H2释放扰动电离层的数值模拟

由于电离层中分子性离子与电子的复合要比氧离子与电子的复合快得多,因此H₂在电离层高度释放可有效地引起电子的消耗。本文基于一个包括中性气体扩散方程和离子化学反应方程的二维动力学模型,对H₂在电离层高度释放过程进行了数值模拟研究,并分析了不同释放条件下的电子扰动特性。结果表明:1)500 mol H₂释放后,迅速向周围空间扩散,释放中心处的电子密度30 s内下降了近4%,F₂层临界频率下降了1%左右;2)在不同高度处释放H₂时,最大的电子密度相对变化率并不是在峰值高度附近处释放时出现的;3)释放化学物质的量越多,电子密度的扰动幅度也越大,但两者之间并不存在线性关系;4)相同量的H₂在电离层峰值高度处释放,白天的电子密度扰动幅度要大于夜间的扰动幅度。     

基于卫星和雷达资料的FAST冰雹云特征分析及识别指标初探

利用风云2号卫星TBB资料、多普勒天气雷达和常规观测资料,分析了近10a影响中国天眼FAST的7次冰雹个例的降雹持续时间、冰雹直径、移动速度等特征,揭示了其源地和移动路径,并初步建立基于卫星和雷达的FAST冰雹识别指标。结果表明：影响FAST冰雹主要发生在春季的傍晚到夜间,冰雹云从初生到降雹平均时间为112 min,平均移动速度为45.5 km/h,降雹持续时间主要为2 min左右,冰雹直径以小于等于10 mm的小冰雹和中冰雹为主;冰雹云源地主要在安顺市,移动路径为西北和偏西路径为主。在降雹前1 h,FAST区域TBB呈西南—东北走向分布,云团中心TBB＜46 ℃,TBB梯度密集的对流区会产生降雹;降雹前30 min识别指标为Z_max≥55 dBz,VIL_max≥30 kg/m²,H_{45 dBz}≥8 km,H_45dBz- H_0℃＞4 km,H_45dBz- H_-20℃＞1 km。     

基于频谱空间的高分辨率遥感图像城市道路绿地轮廓特征检测

通过高分辨率遥感图像频谱能量特征分析,提出了一种基于频谱空间的城市道路绿地轮廓特征检测方法.首先对遥感图像进行傅里叶变换,分析频谱能量分布曲线,确定道路绿地轮廓的方向和截止频率,设计Gabor滤波器提取绿地轮廓特征;然后利用低通滤波获取道路中心线,根据道路中心线的缓冲区对绿地轮廓进行定位,得到道路绿地轮廓特征.结果表明,基于图像频谱特征分析的方法,使滤波器参数的设计更加精确,可有效实现高分辨率遥感图像城市道路绿地轮廓特征提取.     

基于哨兵2A数据的北京松柏分布及花粉致敏风险评估初步研究

开展北京松柏植被的高分辨率空间信息提取及其花粉致敏风险评估对花粉浓度监测及预报具有重要意义。本文利用2019—2020年冬季304景高分辨率哨兵2A号（Sentinel 2A）卫星影像,引入新型增强型归一化植被指数（Enhanced normalized Vegetation Index,EVI）和地表水分指数（Land Surface Water Index,LSWI）,开展了10 m空间分辨率的北京松柏植被分布制图研究;同时依据风险评估原理,结合2020年北京松柏花粉浓度观测数据,建立了基于松柏植被分布的花粉致敏风险空间评估方法,并初步开展了影响松柏花粉浓度范围与花粉致敏风险空间评估研究。结果表明：①基于冬季合成晴空Sentinel 2A卫星影像,利用EVI和LSWI可有效提取北京10 m空间分辨率的松柏植被分布,用户精度可达80%以上;②松柏花粉观测站14 km范围内松柏植被对该站花粉浓度具有正贡献,其中6 km范围内的松柏植被贡献最大;③松柏花粉致敏相对高风险区主要分布在西北部山区、昌平北部以及门头沟东部、石景山西北和海淀西南等地区。     

基于Logistic方法构建的中国降雪判定方法研究

基于中国区域逐日降雪、降水、气温、相对湿度、气压和风速等观测数据,构建了中国区域的Logistic降雪判定方法,并对该方法和当前广泛应用的其他降雪判定方法在中国区域的适用性展开对比研究。结果表明,单温度阈值法和S曲线法对[-3,4] ℃气温区间内的降雪模拟不确定性相对较大。比较而言,Logistic拟合的系列方法成功率更高,对中国不同区域降雪识别也更为稳健,尤其是对青藏高原地区降雪事件的识别效果明显优于其他方法。在Logistic方法中,温度和相对湿度对降雪判定起决定作用,而气压和风速的影响相对较小。Logistic湿球温度方案(LogT_w)和气温+相对湿度方案(LogT_aH_R)均能很好地再现降雪量的空间分布和年际变化特征,且相应偏差均小于其他方法;总体上,这两种方案对降雪量识别效果差别不大。因此,可使用LogT_w方案或LogT_aH_R方案对中国区域降雪事件进行判别,尤其是对模式中降雪事件的识别。     

基于TM数据的湿地变化分析—以磴口县为例

利用2001、2006、2010年的TM遥感图像,采用目视解译的方法对磴口县湿地面积进行提取,结合气象数据,并对其变化进行分析。结果表明,2000—2010年,磴口县年降水呈现不及30a(1981—2010年)平均值的年份明显偏多,7—8月平均气温逐年上升;除内陆滩涂面积有所减少外,河流水体、湖泊坑塘水体以及湿地植被面积都有不同程度的增加,变化速率分别为2.06%、0.85%和4.65%,以湿地植被面积增加最为迅速。     

海南岛和厦门红树林湿地CH4 排放的时空变化

研究了海南岛和厦门的河口海岸红树林湿地、海岸光滩及红树林伐迹地CH4排放的时空变化。海南岛长宁站位海莲林连续两年的CH4排放率均表现为外滩>中滩>内滩的空间变化模式,与土壤含水量的空间变化一致,而与土壤盐度的空间变化相反;但1997年在其余五个红树林湿地的CH4排放率表现出不同的空间变化规律,且大多与土壤理化因子不呈对应关系。各红树林湿地的最低CH4排放率均出现在冬季。红树林湿地年CH4排放率高于海岸光滩而低于红树林伐迹地。     

拒绝服务攻击下网络化控制系统的基于观测器输出反馈控制

本文考虑了拒绝服务攻击下的网络化控制系统的H_∞输出反馈控制问题.拒绝服务攻击的特征表现为能量有限和周期类型,它攻击无线网络通道进而退化系统性能.在系统状态部分未知的前提下,为了保证被控系统的稳定性和H_∞性能指标,通过设计基于观测器输出反馈控制器,使得网络化控制系统在丢包和拒绝服务攻击下仍然保持稳定和预定性能.最后数值例子验证了所设计的控制器是有效的.     

湖北省PM2.5质量浓度遥感估算与时空分布特征

针对地面站点稀疏不足以提供高空间覆盖、高空间分辨率的面域PM_2.5数据支撑区域细颗粒物污染防治的问题,以湖北地区2015-2017年的MODIS卫星遥感气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）产品数据为主预测量,结合温度、湿度、风速、压强等气象参数和植被指数数据等辅助预测量,建立了AOD-PM_2.5关系逐日变化的线性混合效应（LME）模型,用于估算湖北地区的PM_2.5浓度水平.利用十折交叉验证方法进行了模型精度评估.结果表明：1）2015-2017年的交叉验证R²分别达到0.89、0.85和0.88,利用MODIS AOD数据反演近地面PM_2.5质量浓度的线性混合效应模型能很好地用于区域细颗粒物遥感监测;2）省内PM_2.5质量浓度空间差异显著,鄂东、鄂南和鄂北高,鄂西北和鄂东南低;3）全省PM_2.5估算时空数据年均值呈下降态势,分别为65.6±39.8、57.1±34.1和48.1±28.3 μg/m³,各市除随州、咸宁2016、2017年年均值持平外,都呈下降趋势.     

基于植被覆盖度地表温度的深层土壤湿度遥感反演

摘要：利用ＭＯＤＩＳ影像数据,在地表温度和植被覆盖度（T_s/F_г）特征空间基础上反演了江苏省仪征地区２００４年５月、９月和１１月４０ｃｍ土壤湿度。反演结果显示,５月土壤湿度值最大,９月次之,１１月最小。５月土壤湿度高值区主要位于南部靠近长江沿岸地区和北部谷底平原地区,低值区主要位于中部缓岗丘陵地区。利用实测资料进行模型检验表明,本研究反演出的土壤湿度精度较高,遥感反演的４０ｃｍ土壤湿度的平均相对误差达７.６％。

     

基于知识与规则的红树林遥感信息提取

针对难以将红树林同陆地植被,尤其是同水体与陆地植被混合像元有效识别的现象,结合TM影像提取了能有效反映红树林湿地特征的绿度指数和湿度指数,同其他常用的NDVI、TM3/TM5、TM5/TM4等指数相比:绿度指数和湿度指数更能有效地提高红树林同陆地植被,尤其是同水体与植被混合像元的可分性.采用知识与规则方法提取红树林遥感信息,与其他学者常采用的分类特征及分类方法相比,识别精度有明显提高,Kappa系数提高0.10,错分率降低16.1个百分点.     

A national approach to greenhouse gas abatement through blue carbon management

There is increasing interest in protecting, restoring and creating ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems (BCE; mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) to sequester atmospheric CO₂-C and thereby contribute to climate change mitigation. While a growing number of countries aspire to report greenhouse gas emission and carbon sequestration changes from these ecosystems under voluntary international reporting requirements, few countries have domestic policy frameworks that specifically support the quantification and financing of carbon emission abatement through BCE management.Australia, as home to approximately 5–11% of global blue carbon stocks, has a substantial interest in the development of blue carbon policy. Here we assess the potential inclusion of blue carbon within Australia's Emissions Reduction Fund, emphasizing issues and approaches that have global relevance. We used a participatory workshop of scientific experts and carbon industry stakeholders to identify blue carbon management actions that would meet the requirements of the Fund. In total, twelve actions were assessed for their greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and the ability to measure abatement reliably, using a combination of available data and qualitative and quantitative methods, including expert knowledge.We identify and discuss the five most relevant and promising activities, encompassing the protection, restoration and creation of mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses. On a per area basis, mean abatement intensity of organic carbon (C_org) was highest for the (re)introduction of tidal flow resulting in establishment of mangrove (13–15 Mg C_org ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and tidal marsh (6–8 Mg C_org ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), followed by land use planning for sea-level rise for the creation of new mangrove habitat (8 Mg C_org ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). The avoided disturbance of existing mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses has the twofold benefit of avoiding remineralisation of existing stocks, plus the future annual abatement associated with the net sequestration of atmospheric CO₂-C as C_org with the continued functioning of these BCE. Our approach offers a template that uses best available information to identify options for carbon abatement through management of coastal landscapes, and details current knowledge gaps and important technical aspects that need to be considered for implementation in carbon crediting schemes.     

基于MODIS数据的城市热岛动态监测及时空变化分析

以人口密集、经济快速发展的福建省沿海地区为研究区，在遥感和地理信息系统技术支持下，采用经优选的MODIS遥感数据反演的地表温度，提取城市热岛和植被覆盖信息，对研究区城市热岛进行动态监测和时空变化分析，并对地表温度与植被覆盖的互动关系进行定性与定量分析。结果表明：福建沿海城市热岛面积整体上呈逐年增长趋势，福州和莆田更为明显；城市热岛主要集中在人口密集、工商业发达的区域，同时沿海平原的热岛效应比内陆山区更为显著；地表温度与植被覆盖呈负相关，并且相关系数逐年增长。     

Secular Trends in Tidal Parameters along the Coast of Japan

The secular trends for local tidal datums, tide ranges, and tidal harmonic constituents at 13 tidal gauge stations located along the coast of Japan were analyzed in this study. The general trends for mean higher high water (MHHW), mean high water (MHW), diurnal tide range (DTR), mean tide range (MTR), and relative mean sea level (RMSL) were positive, and for mean lower low water (MLLW) and mean low water (MLW) the trends were negative. The variation patterns were largest at Kushiro and Ofunato stations, both located in the open waters of the North Pacific Ocean. The tidal datums and tide ranges remained fairly stable at the Hakodate station, and an opposite trend was observed at the Maisaka station. The analysis of tidal harmonic constituents revealed a less pronounced pattern. The most distinct trend was observed for the M₂ amplitude, which appears to be negative at a majority of the stations. The largest decrease in the M₂ amplitude was observed at Kushimoto and Mera stations, also located in the open waters of the North Pacific Ocean. The negative trend is attributed to decreasing water depths at these stations, owing to small-scale local processes.     

The potential of vegetation feedback to alleviate climate aridity over the United States associated with a 2×CO2 climate condition

This study examines the potential impact of vegetation feedback on changes in summer climate aridity over the contiguous United States (US) due to the doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration using a set of 100-year-long climate simulations made by a global climate model interactively coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. The Thornthwaite moisture index (I _m ), which quantifies climate aridity on the basis of atmospheric water supply (i.e., precipitation) and atmospheric water demand (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, PET), is used to measure climate aridity. Warmer atmosphere and drier surface resulting from increased CO₂ concentration increase climate aridity over most of the contiguous US. This phenomenon is due to larger increments in PET than in precipitation, regardless of the presence or absence of vegetation feedback. Compared to simulations without active dynamic vegetation feedback, the presence of vegetation feedback significantly alleviates the increase in aridity. This vegetation-feedback effect is most noticeable in the subhumid regions such as southern, midwestern and northwestern US, primarily by the increasing vegetation greenness. In these regions, the greening in response to warmer temperatures enhances moisture transfer from soil to atmosphere by evapotranspiration (ET). The increased ET and subsequent moistening over land areas result in weaker surface warming (1–2?K) and PET (3–10?mm?month^?1), and greater precipitation (4–10?mm?month^?1). Collectively, they result in moderate increases in I _m . Our results suggest that moistening by enhanced vegetation feedback may prevent aridification under climatic warming especially in areas vulnerable to climate change, with consequent implications for mitigation strategies.     

Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO₂ enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W _r ) and biome-level water limitation (L _TA), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L _TA is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L _TA, ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L _TA tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W _r and L _TA suggests that decreases in W _r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO₂. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L _TA would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative.     

An Analysis of Sensitivity of Terrestrial Ecosystems in China to ClimaticChange Using Spatial Simulation

A computer simulation model of regional vegetationdynamics was applied to the terrestrial ecosystems ofChina to study the responses of vegetation to elevatedCO₂ and global climatic change. The primaryproduction processes were coupled with vegetationstructure in the model. The model was parameterizedand partially validated in light of a large number of fieldobservations made throughout China on primary productivity,10 years of monthly meteorological data, 5 years of monthlynormalized differential vegetation index observed byNOAA-11 satellite, and digital vegetation and terrainmaps. Eight different climatic scenarios, set byperturbations from the present climate, 100% inatmospheric CO₂ concentration, 2 °C inmonthly mean temperature, and 20% in monthlyprecipitation, were applied to analyze the sensitivityof the Chinese terrestrial ecosystems to climaticchange. Simulation results were obtained for each ofthe climatic scenarios with the model running towardequilibrium solutions at a time step of 1 month.Preliminary validation indicated that the model wascapable of simulating the net primary productivity ofmost vegetation classes and the potential vegetationstructure in China under present climatic conditions.The simulations for the altered climatic scenariospredicted that grasslands, shrubs, and conifer forestsare more sensitive to environmental changes thanevergreen broadleaf forests in warm, wet southeastChina and desert vegetation in cold, arid northwestChina. For less than 150% of changes in vegetationstructure under altered climatic conditions, aboutthree quarters of the changes in net primaryproductivity of individual vegetation classes wereshown to be attributed to the changes in thecorresponding distribution area.     

多圈层陆面过程参数化研究中遥感信息应用的进展和方向

近年来遥感技术的发展为多圈层中陆面过程和边界层研究提供了有力的工具。文章分析了目前用于陆面过程参数化研究的重要遥感信息源。并评述遥感信息在陆面过程参数化研究中的基本应用和存在问题，最后，提出发展方向和展望。     

Mangrove conversion and aquaculture development in Vietnam: A remote sensing-based approach for evaluating the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands

Remote sensing data have been proposed as a potential tool for monitoring environmental treaties. However, to date, satellite images have been used primarily for visualization, but not for systematic monitoring of treaty compliance. In this paper, we present a methodology to operationalize the use of satellite imagery to assess the impact of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. The approach uses time series analysis of landscape pattern metrics to assess land cover conditions before and after designation of Ramsar status to monitor compliance with the Convention. We apply the methodology to two case studies in Vietnam and evaluate the success of Ramsar using four metrics: (1) total mangrove extent; (2) mangrove fragmentation; (3) mangrove density; and (4) aquaculture extent. Results indicate that the Ramsar Convention did not slow the development of aquaculture in the region, but total mangrove extent has remained relatively constant, primarily due to replanting efforts. Yet despite these restoration efforts, the mangroves have become fragmented and survival rates for replanting efforts are low. The methodology is cost effective and especially useful to evaluate Ramsar sites that rely mainly on self-reporting methods and where third parties are not actively involved in the monitoring process. Finally, the case study presented in this paper demonstrates that with the appropriate satellite record, in situ measurements and field observations, remote sensing is a promising technology that can help monitor compliance with international environmental agreements.     

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO₂ using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO₂, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO₂-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (~10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration (285–570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO₂ and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO₂-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO₂-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.