Episodic recharge and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

In semi-arid areas, episodic recharge can form a significant part of overall recharge, dependant upon infrequent rainfall events. With climate change projections suggesting changes in future rainfall magnitude and intensity, groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas is likely to be affected disproportionately by climate change. This study sought to investigate projected changes in episodic recharge in arid areas of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, using three global warming scenarios from 15 different global climate models (GCMs) for a 2030 climate. Two metrics were used to investigate episodic recharge: at the annual scale the coefficient of variation was used, and at the daily scale the proportion of recharge in the highest 1% of daily recharge. The metrics were proportional to each other but were inconclusive as to whether episodic recharge was to increase or decrease in this environment; this is not a surprising result considering the spread in recharge projections from the 45 scenarios. The results showed that the change in the low probability of exceedance rainfall events was a better predictor of the change in total recharge than the change in total rainfall, which has implications for the selection of GCMs used in impact studies and the way GCM results are downscaled.     

Impact of changing climate and land use on the hydrogeology of southeast Australia ∗

Anthropogenic climate change is the Earth's most serious large-scale environmental concern. While the projected changes of global temperatures, rainfall and surface water have been modelled in a sophisticated manner, the impact on groundwater resources is much less well constrained. In southeast Australia, the decrease in rainfall amount and an increase in temperature that are predicted by climate models are generally assumed to reduce the amount of recharge to the groundwater systems. However, the increase in recharge that has resulted from clearing of the native vegetation will almost certainly produce a greater impact on the groundwater system, increasing quantity and potentially improving quality. Additionally, the impact on recharge of changes to rainfall frequency rather than just total amount is not well documented. Overall our understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater systems is insufficiently advanced to make firm predictions. Indirect impacts of climate change, particularly the projected increased demand for groundwater or surface water to supplement surface water supplies also will have a major impact that may be greater than the direct effect of climate change.     

Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in a small catchment in the Black Forest, Germany

Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Groundwater resources have considerable influences on the human population and socioeconomic development of Vietnam and the Mekong River Delta (MRD). This paper presents an overview of the relationship between climate change and groundwater in the MRD, including the challenges, strategies and technical measures. Our results showed that groundwater levels are related to other climate and hydrological variables (i.e., rainfall, river levels, etc.); therefore, the impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of the Mekong delta are significant, especially on groundwater recharge. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that groundwater development in the future should focus on reducing groundwater harvesting, enhancing groundwater quantity by establishing artificial works and exploiting surface water. This study suggests that the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is an effective tool for forecasting groundwater levels in periods of 1 month and 3 months for aquifers in the natural and tidal regime areas of the delta.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia

Climate change has become a major global concern and threatens the security of natural environmental resources, including groundwater, especially for Cambodia. In this study, literature reviews related to climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia were evaluated to address the impact of climate change on the groundwater environment. In Cambodia, global climate change will likely affect available water resources by driving changes in the groundwater recharge and usage pattern. Despite a general increase in the mean annual rainfall, a reduction in rainfall is anticipated during the dry season, which could lead to shortages of fresh water during the dry season. The impact of climate change on water resource environments can significantly affect national economic development. Thus, strategic management plansfor groundwater in response to climate change should be established to ensure the security of water resources in Cambodia.     

Residence times of shallow groundwater in West Africa: implications for hydrogeology and resilience to future changes in climate

Although shallow groundwater (<50 mbgl) sustains the vast majority of improved drinking-water supplies in rural Africa, there is little information on how resilient this resource may be to future changes in climate. This study presents results of a groundwater survey using stable isotopes, CFCs, SF₆, and ³H across different climatic zones (annual rainfall 400–2,000 mm/year) in West Africa. The purpose was to quantify the residence times of shallow groundwaters in sedimentary and basement aquifers, and investigate the relationship between groundwater resources and climate. Stable-isotope results indicate that most shallow groundwaters are recharged rapidly following rainfall, showing little evidence of evaporation prior to recharge. Chloride mass-balance results indicate that within the arid areas (<400 mm annual rainfall) there is recharge of up to 20 mm/year. Age tracers show that most groundwaters have mean residence times (MRTs) of 32–65 years, with comparable MRTs in the different climate zones. Similar MRTs measured in both the sedimentary and basement aquifers suggest similar hydraulic diffusivity and significant groundwater storage within the shallow basement. This suggests there is considerable resilience to short-term inter-annual variation in rainfall and recharge, and rural groundwater resources are likely to sustain diffuse, low volume abstraction.     

地下水对气候变化的敏感性研究进展

地下水是人类生活、生产、生态用水的重要水源。地下水含水层的补给及其开发利用是水资源可持续开发利用与管理的重要组成部分。浅层地下水的补给主要受制于气候变异与变化。气候变化影响研究从地表水扩展至地下水不仅有利于正确地评估可利用的淡水资源,而且对于改进气候模型,更完整的描写水文循环有重要的科学意义。自21世纪以来,欧美等国开始研究不同时空尺度的地下水补给的定量估算方法,并在气候变化对水资源影响的研究中,考虑了气候变化与人类活动对地下水补给的影响。目前在我国,无论对地下水观测资料的诊断分析,或对地下水补给模型的研制都尚属空白或起步阶段。本文对当前国际上研究地下水补给以及地下水对气候变化敏感性的研究现状予以综述,目的是为了推动我国关于气候变化对水资源影响的深入研究。     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Thailand

The average temperature of Thailand is projected to increase by 2-3 °C, and the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 25% and up to 50% in certain areas. The climate change in future is expected to provide changes in hydrological cycle and therefore impacts the groundwater resources too. In this study, we analyzed the general climate change trends and reviewed the groundwater conditions of Thailand. The climate changes, hydrologic variability and the impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability are also discussed based on a national groundwater monitoring program. Currently, there are 864 groundwater monitoring stations and 1 524 monitoring wells installed in Thailand. Moreover, the impact of climate change on groundwater-dependent systems and sectors is also discussed according to certain case studies, such as saline water intrusion in coastal and inland areas. Managing aquifer recharge and other projects are examples of groundwater adaptation project for the future.     

Response of the groundwater system in the Guanzhong Basin (central China) to climate change and human activities

The Guanzhong Basin in central China features a booming economy and has suffered severe drought, resulting in serious groundwater depletion in the last 30 years. As a major water resource, groundwater plays a significant role in water supply. The combined impact of climate change and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater recharge and groundwater levels, as well as degradation of groundwater quality and associated changes in the ecosystems. Based on observational data, an integrated approach was used to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on the groundwater system and the base flow of the river basin. Methods included: river runoff records and a multivariate statistical analysis of data including historical groundwater levels and climate; hydro-chemical investigation and trend analysis of the historical hydro-chemical data; wavelet analysis of climate data; and the base flow index. The analyses indicate a clear warming trend and a decreasing trend in rainfall since the 1960s, in addition to increased human activities since the 1970s. The reduction of groundwater recharge in the past 30 years has led to a continuous depletion of groundwater levels, complex changes of the hydro-chemical environment, localized salinization, and a strong decline of the base flow to the river. It is expected that the results will contribute to a more comprehensive management plan for groundwater and the related eco-environment in the face of growing pressures from intensive human activities superimposed on climate change in this region.     

Impact of climate change on waterlogging and salinity distributions in Huai Khamrian subwatershed, NE Thailand

Regional climate models project significant changes in temperature and rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion over the twenty-first century. The potential impacts of climate change on areas affected by waterlogging and shallow saline groundwater in Northeast Thailand was investigated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimates derived from the hydrologic model HELP3. The focal area is the 154 km² Huai Kamrian subwatershed. Changes in groundwater salinity and waterlogging areas at the middle and end of this century were predicted using the calibrated model. These predictions used the dynamically downscaled PRECIS regional climate change scenarios generated by ECHAM4 GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Recharge rates are predicted to increase as a result of the higher intensity of rainfall. Shallow watertable areas are projected to increase by approximately 23 % from existing conditions during the middle of the century and up to 25 % by the end of this century. Although the precise rate and timing of climate change impacts are uncertain, all of the scenarios clearly point towards an extension in the area of waterlogging and area affected by shallow saline groundwater areas. Given that areas affected by shallow saline watertables are predicted to expand for both climate change scenarios as well as for the base case, it is concluded that climate change will have a significant impact on the area affected by salinity and waterlogging areas for both climate change scenarios. Evaluation of management options that explore the adaptation to saline environments and to means to reduce salt affected areas are required.     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

A comparison of stochastic and deterministic downscaling methods for modelling potential groundwater recharge under climate change in East Anglia, UK: implications for groundwater resource management

Groundwater resource estimates require the calculation of recharge using a daily time step. Within climate-change impact studies, this inevitably necessitates temporal downscaling of global or regional climate model outputs. This paper compares future estimates of potential groundwater recharge calculated using a daily soil-water balance model and climate-change weather time series derived using change factor (deterministic) and weather generator (stochastic) methods for Coltishall, UK. The uncertainty in the results for a given climate-change scenario arising from the choice of downscaling method is greater than the uncertainty due to the emissions scenario within a 30-year time slice. Robust estimates of the impact of climate change on groundwater resources require stochastic modelling of potential recharge, but this has implications for groundwater model runtimes. It is recommended that stochastic modelling of potential recharge is used in vulnerable or sensitive groundwater systems, and that the multiple recharge time series are sampled according to the distribution of contextually important time series variables, e.g. recharge drought severity and persistence (for water resource management) or high recharge years (for groundwater flooding). Such an approach will underpin an improved understanding of climate change impacts on sustainable groundwater resource management based on adaptive management and risk-based frameworks.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in Küçük Menderes River Basin in Western Turkey

Groundwater is an important component of the global freshwater supply and is affected by climate. There is a strong need to understand and evaluate the impacts of climate change over the long term, in order to better plan and manage precious groundwater resources. Turkey, located in Mediterranean basin, is threatened by climate change. The purpose of this study was, through a quantitative overview, to determine the impacts of climate change on the groundwater recharge rates in Küçük Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. According to the data of Ödemi? and Selçuk meteorological stations located in the basin, there is a significantly decreasing trend in precipitation combined with increasing trends in temperature and evaporation observed in 1964–2011. The calculations of groundwater recharge with hydrologic budget method for the observation period showed an approximately 15% decline in groundwater recharge in the basin. Thus, the combined impacts of climate change and excessive groundwater pumping, due to increasing water demand, have caused a significant decline in groundwater levels. Consequently, the proper management of the groundwater resources threatened by climate change requires effective governance to both mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and facilitate the adaptation of sustainable integrated water management policies.     

Groundwater resources assessment using numerical model: A case study in low-lying coastal area

The impacts of climate change and human pressure in groundwater have been greatest threats facing small islands. This paper represents a case study of groundwater responses towards the climate change and human pressures in Manukan Island Malaysia. SEAWAT-2000 was used for the simulations of groundwater response in study area. Simulations of six scenarios representing climate change and human pressures showed changes in hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations. Reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate can alter the bad effects of overdrafts in Manukan Island. In general, reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate are capable to restore and protect the groundwater resources in Manukan Island. Thus, for groundwater management options in Manukan Island, scenario 2 is capable to lessen the seawater intrusion into the aquifer and sustain water resources on a long-term basis. The selection of scenario 6 is the preeminent option during wet season. The output of this study provides a foundation which can be used in other small islands of similar hydrogeological condition for the purpose of groundwater resources protection.     

A methodology for making initial estimates of groundwater recharge from groundwater vulnerability mapping

Recharge to an aquifer can be estimated by first calculating the effective rainfall using a soil moisture budgeting technique, and then by applying a recharge coefficient to indicate the proportion of this effective rainfall that contributes to groundwater recharge. In the Republic of Ireland, the recharge coefficient is determined mainly by the permeability and thickness of the superficial deposits (subsoils) that overlie the country’s aquifers. The properties of these subsoils also influence groundwater vulnerability, and a methodology has been developed for determining the recharge coefficient using the groundwater vulnerability classification. The results of four case studies have been used to develop a quantified link between subsoil permeability, aquifer vulnerability, recharge and runoff. Recharge and runoff coefficients are each classed into three groupings: high, intermediate and low. A high recharge coefficient equates to a low runoff coefficient, and vice versa. A GIS-based tool enables preliminary estimates of recharge to be made using these recharge coefficient groupings. Potential recharge is calculated as the product of effective rainfall and recharge coefficient. The actual recharge is then calculated taking account of the ability of the aquifer to accept the available recharge. The methodology could be applied to other temperate climate zones where the main aquifers have a substantial covering of superficial deposits.     

Climate change and groundwater conditions in the Mekong Region–A review

Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO₂ concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.     

淮北平原降雨入渗补给系数随地下水埋深变化特征

水文地质参数对地下水资源评价起着至关重要的作用。其中,降雨入渗补给系数是影响浅层地下水水量、水质的重要参数。它对研究区域水量转化和水量平衡也十分重要。但是由于受降雨量、土壤类型、植被、地下水埋深等诸多因素的影响,准确判断降雨入渗补给系数存在很大困难。如果没有考虑这些因素的影响,尤其是降雨量和地下水埋深的影响,所推求的降雨入渗补给系数就会存在较大误差。结合安徽省淮北平原区五道沟水文实验站观测的降雨量、地下水补给量、地下水水位资料,利用两种不同的方法推求了不同降雨量等级的次降雨入渗补给系数。根据统计学理论研究了不同降雨量条件下,次降雨入渗补给系数随地下水埋深变化的分布规律,建立了次降雨入渗补给系数与地下水埋深的回归模型,并进行了相应的检验。研究表明,在控制地下水埋深的条件下,次降雨入渗补给系数随地下水埋深的变化符合指数分布;在地下水位自由变动的条件下符合伽玛分布。     

A conceptual approach for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater and related surface waters in cold regions (Finland)

A literature review of the impacts of anticipated climate change on unconfined aquifers is presented, along with a conceptual framework for evaluating the complex responses of surface and subsurface hydrology to climate variables in cold regions. The framework offers a way to conceptualize how changes in one component of the system may impact another by delineating the relationships among climate drivers, hydrological responses, and groundwater responses in a straight-forward manner. The model is elaborated in the context of shallow unconfined aquifers in the boreal environment of Finland. In cold conditions, climate change is expected to reduce snow cover and soil frost and increase winter floods. The annual surface water level maximum will occur earlier in spring, and water levels will decrease in summer due to higher evapotranspiration rates. The maximum recharge and groundwater level are expected to occur earlier in the year. Lower groundwater levels are expected in summer due to higher evapotranspiration rates. The flow regimes between shallow unconfined aquifers and surface water may change, affecting water quantity and quality in the surface and groundwater systems.