Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.     

Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.     

Intensity attenuation in the Campania region,Southern Italy

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M _w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.     

Macroseismic field of the October 27, 2004 Vrancea (Romania) moderate subcrustal earthquake

On October 27, 2004, a moderate size earthquake occurred in the Vrancea seismogenic region (Romania). The Vrancea seismic zone is an area of concentrated seismicity at intermediate depths beneath the bending area of the southeastern Carpathians. The 2004 M _w?=?6 Vrancea subcrustal earthquake is the largest seismic event recorded in Romania since the 1990 earthquakes. With a maximum macroseismic intensity of VII Medvedev–Sponheuer–Kárník (MSK-64) scale, the seismic event was felt to a distance of 600 km from the epicentre. This earthquake caused no serious damage and human injuries. The main purpose of this paper is to present the macroseismic map of the earthquake based on the MSK-64 intensity scale. After the evaluation of the macroseismic effects of this earthquake, an intensity dataset has been obtained for 475 sites in the Romanian territory. Also, the maximum horizontal accelerations recorded in the area by the K2 network are compared to the intensity values.     

Probabilistic Microzonation of Urban Territories: A Case of Tashkent City

—?The problem of accounting for local soil effect on earthquake ground motion is especially urgent when assessing seismic hazard – recent needs of earthquake engineering require local site effects to be included into hazard maps. However, most recent works do not consider the variety of soil conditions or are performed for generalized site categories, such as “hard rock,”“soft soil” or “alluvium.” A technique of seismic hazard calculations on the basis of the Fourier Amplitude Spectra recently developed by the authors allows us to create hazard maps involving the influence of local soil conditions using soil/bedrock spectral ratios. Probabilistic microzoning maps may be constructed showing macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, response and design spectra for various return periods (probability of exceedance), that allow optimization of engineering decisions. An application of this approach is presented which focused on the probabilistic microzoning of the Tashkent City.     

The Grandori model: Anisotropic formulation and its application in the plotting of seismic hazard maps

The seismic hazard for the Calabro-Sicilian area is evaluated using an anisotropic formulation of the Grandori attenuation law. For each macroseismic field two main directions are identified: minimum and maximum attenuation of the macroseismic intensity. The results of the investigation show that the anisotropic formulation improves the compatibility level of the model (with respect to the isotropic one) with the intensities observed and produces probabilistic expected intensities which compare favourably with the values of seismic history in the investigated area when the zonation defined by the Messina University research group was used.     

Seismic hazard assessment in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic data applied to volcano-tectonic seismicity

In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (I_ref), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of “regional” events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with I_ref values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the “design earthquake” and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index.     

Damage to residential buildings in Hveragerði during the 2008 Ölfus Earthquake: simulated and surveyed results

This study analyses the performance of residential buildings in the town of Hveragerði in South Iceland during the 29 May 2008 Mw 6.3 Ölfus Earthquake. The earthquake occurred very close to the town, approximately 3–4 km from it. Ground shaking caused by the earthquake was recorded by a dense strong-motion array in the town. The array provided high-quality three-component ground acceleration data which is used to quantify a hazard scenario. In addition, surveys conducted in the town in the aftermath of the earthquake have provided information on macroseismic intensity at various locations in the town. Detailed information regarding the building stock in the town is collected, and their seismic vulnerability models are created by using building damage data obtained from the June 2000 South Iceland earthquakes. Damage to buildings are then simulated by using the scenario hazard and vulnerability models. Damage estimates were also obtained by conducting a survey. Simulated damage based on the scenario macroseismic intensity is found to be similar to damage estimated from survey data. The buildings performed very well during the earthquake—damage suffered was only 5 % of the insured value on the average. Correlation between actual damage and recorded ground-motion parameters is found to be statistically insignificant. No significant correlation of damage was observed, even with macroseismic intensity. Whereas significant correlation was observed between peak ground velocity and macroseismic intensity, neither of them appear to be good indicators of damage to buildings in the study area. This lack of correlation is partly due to good seismic capacity of buildings and partly due to the ordinal nature of macroseismic intensity scale. Consistent with experience from many past earthquakes, the survey results indicate that seismic risk in South Iceland is not so much due to collapse of buildings but rather due to damage to non-structural components and building contents.     

Building vulnerability and seismic risk analysis in the urban area of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy)

The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.     

Transfrontier macroseismic observations of the Ml = 5.4 earthquake of February 22, 2003 at Rambervillers,France

The 2003 Ml = 5.4 Rambervillers earthquake, north-east of France, is the largest seismic event recorded north of the Alps since the 1992 Ms = 5.3, I₀ = VII, Roermond earthquake, Netherlands. With a maximum macroseismic intensity of VI-VII EMS-98, the 2003 event was broadly felt to a distance of 300 km from the epicentre. It provides a unique opportunity to test and compare the different procedures used in France, Germany and Switzerland when evaluating macroseismic intensities. The main purpose of this paper is to present a common transfrontier macroseismic map based on the EMS-98 intensity scale. Maximum horizontal accelerations recorded in the area are compared to the intensity values, and we propose to use a differential technique to re-estimate the magnitude of the 1682 Remiremont, I₀ = VIII, earthquake, which occurred 40 km south of Rambervillers.     

The Umbria–Marche case: some suggestions for the Italian seismic zonation

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps, in terms of spectral acceleration and uniform hazard response spectra at given sites, considering local soil conditions, represent a much more complete estimate of the seismic hazard than the traditional maps in terms of peak ground acceleration or macroseismic intensity. This is particularly true when the requests of urban planners and engineers have to be met. The present analysis shows how some hazard parameters, such as the effective peak acceleration and the spectrum intensity, can well synthesise the overall information available from traditional probabilistic studies, but also suggests that soil condition is a first-order ingredient for effective seismic hazard mapping at national level. Three Italian towns, damaged by the 1997 Umbria–Marche earthquake sequence, are considered as example to demonstrate that: (1) soil condition dependent uniform hazard spectra well approximate actual spectra recorded during some events of the seismic sequence; (2) for these localities, the design spectrum of the present Italian seismic code does not seem adequate.

These considerations have induced the Italian scientific community to propose an updating of the national seismic zonation on the basis of several hazard parameters, that are described in this paper.     

Isoseismal maps drawing by the kriging method

Macroseismic intensity, a useful measure of earthquake effects, is still applied in a wide range of seismological applications like seismic hazard assessments, attenuation relationships, etc. Isoseismals represent the spatial distribution of macroseismic intensities, and their shapes depend on source properties, lithosphere structures, tectonic line orientations, site geology, and topography. The applications ask for both the higher number of isoseismal maps, and their standardization and homogenization. The point kriging gridding method for an automatic computer drawing of isoseismal maps was delivered. Smoothing rates and numerical parameters used in the kriging algorithm were tested on macroseismic data of Greek earthquakes representing different tectonic and geomorphological regimes. The optimum kriging default option was defined. Its application for four Greek earthquakes is presented and discussed from the viewpoint of a broad use in recent macroseismology. The online version of the original article can be found at .     

Isoseismal maps drawing by the kriging method

Macroseismic intensity, a useful measure of earthquake effects, is still applied in a wide range of seismological applications like seismic hazard assessments, attenuation relationships, etc. Isoseismals represent the spatial distribution of macroseismic intensities and their shapes depend on source properties, lithosphere structures, tectonic line orientations, site geology and topography. The applications ask for both the higher number of isoseismal maps and their standardization and homogenization. The point kriging gridding method for an automatic computer drawing of isoseismal maps was delivered. Smoothing rates and numerical parameters used in the kriging algorithm were tested on macroseismic data of Greek earthquakes representing different tectonic and geomorphological regimes. The optimum kriging default option was defined. Its application for four Greek earthquakes is presented and discussed from viewpoint of a broad use in recent macroseismology. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Seismic hazard assessment in continental Ecuador

A seismic hazard assessment study of continental Ecuador is presented in this paper. The study begins with a revision of the available information on seismic events and the elaboration of a seismic catalog homogenized to magnitude Mw. Different seismic source definitions are revised and a new area-source model, based on geological and seismic data, is proposed. The available ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction sources are analyzed and selected for the tectonic environments observed in Ecuador. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is carried out to evaluate the exceedance probability of several levels of peak ground acceleration PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods (T) of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. The resulting hazard maps for continental Ecuador are presented, together with the uniform hazard spectra of four province capital cities. Hazard disaggregation is carried out for target motions defined by the PGA values and SA (1s) expected for return periods of 475 and 2475 years, providing estimates for short-period and long-period controlling earthquakes.     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

23 November 1980 Irpinia–Basilicata earthquake (Southern Italy): towards a full knowledge of the seismic effects

This paper overviews the procedures and tools used for a systematic study of the macroseismic consequences caused by a strong earthquake that struck Southern Italy. The event referred to the 23 November 1980 (Io = X MCS, Ms = 6.9) which affected the Campania and Basilicata regions. Two aspects are addressed here: to broaden the knowledge of the macroseismic field and delineate damage maps of the sites affected on an urban scale. The target area of this study is the Basilicata region about which the current macroseismic information is poor. This research study, based only on unpublished documentary sources, supplies about 50 new assessments and about 30 new re-assessments of the macroseismic site intensity (MCS scale) as outputs. Moreover, about 80 thematic maps showing the damage pattern of the sites affected are also supplied. It is the first time that a large earthquake has been the subject of such extensive studies from a macroseismic point of view, with special attention to the analysis of damage effects at town scale.     

On a homogeneous representation of seismic history in large regions

The possibility to obtain a more complete and unbiased long-term history of seismic shakings over large territories than is explicitly reported from inhabited localities is discussed in the paper. An approach proposed for this purpose consists in complementing the spatial distribution of the macroseismic effect of earthquakes by calculated intensities at localities where information on felt shakings is absent. The calculated intensity is obtained on the basis of data on the epicentral intensity and location of epicenters provided by earthquake catalogs. This approach is applied to the analysis of the history of seismic shaking in Spain. The calculated intensities are shown to be comparable in accuracy with the ordinary practice of intensity determinations at national seismological centers.     

Field survey around strong motion stations and its implications on the seismic intensity in the Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013

The M _s7.0 Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013 is another destructive event in China since the M _s8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and M _s7.1 Yushu earthquake in 2010. A large number of strong motion recordings were accumulated by the National Strong Motion Observation Network System of China. The maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) at Station 51BXD in Baoxing Country is recorded as ?1,005.3 cm/s², which is even larger than the maximum one in the Wenchuan earthquake. A field survey around three typical strong motion stations confirms that the earthquake damage is consistent with the issued map of macroseismic intensity. For the oscillation period 0.3–1.0 s which is the common natural period range of the Chinese civil building, a comparison shows that the observed response spectrums are considerably smaller than the designed values in the Chinese code and this could be one of the reasons that the macroseismic intensity is lower than what we expected despite the high amplitude of PGAs. The Housner spectral intensities from 16 stations are also basically correlated with their macroseismic intensities, and the empirical distribution of spectral intensities from Lushan and Wenchuan Earthquakes under the Chinese scale is almost identical with those under the European scale.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.     

Assessment of macroseismic intensity in the Nile basin,Egypt

This work intends to assess deterministic seismic hazard and risk analysis in terms of the maximum expected intensity map of the Egyptian Nile basin sector. Seismic source zone model of Egypt was delineated based on updated compatible earthquake catalog in 2015, focal mechanisms, and the common tectonic elements. Four effective seismic source zones were identified along the Nile basin. The observed macroseismic intensity data along the basin was used to develop intensity prediction equation defined in terms of moment magnitude. Expected maximum intensity map was proven based on the developed intensity prediction equation, identified effective seismic source zones, and maximum expected magnitude for each zone along the basin. The earthquake hazard and risk analysis was discussed and analyzed in view of the maximum expected moment magnitude and the maximum expected intensity values for each effective source zone. Moderate expected magnitudes are expected to put high risk at Cairo and Aswan regions. The results of this study could be a recommendation for the planners in charge to mitigate the seismic risk at these strategic zones of Egypt.