The long-term evolution and initial size of comets 46P/Wirtanen and 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko

We present a new method to study the long-term evolution of cometary nuclei in order to estimate their original size, and we consider the case of comets 46P/Wirtanen (hereafter 46P) and 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P). We calculate the past evolution of the orbital elements of both comets over 100 000 yr using a Bulirsch–Stoer integrator and over 450 000 yr using a Radau integrator, and we incorporate a realistic model of the erosion of their nucleus. Their long-term orbital evolution is prominently chaotic, resulting from several close encounters with planets, and this result is independent of the choice of the integrator and of the presence or not of non-gravitational forces. The dynamical lifetime of comet 46P is estimated at ∼133 000 yr and that of comet 67P at ∼105 000 yr. Our erosion model assumes a spherical nucleus composed of a macroscopic mixture of two thermally decoupled components, dust and pure water ice. Erosion strongly depends upon the active fraction and the density of the nucleus. It mainly takes place at heliocentric distances <4 au and lasts for only ∼7 per cent of the lifetime. Assuming a density of 300 kg m⁻³ and an average active fraction over time of 10 per cent, we find an initial radius of ∼1.3 km for 46P and ∼2.8 km for 67P. Upper limit are obtained assuming a density of 100 kg m⁻³ and an active fraction of 100 per cent, and amounts to 21 km for 46P and 25 km for 67P. Erosion acts as a rejuvenating process of the surface so that exposed materials on the surface may only contain very little quantities of primordial materials. However, materials located just under it (a few centimetres to metres) may still be much less evolved. We will apply this method to several other comets in the future.     

The 'silent world' of Comet 15P/Finlay

Comet 15P/Finlay is unusual in that, contrary to ab initio expectations, it demonstrates no apparent linkage to any known meteor shower. Using data contained within the Electronic Atlas of Dynamical Evolutions of Short-Period Comets, we evaluate theoretical shower radiants for Comet 15P/Finlay, but find no evidence to link it to any meteoric anomalies in recorded antiquity. This result, however, must be tempered by the fact that any Comet 15P/Finlay-derived meteoroids will have a low, 16 km s⁻¹, encounter velocity with Earth's atmosphere. Typically, therefore, one would expect mostly faint meteors to be produced during an encounter with a Comet 15P/Finlay-derived meteoroid stream. We have conducted a D -criterion survey of meteoroid orbits derived from three southern hemisphere meteor radar surveys conducted during the 1960s, and again we find no evidence for any Comet 15P/Finlay-related activity. Numerical calculations following the orbital evolution of hypothetical meteoroids ejected from the comet, at each perihelion epoch since 1886, indicate that Jovian perturbations effectively 'drive' the meteoroids to orbits with nodal points beyond the Earth's orbit. The numerical calculations indicate that, even if Comet 15P/Finlay had been a copious emitter of meteoroids during the past 100 years, virtually none of them would have evolved into orbits capable of being sampled by the Earth. There are good observational data, however, to suggest that Comet 15P/Finlay is becoming a transitional comet–asteroid object, and that it has probably not been an efficient producer of meteoroids during the past several hundreds of years.     

Orbit of periodic comet 153P/Ikeya–Zhang

The orbit of Comet C/2002C1 (Ikeya–Zhang) has a similarity to that of Comet C/1661C1 (Hevelius), and the numerical integration of the motion of C/2002C1 backward shows a possible linkage of those two comets. Thus, 153P/Ikeya–Zhang was designated a periodic comet. Historical records of comets in 877 and 1273 are also identified with Comet 153P/Ikeya–Zhang. The integrated orbital elements during 77 and 2362, and historical records of the comet are also presented and discussed.     

The origin of the June Bootid outburst in 1998 and determination of cometary ejection velocities

Numerical integrations are used to show that the main contribution to the outburst observed in the June Bootid meteor shower in 1998 was a subset of meteoroids released from the parent comet, 7P/Pons–Winnecke, at its 1825 return. A substantial part of the June Bootid stream is in 2:1 resonance with Jupiter. This inhibits chaotic motion, allowing structures in the stream to remain compact enough over centuries that meteor outbursts can still be produced. Circumstances of ejection in 1825 are calculated that exactly result in orbits capable of producing meteors at the observed time in 1998. Required ejection velocities are  10–20 m s^-1  .     

Collisions of comets and meteoroids: The post Stardust‐NExT discussion

The paper considers results of collisions between comets and meteoroids. We re‐discuss the five different approaches to estimate the sizes of holes created during such collisions. The results of the Deep Impact and the Stardust‐NExT missions to comet 9P/Temple 1 are applied to the estimation of these methods. We use the observed amount of ejected mass, the jump of brightness of the comet 9P/Tempel 1 as well as the diameter of the excavated crater. In the paper the simple way of estimation of impact consequences by use of the conception of the fragmentation energy of comet is also discussed. The numerical calculations were carried out for reasonable assumed values of a large range of cometary characteristics. The main conclusion of this paper confirms a general presumption that the main factor which determines the size of the impact crater on the comet 9P/Tempel 1 is the kinetic energy of impactor and strength or fragmentation energy of cometary material. In the considered case the gravitation of a comet has a minor meaning (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Features of a comet nucleus: The case of 103P/Hartley 2

In the paper two chosen features of the comet 103P/Hartley 2 are studied. The first one are ‘cometary geysers’ which have been recorded by the camera on Deep Impact spacecraft. The numerical calculations related with this phenomenon have been carried out for large number of values of probable cometary characteristics. Our calculations confirm the assumption what also has been observed by NASA's scientists that the jets of carbon dioxide from the geysers are able to lift large chunks of water ice from the comet. The second discussed feature of the comet 103P/Hartley 2 is the lack of impact holes on the surface of its nucleus. The expected rate of impact holes on the surface of the nucleus of 103P/Hartley 2 is discussed. These holes could be the product of impacts between this comet and other small bodies orbiting in the main asteroid belt. The probability of such impacts, the total number of expected perceptible holes and changes in the luminosity of the comet caused by collisions are examined. We conclude that indeed the number of visible holes on its surface should be negligible (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Leonid meteor storms of 1833 and 1966

The greatest Leonid meteor storms since the late eighteenth century are generally regarded as being those of 1833 and 1966. They were evidently due to dense meteoroid concentrations within the Leonid stream. At those times, the orbit of Comet 55P/Tempel–Tuttle was significantly nearer that of the Earth than at most perihelion returns, but still some tens of Earth radii away. Significantly reducing this miss distance can be critical for producing a storm. Evaluation of differential gravitational perturbations, comparing meteoroids with the comet, shows that, in 1833 and 1966 respectively, the Earth passed through meteoroid trails generated at the 1800 and 1899 returns.     

Follow‐up observations of Comet 17P/Holmes after its extreme outburst in brightness end of October 2007

We present follow‐up observations of comet 17/P Holmes after its extreme outburst in brightness, which occurred end of October 2007. We obtained 58 V‐band images of the comet between October 2007 and February 2008, using the Cassegrain‐Teleskop‐Kamera (CTK) at the University Observatory Jena. We present precise astrometry of the comet, which yields its most recent Keplerian orbital elements. Furthermore, we show that the comet's coma expands quite linearly with a velocity of about 1650 km/s between October and December 2007. The photometric monitoring of comet 17/P Holmes shows that its photometric activity level decreased by about 5.9 mag within 105 days after its outburst (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

On the unusual activity of the Perseid meteor shower (1989–96) and the dust trail of comet 109P/Swift–Tuttle

We present the first measurements of the radiant and orbit of meteoroids that are part of the unusual Perseid activity called the 'Perseid Filament'. This filament was encountered by Earth in the years before and after the return of the comet to perihelion in December of 1992. Between 1989 and 1996, there were brief meteor outbursts of near-constant duration with a symmetric activity profile. In 1993, however, rates increased more gradually to the peak. That gradual increase is identified here as a separate dust component, which we call the 'Nodal Blanket'. We find that the Nodal Blanket has a very small radiant dispersion. On the other hand, the Perseid Filament has a radiant that is significantly dispersed and systematically displaced by 0.3°. This dispersion implies that unusually high ejection velocities or planetary perturbations must have had time to disperse the stream. In both cases, one would expect a rapid dispersion of matter along the comet orbit. In order to explain the concentration of dust near the comet position, we propose a novel scenario involving long-term accumulation in combination with protection of the region near the comet against close encounters with Jupiter due to librations of the comet orbit around the 1:11 mean-motion resonance.     

Orbit of Comet C/1857 D1 (d'Arrest)

Comet C/ 1857 D1 (d'Arrest) is one of a large number of comets with parabolic orbits. Given that there are sufficient observations of the comet, 299 in right ascension and 279 in declination, it proves possible to calculate a better orbit. The calculations are based on a 12th order predictor‐corrector method. The comet's orbit is highly elliptical, e = 0.99982 and, from calculated mean errors, statistically different from a parabola. The comet will not return for at least 44000 years and thus represents no immediate NEO threat (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Search for New Parent Bodies of Meteoroid Streams Among Comets. I. Showers of Comets 126P/1996 P1 and 161P/2004 V2 with Radiants on Southern Sky

We deal with theoretical meteoroid streams the parent bodies of which are two Halley-type comets in orbits situated at a relatively large distance from the orbit of Earth: 126P/1996 P1 and 161P/2004 V2. For two perihelion passages of each comet in the far past, we model the theoretical stream and follow its dynamical evolution until the present. We predict the characteristics of potential meteor showers according to the dynamical properties of theoretical particles currently approaching the orbit of the Earth. Our dynamical study reveals that the comet 161P/2004 V2 could have an associated Earth-observable meteor shower, although no significant number of theoretical particles are identified with real, photographic, video, or radar meteors. However, the mean radiant of the shower is predicted on the southern sky (its declination is about −23°) where a relatively low number of real meteors has been detected and, therefore, recorded in the databases used. The shower of 161P has a compact radiant area and a relatively large geocentric velocity of ∼53 km s⁻¹. A significant fraction of particles assumed to be released from comet 126P also cross the Earth’s orbit and, eventually, could be observed as meteors. However, their radiant area is largely dispersed (declination of radiants spans from about +60° to the south pole) and, therefore, mixed with the sporadic meteor background. An identification with real meteors is practically impossible.     

The source of energy of the comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 outburst activity: the test of the summary

The comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 is an exceptional comet as far as cometary outbursts are concerned. Despite its large distance from the Sun (about 6 au), it shows quasi-regular outburst activity, usually once or twice a year. Up to now there has not been a generally accepted model that explains this phenomenon. In the first part of this paper, the most well-known hypotheses that attempt to explain the outburst activity of this comet are presented and critically analysed. The main aim of this paper is to present a model for the outburst activity of this comet. The model is based on the global analysis of the internal structure and physical and chemical processes that take place in the cometary nucleus. Numerical calculations were carried out for reasonable assumed values of a large range of cometary characteristics. The obtained results are consistent with observational data.     

P/2008 T1 (Boattini): Another comet under transition from Saturn to Jupiter

The newly discovered periodic comet P/2008 T1 (Boattini) is found to have experienced a recent capture into its present orbit, following a close approach to Saturn in 1995 to within 0.17 AU. This orbital change transferred the comet into an orbit tangent to that of Jupiter, which lead to an even closer passage within 0.02 AU with that planet in 2003 decoupling it from the influence of Saturn (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The parent of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream

The Quadrantid meteor shower is one of the major showers that produces reliable displays every January. However, it is unique amongst the major showers in still not having its parent uniquely identified. One of the reasons for this may be because the stream, and presumably the parent, lies in a region of the Solar system where near-resonant motion with Jupiter, coupled with potential close encounters, is possible. Such a combination can lead to a rapid dynamical evolution of an orbit. In particular, it may be possible that the orbit of the parent both satisfies the condition for a close encounter and is in resonant motion, while most of the meteoroids cannot satisfy both conditions. This results in the parent evolving away from the bulk of the stream.
To date, two suggestions have been made regarding possible parents for the Quadrantid stream, these being Comet 1491 I and Comet 96P/Machholz. The argument in favour of the first named being the parent is because of the general similarity between the orbits around 1491. The argument for comet 96P/Machholz being the parent is based on the similarity in orbital evolution coupled with a similarity in orbits phase-shifted by 2000 yr. In this paper we suggest that on both counts asteroid 5496 (1973 NA) is more similar to the Quadrantids, and that even if 5496 is not the actual parent in the strict sense that meteoroids are currently being ejected, it is either likely to be a fragment of the parent or the dormant remains of the parent.     

Short-period Jupiter family comets after Stardust

The NASA Stardust mission has provided for laboratory study an extensive data set of cometary dust of known provenance (from comet 81P/Wild 2) yielding detailed insights into the composition of the comet. Combined with the results of data from other missions to short-period Jupiter family comets (JFC), this has greatly deepened the understanding of such objects. If depressions on the surface of comet 81P/Wild 2 are all taken as evidence of impact cratering, their number suggests a long occupancy in the outer region of the Solar System. The dust from comet 81P/Wild 2 has been shown to be heavily deficient in pre-Solar grains and rich in materials formed at high temperatures in the inner Solar System. Although it is too early to know if this is typical of JFC, it does argue for rapid and thorough mixing of materials in the disk on timescales related to comet formation, and may also suggest outward migration of small icy bodies after their formation. Thus, instead of providing mainly new knowledge of the pre-Solar materials expected to be rich in comets, Stardust and comet 81P/Wild 2 have instead focussed attention on large-scale transport processes during the critical period when cometary parent bodies were forming in the early Solar System.     

The outbursts of the comet 29P/Schwassmann‐Wachmann 1: A new approach to the old problem

As far as outbursts activity is concerned, the 29P/Schwassmann‐Wachmann 1 is the exceptional comet. This Centaur object shows quasi‐regular flares with periodicities of 50 days (Trigo‐Rodriguez et al. 2010). In the introductory part of the presented paper the most well‐known hypotheses which try to explain this cometary behaviour are reviewed. The second, actual part of this paper presents the new model for the outburst activity of this comet. The model is based on the idea of Ipatov (2012), according to which there are large cavities below a considerable fraction of the comet's surface containing material under high gas pressure. In favourite conditions the surface layers over the cavities are thrown away and the interior of these cavities is exposed. Consequently, an outburst of the comet's brightness may be observed. The main characteristics of an outburst of this comet, the brightness jump, is calculated. Numerical simulations were carried out for wide range of possible cometary parameters. The obtained results are in good agreement with the observations. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Meteor observations in Japan: new implications for a Taurid meteoroid swarm

Observational evidence is sought that the long-term (10⁴ yr) action of a mean motion resonance with Jupiter can produce structure in a meteoroid stream, concentrating meteoroids in a dense swarm. More specifically, predictions tabulated by Asher & Clube of enhanced meteor and fireball activity from a Taurid Complex swarm in the 7:2 resonance are compared with observational data collected in Japan over several decades. The swarm model was proposed for reasons independent of the observations analysed here, and these newly considered data are shown to be consistent with it. This allows increased confidence in the Taurid swarm theory, and more generally could mean that resonant trapping is a dynamical mechanism affecting a significant amount of meteoroidal material in the inner Solar system.     

Large cometary grains – their destruction and changes in the luminosity of comets

The catastrophic thermodynamic destruction of large cometary heterogeneous grains lying on the surface of a comet nucleus is examined. The core–mantle grain-structure model is assumed. Grain fragmentation as an explanation of sudden changes in cometary brightness is proposed. The approach presented to the problem of cometary outbursts is a development of a previous author's paper. The proposed mechanism is based on the idea of thermodynamical destruction of heterogeneous cometary grains. Numerical simulations have been carried out for a wide range of values of physical characteristics of cometary material. The results obtained are consistent with observational data. The main conclusion of this paper is that thermodynamical fragmentation of large grains can explain variations in brightness and also outbursts of comets.     

Cometary outbursts – the post-Deep Impact outlook on collisions as possible causes

The possibility of impacts between comets belonging to the Jupiter Family and other small bodies orbiting in the main asteroid belt, and the consequences in relation to cometary activity are discussed. The probability of such events and the jumps in cometary brightness caused by impacts are examined. The results are compared with the results of the Deep Impact mission to Comet 9P/Tempel 1. The main conclusion of this paper is in agreement with previous findings, namely that an impact mechanism cannot be the main cause of the outburst activity of comets.     

Cometary outbursts – search of probable mechanisms – case of 29P/Schwassmann‐Wachmann 1

Cometary outbursts, sudden increases in luminosity have not been clearly explained so far and their source is still a mystery. Various possible mechanisms as a source of cometary outbursts at large distances from the Sun have been considered. It has been stated that plausible mechanisms are the polymerization of HCN and the amorphous water ice transformation combined with electrostatic destruction of cometary grains in the head of the comet. The calculations have been carried out for a large range of cometary parameters and it has been shown that the proposed scenario of the outburst gives a jump in the comet brightness which is consistent with the real jump observed during the 29P/Schwassmann‐Wachmann 1 outbursts.