Seismic microzonation for Penang using geospatial contour mapping

Shear wave velocity (V _s) and the fundamental site period of the subsurface condition are the primary parameters that affect seismic soil amplification in particular sites. Within the topmost layer of the soil, which measures 30 m, the average shear wave velocity V _s30 is commonly used to build codes for site classification for the design of earthquake-resistant structures and to conduct microzonation studies. In this study, the development of a microzonation map for V _s30 distribution, National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program V _s30 site classification, and a fundamental site period for Penang are presented. The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) test was conducted for more than 50 sites with available borehole data to develop the microzonation maps. The ten selected V _s profiles measured by MASW show a good correlation with the data obtained using empirical correlations in a previous study. The highest V _s values were identified at the northeastern and southeastern parts of Penang Island, corresponding to the shallow bedrock and the outcrop zone. Conversely, the lowest V _s values were found in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the Penang mainland owing to the thick layer of soft clay and silt deposits. The site period map shows the variation in site periods, with the highest value of 1.03 s at the western part of the Penang mainland and the lowest value of 0.02 s at the eastern part of the Penang Island. The microzonation maps developed in this study are vital to studies on seismic hazard and earthquake mitigation programs in Malaysia.     

A newly developed seismic microzonation model of Erbaa (Tokat, Turkey) located on seismically active eastern segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)

A methodology to model seismic microzonation maps is required in the hazard mitigation decision plans of the earthquake prone areas. The stage of disaster preparedness for new residential places is of great importance for detailed seismic microzonation models. The effects of local geological and geotechnical site conditions were considered in order to establish site characterization as the initial stage of the models in this study. Dynamic soil properties based on the empirical correlations between shear wave velocity (V _s) and standard penetration test blow counts were taken into account in order to define representative soil profiles extending down to the engineering bedrock. One-dimensional site response analyses were performed to analyze earthquake characteristics on the ground surface. The layers for soil classification, geology, depth to groundwater level, amplification, distance to fault, slope and aspect, and liquefaction-induced ground deformation potential of the study area were prepared in seismic microzonation models. The study area, Erbaa, is placed along the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone. Final seismic microzonation map of the study area was evaluated applying different GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Two of the MCDA techniques, simple additive weighting and analytical hierarchical process (AHP), are considered during the evaluation step of the final seismic microzonation map. The comparison is made in order to distinguish two different maps based on these MCDA techniques. Eventually, AHP-based seismic microzonation map is more preferable for the seismic design purposes in this study.     

Site classification of Pondicherry using shear-wave velocity and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio

Site classification studies play a vital role in earthquake hazard assessment since in situ ground conditions substantially affect the characteristics of incoming seismic waves during earthquakes. Flat areas along the coast and rivers generally consist of thick layers of soft clay and sand. Such deposits amplify certain frequencies of ground motion, thereby attributing to an increase in the damage due to an earthquake. Hence, site classification studies have been carried out using shear-wave velocity, ground response, and corresponding amplification at 83 locations in Pondicherry, a coastal city in India. The present study is aimed at estimating the shear-wave velocity through multichannel analysis of surface waves and to compute the average shear-wave velocity (V _S ³⁰ ), stiffness, and N values using empirical relations. Further, site-response studies (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) were conducted to estimate the ground-response frequencies and corresponding amplifications through Nakamura technique. From the results, the study area was classified into three types, i.e., C-class: with V _S ³⁰ in the range of 360–760 m/s, D-class: with V _S ³⁰ in the range of 180–360 m/s, and E-class: with V _S ³⁰  < 180 m/s following the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Programme norms (BSSC in NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structures (FEMA 450), part 1: provisions. Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, 2003). Finally, a site classification map for Pondicherry region has been prepared, which can be used in urban planning and strengthening of existing structures against future earthquakes.     

GIS-based multi-criteria earthquake hazards evaluation using analytic hierarchy process for a nuclear power plant site,west Alexandria,Egypt

Nuclear power plants are designed to prevent the hazardous effects of the earthquakes and any external events to keep the safety of the plant. Ninety-one shallow seismic refraction profiles were performed to determine shear wave velocity of the engineering layers at the site of El Dabaa area that is situated to the northern coastline of Egypt for seismic hazard microzonation evaluation according to hazard index values. A microzonation is a procedure of delineating an area into individual zones having different ranks of numerous seismic hazards. This will aid in classifying areas of high seismic risk which is vigorous for industrial design of nuclear structures. The site response analysis requires the characterization of subsurface materials considering local subsurface profiles of the site. Site classification of the area under investigation was undertaken using P- and S-waves and available borehole data. The studied nuclear power plant site has been characterized as per NEHRP site classification using an average velocity of transverse wave (V _s ³⁰ ) of depth 30 m which acquired from seismic survey. This site was categorized into two site classes: the major one is “site class B,” and the minor one is “site class A.” The attenuation coefficient, the damping ratio and the liquefaction potential are geotechnical parameters which were derived from P- and S-waves, and have their major effects on the seismic hazard contribution. 1D ground response analysis was carried out in the places of seismic profiles inside the site for estimating the amount of ground quaking using peak ground acceleration (PGA), site amplification, predominant frequency and spectral accelerations on the surface of ground by the DEEPSOIL software package. Seven factors (criteria) deliberated to assess the earthquake hazard index map are: (1) the peak ground acceleration at the bedrock, (2) the amplification of the site, (3) the liquefaction potential, (4) the main frequency of the earthquake signal, (5) the average V _s of the first 30 m from the ground surface, (6) the depth to the groundwater and (7) the depth to the bedrock. These features were exemplified in normalized maps after uniting them to 0–1 scores according to some criteria by the minimum and maximum values as linear scaling points. Multi-criteria evaluation is an application of multi-criteria decision analysis theory that used for developing a seismic hazard index map for a nuclear power plant site at El Dabaa area in ArcGIS 10.1 software. Two models of decision making were used in this work for seismic hazard microzonation. The analytic hierarchy process model was applied to conduct the relative weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison using Expert Choice Software. An earthquake hazard index map was combined using Weighted Linear Combination model of the raster weighted overlay tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The results indicated that most of the study site of the nuclear power plant is a region of low to moderate hazard; its values are ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.     

Ground motion studies for microzonation in Iran

An important step in effectively reducing seismic risk and the vulnerability of a city located in an earthquake prone area is to conduct a ground motion microzonation study for the desired return period. The International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) initiated a number of seismic microzonation projects for Iran. This paper presents the steps followed by IIEES in ground motion microzonation. IIEES performs both probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. IIEES uses his own fault map for seismotectonic studies and develops modulus and damping curves for the soils in the study area. The experience of ground motion microzonation shows that in almost all cases, the estimated 475-year peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are higher than the PGA proposed by the Iranian seismic code. Although ground motion microzonation in Iran has some shortcomings, IIEES is making new improvement. This includes development in deterministic seismic hazard analysis, two-dimensional and three-dimensional modelling of basin and topographical effects, using microtremor measurements to find shear-wave velocity profiles in high-density urban areas and providing maps for spectral acceleration in the study area.     

Microtremor study for evaluating the site response characteristics in the Surat City of western India

The Surat City, which is the second most populated city in the state of Gujarat in western India, warrants site-specific seismic hazard assessment due to its rapid urbanization and proximity to major seismogenic zones. This study reports results of microtremor investigations at 72 single stations and 4 arrays in an area of 325 km² spanning the city. The resonant frequencies, associated peak amplification values and liquefaction vulnerability indices were deduced from the horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Ground amplification (A_HVSR) in the range of 3.0–5.0 was observed in the 2.0–4.0-Hz frequency band at most of the sites. A secondary A_HVSR between 2.0 and 3.0 is also observed in the 6.0–7.0-Hz frequency band at a few sites. Locales that are most susceptible to liquefaction are identified based on their vulnerability index (K _g) exceeding the value of 10. The shear wave velocities (V _s) ≥ 500 m/s inferred from array measurements occur at 38 m depth in the western part and ~16 m depth in the eastern part of city. The response spectra estimated from strong motion data recorded at an accelerograph site in Surat from three earthquakes of M _w ≥ 3.2 that occurred in Kachchh, Saurashtra and Narmada regions are in accordance with our inferences of characteristic site frequencies and amplification. Our results, in agreement with the damage scenario during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, provide valuable inputs for site-specific seismic hazard evaluation of the Surat City.     

Modeling of strong ground motions for 1991 Uttarkashi, 1999 Chamoli earthquakes, and a hypothetical great earthquake in Garhwal–Kumaun Himalaya

In this study, stochastic finite fault modeling is used to simulate Uttarkashi (1991) and Chamoli (1999) earthquakes using all available source, path, and site parameters available for the region. These two moderate earthquakes are recorded at number of stations of a strong motion network. The predicted peak ground accelerations at these stations are compared with the observed data and the ground motion parameters are constrained. The stress drop of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes is constrained at 77 and 65?bars, respectively, whereas the quality factor Q _C is 112 $ f^{0.97} $ and 149 $ f^{0.95} $ for these two regions. The high-frequency attenuation parameter Kappa is in the range 0.04?C0.05. The constrained ground motion parameters are then used to simulate Mw 8.5 earthquake in central seismic gap region of Himalaya. Two scenarios are considered with epicenter of future great earthquake at locations of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes using above constrained parameters. The most vulnerable towns are the towns of Dehradun and Almora where expected PGA is in excess of 600?cm/s² at V_S30 520?m/s when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Uttarkashi (1991) earthquake. The towns of Shimla and Chandigarh can expect PGA close to 200?cm/s². Whereas when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Chamoli (1999) earthquake, the towns of Dehradun and Almora can expect PGA of around 500 and 400?cm/s², respectively, at V_S30 620?m/s. The National Capital Region, Delhi can expect accelerations of around 80?cm/s² in both the cases. The PGA contour maps obtained in this study can be used to assess the seismic hazard of the region and identify vulnerable areas in and around central Himalaya from a future great earthquake.     

Variations in shear wave velocity and soil site class in Kolkata city using regression and sensitivity analysis

The detrimental effects of an earthquake are strongly influenced by the response of soils subjected to dynamic loading. The behavior of soils under dynamic loading is governed by the dynamic soil properties such as shear wave velocity, damping characteristics and shear modulus. Worldwide, it is a common practice to obtain shear wave velocity (V _s in m/s) using the correlation with field standard penetration test (SPT) N values in the absence of sophisticated dynamic field test data. In this paper, a similar but modified advanced approach has been proposed for a major metro city of eastern India, i.e., Kolkata city (latitudes 22°20′N–23°00′N and longitudes 88°04′E–88°33′E), to obtain shear wave velocity profile and soil site classification using regression and sensitivity analyses. Extensive geotechnical borehole data from 434 boreholes located across 75 sites in the city area of 185 km² and laboratory test data providing information on the thickness of subsoil strata, SPT N values, consistency indices and percentage of fines are collected and analyzed thoroughly. A correlation between shear wave velocity (V _s) and SPT N value for various soil profiles of Kolkata city has been established by using power model of nonlinear regression analysis and compared with existing correlations for other Indian cities. The present correlations, having regression coefficients (R ²) in excess of 0.96, indicated good prediction capability. Sensitivity analysis predicts that significant influence of soil type exists in determining V _s values, for example, typical silty sand shows 30.4 % increase in magnitude of V _s as compared to silt of Kolkata city. Moreover, the soil site classification shows Class D and Class E category of soil that exists typically in Kolkata city as per NEHRP (Recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structures—Part 1: Provisions. Prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Report FEMA 450), Washington, DC, 2003) guidelines and thereby highlighting the seismic vulnerability of the city. The results presented in this study can be utilized for seismic microzonation, ground response analysis and hazard assessment for Kolkata city.

     

Seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka and its applications to the M = 6.6 earthquake of 6 October 1987

The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

u

The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km³. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s².

Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO₃ and H₃BO₃ concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.

     

Earthquake hazard in Northeast India — A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M _W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.     

Seismic microzonation of Bangalore,India

In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard considering local site effects by carrying out detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization in Bangalore, India to develop microzonation maps. An area of 220 km², encompassing Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BMP) has been chosen as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of Bangalore are addressed in three parts: in the first part, estimation of seismic hazard is done using seismotectonic and geological information. Second part deals with site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis (using the program SHAKE2000) using both standard penetration test (SPT) data and shear wave velocity data from multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) survey. Further, field experiments using microtremor studies have also been carried out for evaluation of predominant frequency of the soil columns. The same has been assessed using 1-D ground response analysis and compared with microtremor results. Further, the Seed and Idriss simplified approach has been adopted to evaluate the soil liquefaction susceptibility and liquefaction resistance assessment. Microzonation maps have been prepared with a scale of 1:20,000. The detailed methodology, along with experimental details, collated data, results and maps are presented in this paper.     

Road density as a proxy for population density in regional-scale risk modeling

This paper examines the use of road network data as a proxy for interpreting population density, which is of use in regional-scale qualitative risk assessment for natural hazards. Comparison of available road network and population data at various scales in Ontario and Quebec yields a best-fit relationship of D _P  = 28 D _R ² . Analysis of available high-resolution topographic data for the Caribbean island nation of Saint Lucia suggests similar power law trends, with expected population density in Saint Lucia roughly half that of Canada for the same road density. Together, these findings suggest that D _P  ~ 10–30 D _R ² may represent a useful range broadly applicable for a wide variety of geographic, climactic and socioeconomic settings. The Canadian relationship has been used to generate a population density model for the lowlands of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, and this model has been compared with the spatial distribution of seismic hazard to develop a qualitative seismic risk map. The seismic risk map, presented primarily for illustrative purposes, shows elevated seismic risk in urban centers in the study area, and along a predominantly rural area east of Quebec City on both shores of the Saint Lawrence River.     

Hydrotalcite-like solid solutions with variable SO 4 2− and CO 3 2− contents at 50° C

Hydrotalcite-like solid solutions have been synthesized by coprecipitation in basic solutions with variable SO ₄ ^2? /CO ₃ ^2? ratios. Chemical determination of CO ₃ ^2? in the interlayer was impossible because of the presence of minor hydromagnesite. SO ₄ ^2? was determined both by chemical analysis and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), the two methods giving similar results. A Raman spectrometry gave additional data on the SO ₄ ^2? /CO ₃ ^2? ratio. Then, the stoichiometry of the anionic interlayers, X _s , X _c , and X _OH were determined, and the influence of X _s on the c′ parameter (increasing from c′=7.97 Å to c′=8.63 Å between X _s =0 and X _s =1) was characterized. In addition, a partitioning curve of SO ₄ ^2? and CO ₃ ^2? between aqueous solutions and hydrotalcite-like compounds was established. Its general shape strongly suggests a miscibility gap between a sulfate-rich end and a carbonate-rich solid solution (maximum SO ₄ ^2? /CO ₃ ^2? about 0.2). This result explains why most of the hydrotalcites synthesized during experimental alteration of basaltic glasses by sea-water (a sulfate-rich solution) are CO ₃ ^2? -rich solid solutions.     

Seismic hazard assessment and mitigation in India: an overview

The Indian subcontinent is characterized by various tectonic units viz., Himalayan collision zone in North, Indo-Burmese arc in north-east, failed rift zones in its interior in Peninsular Indian shield and Andaman Sumatra trench in south-east Indian Territory. During the last about 100 years, the country has witnessed four great and several major earthquakes. Soon after the occurrence of the first great earthquake, the Shillong earthquake (M _w: 8.1) in 1897, efforts were started to assess the seismic hazard in the country. The first such attempt was made by Geological Survey of India in 1898 and since then considerable progress has been made. The current seismic zonation map prepared and published by Bureau of Indian Standards, broadly places seismic risk in different parts of the country in four major zones. However, this map is not sufficient for the assessment of area-specific seismic risks, necessitating detailed seismic zoning, that is, microzonation for earthquake disaster mitigation and management. Recently, seismic microzonation studies are being introduced in India, and the first level seismic microzonation has already been completed for selected urban centres including, Jabalpur, Guwahati, Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmadabad, Dehradun, etc. The maps prepared for these cities are being further refined on larger scales as per the requirements, and a plan has also been firmed up for taking up microzonation of 30 selected cities, which lie in seismic zones V and IV and have a population density of half a million. The paper highlights the efforts made in India so far towards seismic hazard assessment as well as the future road map for such studies.     

Source parameters and scaling relations for small earthquakes in the Kachchh region of Gujarat,India

The scaling relationships for stress drop and corner frequency with respect to magnitude have been worked out using 159 accelerograms from 34 small earthquakes (M _w 3.3–4.9) in the Kachchh region of Gujarat. The 318 spectra of P and S waves have been analyzed for this purpose. The average ratio of P- to S-wave corner frequency is found to be 1.19 suggestive of higher corner frequency for P wave as compared to that for S wave. The seismic moments estimated from P waves, M ₀(P), range from 1.98 × 10¹⁴ N m to 1.60 × 10¹⁶ N m and those from S waves, M ₀(S), range from 1.02 × 10¹⁴ N m to 3.4 × 10¹⁶ N m with an average ratio, M ₀(P)/M ₀(S), of 1.11. The total seismic energy varies from 1.83 × 10¹⁰ J to 2.84 × 10¹³ J. The estimated stress drop values do not depend on earthquake size significantly and lie in the range 30–120 bars for most of the events. A linear regression analysis between the estimated seismic moment (M ₀) and corner frequency (f _c) gives the scaling relation M ₀ f _c ³  = 7.6 × 10¹⁶ N m/s³. The proposed scaling laws are found to be consistent with similar scaling relations obtained in other seismically active regions of the world. Such an investigation should prove useful in seismic hazard and risk-related studies of the region. The relations developed in this study may be useful for the seismic hazard studies in the region.     

Regional seismic hazard study for the eastern Mediterranean (Trans-Jordan,Levant and Antakia) and Sinai region

The aim of this study is to assess the seismic hazard in the eastern Mediterranean and Sinai region using a probabilistic approach. An updated earthquake catalogue for the period 1 to 1993 AD that covers the area between latitude 27°–37°N and longitude 32°–39°E, has been used. Using the new seismic-tectonic map for the area, 10 line-sources are delineated. These lines or fault zones are thought to represent the main sources for the seismic potential in the area. The results are demonstrated as iso-contour lines of the peak-ground acceleration. The iso-acceleration contours represent 90% probability that these peak values will not be exceeded over periods of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively. This study concludes that the seismic hazard severity is highest along the Jordan Dead Sea transform fault system, namely from south of the Gulf of Aqaba, Dead Sea-Jordan River, Tiberia Lake, Rachaya, Ed Damur, Yammuneh Fault, and Ghab Fault in the north. For the 50 year iso-contour map, the major cities of Amman, Damascus, and Beirut lay around the 2 m s⁻² contour line, while Jerusalem lies along the 3 m s⁻² line. Antakia in Turkey has the highest seismic potential severity (around 5 m s⁻²) while in Cyprus the maximum hazard is expected to reach 4 m s⁻² for the coming 50 years.     

Seismic hazard across Bulgaria and neighbouring areas: extreme magnitude recurrence and strong ground shaking

A contemporary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) study for Bulgaria and the surrounding Balkan area is performed under constraints of a newly developed, fit-for-purpose historical earthquake catalogue and the theory of extreme values. Sensitivity analyses are first adopted as preparatory reviews on subsets of the adopted data to determine suitable values for the constraints of cut-off magnitude threshold, sample extreme interval and start year of catalogue data to impose on the parent database for both the full region considered as well as significant urban centres within it. Maximum estimates are then determined for magnitude recurrence hazard using Gumbel’s third asymptotic extreme values distribution for return periods of 50 and 100 years, and also these time intervals at 90 % probability of not being exceeded (PNBE). Gumbel’s first asymptotic extreme values distribution is also used with carefully selected, geographically relevant ground motion models for peak horizontal ground acceleration, PGA(h), and peak horizontal ground velocity, PGV(h), for the same return periods. The former provides direct comparison with the current EUROCODE 8 anti-seismic building code standard promoted across Europe, the previous GSHAP and SESAME hazard mapping projects as well as a number of recent studies. Sofia is forecast an upper bound magnitude of 7.33 M _w (±0.78) compared with 7.31 M _w (±0.55) for the full Balkan extent and 7.24 M _w (±0.70) for the political triple junction area of southwest Bulgaria, viz., Bulgaria, Greece and The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Sofia is also forecast a 475-year return period (equivalent to a 50-year return period at 90 % PNBE) magnitude of 7.27 M _w, with an equivalent PGA (the standard EUROCODE 8 metric) of 156 cm s^?2 and PGV of 13 cm s^?1.     

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Constantine region,Northeast of Algeria

This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M _l, m _b) and intensities (I ₀, I _MM, I _MSK and I _EMS) were converted to M _s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M _max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir

The seismic hazard study for Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir has been conducted by using probabilistic approach in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in m/s² and also seismic hazard response spectra for different cities. A new version of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005) ground acceleration model is used, and parameterization is based on most recent updated earthquake catalogs that consisted of 14,000 events. The threshold magnitude was fixed at M _w 4.8, but seismic zones like northern Pakistan–Tajikistan, Hindukush and northern Afghanistan–Tajikistan border had M _w 5.2. The average normalized ‘a’ and ‘b’ values for all zones are 6.15 and 0.95, respectively. Seismicity of study area was modeled, and ground motion was computed for eight frequencies (0.025, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 s) for different annual exceedance rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, 0.002 and 0.001 (return periods 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years) for stiff rocks at the gridding of 0.1° × 0.1°. Seismic hazard maps based on computed PGA for 0.02, 0.01 and 0.002 annual exceedance are prepared. These maps indicate the earthquake hazard of Pakistan and surrounding areas in the form of acceleration contour lines, which are in agreement with geological and seismotectonic characteristics of the study area. The maximum seismic hazard values are found at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Quetta areas.