海上风能资源观测与评估研究进展

风能资源观测评估是风电开发建设的前提基础,海上风电投资成本巨大,更需准确评估风能资源以减少风电投资风险。从传统气象站观测到多平台遥感探测,从简单数理统计到耦合模式数值模拟,观测数据的丰富和技术方法的成熟,使得海上风能资源评估的可靠性越来越高。站位资料匮乏、遥感资料丰富是海上风场观测数据特点。运用多尺度耦合模式,同化多源遥感探测资料和站位观测资料,以多方式技术融合形式开展海上风能资源评估,是区域风能资源评估方法的主流发展方向。风电场风能资源评估应着重注意观测数据质量、数据插补订正、重现期风速推算及风能参数长年代修正等方式方法的选择,这些因素可直接影响未来风电场运行效益。     

高空风力发电系统安全风险评估体系

<正>我国风能储量大、分布面广,风力发电装机规模稳居世界第一。但受限于材料、工艺与建设成本,现有形式的风力发电机组离地高度通常低于200m。根据激光雷达对0到3000m高度的风速观测显示^[1],1500m的平均风速是地面平均风速的2.4倍,3000m的平均风速是地面平均风速的3.8倍,可达9.5m/s,并且风向稳定、间歇性小,具备持续开发的潜力和价值。     

1961—2017年南极冰盖近地面风时空变化研究

基于19个人工气象站1961—2017年风速风向实测数据对南极冰盖近地面风速时空变化和风向进行了分析。结果表明：近50年来,南极冰盖近地面各季节平均风速和年平均风速变化的空间模式基本一致。东南极0°~120° E沿海地区风速呈显著上升趋势;南极半岛气象站风速变化趋势各异,且变化速率相差甚大,但从区域平均结果来看,南极半岛年和季节平均风速均呈上升趋势。这与近几十来局地气温、气压变化及南半球环状模趋向于正位相发展有关。东南极受下降风和绕极东风影响,大部分地区盛行偏南风或偏东风,且频率较高风向稳定;而受天气活动影响,南极半岛风向复杂,主风向频率低,风向多变。     

浅析低风速风电场的开发——以罗圈岩风电场为例

正2016年发布的《风电发展"十三五"规划》提出,应加快开发中东部和南方地区陆上风资源,提升中东部和南方地区风电开发利用水平。因中东部和南方地区以低风速为主,故推动低风速风电技术进步,因地制宜推进低风速风电场开发建设尤为必要~([1])。本文以四川省广元市罗圈岩风电场为例,介绍了低风速风电场的风能资源特点,即年平均风速较低且产生的年利用小时数较低;分析了低风速风电场的开发难点,如风速较低、风电补贴下降、风速和风向波动大、地理条件复杂     

蒸散发模拟的Valiantzas方法在中国的应用

根据一种简化的Penman模型,建立了一个无需风速的参考作物蒸散发模型(Penman-Valiantzas模型),在此基础上又结合Hargreaves辐射方程建立了无需风速和日照时数的Penman-Valiantzas-Hargreaves模型.利用世界粮食组织的CLIMWAT数据库中156个气象站点多年月平均资料对此...     

藏北高原多年冻土区地表反照率时空变化特征

利用自动气象站数据和MODIS（MOD02）数据,对位于藏北高原多年冻土区的阿雅克气象站、卓乃湖气象站、唐古拉气象站和西大滩气象站四个观测站点的单点地表反照率的季节变化、日变化和站点所属区域（88°~95°E,32°~38°N）的区域地表反照率夏、冬季节的空间分布进行了分析研究,得出：2013年,四个研究站点地表反照率均是夏季最小,冬季最大,春季大于秋季,其他季节较夏季地表反照率峰值较多;当太阳高度角大于40°时各站点地表反照率日变化基本不变,地表冻融过程中地表反照率完全冻结阶段 ＞ 日冻融循环阶段 ＞ 完全融化阶段,且地表日冻融循环阶段地表反照率日变化的中间时刻有明显下降。研究区域夏、冬季地表反照率大部分在0.1~0.3范围内;冬季地表反照率大于0.3的区域明显多于夏季,夏季区域地表反照率自阿雅克到唐古拉呈带状递减。     

水资源学

人类自进入20世纪以后,随着人口的激增和经济的发展,用水量急剧增加。据统计自1900年至1975年,全球人口从16.3亿增至40亿左右,增长2.45倍;用水量从4000亿立方米增至29660亿立方米,增长7.4倍。其中生活用水从200亿立方米增至1470亿立方米,增长7.4倍;工业用水从300亿立方米增至6330亿立方米,增长21倍;农业用水从3500亿立方米增至20740亿立方米,增长5.9倍。在用水量增长的同时,城市生活污水和工业污水的排放量相应增加,使天然水域遭到严重污染,不但人类健康和生存条件受到威协,水量矛盾也因之更加激化。这样,水资源问题就成为一个世界性的重大研究课题,日益引起人们的重视,而水资源学这门新型学科就在此种需要下开始形成。     

沙漠公路风蚀破坏规律的数值模拟研究

通过Fluent软件对沙漠公路的风蚀破坏规律进行数值模拟研究。分析公路不同横断面时风沙流扰动、增速、减速、恢复的过程,确定路基(堑)高度、边坡坡率和路面宽度等公路断面设计参数对风沙流扰动的影响,提出沙漠公路路基(堑)风蚀破坏规律。结果表明：路面宽度的改变对路基沿程风速变化影响较小,各特征点处风速变化小于5%。路基(堑)高度和边坡坡率对风沙流扰动的影响较大。随路基(堑)高度增加,风沙流流场的扰动被增强,路基(堑)风蚀破坏越显著,当边坡坡率为1:1时,路基模型高度250 mm时的迎风路肩风速为模型高度60 mm时的 1.15倍,其背风坡脚风速降低45%;路堑模型高度250 mm时的背风堑顶风速为模型高度60 mm时的1.05倍,迎风堑脚处风速降低高达80%。建议沙漠公路宜采用中低路基(堑),不宜高填深挖。当路基(堑)高度一定,边坡坡率为1:1.75或1:2时,路基(堑)沿程风速变化平缓,沙漠路肩不易被吹蚀破坏;路堑中堑脚位置处不易出现堆积。其结论与室内风蚀风洞试验结果有很好的一致性     

新疆冬季雪水资源估算及分布特征

应用2004—2010年EOS/MODIS遥感积雪监测资料,结合新疆89个气象站雪深、雪密度50年的观测记录,估算新疆冬季雪水当量,并对时空特征进行研究。结果表明:① 2004—2010年新疆年雪水当量最大峰值为368.83亿m3(2009—2010年)、最小峰值为93.91亿m3(2006—2007年),最大峰值是最小峰值的4倍左右,且6年中峰值出现的最早和最晚时间相差5旬。② 新疆雪水资源分布存在4个区域:南疆、东疆、伊犁和博州、北疆东北部,不同区域雪水当量峰值出现时间不同。新疆雪水当量峰值应该是4个区域峰值之和。③ 新疆雪水当量50年来呈现年际间的大幅波动,发展趋势沿着斜率为0.083 2的直线上升,表明雪水资源在逐年增多;波动幅度逐步加大,表明雪水资源偏少的年份有时也会发生。     

井下高压水射流切割煤层增透效果数值模拟

针对井下高压水射流切割煤层增透技术,利用FLAC3D数值模拟软件,建立三维有限元模型,对不同煤体结构（软煤、硬煤）、切割深度和切割环数等因素的卸压增透效果进行数值模拟分析。模拟结果表明:在水力切割相同半径下,软煤的卸压范围约为硬煤的1.8倍,变形量约为硬煤的2.6倍;水力切割半径由0.5 m增至1 m时,煤体中应力降低为90%的区域和煤体变形量分别提高到1.56倍和1.66倍;相邻切割缝槽之间出现了交互影响,钻孔的卸压范围和煤体变形量显著增大,水力切割区域煤体呈现整体卸压状态。将数值模拟的卸压范围与理论公式计算结果进行了对比,二者之间的误差为0.46%~9.84%,表明采用数值模拟技术研究水力切割增透效果是可靠的。      

The suitability of routine weather data for estimating local estuarine heat energy fluxes

Meteorological data and water temperatures from a 98-day period during the summer of 1980 are used to examine the suitability of routine weather observations for quantifying the heat energy budget of a shallow lagoon on the Atlantic coast of Florida. Hourly cloud-cover observations are used to calculate incoming solar radiation, and results are compared with pyranometer readings. The standard error of the estimate is 26% of the mean daily accumulation for simulations of one day, but this decreases to only 0.3% of the total accumulation for simulations of 21 days. Wind speeds recorded at a weather station 4 km from the study site must be modified by a site-specific wind ratio before they can be used to calculate latent and sensible heat fluxes. Even with site-specific corrections to routine weather data, the standard deviation of simulated temperatures is 2 to 3 times that of observed temperatures. Cloud cover and wind speed are the two variables most difficult to incorporate into the simulations.     

An evaluation of the use of renewable energy to pump water in Sacala las Lomas,Guatemala

An evaluation has been conducted to establish if using renewable energy is technically and economically feasible to pump water in Sacala las Lomas, Guatemala. A deep groundwater well has been proposed and a multi-stage pump system is being considered to distribute groundwater to users’ homes. A weather station was erected in Sacala to collect site-specific data. Wind velocity, wind direction, solar insolation, temperature, precipitation, and barometric pressure data were collected over a 1-year study period. The analysis of the data indicated that the potential power generated by a photovoltaic array or wind turbine would be insufficient to economically pump water to the village under current conditions. Although there may be reasons other than economics that make the potential renewable energy applications attractive, the space and maintenance required to install and operate a sufficient off-grid system outweigh the benefits. A grid-intertie system would allow any number of solar panels to be used in the system while still providing the electricity demand using grid-power.     

Non-Conventional Energy Sources: A Geo-Spatial Study of Site,Situation, Production and Economy of Wind Farms in Satara District

Wind energy is a popular from the non-conventional energy sources in the World. In India states like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Orissa, and Maharashtra are as regarded as superior areas with respect to this type energy. The installed capacity of wind in India till December 2010 was 13,056.37 MW, principally distributed throughout the Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, etc. In Maharashtra, there are 38 wind farms and the 3655 wind machines are installed with the 3431.86MW capacity of power generation up to September 2013. In Satara district, 17 wind sites and also other some sites are discovered. At present there are 1636 wind turbines are installed with its capacity of power generation is 1122.61MW and the production of wind energy of 2183745.15KWh average per annum in Satara district.The main objectives of the present paper are to assess the scope of non-conventional energy resources especially the power generation from wind and to analyze the trend and distribution of the wind mills and wind farms in Satara district. It is find out the amount of recovered from the power generation comes around 12 years without subsidy and around 8 years with subsidy. The total life span of wind turbines is 25 years. It is very much clean and does not cause any problem to the environment as well as to the survival on the surface of the earth. Therefore, it is inferred that the generation of power from wind is not only cheaper and permanent energy source but also a non-polluting, freely available source. It is helpful for the development of economically and socially in a region especially in rural development. With these consequences the income level will increase and it will further help in minimising the social disparities.     

Experimental study on gyroscopic effect of rotating rotor and wind heading angle on floating wind turbine responses

Limited fossil resources, daily increasing rate of demand for energy and the environmental pollution fact have made people revert to renewable sources of energy as a solution. One type of renewable energy is offshore wind energy which has high potential without any sound and visual noises. Recently, a lot of researchers have carried out on the issue of offshore wind turbine. Because of incapability of most of software programs to simulate gyroscopic effect of rotating rotors, in this articles a significant effort has been made to fabricate and test an offshore wind turbine under different rotor rotation velocities and different heading angle of wind so as to obtain the effects of these parameters on structure responses. Study on the response of a wind turbine under environmental loads has had a notable importance due to the fact that structure behavior can strongly affect procedure of modeling and optimizing wind turbine structures. On the other hand, frequency-domain structural response of a wind turbine can also make engineers be informed about of appropriate mooring system for a special environmental condition. Consequently, it has been observed that increasing the rotor rotation velocity leads the peak of spectrums shift to a higher frequency due to the gyroscopic effect appeared as a damping term, and changing heading angle of wind may lead to a change in heave and pitch amplitudes in the time domain response, and heave, sway and surge motion in frequency response.     

Application of radar wind profiler data in analyzing the process of torrential rains in Urumqi Xinjiang,China

To deeply understand the micro-/mesoscale dynamic characteristics of the torrential rain process in Urumqi and improve the levels of torrential rain monitoring, forecasting and early warning, this paper analyzed the wind profile features and related scientific problems of three typical torrential rain events seen in 2013–2015 in this region. The research results suggested that: (1) Radar wind profiler can record in detail the movement condition of the atmosphere during the process of torrential rains. Carrying out detailed analyses on the wind profile data is conductive to the improvement in monitoring, forecasting and warning to torrential rain event at a single observation station. (2) When Urumqi experiences heavy rain weather, noticeable wind shear is usually observed above the observation station. In the upper air, it is southwest wind, while in the lower air it is northwest wind, which is the typical wind profile pattern for heavy rain events in the Urumqi region. (3) Obvious northwest low-level jet stream is found to go together with precipitation, and the jet is positively correlated with precipitation intensity. The velocity of low-level jet stream greatly impacts the amount and intensity of precipitation. (4) The rainstorm weather phenomena are clearly presented by the time–height chart of radar reflectivity factors. The high reflectivity values correspond positively to the height range of cloud–rain particles as well as the duration and intensity of precipitation, so it can be used as a reference index of precipitation monitoring and early warning. In a word, this research deepens on the recognition to the micro-/mesoscale weather systems during the process of heavy rains in Urumqi. Moreover, it would contribute to the application improvement of wind profiler data in analyzing the heavy rainfalls in this region.     

Comparative Studies on the Harm Characteristic of Hot-dry wind and High Temperature Heat Waves

This paper summarized six aspects such as the harm characteristics, type and index, climatic characteristics, causes, responding to globe changes, protecting technology and answering tactics of hot-dry wind and high temperature heat wave. There is distinction and relationship between hot dry wind and high temperature heat wave. This includes that both of hot-dry wind and high temperature heat wave belong to serious shorter time scale weather disasters. Lower humidity and higher temperature are their main characteristics. The two causes of abnormal circulation characteristics and impacts of the disasters from climate change are basically the same. The disasters may occur in the same area during the same period. Arid season is helphul for their development and aggravation damage. There are differences on harm characteristics, type and index, climatic characteristics, protecting technology and answering tactics in this two weather disasters in that the high temperature heat wave is the comprehensiveness meteorological disasters and dry-hot wind is the agrometeorological disasters.     

On the influence of changes in the drag relation on surface wind speeds and storm surge forecasts

In this study it is investigated how uncertainties in the magnitude of the drag coefficient translate into uncertainties in storm surge forecasts in the case of severe weather. A storm surge model is used with wind stress data from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, to simulate several recent storms over the North Sea. For a fixed wind speed, the wind stress is linear in the drag coefficient. However, in the NWP model the wind speed is not fixed and increasing the drag in the NWP model results into reduced wind speeds. The results from simulations show that for given increase in the drag coefficient, the weakening of the 10-m wind field reduces the increase in the stress considerably. When the Charnock parameter is increased in the NWP model, the resulting relative changes in the wind stress are almost independent of the wind speed. This is related to the fact that the depth of the surface boundary layer depends on the wind speed. The ratio between relative changes in the wind stress and relative changes in the drag coefficient depends on the wind speed. For 10-m wind speeds larger than 20?m?s^?1 the ratio is 0.52; for lower wind speed criteria the ratio is somewhat larger (??0.60). Approximately 36% of the relative change in the drag coefficient translates into a relative change in the surge in stations at the Dutch coast. The relative increase in the storm surge is approximately 68% of the relative increase in the stress.     

基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量LS-SVM预测模型

利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法,建立了基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量(ET₀)的预测模型.对广利灌区1997~2006年逐日气象信息中的天气类型和风速等级进行量化后,以不同天气预报信息作为输入量,建立10种验证方案,对2007年的逐日ET₀进行预测.经验证,方案1~方案7精度均令人满意,其中方案1精度最高.方案1的输入量为气温、天气类型、风速等级3项的预测值,该方案的模型预测值与计算值的统计参数分别为:均方根偏差E_RMS为0.5182 mm,相对偏差E_R为0.1878,决定系数R2为0.864 8,认同系数I_A为0.966 9,回归系数R_C为0.9867;方案7精度亦较好,且以上指标统计参数依次为0.6576 mm、0.2332、0.986 6、0.774 7及0.986 6,该方案输入量只有气温项,实用性很强.     

气候资源的合理开发利用

气候资源是人类生产和生活不可缺少的自然资源,它的开发利用对于经济社会的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。综合评述了我国主要气候资源的分布及利用现状,指出了其中存在的主要问题,并探讨了气候资源合理开发 利用的发展目标：开展全国和重点区域气候资源普查、评估气候资源的承载能力,在此基础上根据社会发展和需求进行气候资源综合区划工作;建立我国气候资源监测评估体系,研究气候资源未来演化趋势及其对环境、生态和社会经济系统的影响;推广气候资源的开发利用技术,特别是对太阳能和风能等气候能源的利用。     

全球可再生能源消费现状分析

随着全球经济的发展,能源消费不断增长。在全球的能源消费中,可再生能源占比不断提高,2017年占比为10.4%,成为能源消费的重要组成部分。全球可再生能源的利用中,水电处于主导地位,占6成以上;其次为风能,占比超过1成;太阳能和地热发展较晚,占比均不足1成。各国可再生能源利用水平不均,挪威、加拿大和巴西等国家的可再生资源已成为本国能源消费的主要来源之一。中国同样重视可再生能源的开发利用,2017年中国能源消费中可再生能源占比为11.8%,已超过天然气成为第三大能源消费来源。总之,随着可再生能源开发利用水平的不断提高,可再生能源在全球能源消费中的比重将进一步增加,将成为化石能源的重要替代资源。