1980年以来太湖流域湿地变化及其影响因素分析

明确湿地变化特征及其影响因素是开展湿地管理与保护工作的重要前提。利用1980年、1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年太湖流域的土地利用数据,采用土地利用转移模型、景观指数和地理探测器等方法,研究了太湖流域湿地的时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明,1980年至2020年期间8个时期,随着时间的推移,太湖流域的湿地面积不断减少,湿地面积共减少了6 328.17 km²,其中,水田、滩涂和滩地面积呈减少趋势,河渠和水库坑塘面积呈增加趋势,湖泊面积相对稳定;太湖流域最主要的土地利用变化是大面积水田转变为建设用地,有6 383.90 km²湿地转变为建设用地,其中,有6 230.35 km²水田转变为建设用地;湿地景观形状趋于复杂,景观连通性逐渐降低,各景观类型所占比例趋于均衡化,景观异质性增加;湿地变化是人为因素和自然因素综合作用的结果,人类活动是太湖流域湿地变化最重要的影响因素,土壤类型、地貌类型也是湿地变化的重要影响因素。     

纳木错流域近30 年来湖泊 - 冰川变化对气候的响应

利用1970 航测地形图和1991、2000 年两期卫星影像数据, 人工建立数字高程模型 (DEM), 解译不同时期的湖泊、冰川边界, 在GIS 技术支持下采用图谱的方法, 定量分析了 湖泊、冰川的面积变化情况。结果表明, 自1970~2000 年期间, 纳木错湖面面积从1941.64 km² 增加到1979.79 km², 增加的速率为1.27 km²/a; 流域内冰川的面积从167.62 km² 减少到141.88 km², 退缩速率为0.86 km²/a。其中, 湖面面积在1991~2000 年的增加速率为1.76 km²/a, 明显大于其在1970~1991 年的1.03 km²/a; 而冰川面积在1991~2000 年的退缩速率为 0.97 km²/a, 明显大于其在1970~1991 年的0.80 km²/a。对比该流域前后两个时期的气温、降水和蒸发变化, 发现升温幅度的增加是冰川加速退缩的根本原因, 而湖面的加速扩张主要受冰川的加剧退缩及其引起的融水增加影响, 但与区域降水量略微增加和蒸发量显著减少也具有密切联系。区域降水增加和蒸发减少及其与湖面扩张之间的内在联系仍是一个需要深入探讨的问题。     

喜马拉雅地区叶如藏布流域冰川和冰湖变化遥感监测研究

叶如藏布流域冰川和冰湖众多,冰川融水是当地重要的淡水资源,是冰湖扩张的重要补给,冰湖溃决是当地潜在的自然灾害,因此分析该区域冰川和冰湖的现状与变化特征具有重要的现实意义。基于Landsat系列遥感影像,分析1990—2020年叶如藏布流域冰川和冰湖的分布与变化特征。结果表明：（1） 近30 a来叶如藏布流域冰川面积整体呈退缩趋势,由1990年167.80 km²退缩到2020年128.92 km²,共退缩38.88 km²,年均退缩率为0.77%·a^-1,且研究区冰川主要分布在海拔5800~6400 m之间,集中分布在5°~20°的坡度上。（2） 与冰川变化趋势相反,研究时段冰湖整体表现为扩张趋势,由1990年5.72 km²增加到2020年8.81 km²,30 a共增加3.09 km²,年均增长率为1.80%·a^-1。（3） 冰湖主要分布在海拔5000~5600 m范围内,坡度在0~10°分布面积较多,表碛覆盖型冰川与非表碛覆盖型冰川对冰湖有着不同程度的影响。（4） 1990—2017年叶如藏布流域温度与降水波动较大,温度整体呈上升趋势,降水量则波动下降,导致叶如藏布流域的冰川消融,冰湖扩张。通过上述研究以期为叶如藏布流域地区提供详细的冰川和冰湖面积分布与变化特征基础数据,为防灾减灾提供一定的支撑。     

近40 a来天山台兰河流域冰川资源变化分析

台兰河流域作为阿克苏河的支流,是以冰川融水补给为主的河流,流域面积为1 324 km²。结合1：5万地形图、Landsat ETM+遥感影像及数字高程模型数据,通过综合计算机自动解译及目视解译的方法,将面向对象图像特征提取方法应用到该流域冰川信息提取中,并以影像叠加数字高程模型来提取表碛覆盖区的冰川末端边界,最后参照专家指导意见进行边界的再次修订,得到1972~2011年该流域的冰川变化数据,并分析了过去近40 a来冰川变化特征及其对气候变化的响应过程。结果表明：1972~2011年,台兰河流域冰川退缩明显,冰川总面积从435.44 km²退缩到385.38 km²,减少了50.06 km²,退缩率为11.50%,年均减少约1.25 km²,平均单条冰川面积减小0.31 km²;冰川总条数从113条减少到109条,消失冰川10条,有3条冰川分离成了9条,其余100条冰川都呈减小趋势。结合阿克苏和拜城气象站气象资料分析认为,台兰河流域冰川萎缩与该地区气温快速上升关系密切,气温上升导致的冰川消融在一定程度上抵消了降水增加对冰川的补给。     

1959年来中国天山冰川资源时空变化

基于两期冰川编目数据与气象数据,对天山1959年来冰川资源的时空变化特征进行研究。研究发现：① 天山地区现有冰川7934条,面积7179.77 km²,冰储量756.48 km³。冰川数量以面积< 1 km²的冰川居多,面积以1~10 km²和≥ 20 km²的冰川为主,冰川集中分布在海拔3800~4800 m之间。② 在四级流域中,阿克苏河流域冰川面积最大为1721.75 km²,面积最小的是伊吾河流域,为56.03 km²。在各市（州）中,阿克苏地区冰川资源量最多,其面积和储量分别占天山总量的43.28%和68.85%;冰川资源量最少的市（州）是吐鲁番地区,面积和储量仅占天山总量的0.23%和0.07%。③ 1959年来,天山地区冰川面积减少了1619.82 km²（-18.41%）,储量亏损了104.78 km³（-12.16%）,其中数量以< 1 km²的冰川减少最多,面积减少以< 5 km²的冰川最为严重。④ 冰川变化呈现明显的区域差异,变化速度最快的是天山东段博格达北坡流域,变化最慢的是中部的渭干河流域。初步分析认为夏季气温显著上升带来的消融大于年内降水带来的积累是天山冰川退缩的主要原因。     

5个时期武汉城市圈湿地格局及其变化

以武汉城市圈为研究区,采用叠加分析和景观指数方法,利用2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2018年的土地利用矢量数据,在ArcGIS10.2软件和Fragstats4.2软件平台上,分析5个时期武汉城市圈湿地格局的特征及其变化。研究结果表明,2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2018年,武汉城市圈中的湿地主要分布在中西部,湖泊多分布在中部,水库/坑塘多分布在中西部,沼泽主要分布在河流和湖泊的周边;湿地总面积在2010年达到最大,为6 337.52 km~2;5个时期武汉城市圈中的湿地都以湖泊湿地、水库/坑塘、河流湿地为主,前两个时期湖泊湿地的面积相对最大,后三个时期水库/坑塘的面积相对最大;在5个时期中,2010年研究区湿地景观相对最破碎,随着时间的推移,湿地景观边缘形状复杂化,景观形状趋于不规则;水库/坑塘的质心向西偏移了7.716 km,湖泊湿地的质心向东略偏南偏移了7.565 km,河流湿地的质心总体上向西偏移,沼泽湿地总体向南偏移了4.180 km。     

近46年松木希错流域冰川和湖泊变化及原因分析

采用1:5万地形图、Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像及数字高程模型数据,利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,并结合狮泉河、和田和于田3个气象站点1968-2013年的气温、降水量数据对松木希错流域的冰川、湖泊面积变化及其原因进行分析。结果表明：① 1968-2013年流域冰川面积不断退缩,由139.25 km²减少至137.27±0.02 km²,共减少1.98±0.02 km²,减少百分比为1.42%,2001年以后冰川退缩速度加快;② 1968-2013年松木希错面积不断扩张,由25.05 km²增加至32.62±0.02 km²,共扩张7.57±0.02 km²,扩张百分比为30.22%,且2001年之后扩张速率加快,在年代际上与冰川的退缩具有较好的耦合性;③ 1968-2013年湖面潜在蒸散量减少和降水增加分别是导致湖泊扩张的第一和第二影响因素,而升温引起的冰川、冻土融水增加有一定贡献,但影响较小且在年际尺度上不显著。     

1990-2011年西昆仑峰区冰川变化的遥感监测

本文应用Landsat 5、7 TM、ETM+影像分析1990-2011年昆仑山西段昆仑峰区冰川变化特征,结果表明:1990-2011年冰川面积减少16.83 km²,退缩率仅为0.65%,冰川退缩趋势不明显。单条冰川变化有进有退,中峰冰川末端在2002-2004年以661 m/a的速率前进,初步判定为跃动冰川。1991-1998年,崇测冰川面积增加9.47 km²,冰川末端以200 m/a的速率前进,不排除有跃动冰川的可能性。尽管近年来全球气温普遍上升,大量冰川处于退缩状态,但统计已有研究结果发现近50年来青藏高原存在冰川长度、面积增加,冰川物质平衡为正的现象,表现出冰川对气候变化复杂的反馈机制。通过分析气象站点和冰芯资料,研究区周边地区气温上升、降水量缓慢增加可能是冰川微弱退缩的原因之一;增强的西风环流带来更多的降水、研究区以极大陆型大规模冰川为主,也可能是冰川退缩幅度较小的原因。     

近50 年气候变化背景下中国冰川面积状况分析

根据近年来中国典型区域冰川面积变化遥感监测数据,结合139 个地面站的气温、降水量与28 个探空站的0 ℃层高度气象资料,分析了近50 年气候变化背景下中国冰川面积状况。结果表明,研究区冰川面积从20 世纪60-70 年代的23982 km²减小到21 世纪初的21893 km²,根据冰川分布进行加权计算后冰川面积退缩了10.1%,对时间插补后得到1960 年以来的冰川面积年均变化率为0.3 % a^-1。就冰川面积变化的空间分布特征而言,天山的伊犁河流域、准噶尔内流水系、阿尔泰山的鄂毕河流域、祁连山的河西内流水系等都是冰川退缩程度较高的区域。近50 年中国冰川区夏季地面气温与大气0 ℃层高度均呈上升趋势,而降水量的增幅却相对轻微,增长的降水量不足以抵消升温对冰川的影响,气候变暖是影响冰川面积变化的主要因素。     

清末以来洞庭湖区通江湖泊的时空演变

本文利用清光绪22年以来17个时段的多种历史地图和航天航空遥感数据,采用遥感解译、数据统计分析与历史对比方法,分析清末以来洞庭湖区通江湖泊面积的时序变化,探究空间演变特征。结合水利部门发布的典型年份监测数据,检验了遥感获取的湖泊面积精度,误差仅为0.62%。结果显示：洞庭湖通江湖泊面积从1896年的5216.37 km²减少到2019年的2702.74 km²,萎缩率为48.19%。1949年前的53年为明显萎缩期,年均萎缩15.66 km²;20世纪50年代为陡崖式萎缩期,年均萎缩139.05 km²;20世纪60—70年代为快速萎缩期,年均萎缩21.66 km²;1980年以来为基本稳定期,年均萎缩0.13 km²,面积仅减少了5.10 km²。就具体湖泊而言,东洞庭湖是各通江湖泊中面积萎缩最大的湖泊,减幅为922.60 km²;其次是目平湖,减幅为588.05 km²;再次是南洞庭湖,减幅为448.37 km²;七里湖的面积变化很小,但经历了先扩张后萎缩的过程。1998—2002年实施“退田还湖”工程,洞庭湖面积增加了10.50 km²。总体而言,清末以来洞庭湖区通江湖泊的演变主要表现为大通湖的封闭析出、整修南洞庭湖的湖垸置换与南迁、围垦西洞庭湖的局部残存、东洞庭湖的三面合围以及1998年特大洪灾后有限的“退田还湖”。本文为长江流域生态修复和环境保护战略提供了客观资料和技术支撑。     

Inventory of Glaciers in Mongolia,Derived from Landsat Imagery from 1989 to 2011

Glaciers in the Altai Mountains of Mongolia provide an estimated 11% of the total water resources within the country. Yet, their number and area in inconsistent. Using satellite imagery acquired from Landsat 4, 5, and 7, and SRTM digital elevation model (DEM) data, we present here an intuitive, robust, and inexpensive methodology to map the exposed ice of glaciers in the Altai Mountains for the period 1989 to 2011. The total glacierized area was 515 km² in 1989/1991, 428 km² in 1998/2001, and 372 km² in 2010/2011; it decreased by 17% from 1989/1991 to 1998/2001, 13% from 1998/2001 to 2010/2011, and 28% for the entire period 1989/1991 to 2010/2011. In analyzing a sub‐sample of 260 glaciers, 6% advanced, 11% were stable, and 83% receded from 1989 to 2011. The glacier dataset is available to the public free of charge at the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) website.     

RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River Basin,Northwest China,during the recent decades

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. 1：50,000 topographic map data, Landsat TM/ETM＋ remote sensing images and digital elevation model data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier outline information. Glaciers change data were derived from analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/1963–2007/ 2011 were also analyzed. The results show that：（1） In the period 1956/1963–2007/2011, the Heihe River Basin＇s glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km2 to 231.17 km~2; shrinking at a rate of 36.08%, with average single glacier area decrease 0.14 km~2; the total number of the glaciers decreased from 967 to 800.（2） Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300–4400 m, 4400–4500 m and 4500–4600 m; and there are significant regional differences in glaciers distribution and glaciers change.（3） Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin has a higher rate.（4） Analysis of the six meteorological stations＇ annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 suggests that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising, besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to     

中亚天山山区冰雪变化及其对区域水资源的影响

冰川和积雪是构成山区固体水库的主体,对区域水资源稳定性具有调节功能,但深受气候变化的影响。以中亚天山为研究区域,基于长时间序列的观测数据,分别从冰川、积雪、水储量、径流等方面进行分析,并选取阿克苏河、开都河及乌鲁木齐河3个典型流域,研究天山山区冰雪变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明：① 冰川退缩速率与面积的函数关系为f（x） = -0.53×x^-0.15 （R² = 0.42,RMSE = 0.086）,说明小型冰川对气候变化的响应更为敏感。同时,中低海拔区域的冰川退缩速率大于高海拔区域;② 2003-2015年天山山区水储量的递减速率为-0.7±1.53 cm/a,天山中部区域的递减速率最大,这一结果与该区域冰川急剧退缩相吻合;③ 近半个多世纪以来,冰雪融水径流增加是这3个典型流域径流量增加的主要原因,其中阿克苏河增幅最大（达0.4×10⁸ m³/a）。但自20世纪90年代中期以来,3个流域的径流量都呈减少趋势,与流域内冰川面积减少、厚度变薄及平衡线海拔升高的关系密切。研究结果揭示了气候变化驱动下的山区固态水体储量变化对流域水资源的影响机制,以期为流域水资源管理提供有价值的决策参考。     

Moraine-dammed glacial lake changes during the recent 40 years in the Poiqu River Basin, Himalayas

Glacier retreat is not only a symbol of temperature and precipitation change, but a dominating factor of glacial lake changes in alpine regions, which are of wide concern for high risk of potential outburst floods. Of all types of glacial lakes, moraine-dammed lakes may be the most dangerous to local residents in mountain regions. Thus, we monitored the dynamics of 12 moraine-dammed glacial lakes from 1974 to 2014 in the Poiqu River Basin of central west Himalayas, as well as their associated glaciers with a combination of remote sensing, topographic maps and digital elevation models (DEMs). Our results indicate that all monitored moraine-dammed glacial lakes have expanded by 7.46 km² in total while the glaciers retreated by a total of 15.29 km² correspondingly. Meteorological analysis indicates a warming and drying trend in the Nyalam region from 1974 to 2014, which accelerated glacier retreat and then augmented the supply of moraine-dammed glacial lakes from glacier melt. Lake volume and water depth changed from 1974 to 2014 which indicates that lakes Kangxico, Galongco, and Youmojanco have a high potential for outburst floods and in urgent need for continuous monitoring or artificial excavation to release water due to the quick increase in water depths and storage capacities. Lakes Jialongco and Cirenmaco, with outburst floods in 1981 and 2002, have a high potential risk for outburst floods because of rapid lake growth and steep slope gradients surrounding them.     

青藏高原内陆湖泊过去40年变化研究（英文）

Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding their variation is crucial for accurate evaluation and prediction of changes in water supply and for retrieval and analysis of climatic information. Data from previous research on 35 alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were used to investigate changes in lake water level and area. In terms of temporal changes, the area of the 35 alpine lakes could be divided into five groups: rising, falling-rising, rising-falling, fluctuating, and falling. In terms of spatial changes, the area of alpine lakes in the Himalayan Mountains, the Karakoram Mountains, and the Qaidam Basin tended to decrease; the area of lakes in the Naqu region and the Kunlun Mountains increased; and the area of lakes in the Hoh Xil region and Qilian Mountains fluctuated. Changes in lake water level and area were correlated with regional changes in climate. Reasons for changes in these lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed, including precipitation and evaporation from meteorological data, glacier meltwater from the Chinese glacier inventories. Several key problems, e.g. challenges of monitoring water balance, limitations to glacial area detection, uncertainties in detecting lake water-level variations and variable region boundaries of lake change types on the Tibetan Plateau were discussed. This research has most indicative significance to regional climate change.     

Changes in inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years

Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding their variation is crucial for accurate evaluation and prediction of changes in water supply and for retrieval and analysis of climatic information. Data from previous research on 35 alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were used to investigate changes in lake water level and area. In terms of temporal changes, the area of the 35 alpine lakes could be divided into five groups: rising, falling-rising, rising-falling, fluctuating, and falling. In terms of spatial changes, the area of alpine lakes in the Himalayan Mountains, the Karakoram Mountains, and the Qaidam Basin tended to decrease; the area of lakes in the Naqu region and the Kunlun Mountains increased; and the area of lakes in the Hoh Xil region and Qilian Mountains fluctuated. Changes in lake water level and area were correlated with regional changes in climate. Reasons for changes in these lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed, including precipitation and evaporation from meteorological data, glacier meltwater from the Chinese glacier inventories. Several key problems, e.g. challenges of monitoring water balance, limitations to glacial area detection, uncertainties in detecting lake water-level variations and variable region boundaries of lake change types on the Tibetan Plateau were discussed. This research has most indicative significance to regional climate change.     

Changes in glacial lakes and glaciers of post-1986 in the Poiqu River basin, Nyalam, Xizang (Tibet)

Glacial lakes and glaciers are sensitive indicators of recent climate change. In the Poiqu River basin of southern Tibet, 60–100 km NW of Mt. Everest, Landsat imagery defines post-1986 changes in the size and distribution of both glacial lakes and glaciers. Total area of glaciers in the 229-km² drainage area has decreased by 20%. The number of glacial lakes with areas in excess of 0.020 km² has increased by 11%, and the total area of glacial lakes has increased by 47%. The areas of typical large glacial lakes of the area (Galongco, Gangxico, and Cirenmaco) have increased by 104, 118, and 156%, respectively, and these increases are confirmed by field investigations.Comparing the 1986 data, the area of glaciers in the basin headwaters has decreased by 46.18 km² to a present total area of 183.12 km², an annual rate of change of 3.30 km²/year. Trends indicate that the total area of glaciers will continue to decrease and that both the numbers and areas of glacial lakes will continue to increase. Accompanying these trends will be an increased risk of debris flows, formed by entrainment of sediment in glacial-outburst floods and in surges from both failure and avalanche- and landslide-induced overtopping of moraine dams. Based on both the local and world-wide history of catastrophes from flows of these origins, disaster mitigation must be planned and appropriate engineering countermeasures put in place as soon as possible.     

Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half-century: Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory

Glaciers are the most important fresh-water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of western China. According to the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory (SCGI), primarily compiled from Landsat TM/ETM+ images, the Qilian Mountains had 2684 glaciers covering an area of 1597.81±70.30 km2 and an ice volume of ~84.48 km³ from 2005 to 2010. While most glaciers are small (85.66% are <1.0 km²), some larger ones (12.74% in the range 1.0–5.0 km²) cover 42.44% of the total glacier area. The Laohugou Glacier No.12 (20.42 km²) located on the north slope of the Daxue Range is the only glacier >20 km² in the Qilian Mountains. Median glacier elevation was 4972.7 m and gradually increased from east to west. Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains are distributed in Gansu and Qinghai provinces, which have 1492 glaciers (760.96 km²) and 1192 glaciers (836.85 km²), respectively. The Shule River basin contains the most glaciers in both area and volume. However, the Heihe River, the second largest inland river in China, has the minimum average glacier area. A comparison of glaciers from the SCGI and revised glacier inventory based on topographic maps and aerial photos taken from 1956 to 1983 indicate that all glaciers have receded, which is consistent with other mountain and plateau areas in western China. In the past half-century, the area and volume of glaciers decreased by 420.81 km² (–20.88%) and 21.63 km³ (–20.26%), respectively. Glaciers with areas <1.0 km² decreased the most in number and area recession. Due to glacier shrinkage, glaciers below 4000 m completely disappeared. Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains presented a clear longitudinal zonality, i.e., the glaciers rapidly shrank in the east but slowly in the central-west. The primary cause of glacier recession was warming temperatures, which was slightly mitigated with increased precipitation.     

气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

本文结合资料分析和文献阅读,对全球气候变化背景下的中亚天山山区水文、水资源变化进行了讨论分析。在全球升温滞缓背景下,中亚天山山区在过去的10余年,气温却一直处于高位态波动状态;气候变暖及持续高位态波动加剧了山区冰川和积雪等固态水体的消融,导致山区降雪率降低,天山山区降雪率从1960-1998年的11%~24%降低到2000年以来的9%~21%,有97.52%的冰川表现为退缩状态,水储量呈明显减少趋势,减小幅度约为-3.72 mm/a;气候变暖直接影响区域水循环和水系统的稳定性,引起径流补给方式和水资源数量的改变,加大了水资源时空分布的不确定性。天山山区在短时期内因冰雪融水增多,会出现径流量增加现象。但在未来气候持续变暖、降水条件维持不变的条件下,河川径流量将会出现减少趋势。     

1973-2010年阿尔金山冰川变化

利用1973 年MSS、1999 年ETM+和2010 年TM遥感影像资料,通过遥感图像处理和GIS技术,提取了阿尔金山地区三个时期的冰川信息,同时结合周边气象资料进行分析。结果表明:① 1973-2010 年,研究区冰川面积从347.99 km² 减少到293.77 km²,退缩了54.22km²,占1973 年冰川总面积的15.58%,年均退缩速率为0.42%·a^-1。近10 年来冰川退缩尤为剧烈,年均退缩速率达到0.58%·a^-1;② 研究区东段冰川退缩速率快于中段和西段;③ 冰川规模越小,退缩越明显;④ 研究区东坡冰川的面积退缩率最大,北坡次之,东南坡最小;⑤ 气温升高和降水在波动中变化不大是造成研究区冰川退缩的主要原因;⑥ 通过分形理论对研究区冰川空间结构特征进行分析,预计研究区冰川今后的消融速率仍将处于较高状态。