Numerical simulation of seawater intrusion from estuary into river using a coupled modeling system

One of the most important causes of the freshwater shortage in estuarine area is the increasing seawater intrusion into the river. To simulate seawater intrusion properly, two important factors should be considered. One is the bidirectional and time-dependent coupling effects between river discharges and tidal forces. The other is the three-dimensional and stratified structure of dynamic processes involved. However, these two factors have rarely been investigated simultaneously, or they were often simplified in previous researches, especially for the estuary connected with an upstream river network through multiple outlets such as the Pearl River Estuary (PRE). In order to consider these two factors, a numerical modeling system, which couples a one-dimensional river network model with a three-dimensional unstructured-grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM), has been developed and successfully applied to the simulation of seawater intrusion into rivers emptying into the PRE. By treating the river network with a one-dimensional model, computational efficiency has been improved. With coupling 1D and 3D models, the specification of up-stream boundary conditions becomes more convenient. Simulated results are compared with field measured data. Good agreement indicates that the modeling system may correctly capture the physical processes of seawater intrusion into rivers.     

Failure mechanism and stability analysis of the Zhenggang landslide in Yunnan Province of China using 3D particle flow code simulation

Based on the principle of 3D particle flow code, a numerical landslide run-out model is presented to simulate the failure process of the Zhenggang landslide (in southwestern China) under the effect of water after a rainfall. The relationship between the micro-mechanical parameters and the macro-shear strength of the grain material is determined through numerical calibrations. Then the rainfall effect is considered in numerical simulations and rain-induced sliding processes are performed, which help us to discuss the mechanism of deformation and failure of this landslide together with field observations. It shows the Zhenggang landslide would most likely be activated in Zone I and would gain momentum in Zone II. In order to prevent the potential disaster, a tailing dam is advised to be designed about 175 m downstream from the current landslide boundary of Zone II. Verified by field observations, the presented landslide model can reflect the failure mechanism after rainfall. It can also provide a method to predict the potential disaster and draft disaster prevention measures.     

Dynamic process analysis of the Niumiangou landslide triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake using the finite difference method and a modified discontinuous deformation analysis

The Niumiangou landslide was the largest landslide triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which was significantly affected by the amplification effect of seismic acceleration. The ringshear experiments indicated that the materials in the source area of the Niumiangou landslide were subjected to friction degradation under a big shear displacement, which may result in rapid movement of the landslide. In order to better understand the landslide movement and study the effect of the friction degradation on movement mechanisms, the dynamic process of Niumiangou landslide was simulated with a new numerical method, which combines the finite difference method(FDM) and the discontinuous deformation analysis(DDA). First, the FDM was used to study the initiation time, amplification effect and velocity of the landslide. Afterwards, these initiation velocities were applied to the blocks in the DDA model by corresponding coordination in the FDM model. A displacementdependent friction model of the sliding surface was incorporated into DDA code to further understand the kinetic behavior of the landslide. The results show that the displacement-dependent friction strongly decreases the friction coefficient of sliding surface under a big displacement, which can obviously promote the run-out and velocity of landslide. The model output well matches the topographic map formed by the landslide. This implies that the proposed model can be applied to the simulation of earthquake-induced landslides with amplification effect, and the friction degradation model is important to clarify the movement mechanism of high-speed and long-distance landslides.     

Numerical Modelling for Dynamic Instability Process of Submarine Soft Clay Slopes Under Seismic Loading

Marine geological disasters occurred frequently in the deep-water slope area of the northern South China Sea, especially submarine landslides, which caused serious damage to marine facilities. The cyclic elastoplastic model that can describe the cyclic stress-strain response characteristic for soft clay, is embedded into the coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian(CEL) algorithm of ABAQUS by means of subroutine interface technology. On the basis of CEL technique and undrained cyclic elastoplastic model, a method for analyzing the dynamic instability process of marine slopes under the action of earthquake load is developed. The rationality for cyclic elastoplastic constitutive model is validated by comparing its calculated results with those of von Mises model built in Abaqus. The dynamic instability process of slopes under different conditions are analyzed. The results indicate that the deformation accumulation of soft clay have a significant effect on the dynamic instability process of submarine slopes under earthquake loading. The cumulative deformation is taken into our model and this makes the calculated final deformation of the slope under earthquake load larger than the results of conventional numerical method. When different contact conditions are used for analysis, the smaller the friction coefficient is, the larger the deformation of slopes will be. A numerical analysis method that can both reflect the dynamic properties of soft clay and display the dynamic instability process of submarine landslide is proposed, which could visually predict the topographies of the previous and post failure for submarine slope.     

ADI barotropic ocean model for simulation of Kuroshio intrusion into China southeastern waters

In this numerical model for simulating the Kuroshio intrusion into the East and South China Seas, vertically averaged marine hydrodynamic equations governing ocean currents and long-period waves are approximated by a set of two-time-level semi-implicit fimite difference equations. The major terms including the local acoeleration, sea-surface slope, Coriolis force and the bottom friction are approximated with the Crank-Nicholson scheme, which is of second order accuracy. The advection terms are approximated with the Leith scheme. The difference equations are split into two sets of alternating direction implicit equations, each of which has a tridiagonal matrix and can be easily solved. The model reproduces a major Kuroshio intrusion north of Luzon Island, one north of Taiwan Island, and one west of the Tokara Strait. The model shows a current system running from the Luzon Strait to the coast of Vietnam and Hainan Island, through the Taiwan Strait and then into the Tsushima Strait. The summer and winter monsoons generate several eddies in the South China Sea. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

ADI BAROTROPIC OCEAN MODEL FOR SIMULATON OF KUROSHIO INTRUSION INTO CHINA SOUTHEASTERN WATERS

In this numerical model for simulating the Kuroshio intrusion into the East and South China Seas,vertically averaged marine hydrodynamic equations governing ocean currents and long-period waves areapproximated by a set of two-time-level semi-implicit finite difference equations. The major terms in-cluding the local acceleration, sea-surface slope, Coriolis force and the bottom friction are approxi-mated with the Crank-Nicholson scheme, which is of second order accuracy. The advection terms are app-roximated with the Leith scheme. The difference equations are split into two sets of alternating directionimplicit quations, each of which has a tridiagonal matrix and can be easily solved. The model reproduces a major Kuroshio intrusion north of Luzon Island, one north of Taiwan Island, andone west of the Tokara Strait. The model shows a current system running from the Luzon Strait to the coastof Vietnam and Hainan Island, through the Taiwan Strait and then into the Tsushima Strait. The summerand winter monso     

Dynamic hydraulic jump and retrograde sedimentation in an open channel induced by sediment supply: experimental study and SPH simulation

Mountainous torrents often carry large amounts of loose materials into the rivers, thus causing strong sediment transport. Experimentally it was found for the first time that when the intensive sediment motion occurs downstream over a gentle slope, the siltation of the riverbed is induced and the sediment particles can move upstream rapidly in the form of a retrograde sand wave, resulting in a higher water level along the river. To further study the complex mechanisms of this problem, a sediment mass model in the framework of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics(SPH) method was presented to simulate the riverbed evolution, sediment particle motion, and the generation and development of dynamic hydraulic jump under the condition of sufficient sediment supply over a steep slope with varying angles. Because the sediment is not a continuous medium, the marker particle tracking approach was proposed to represent a piece of sediment with a marked sediment particle. The twophase SPH model realizes the interaction between the sediment and fluid by moving the bed boundary particles up and down, so it can reasonably treat the fluid-sediment interfaces with high CPU efficiency. The critical triggering condition of sediment motion, the propagation of the hydraulic jump and the initial siltation position were all systematically studied. The experimental and numerical results revealed the extra disastrous sediment effect in a mountainous flood. The findings will be useful references to the disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous rivers.     

Simulation of landslide run-out by considering frictional heating and thermal pressurization

Some of the remarkable characteristics of natural landslides, such as surprisingly long travel distances and high velocities, have been attributed to the mechanisms of frictional heating and thermal pressurization. In this work, this mechanism is combined with a depth-averaged model to simulate the long runout of landslides in the condition of deformation. Some important factors that influence frictional heating and thermal pressurization within the shear zone are further considered, including velocity profile and pressurization coefficient. In order to solve the coupled equations, a combined computational method based on the finite volume method and quadratic upwind interpolation for convective kinematics scheme is proposed. Several numerical tests are performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the computational scheme, the influence of thermal pressurization on landslide run-out, and the potential of the model to simulate an actual landslide.     

基于物理力学机制的滑坡数值预报模式: 综述、挑战与机遇

滑坡预测预报是地质灾害防治领域长期以来备受关注的前沿科学问题。当前的研究框架专注于滑坡的变形行为特征与外动力因素, 面临着普适性不强与预报精准度不高的双重瓶颈问题。基于目前研究现状, 系统梳理了滑带流变力学行为与强度弱化效应的内涵, 阐述了滑坡渐进破坏演化机制, 总结了滑坡预测预报模型所包含的类型, 并介绍了其中的典型模型, 指出当前研究主要存在如下问题: ①滑坡演化物理力学模型尚需扩展; ②预测预报模型未能充分结合滑坡演化过程和物理力学模型; ③物理力学模型预测与多场监测数据间的兼容性问题未能实际解决。针对上述问题, 阐述了基于物理力学过程的滑坡预测预报所面临的挑战, 并立足多学科融合与交叉, 提出了开展滑坡预测预报研究的新思路。新思路要求从滑坡滑带介质特性与流变力学行为出发, 建立滑坡演化过程物理力学模型, 紧密结合实时多场监测数据, 建立滑坡数值预报模式, 实现滑坡物理力学过程实时动态更新, 以期实现理论与技术的突破。      

一种新的基于相关性的层次型分布式入侵检测模型

针对传统的分布式入侵检测模型的局限性,提出了一种新的基于相关性的层次型分布式入侵检测模型,有效地解决分布式模型中通信代价和检测准确性的矛盾。核心思想是:检测代理间的协作程度应该和其相关性成正比。通过量化检测代理间的相关性,将整个分布式系统分割成多个高度相关的子系统,而子系统间通过动态代言人机制进行协作,有效地减少分布式系统中低价值的通信。最后从理论上证明了有效性和高效性。     

Landslide dynamic process and parameter sensitivity analysis by discrete element method: the case of Turnoff Creek rock avalanche

The great diversity and complexity of geological hazards in terms of flowing materials, environment, triggering mechanisms and physical processes during the flow bring great difficulties to the numerical parameter selection for the discrete element method. In order to identity the significance of individual parameters on the landslides dynamic process and provide valuable contribution to the runout analysis of similar landslide, the dynamic process and associated microscopic mechanism of the Turnoff Creek rock avalanche in Canada are simulated. The present numerical results are compared with the field survey data and the results of depth-integrated continuum method. The final deposit range matches well with the field survey data. It is illustrated that the discrete element method is robust and feasible to capture the dynamic characteristics of large rock avalanche over a complex terrain. Besides, a new method to assess the landslide hazard level based on the discrete element method is proposed. According to the parameter sensitivity analysis, it is demonstrated that the basal friction coefficient and bond strength are essential to the final deposit while rolling coefficient and restitution coefficient have little effects on it.     

Long runout mechanism of the Shenzhen 2015 landslide: insights from a two-phase flow viewpoint

A catastrophic landslide occurred at Hongao dumpsite in Guangming New District of Shenzhen, South China, on December 20, 2015. An estimated total volume of 2.73×106 m3 of construction spoils was mobilized during this event. The landslide traveled a long distance on a low-relief terrain. The affected area was approximately 1100 m in length and 630 m in width. This landslide made 33 buildings destroyed, 73 people died and 4 people lost. Due to the special dumping history and other factors, soil in this landfill is of high initial water content. To identify the major factors that attribute to the long runout character, a two-phase flow model of Iverson and George was used to simulate the dynamics of this landslide. The influence of initial hydraulic permeability, initial dilatancy, and earth pressure coefficient was examined through numerical simulations. We found that pore pressure has the most significant effect on the dynamic characteristics of Shenzhen landslides. Average pore pressure ratio ofthe whole basal surface was used to evaluate the degree of liquefaction for the sliding material. The evolution and influence factors of this ratio were analyzed based on the computational results. An exponential function was proposed to fit the evolution curve of the average pore pressure ratio, which can be used as a reasonable and simplified evaluation of the pore pressure. This fitting function can be utilized to improve the single-phase flow model.     

Dynamic prediction of landslide displacement using singular spectrum analysis and stack long short-term memory network

An accurate landslide displacement prediction is an important part of landslide warning system. Aiming at the dynamic characteristics of landslide evolution and the shortcomings of traditional static prediction models, this paper proposes a dynamic prediction model of landslide displacement based on singular spectrum analysis(SSA) and stack long short-term memory(SLSTM) network. The SSA is used to decompose the landslide accumulated displacement time series data into trend term and periodic term displacement subsequences. A cubic polynomial function is used to predict the trend term displacement subsequence, and the SLSTM neural network is used to predict the periodic term displacement subsequence. At the same time, the Bayesian optimization algorithm is used to determine that the SLSTM network input sequence length is 12 and the number of hidden layer nodes is 18. The SLSTM network is updated by adding predicted values to the training set to achieve dynamic displacement prediction. Finally, the accumulated landslide displacement is obtained by superimposing the predicted value of each displacement subsequence. The proposed model was verified on the Xintan landslide in Hubei Province, China. The results show that when predicting the displacement of the periodic term, the SLSTM network has higher prediction accuracy than the support vector machine(SVM) and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA). The mean relative error(MRE) is reduced by 4.099% and 3.548% respectively, while the root mean square error(RMSE) is reduced by 5.830 mm and 3.854 mm respectively. It is concluded that the SLSTM network model can better simulate the dynamic characteristics of landslides.     

Displacement characteristics and prediction of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir

In order to reach the designated final water level of 175 m, there were three impoundment stages in the Three Gorges Reservoir, with water levels of 135 m, 156 m and 175 m. Baishuihe landslide in the Reservoir was chosen to analyze its displacement characteristics and displacement variability at the different stages. Based on monitoring data, the landslide displacement was mainly influenced by rainfall and drawdown of the reservoir water level. However, the magnitude of the rise and drawdown of the water level after the reservoir water level reached 175 m did not accelerate landslide displacement. The prediction of landslide displacement for active landslides is very important for landslide risk management. The time series of cumulative displacement was divided into a trend term and a periodic term using the Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter method. The polynomial model was used to predict the trend term. The extreme learning machine(ELM) and least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) were chosen to predict theperiodic term. In the prediction model for the periodic term, input variables based on the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level in landslide displacement were selected using grey relational analysis. Based on the results, the prediction precision of ELM is better than that of LS-SVM for predicting landslide displacement. The method for predicting landslide displacement could be applied by relevant authorities in making landslide emergency plans in the future.     

Numerical Simulation of Thermal Discharge Based on FVM Method

A two-dimensional numerical model is proposed to simulate the thermal discharge from a power plant in Jiangsu Province. The equations in the model consist of two-dimensional non-steady shallow water equations and thermal waste transport equations. Finite volume method （FVM） is used to discretize the shallow water equations, and flux difference splitting （FDS） scheme is applied. The calculated area with the same temperature increment shows the effect of thermal discharge on sea water. A comparison between simulated results and the experimental data shows good agreement. It indicates that this method can give high precision in the heat transfer simulation in coastal areas.     

基于临界状态的边坡渐进破坏力学模型分析及应用

边坡条分法物理意义是以强度折减表征材料峰值强度的下降程度。以不平衡推力部分强度折减法为例,推广传统假设,应用理想弹塑性模型和全过程剪应力-应变模型,在峰值剪应力和峰值应变相等条件下,模拟边坡的渐进破坏过程;提出了临界状态决定法,随着临界状态逐步移动,边坡不平衡力和驱动力越来越大,抗滑力越来越小,直至整体处于破坏状态。以湖北省恩施州稻池村边坡为例,以3种数值(部分强度折减、理想弹塑性和全过程剪应力-应变本构)模型揭示边坡渐进破坏过程中各参量变化特征。结果表明:3种数值条块法均能描述稻池村边坡渐进破坏过程,基于条分法和理想弹塑性模型部分强度折减系数大于全过程剪应力-应变本构模型稳定系数。      

数字滑坡与数字仿真应用研究

在 GIS支持下建立数字滑坡 ,利用其空间分析、立体显示能力在三维空间中进行滑坡稳定性分析、定量动态计算滑坡稳定性系数 ,确定滑坡滑动方向 ;研究滑坡启动机制和滑坡运动规律。建立滑坡方向稳定系数概念 ,完成了在三维空间里计算滑坡稳定系数和确定滑坡滑动方向的精确定量方法研究 :完成滑坡启动机制和滑坡运动规律的数字化、可视化三维动态研究。在此基础上建立相应的数学模型对滑坡进行 :静止-运动-停止全过程的三维数字化、可视化动态研究与数字仿真、模拟。最终完成了在 GIS支持下的数字滑坡三维动态研究与数字仿真。     

Vorticity budget study on the seasonal upper circulation in the northern South China Sea from altimetry data and a numerical model

Based on the EOF analyses of Absolute Dynamic Topography satellite data,it is found that,in summer,the northern South China Sea(SCS) is dominated by an anticyclonic gyre whilst by a cyclonic one in winter.A connected single-layer and two-layer model is employed here to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the circulation in the northern SCS.Numerical experiments show that the nonlinear term,the pressure torque and the planetary vorticity advection play important roles in the circulation of the northern SCS,whilst the contribution by seasonal wind stress curl is local and limited.Only a small part of the Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS,it then induces a positive vorticity band extending southwestward from the west of the Luzon Strait(LS) and a negative vorticity band along the 200 m isobath of the northern basin.The positive vorticity field induced by the local summer wind stress curl is weaker than that induced in winter in the northern SCS.Besides the Kuroshio intrusion and monsoon,the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are also important to the circulation in the northern SCS,and the induced vorticity field in summer is almost contrary to that in winter.The strength variations of these three key factors(Kuroshio,monsoon and the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage) determine the seasonal variations of the vorticity and eddy fields in the northern SCS.As for the water exchange via the LS,the Kuroshio intrusion brings about a net inflow into the SCS,and the monsoon has a less effect,whilst the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are the most important influencing factors,thus,the water exchange of the SCS with the Pacific via the LS changes dramatically from an outflow of the SCS in summer to an inflow into the SCS in winter.     

Progressive modelling of the gravity-induced landslide using the local dynamic strength reduction method

The failure of slope is a progressive process, and the whole sliding surface is caused by the gradual softening of soil strength of the potential sliding surface. From this viewpoint, a local dynamic strength reduction method is proposed to capture the progressive failure of slope. This method can calculate the warning deformation of landslide in this study. Only strength parameters of the yielded zone of landslide will be reduced by using the method. Through continuous local reduction of the strength parameters of the yielded zone, the potential sliding surface developed gradually and evolved to breakthrough finally. The result shows that the proposed method can simulate the progressive failure of slope truly. The yielded zone and deformation of landslide obtained by the method are smaller than those of overall strength reduction method. The warning deformation of landslide can be obtained by using the local dynamic strength reduction method which is based on the softening characteristics of the sliding surface.