中国城市房价对生育率的影响——基于长三角地区41个城市的计量分析

房价与人口的关系是人文经济地理学研究的热点领域,本文选取长江三角洲地区作为研究区域,利用区域内41个城市11年（2008—2018年）的数据,分别采用差分GMM模型及LSDVC法,从整体和分组的层面分析城市房价与生育率的关系。整体模拟结果表明,城市房价上涨的速度对于生育率有着显著的负向作用：房价上涨得越快,生育率下降得越快。同时,以房价收入比衡量的居民购房能力对生育率也有着显著的影响,居民购房能力下降得越快,生育率也下降得越快。分组研究的结果表明,不同房价水平的城市,生育率受购房能力影响程度不同,中等房价水平及较低房价水平的城市,其生育率更容易受到购房能力波动的影响。基于以上研究结果,提出严控房价涨幅速度、适当提高购房补贴、提高居民收入等政策建议,以期提高区域内居民整体生育意愿,促进人口增长。     

Has the oil boom generated new problems of housing affordability in resource-driven agglomerations in Canada? A case study of St. John’s,Saskatoon, Calgary,Edmonton, and Fort McMurray, 1991–2011

Recent studies focused on Canadian metropolitan areas suggest that growing income inequality underlies problems of housing affordability for low- and moderate-income earners. This article investigates how unprecedented commodity-led economic growth between 1991 and 2011 has impacted housing affordability in five resource-driven agglomerations in Canada. Housing affordability is analyzed across income quintiles, looking at income, housing costs, tenure, housing quality, and housing debt. Using Statistics Canada Census microdata, we find that low- to mid-income earners faced the fastest relative increase in housing costs between 1991 and 2011, combined with small income gains over that period. Homeowners in the lowest income quintiles seem particularly vulnerable when carrying a mortgage, with economic volatility engendering greater risks of housing market contractions or job loss over time. Whereas previous literature has emphasized housing vulnerability in large metropolitan areas, the results highlight new patterns of risk-laden housing-related vulnerability in resource-driven regions in Canada.     

Housing differentiation and housing poverty in Chinese low-income urban neighborhoods under the confluence of State-market forces

ABSTRACT

Based on a large-scale household survey conducted in six large Chinese cities, this study is among the first attempts to juxtapose factors related to institution, market, and demography to examine the complex patterns and mechanisms of housing differentiation and housing poverty in low-income neighborhoods, which are conventionally conceived as homogenous substandard settlements. Results of Theil indices and multivariate regression models convey several interesting findings. First, the forces of the market and the State have projected different impacts on various aspects of housing status. Institutional factors had significant impacts on some costly and durable housing indicators such as housing tenure and housing area, while market forces have swiftly transformed the most malleable aspects of housing conditions, such as housing facilities, and will eventually replace some institutional legacies. Second, within-group housing differentiation is more palpable than between-group housing differentiation, suggesting that low-income neighborhoods in large Chinese cities are fluid and heterogeneous. Third, different institutional elements have different impacts on housing poverty. The well-functioning market remuneration system helps reduce the risk of housing poverty, yet working poor remains a severe problem. These findings can inform policies promoting social mix and housing affordability.     

Gentrification and the suburbanization of poverty: changing urban geographies through boom and bust periods

Many postindustrial cities across Europe and other contexts are marked by growing social–spatial inequalities, housing liberalization, and gentrification, which limit the housing options of low-income households. We investigated changes in the residential moves of different low-income households (working poor, low-to-middle income, and unemployed) in the Amsterdam and Rotterdam urban regions for the time period 2004–2013. We found an overarching trend for the suburbanization of poverty toward the urban peripheries and surrounding regions. While this trend appears to be relatively crisis resistant in the tight Amsterdam housing context, it is more cyclical in Rotterdam and has slowed following the global financial crisis. Low-to-middle income and unemployed households are increasingly moving to the urban regions surrounding cities, particularly to higher density satellite towns. Nevertheless, a growing number of working poor households remain highly urbanized, employing various coping strategies to acquire housing. This paper reveals how the suburbanization of poverty is both a direct process of poor households moving from city to suburb, and a broader indirect process caused by exclusionary mechanisms such as the decreasing accessibility and affordability of inner-urban neighborhoods, which reflect broader changes in the geography and socioeconomic patterning of urban regions.     

中国城市住房支付能力空间差异与分类调控策略

住房支付能力事关广大百姓生活质量与福祉,已成为世界各国政府共同关心的民生话题。2020年度住建部城市体检工作对中国城市住房支付能力给予了高度重视,并将其纳入到城市体检评价指标体系。基于全国337个地级以上城市房价/房租和家庭可支配收入数据,从购房群体和租赁群体视角客观评估了中国城市住房支付能力及其变化,并划分了中国城市住房支付能力空间类型区,最后分析总结了中国城市住房支付能力的影响机制与分类调控对策。研究结果表明：① 中国城市房价收入比略微偏高且有所提升,2015年和2019年的平均房价收入比分别为7.01和7.76;中国城市房租收入比更加合理且有所下降,2015年和2019年的平均房租收入比分别为25.04%和22.01%。② 中国城市住房支付能力空间分异明显,房价收入比呈现出明显的东部高、中西部低的特征,房租收入比却呈现明显的南高北低的特点。③ 根据房价收入比和房租收入比联合空间分布特点,可将中国城市住房支付能力划分为租购支付能力双弱型、租购支付能力偏弱型、购房支付能力偏弱型、租购支付能力双强型和租房支付能力偏弱型等5种空间类型区,不同空间类型区的住房支付能力调控策略有所区别。④ 中国城市住房支付能力的影响机制包括城市住房供给和需求、城市生活质量、社会预期和住房偏好、金融与房地产政策以及家庭收入水平等方面。     

Public perceptions of foreign and Chinese real estate investment: intercultural relations in Global Sydney

Moving foreign human and financial capital through landed property is not a new phenomenon in Sydney. It is a recurring geopolitical strategy that is replete with intercultural tension and deep colonial roots. In contemporary Australia, there is an assumption in public policy and media rhetoric that there is a high level of public concern about foreign investment. However, there is little empirical data that examines public perceptions. In this study, we are interested in whether the dominant voices in this debate represent broad public views about this issue. We sought to fill this gap by conducting a survey of almost 900 Sydney residents, looking at their perceptions of foreign and Chinese investment. We find high levels of public concern and discontent about foreign investment amongst Sydneysiders, with Chinese investors being a key target of this discontent. In the context of high housing prices in Sydney, there were widely held concerns about housing affordability. Survey respondents had a sophisticated understanding of what influences house prices, but with an overemphasis on the role of foreign investment. There is a general lack of support for policy that encourages foreign investment, and a lack of confidence in how the government is regulating foreign investment. Half of our participants reported that they would not welcome Chinese foreign investment in their suburb.     

Prosperity and the Suburban Dream: Quality of life and affordability in western Sydney

Over the past 10 years Sydney has experienced a remarkable wave of economic prosperity and growth, partly due to its developing role as a regionally significant global city. Through this period, maintaining the quality of life in the city has been regarded as particularly important. Yet traditional accounts of the global city have stressed quality-of-life features of the inner city. In this paper I examine the implications of the prosperity of global Sydney for the quality of life of western Sydney, paying particular attention to environmental amenity and the affordability of housing. The paper argues, first, that growth in the Sydney region has depended upon continued growth in western Sydney. It highlights key instances in which residents have resisted developments associated with this growth and regarded as major threats to the environmental amenity of the region. Second, the paper argues that the prosperity of Sydney, combined with changes to government policy, have impacted upon the supply of affordable rental housing in western Sydney. This is particularly significant in the case of public housing. Managing growth in the city will require attention to managing quality-of-life issues in the metropolis as a whole.     

The Social Geographies of Indigenous Population and Housing in Australia's Regional Urban Centres

In recent years, social scientists have turned increasing scholarly focus to the ‘post-colonial city’, as it relates to the lived experiences and socio-cultural worlds of urban-dwelling Indigenous peoples. In Australia, this literature is concerned primarily with issues of identity, power and representation in big cities. More conventional geographic analyses regarding socio-spatial, economic and demographic aspects of urban Indigenous experience have been mostly absent from this discourse. In this paper, we begin to address this gap within the literature by identifying notable socio-spatial, economic, and demographic features of urban Indigenous experience in regional Australian cities. We draw on census and administrative data to empirically examine Indigenous residency, presence, and uneven housing market access in regional urban centres. The analysis builds a national comparative picture regarding population change, tenure type, crowding and housing affordability in these localities. At the same time, it ‘drills down’ to explore some of the drivers and implications of change against these indicators in one case study locality: Geraldton Western Australian. This case study analysis, based on recent fieldwork, grounds the broad identified trends in a localised narrative, illuminating some of general and specific socio-economic and socio-spatial dynamics that shape urban life for Indigenous peoples in regional Australia and the implications of these dynamics for broader questions of co-existence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.     

转型期中国城镇居民住房类型分化及其影响因素——基于CGSS (2005) 的分析

转型时期我国城镇居民主要通过市场竞争机制和科层分配体制来获取个人住房,获取稀缺的住房资源的途径和机会的差异在一定程度上反映了住房不平等和社会分化。处于体制转型时期的中国城镇,制度、市场和家庭因素等多重因素相互交织,共同影响中国城镇居民住房选择。以覆盖全国88 个城镇的《中国综合社会调查(CGSS)》(2005 年城镇部分) 调查资料为基础,本文分析了转型背景下中国城镇居民住房类型分化及其影响因素,研究发现：改革 开放30 多年以来,中国城镇的住房自有率大幅度提高,其主要原因从1998 年前的公房房改政策向1998 年后住房市场化政策转变。家庭生命周期、家庭收入、户籍、单位性质、职业等变 量显著影响住房选择,体现市场与制度对住房资源分配的双重影响。经济发达地区由于住房资源紧缺、住房价格高,居民住房承受能力差异较大,工作单位性质、户籍和家庭生命周期变量对住房选择的影响更显著。随着住房市场化进一步发展和住房制度改革的逐步深入,地方政府应逐步放宽社会住房的享受标准,尤其是户籍限制条件;开发商应更关注社会经济快 速转型背景下的家庭结构变化及其对居住偏好的影响。     

Low-wage jobs-housing fit: identifying locations of affordable housing shortages

Finding the right jobs-housing balance has long been an important concern for urban planners. More recently, attention has turned to jobs-housing fit – the extent to which housing price is well matched to local job quality. Prior analyses have been constrained by a lack of local data on job quality, making it difficult to identify the geography and scale of the problem. We introduce a new methodology for calculating the low-wage jobs-housing fit at both a jurisdiction and neighborhood scale that was designed in collaboration with affordable housing advocates and has been directly applied in urban planning and affordable housing policy efforts. Low-wage fit is particularly important because of ongoing difficulties with affordable housing provision and the disproportionate benefits of reducing transportation costs for low-income earners. We use the calculated metric at both a city and neighborhood scale to identify what can be learned from a low-wage jobs-housing fit metric that is not evident in traditional measures of jobs-housing balance. In contrast to jobs-housing balance, the low-wage fit analysis clearly highlights those jurisdictions and neighborhoods where there is a substantial shortage of affordable housing in relation to the number of low-wage jobs. Because of the geographic coverage of the data sources used, the results can be widely applied across the United States by affordable housing advocates, land-use planners, and policy makers.     

I cannot afford to live alone in this city and I enjoy the company of others: why people are share housing in Sydney

ABSTRACT

Share housing is changing. Once considered a form of short-term housing and a lifestyle choice for young adults fresh out of the family home, share housing is increasingly playing a broader role into advanced adulthood. Recent work has claimed the emergence of Generation Rent; however, the reconfiguration of housing experiences is illustrated not only by renting but also by an increase in house sharing and the emergence of ‘Generation Share’ within the renting cohort. We know surprisingly little about share housing and its increasingly important role in housing. This paper draws upon exploratory research conducted on share housing in Sydney, Australia, and argues that share housing as traditionally understood is changing. Share housing has a widening demographic and it is driven primarily by economic factors. Despite this, the social affordances offered by share housing are highly valued. Share housing therefore offers us a unique lens into changing housing pathways and values and provokes us to think of ways to produce more socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable housing.     

北京经济适用房布局特征及影响因素研究

20 世纪90 年代,中国开始实施经济适用住房政策。然而,在政策的实施过程中,由于不合理的布局,经济适用住房并没有切实解决中低收入家庭的住房问题。学者们通过研究发现,大多数经济适用住房被安排在城市边缘地区,缺乏配套公共设施。目前,相关研究较多关注经济适用住房的空间布局及其引发的社会问题,少有学者关注影响经济适用住房布局的因素。因此,本文试图从地方政府的视角解答影响经济适用住房布局的因素。研究提出假设,地方政府受到土地财政收入的驱动,将经济适用住房项目布置在对土地收益损失最小的地方,同时兼顾政策实施过程中的拆迁压力、住房市场结构以及公共交通便利性等。在假设基础上,对北京经济适用住房空间布局的时空特征进行分析,并构建经济适用住房布局的影响因素模型。结果发现：1999-2009 年间北京经济适用住房建设速度放慢,同时呈现向五环以外扩散及向某些点集聚的趋势;模型结果证实土地价格是政府在落实经济适用住房项目时考虑的重要因素。     

The price ripple effect in the Vancouver housing market

Attempts to model the dynamic characteristics of a housing market include examining the spatial diffusion of price changes from an epicenter through a regional or national network of geographic units. Less common has been the study of a ripple effect of price changes within a single metropolitan area, with implications for the erosion of residential affordability. Such trends have particular salience within the Vancouver metropolitan area, the least affordable housing market in North America. Using quarterly price data from local real estate boards, we examine price changes through municipal regions from 2005–2017, a period including several externally-induced price shocks. Several techniques test for a ripple effect in price movements. A time lag of three months consistently exists in the communication of price shocks from an originating epicenter to other parts of the metropolitan region, with longer lags with several more distant municipalities, confirming the presence of an intra-metropolitan ripple effect.     

广州市保障房住区居住环境品质及其制度影响因素研究

为应对住房市场化改革带来的严峻的住房担负问题,中央政府推行了大规模建设保障房的政策,但政策实施成效,特别是保障房住区的居住环境品质状况,仍有待进一步探究。于2015年对广州11处保障房住区居民的问卷调查和访谈,并基于与城市工作POI核密度的分析结果匹配发现,保障房住区在空间和社会双重孤立的区位很大程度上造成了其不宜人的居住环境,难以与低收入居民的实际需求相匹配。既有的行政管理体制、政府职能部门间低效的沟通、不稳定的土地来源成为阻碍保障房供应和住区居住环境品质提升的重要制度因素。     

中国市域居民住房支付能力时空演变及影响因素

利用泰尔指数、σ系数、莫兰指数和空间回归模型等方法，对2012—2017年中国大陆346个市域单元收入房价比的时空演变规律进行分析，并探究其影响因素。结果表明：2012—2017年，中国市域单元收入房价比排名整体表现为东部>中部>东北>西部，其相对差异和绝对差异均随时间呈现增大趋势，居民住房支付能力稳步增强。2012—2017年，中国市域单元收入房价比的空间集聚性显著增强，空间分布不均衡性有逐渐增强的趋势。经济水平、城镇化水平、房地产投资水平、城市规模是影响中国市域住房支付能力的主要影响因素，其中，经济水平和城镇化水平对居民住房支付能力具有较大的正向影响，而房地产投资水平和城市规模为负向影响；2012—2017年我国东北和东中西部则不同程度上受不同影响因素的影响。     

市场转型期中国大城市低收入社区住房分异研究

基于2007年在广州、武汉、西安3个大城市的低收入社区开展的大型入户调查数据,在社区尺度探究了中国大城市低收入社区中不同社会经济群体间的住房分异情况,并分析了在社会经济转型背景下的制度因素(如户口、邻里类型、雇主类型等)和市场因素（如社会群体、年龄、受教育程度、家庭收入、职业等）对住房产权和居住条件的影响。通过计算泰尔指数发现,大城市低收入社区中不同群体间和群体内的住房分异情况都较显著,但群体内部的差异较群体间的差异更为明显。对住房条件的多元回归分析结果表明,低收入社区不同社会群体的住房条件在不同程度上受到制度因素和市场因素的影响。制度因素对住房面积等难以在短时间内改变的住房条件的作用较市场因素更显著,而市场因素对于住房设施等较易改变的住房条件的影响要比制度因素明显。     

Open for Business but at What Cost? Housing issues in ‘boomtown’ Darwin

The Greater Darwin area has long experienced high housing costs and high rates of homelessness. Into this already stressed housing context have come large-scale, natural resource development projects, which are predicted to bring thousands of new workers to town, and exciting property investor interest. While many view these developments as positive, there is concern about the impacts upon the most vulnerable members of the population. This paper presents the findings of a qualitative research project exploring current housing issues in the Greater Darwin area. Interviews with housing support service providers and real estate agents reveal that the current population and investment growth have exacerbated longstanding housing issues. Increased housing stress in Darwin, and a myopic focus on rapid economic growth, may disenfranchise current residents and undermine service and support industries. We argue that while there may be some economic benefits from a ‘booming’ Darwin, greater planning and partnership between government, community organisations and corporates is required to ensure the benefits are spread across the population. Unfortunately, the Northern Territory government's dilatory approach to both housing issues and the social costs of the resources boom makes it highly unlikely innovative partnerships will occur.     

A Typology of Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage in Australia's Large Non-Metropolitan Cities,Towns and Regions

Australia's large regional cities and towns display a wide variation in their adjustment to the socio-economic transitions that have occurred over the past decade. In terms of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage, these changes, often associated with globalisation, wider economic and technological restructuring, the changing demographics of the population and shifts in public policy, are not evenly dispersed across non-metropolitan regions. Such outcomes have been discussed across a variety of academic disciplines using a variety of data and methods, and the research undertaken has provided a useful grounding for contemporary studies both theoretically and methodologically. Analysis of new data provides an opportunity to extend and update our understanding. This paper presents an analysis of secondary data aimed at analysing non-metropolitan cities, towns and regions based on differential levels of socio-economic performance. Using an alternative clustering method, this paper groups non-metropolitan cities, towns and regions according to the degree to which they share similar socio-economic and demographic outcomes. These clusters form the basis of a typology representing the range of socio-economic and demographic outcomes at the non-metropolitan level.     

中国城镇房价收入比时空演变的多尺度分析

从全国、省级、市级多个尺度,运用空间自相关和变异系数等方法对中国1999~2012年城镇房价收入比的时空演变特征和分异规律进行了系统分析。结果表明：① 中国城镇房价收入比的时空格局演变特征表现出明显的空间尺度效应,国家尺度呈波动上升趋势,省级尺度先上升后分异,大中城市不断升高,且在2007~2011年省、市级尺度下存在较显著的空间自相关,表明近年来中国房地产市场的空间邻近联动性明显增强;② 房价收入弹性分析表明2003~2012年全国大约70%的大中城市居民的收入涨幅赶不上房价涨幅,部分城市泡沫存在的可能性较大,居民住房支付能力不断下降;③ 全国和东部地区省份间的空间差异2003年之前为缩小趋势,之后逐渐增大,中西部省份间差异较小且基本处于缩小态势,市级房价收入比的差异要明显高于省级尺度的差异且呈上升趋势,空间差异的变化存在尺度效应和分区效应。     

广州租赁住房的空间分布格局及其成因

采用开放数据,并借助K-means聚类等空间计量方法,解析广州租赁住房空间的格局特征,结果发现：1）租赁住房空间与商品住房空间在中心城区具有明显的东西分离的分布特征,同时租赁住房空间沿交通线分布的趋势更为明显,并在中心城区外围形成几处集中分布的地区;2）广州租赁住房空间分为核心租赁地区、核心自住地区、次级租赁地区、外围租赁地区、低容量自住地区和其他地区6种类型;3）投资性购房热潮、城市发展战略导向与轨道交通建设、郊区化与同城化的共同影响促成了广州租赁住房的空间分布格局。