三门峡库尾的泥沙淤积及其解决途径的建议

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天文学的秘密

2012年6月1日,《科学》(Science)杂志在"新闻焦点"栏目中发表了8篇评论,总标题为"天文学的秘密"。由资深编辑A.Cho,Y.Bhattacharjee,E.Cartlidge,D.Clery,及R.A.Kerr编写,题目分别是:(1)什么是暗能量?(2)暗物质有多热?(3)丢失的重子到何处去了?(4)恒星如何爆炸?(5)为什么宇宙重新电离?(6)最高能量的宇宙     

邹城市果树需冷量的研究

利用Utah加权模型,研究了邹城市常见的葡萄、桃、杏品种的需冷量.结果表明：不同树种、品种的需冷量差异显著.葡萄的需冷量较高,为1070～1820c.u.桃和杏较低,分别为750～910c.u和770～920c.u.各树种、品种的需冷量年际间均有差异.葡萄、杏不同品种需冷量的高低与果实成熟期的关系表现为成熟期早,需冷量低;成熟期晚,需冷量高.但桃树不同品种的需冷量高低与果实发育期长短无明显相关关系.     

日食影响旱涝的机制与检验

日食增加大气的有效位能.日食区形成高压.气流下沉.非日食区形成低压,气流上升.形成附加的降水,降水使气压再降低,副高向此低压中心靠近;反之副高受高压的推斥,从而改变副高的正常位置.影响我国夏季的旱涝.     

全球气候变化问题的对策之我见

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内蒙古农业干旱的成因与减灾对策

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带有Le'vy噪声的中立型神经网络的反馈控制

针对延迟中立型神经网络系统,研究了反馈控制问题.考虑了带有Le''vy噪声的中立型神经网络,建立了一个适当的Lyapunov函数.通过Lyapunov分析方法并使用一般性Itô公式和LMI技术,得到了闭环系统的均方稳定性准则.最后,通过数值例子证实本文方法的有效性.     

冷迳流的稳定性及其解析解的分析

本文利用相法讨论了y方向无限伸延的冷迳流方程.首先发现其非线性项作用由于z方向上的补偿作用而消失,即其相空间的方程是四阶线性常微分方程.利用Hurwitz方法分析其稳定时,证明了唯有中性大气符合冷迳流的稳定性条件.其解析解的趋势表明与观测结果类似.     

新疆春季寒害的研究

从普查资料入手,研究了新疆春季寒害的年型,得出了春寒倒春寒的系统指标.并进一步分析了春寒年、倒春寒年的分布规律.从而对全疆各地春季的农业气候条件进行了比较.着重分析了春季植棉气候条件的优劣.     

关于Marty定则的一个注记

证明了一个正规定则,改进了F. Marty、李松鹰和谢晖春、R. Aulaskari和P. Lappan等人的结果.     

金融领域的随机建模与基于软件R的Monte Carlo模拟(2):Cox-Ross-Rubinstein模型

主要讨论了 Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) 模型和广义的CRR模型,并研究了如何基于CRR模型和广义的CRR模型利用Monte Carlo模拟计算资产价格以及期权价值.     

金融领域的随机建模与基于软件R的Monte Carlo模拟(4):随机微分方程模型

主要研究线性随机微分方程模型,为此定义Itô随机微积分,建立Itô公式.鉴于研究的重点是利用R软件进行数值模拟,所以详细讨论了过去10多年来随机微分方程数值解的研究.     

金融领域的随机建模与基于软件R的MonteCarlo模拟(3):随机对数线性模型

主要研究了随机对数线性(SLL)模型以及如何基于SLL模型计算欧式期权平均收益.此外,还演绎了资产价格的Monte Carlo模拟.     

Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall’s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong.     

Catastrophic Outcomes in the Economics of Climate Change

Monte Carlo simulations by Tol (2003) suggest that there is a small but positive probability that climate change will impose catastrophic impacts on future society unless sufficient steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper critically evaluates this finding and its implications for policy analysis and decision-making.     

ENSO Frequency Asymmetry and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Observations and 19 CMIP5 Models

Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), the El Ni o(EN) and La Ni a(LN) events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN(LN) events the positive(negative) SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive(negative) PDO phases than in negative(positive) phases. Meanwhile,the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more(58% less) frequent than LN in positive(negative)PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data.     

蒙特卡罗方法在降水评估中的应用研究

预报检验重点关注预报与观测间的综合统计特征用以探讨模式预报性能,而统计显著性检验方法是衡量评估结论的重要指标,是判断预报效果改进与否的有效手段.当前诸多重要检验指标如降水技巧评分等由于不满足正态分布特征均难以采用简单的计算方式获得置信区间以衡量检验指标的误差特征,因此难以正确判断通过统计检验所获得的评估差异是真实反映模式预报效果差异或是由检验样本的不确定性所造成.蒙特卡罗方法可通过样本重构获取正态分布的统计样本从而有效地解决这一问题.采用2015年8月的T639模式及GRAPES全球预报模式24 h降水预报产品,使用中国区域2400站日降水资料作为实况,重点研究蒙特卡罗方法在统计显著性检验中的应用特征,分析不同蒙特卡罗重构次数对检验结果的收敛性.结果表明10 000次蒙特卡罗重构后统计指标可满足正态分布,而通过显著性检验分析后可明显区分预报系统间降水评分差异的统计特征.     

闪电的光辐射能分布特征

对TRMM卫星上装载的闪电成像仪(LIS)所获取的闪电光辐射能进行了分析,发现在不同地区和不同的空间、时间尺度上闪电光辐射能都很好地遵循对数正态分布。文中利用了一个国际上公认的一维雷暴云起电和放电模式,对闪电放电中和的电荷量进行了数值模拟。蒙特卡罗算法表明,闪电放电所中和的电荷量也遵循对数正态分布,云中的软雹浓度、破碎系数、温度递减率、放电的电场阈值等参量的综合作用可以对其进行较好的解释,而其中任意一种参量的单独作用则不然。     

带权网络的个性化PageRank计算

PageRank是衡量网络节点重要性的指标之一,个性化PageRank是普通PageRank的推广形式.目前关于(个性化)PageRank的研究主要集中在无权网络,而关于带权网络的研究结果较少.有鉴于此,基于矩阵变换和蒙特卡罗方法,分别给出了在静态和动态带权网络中个性化PageRank计算方法,并从理论上分析了算法的性能.实验结果显示,两种算法都优于传统的幂迭代算法.     

Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

Time-irreversible symmetry is a fundamental property of nonlinear time series. Time-irreversible behaviors of mean temperature measured on 182 stations over China from 1960 to 2012 are analyzed by directed horizontal visibility graph (DHVG for short), and significance of results has been estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. It is found that dominated time irreversibility emerges in nearly all daily temperature anomaly variations over China. Further studies indicate that these time-irreversible behaviors result from asymmetric distributions of persistent daily temperature increments and decrements, and this kind of symmetry can be quantified by distributions of consecutive daily mean temperature increasing or decreasing steps. At the same time, the findings above have been confirmed by artificially generated time series with given value of multiscale asymmetry.