湛江地区一次冷锋型海雾微物理特征

利用2010年3月31日—4月2日冷锋天气系统影响下湛江海雾综合观测资料,分析了海雾的微物理特征及海雾过程中气溶胶粒子谱的演变特征。结果表明,海雾的生消与风场密切相关,海雾生成和发展与较强的ESE气流相联系,而弱的NE气流则会促使海雾减弱或消散。湛江海雾的雾滴数浓度为100~102cm-3,液态含水量为0.001~0.232 g·m-3,雾滴平均半径小于10μm,雾滴峰值半径多位于1.4μm。海雾雾滴谱分布以单调递减谱为主,谱宽超过20μm,且雾发展过程中雾滴谱谱宽存在突然增宽和迅速减小的现象。海雾过程中雾滴数浓度的变化主要是由半径小于5μm的雾滴数密度变化引起的。海雾过程对气溶胶粒子的湿清除效果并不显著,雾过程中粒径小于0.1μm和大于4μm的气溶胶粒子数密度显著减少,但在雾消散后又迅速恢复到雾发生前的水平。     

南京北郊冬季大气气溶胶及其湿清除特征研究

利用WPS(宽范围颗粒粒径谱仪)、雨滴潜仪和雾滴谱仪测量了2007～2008年冬季南京北郊大气气溶胶数浓度谱分布和降水强度,分析了气溶胶粒子的分布特征以及气溶胶粒径与湿清除系数的关系.结果表明:气溶胶粒子具有明显的双峰型R变化特征,数浓度主要集中在0.02～O.2μm粒径范围内,受汽车尾气排放、混合层高度变化以及颗粒物水平输送的影响较大.降雨、降雪和雾过程都对气溶胶粒子有不同程度的清除,降雨和浓雾对核模态和粗模态的气溶胶粒子的清除能力显著,降雪对粒径小于0.03μm的气溶胶粒子的清除能力较强.     

辐射雾雾滴谱拓宽的微物理过程和宏观条件

为研究南京雾的物理化学过程,2006～2007年冬季,在南京信息工程大学(原南京气象学院)院内进行了雾的外场综合观测实验,共获得27次雾过程资料,其中有22次过程进行了全过程不间断的雾滴谱和湍流观测.根据雾滴谱分布特征可以将辐射雾分为宽谱辐射雾(都为强浓雾,最大直径大于40μm)和窄谱辐射雾(多为浓雾,最大直径小于22...     

鄂西电线积冰微物理观测研究

对2009年2月25日—3月4日湖北恩施雷达站的一次电线积冰过程,使用自动气象站、能见度仪、雾滴谱仪、雨滴谱仪等实测资料进行深入研究,分析了多种气象要素的演变,发现积冰期比无积冰期平均气温低5.6℃。对积冰期间3种天气状况下雾滴谱和降水粒子谱的特征进行了分析,结果表明:雾天和雨天的雾滴谱为单峰型,雨夹雪天为双峰型;雨天和雨夹雪天的降水粒子谱都为单峰型;雾滴平均数密度从大到小依次是:雨天(223.5 cm-3)、雨夹雪天(181.3 cm-3)、雾天(138.7 cm-3);雨天雨滴平均数密度为335.6 cm-3;雨夹雪天降水粒子平均数密度为1 502.1 cm-3。另外,实测数据表明积冰增长率从大到小依次是:雨夹雪天、雨天、雾天。     

2006年12月南京连续4天浓雾的微物理结构及演变特征

2006年12月24-27日南京地区出现了连续4天的浓雾天气,其中能见度小于50 m的强浓雾持续了40多个小时.利用FM-100型雾滴谱仪,连续观测了雾滴谱、数密度和含水量等微物理参量.结合自动气象站及能见度仪观测资料,分析了这次浓雾过程的微物理特征,并与1996年观测结果进行对比:雾滴的平均含水量和平均直径与1996年观测结果相当,含水量最大值比1996年观测结果大4倍,数密度比10年前小.认为前2个子过程的雾滴数密度、含水量很高,造成了南京奉次大雾能见度长时间低于50 m的恶劣天气.结合边界层探空资料,认为形成这种强浓雾的主要原因足近地层持续存在强盛的水汽平流,具有平流雾的特征.根据雾微物理参量的起伏变化,将浓雾过程分成4个子过稃,分析并比较了4个子过程的雾滴谱分布,总过程的谱分布及4个子过程的谱分布都服从Dcirmendjian分布,谱型都基本呈指数下降,雾滴主要集中存小滴段.最后,对第一个子过程微物理参量的变化特征进行了细致分析.发现这次浓雾是在夜间晴空辐射降温后形成的,午夜最强,日出后随着气温的升高逐渐减弱,反映了辐射雾的口变化特征.另外,还发现雾形成以后,开始变化不大,但随着进一步辐射降温,地面雾团不断产牛,雾爆发性发展.     

江苏北部不同等级雾的微物理结构及个例分析

利用2015—2017年秋冬季在江苏北部观测到12次雾过程的雾滴谱数据及常规气象观测资料,统计分析了轻雾、大雾、浓雾、强浓雾和特强浓雾等级下的微物理特征量及雾滴谱分布,并通过一次雾过程的分析,探讨了不同雾等级下的主要微物理过程。结果表明:随着雾等级的提升,雾滴数浓度、含水量增长明显,而轻雾、大雾和浓雾的雾滴平均直径和最大直径差异不大,但当能见度小于200 m时,平均直径和最大直径显著增大;能见度下降时,平均数浓度谱和含水量谱的谱线上抬,从浓雾到强浓雾,粒径大于10 μm的大雾滴增长明显;雾滴数浓度主要由小雾滴控制,雾滴含水量受大雾滴影响;东海县郊平均的雾滴含水量与南京观测结果相差不大,但雾滴数浓度仅为南京的一半左右,平均直径大约是南京的2.3倍;个例分析中,能见度从1000 m下降到50 m,凝结核活化并凝结增长是主要微物理过程,但可凝结水汽是影响该过程效果的一个重要因子,可使雾滴数浓度和平均直径呈现不同的相关关系;能见度降到50 m以下时,碰并过程效果显著;日出后雾滴蒸发作用显现并逐步增强。      

一次南海海雾微物理结构个例分析

本文利用2010年3月22～23日广东省湛江市一次海雾过程的雾滴谱和能见度资料,分析了海雾的微物理特征及微物理参量(数浓度、液态含水量和平均直径)之间的相关性,并讨论了影响海雾的主要物理过程。结果表明:湛江地区海雾的平均雾滴谱符合Junge分布;在海雾发展和成熟阶段,雾滴谱拓宽过程以及数浓度与平均直径的正相关关系表明本次海雾过程主要以雾滴活化和凝结增长过程为主;湍流过程的参与使得雾滴混合均匀,雾滴平均直径向3.5 μm附近集中,趋向平均化。同时湍流使雾体内部和外部空气交流,外部空气的凝结核核化,数浓度升高,凝结增长造成小雾滴变大。     

厦门春季海雾天气分类及典型个例宏微观结构分析

利用2013年3月23日—4月22日外场观测得到8次海雾过程的能见度、雾滴谱、自动气象站资料及常规气象资料和NCEP全球分析资料,对厦门春季海雾宏微观过程进行了分析。结果表明,形成厦门海雾的天气形势主要为3类:冷锋型、低压倒槽型、高压入海型。厦门海雾对应区域存在0~1℃气海温差,这对海雾预报具有重要意义。对2013年4月17—18日典型海雾个例研究表明,西南气流强烈的增湿作用触发了海雾生成,为本次海雾发展提供了充沛的水汽条件。本次海雾平均雾滴谱拟合符合Junge分布;对其微物理量(数浓度、液态水含量、平均半径)演变特征分析表明,主导的微物理过程为核化凝结增长和可逆的蒸发过程。     

人工消雾试验中的雾微物理响应

2009 年11—12 月在天津市武清区实施了两次消雾外场试验。11 月6—7 日,利用燃烧烟条的方式播撒吸湿性焰剂对暖雾实施催化;11 月30 日—12 月1 日,利用播撒液氮的方式实施冷雾消雾试验。对两次消雾试验期间雾的微物理观测资料分析发现,雾对催化有明显响应,具体表现为:雾滴浓度先增后减且变化剧烈,液态水含量、雾滴大小等微物理特征量也发生了显著变化;催化期间雾滴谱均出现了谱宽加大的现象,催化结束后谱宽恢复至催化前状态;催化效应导致出现了处于不同发展阶段的雾滴,雾滴谱发生了单峰分布和双峰分布间的变换:催化前滴谱为单峰分布,催化期间出现双峰谱;多个短时双峰谱反复出现;首个双峰谱出现后,滴谱逐渐由单调递减向单峰、双峰转变;催化结束后,滴谱由双峰谱恢复为单峰谱。分析认为:催化后暖雾中发生成熟过程(Ripening Process),而冷雾催化后则启动了贝吉隆过程(Bergeron process)。      

降水对雾中能见度参数化的影响

雾的能见度是雾滴数浓度和含水量的函数,可以利用雾滴数浓度和含水量进行参数化得到能见度拟合值。但是当雾中有降水存在时,降水会影响雾滴数浓度和含水量,进而影响能见度参数化。2009年1月19日至3月5日在湖北恩施雷达站进行了包括雾微物理特征、雨滴谱及雨滴末速度、能见度以及基本气象要素的观测。利用不同的能见度参数化公式得到能见度拟合值,并与实测值进行对比分析,考虑雾中降水影响时的能见度拟合值要比不考虑降水时的能见度偏差大,因此在有降水伴随雾产生时,降水的效应可忽略不计。同时,利用40％的雾滴谱观测数据建立了良好的模型用于拟合当地的能见度,并利用Gultepe公式得到相应的参数,对当地的能见度进行了计算和预报。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.