development and growth to the regional scale but requires further validation.     

Yield Forecasting of Spring Maize Using Remote Sensing and Crop Modeling in Faisalabad-Punjab Pakistan

Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha^?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha^?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R² of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool.     

Retrieval of wheat leaf area index from AWiFS multispectral data using canopy radiative transfer simulation

Accurate representation of leaf area index (LAI) from high resolution satellite observations is obligatory for various modelling exercises and predicting the precise farm productivity. Present study compared the two retrieval approach based on canopy radiative transfer (CRT) method and empirical method using four vegetation indices (VI) (e.g. NDVI, NDWI, RVI and GNDVI) to estimate the wheat LAI. Reflectance observations available at very high (56 m) spatial resolution from Advanced Wide-Field Sensor (AWiFS) sensor onboard Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) P6, Resourcesat-1 satellite was used in this study. This study was performed over two different wheat growing regions, situated in different agro-climatic settings/environments: Trans-Gangetic Plain Region (TGPR) and Central Plateau and Hill Region (CPHR). Forward simulation of canopy reflectances in four AWiFS bands viz. green (0.52–0.59 μm), red (0.62–0.68 μm), NIR (0.77–0.86 μm) and SWIR (1.55–1.70 μm) were carried out to generate the look up table (LUT) using CRT model PROSAIL from all combinations of canopy intrinsic variables. An inversion technique based on minimization of cost function was used to retrieve LAI from LUT and observed AWiFS surface reflectances. Two consecutive wheat growing seasons (November 2005–March 2006 and November 2006–March 2007) datasets were used in this study. The empirical models were developed from first season data and second growing season data used for validation. Among all the models, LAI-NDVI empirical model showed the least RMSE (root mean square error) of 0.54 and 0.51 in both agro-climatic regions respectively. The comparison of PROSAIL retrieved LAI with in situ measurements of 2006–2007 over the two agro-climatic regions produced substantially less RMSE of 0.34 and 0.41 having more R² of 0.91 and 0.95 for TGPR and CPHR respectively in comparison to empirical models. Moreover, CRT retrieved LAI had less value of errors in all the LAI classes contrary to empirical estimates. The PROSAIL based retrieval has potential for operational implementation to determine the regional crop LAI and can be extendible to other regions after rigorous validation exercise.     

Upscaling plot-scale soil respiration in winter wheat and summer maize rotation croplands in Julu County,North China

Soil respiration (R_s) data from 45 plots were used to estimate the spatial patterns of R_s during the peak growing seasons of winter wheat and summer maize in Julu County, North China, by combining satellite remote sensing data, field-measured data, and a support vector regression (SVR) model. The observed R_s values were well reproduced by the model at the plot scale, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.31 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.73. No significant difference was detected between the prediction accuracy of the SVR model for winter wheat and summer maize. With forcing from satellite remote sensing data and gridded soil property data, we used the SVR model to predict the spatial distributions of R_s during the peak growing seasons of winter wheat and summer maize rotation croplands in Julu County. The SVR model captured the spatial variations of R_s at the county scale. The satellite-derived enhanced vegetation index was found to be the most important input used to predict R_s. Removal of this variable caused an RMSE increase from 0.31 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ to 0.42 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹. Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) content and soil bulk density (SBD) were the second most important factors. Their removal led to an RMSE increase from 0.31 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ to 0.37 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹. The SVR model performed better than multiple regression in predicting spatial variations of R_s in winter wheat and summer maize rotation croplands, as shown by the comparison of the R² and RMSE values of the two algorithms. The spatial patterns of R_s are better captured using the SVR model than performing multiple regression, particularly for the relatively high and relatively low R_s values at the center and northeast study areas. Therefore, SVR shows promise for predicting spatial variations of R_s values on the basis of remotely sensed data and gridded soil property data at the county scale.     

Yield estimation using SPOT-VEGETATION products: A case study of wheat in European countries

In the period 1999–2009 ten-day SPOT-VEGETATION products of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) at 1 km spatial resolution were used in order to estimate and forecast the wheat yield over Europe. The products were used together with official wheat yield statistics to fine-tune a statistical model for each NUTS2 region, based on the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) method. This method has been chosen to construct the model in the presence of many correlated predictor variables (10-day values of remote sensing indicators) and a limited number of wheat yield observations. The model was run in two different modalities: the “monitoring mode”, which allows for an overall yield assessment at the end of the growing season, and the “forecasting mode”, which provides early and timely yield estimates when the growing season is on-going. Performances of yield estimation at the regional and national level were evaluated using a cross-validation technique against yield statistics and the estimations were compared with those of a reference crop growth model. Models based on either NDVI or FAPAR normalized indicators achieved similar results with a minimal advantage of the model based on the FAPAR product. Best modelling results were obtained for the countries in Central Europe (Poland, North-Eastern Germany) and also Great Britain. By contrast, poor model performances characterize countries as follows: Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Hungary. Country level yield estimates using the PLSR model in the monitoring mode, and those of a reference crop growth model that do not make use of remote sensing information showed comparable accuracies. The largest estimation errors were observed in Portugal, Spain and Finland for both approaches. This convergence may indicate poor reliability of the official yield statistics in these countries.     

Farm-Level Yield mapping for precision crop management by linking remote sensing inputs and a crop simulation model

A study aimed at generating wheat yield maps of farmer’s fields by using remote sensing (RS) inputs was undertaken during the rabi season of 1998-99 in six villages of Alipur Block of Delhi State. RS derived leaf area index (LAI) were linked to wheat simulation model WTGROWS by adopting a strategy christened “Modified Corrective Approach”. This essentially uses an empirical relation of grain yield and LAI, which was derived from WTGROWS simulation model by running model for a combination of input resources, management practices and soil types occurring in the area. This biometric relationship was applied to all the wheat fields of the study area for which the LAI was derived from single acquisition of IRS LISS-III data (Jan 27, 99). The LAI-NDVI relation adopted was logarithmic in nature (R²=0.83) and was based on ground measurements of LAI in farmer’s fields in the same area. A comparison of predicted grain yield by the modified corrective approach and actual observed yield for the 22 farmer’s fields showed high correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 597 kg ha^-1 which was 17% of the observed mean yield. Thus linking of RS information and crop simulation model provides an alternative for mapping and forecasting crop yield under highly variable cropping environment of Indian farms, which is a pre-requisite for implementing Precision Crop Management (PCM).     

Wheat crop production estimation using satellite data

This paper reports acreage, yield and production forecasting of wheat crop using remote sensing and agrometeorological data for the 1998–99 rabi season. Wheat crop identification and discrimination using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) ID LISS III satellite data was carried out by supervised maximum likelihood classification. Three types of wheat crop viz. wheat-1 (high vigour-normal sown), wheat-2 (moderate vigour-late sown) and wheat-3 (low vigour-very late sown) have been identified and discriminated from each other. Before final classification of satellite data spectral separability between classes were evaluated. For yield prediction of wheat crop spectral vegetation indices (RVI and NDVI), agrometeorological parameters (ET_max and TD) and historical crop yield (actual yield) trend analysis based linear and multiple linear regression models were developed. The estimated wheat crop area was 75928.0 ha. for the year 1998–99, which sowed ?2.59% underestimation with land record commissioners estimates. The yield prediction through vegetation index based and vegetation index with agrometeorological indices based models were 1753 kg/ha and 1754 kg/ha, respectively and have shown relative deviation of 0.17% and 0.22%, the production estimates from above models when compared with observed production show relative deviation of ?2.4% and ?2.3% underestimations, respectively.     

Remote sensing based yield monitoring: Application to winter wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).     

Sub-pixel classification of SPOT-VEGETATION time series for the assessment of regional crop areas in Belgium

Global time series of low resolution images are available with high repeat frequency and at low cost, but their analysis is hampered by the presence of mixed pixels and the difficulty in locating detailed spatial features. This study examined the potential of sub-pixel classification for regional crop area estimation using time series of monthly NDVI-composites of the 1 km resolution sensor SPOT-VEGETATION. Belgium was selected as test zone, because of the availability of ample reference data in the form of a vectorial GIS with the boundaries and cover type of the large majority of agricultural fields. Two different methods were investigated: the linear mixture model and neural networks. Both result in area fraction images (AFIs), which contain for each 1 km pixel the estimated area proportions occupied by the different cover types (crops or other land use). Both algorithms were trained with part of the reference data and validated with the remainder. Validation was repeated at three different levels: the 1 km pixel, the municipality and the agro-statistical district. In general, the neural network outperformed the linear mixture model. For the major classes (winter wheat, maize, forest) the obtained acreage estimates showed good agreement with the true values, especially when aggregated to the level of the municipality (R² ≈ 85%) or district (R² ≈ 95%). The method seems attractive for wide-scale, regional area estimation in data-poor countries.     

Generation of high spatial and temporal resolution NDVI and its application in crop biomass estimation

Abstract

While data like HJ-1 CCD images have advantageous spatial characteristics for describing crop properties, the temporal resolution of the data is rather low, which can be easily made worse by cloud contamination. In contrast, although Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) can only achieve a spatial resolution of 250 m in its normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) product, it has a high temporal resolution, covering the Earth up to multiple times per day. To combine the high spatial resolution and high temporal resolution of different data sources, a new method (Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Vegetation index Fusion Model [STAVFM]) for blending NDVI of different spatial and temporal resolutions to produce high spatial–temporal resolution NDVI datasets was developed based on Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). STAVFM defines a time window according to the temporal variation of crops, takes crop phenophase into consideration and improves the temporal weighting algorithm. The result showed that the new method can combine the temporal information of MODIS NDVI and spatial difference information of HJ-1 CCD NDVI to generate an NDVI dataset with both high spatial and high temporal resolution. An application of the generated NDVI dataset in crop biomass estimation was provided. An average absolute error of 17.2% was achieved. The estimated winter wheat biomass correlated well with observed biomass (R ² of 0.876). We conclude that the new dataset will improve the application of crop biomass estimation by describing the crop biomass accumulation in detail. There is potential to apply the approach in many other studies, including crop production estimation, crop growth monitoring and agricultural ecosystem carbon cycle research, which will contribute to the implementation of Digital Earth by describing land surface processes in detail.     

Predicting agricultural drought in eastern Rajasthan of India using NDVI and standardized precipitation index

In the present study, prediction of agricultural drought has been addressed through prediction of agricultural yield using a model based on NDVI-SPI. It has been observed that the meteorological drought index SPI with different timescale is correlated with NDVI at different lag. Also NDVI of current fortnight is correlated with NDVI of previous lags. Based on the correlation coefficients, the Multiple Regression Model was developed to predict NDVI. The NDVI of current fortnight was found highly correlated with SPI of previous fortnight in semi-arid and transitional zones. The correlation between NDVI and crop yield was observed highest in first fortnight of August. The RMSE of predicted yield in drought year was found to be about 17.07 kg/ha which was about 6.02 per cent of average yield. In normal year, it was 24 kg/Ha denoting about 2.1 per cent of average yield.