Numerical modeling of rainstorm-induced shallow landslides in saturated and unsaturated soils

For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’ equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise, the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model. The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant for large rainfall intensity.     

降雨对滑坡稳定性影响过程分析

通过对滑坡土条的受力分析进行改进,建立起能考虑滑带内存在任意孔隙水压分布情况下的稳定性计算公式。结合Lumb入渗理论和太沙基一维固结理论得到了滑坡在降雨期间的极限稳定性计算方法,该方法能够同时考虑降雨入渗导致土体重度和滑带内孔隙水压力变化。利用上述结果,提出了某些深层滑坡触发的一种机理,并可根据常用的土质参数比较容易得到滑坡在降雨期间稳定性演化过程。通过对某滑坡分析得到,降雨导致滑体重量增加而降低滑坡稳定性小于孔隙水压增加对稳定性的影响;超孔隙水压力的存在大幅提高了剩余下滑力值。     

Incorporating hydro-mechanical coupling in an analysis of the effects of rainfall patterns on unsaturated soil slope stability

Rainfall-induced landslides can cause loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure, and the environment. Rainfall patterns affect the pore-water pressure of unsaturated soil slopes, and are related to the slopes’ stability. Four rainfall patterns were chosen to represent natural rainfall patterns for an examination of rainfall infiltration into soil slopes using numerical models incorporating coupled water infiltration and deformation in unsaturated soils. Our analysis showed that rainfall patterns play a significant role in the distribution of the pore-water pressure in soil slopes, and influence the slope stability. The pore-water pressure profile of soil slopes and the factor of safety are affected by the ratio of rainfall intensity and the coefficient of permeability. The depth and shape of the shallow sliding plane of the landslide is closely related to the rainfall pattern; moreover, the results showed a correlation between the factor of safety of the slope and the rainfall intensity. This relationship can be described by a dimensionless rainfall intensity. The nonlinear relationship can be used to estimate the slope stability resulting from rainfall infiltration when the hydro-mechanical coupling in unsaturated soil slopes is considered.     

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.     

位移-应力协同分析在新近纪软岩质滑坡监测中的应用——以陕西宝鸡市北坡滑坡为例

强降雨可诱发新近纪软岩质滑坡滑移变形。1955年至今,降雨在陕西宝鸡诱发超过十起大型滑坡灾害。2011年9月19日,宝鸡市区72 h内的降雨量达到332 mm,北坡金鼎寺、簸箕山与高家崖滑坡出现裂缝,威胁市区居民安全。为分析滑坡的变形机制与降雨触发的滑体内地下水位的波动关系,2012—2015年,开展了降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡应力与位移等物理量的实时监测,统计分析了它们的频率、活动强度及累积变化规律,提出了滑坡的位移扩展模型。研究显示:(1)地下水的活动会影响新近纪软岩质滑坡的变形,但降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡体应力与位移等物理量变化机制有差异,地下水位、孔隙水压力呈周期性变化,滑坡体的应力、位移的变化具有累积效应;(2)宝鸡市北坡滑坡运动变形具有蠕变、快速滑移两个阶段。降雨会触发的滑坡体各物理量出现加速变化,地下水位波动幅度为0.27~1m,孔隙水压力的变化幅度为10kPa,滑体浅层的水平应力变化幅度为5.6kPa;(3)在判断降雨能否诱发滑坡快速滑移过程中,既需分析滑体应力、位移变化的累积效应,又需分析新近纪软岩质滑带的摩擦破坏机制。     

Effects of degree of saturation on shallow landslides triggered by rainfall

The empirical rainfall threshold concept and the physical-based model are two commonly used approaches for the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. To investigate in detail the rainfall-triggered shallow landslides, many physical-based models coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the rainfall infiltration modeling in variably saturated soil were developed. However, in those physical-based shallow landslide models, the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength were assumed constant rather than depending on the degree of saturation. In this study, the effects of the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength as function of degree of saturation on rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are examined. Several designed scenarios and a real case scenario are used to conduct the examinations. The results show that not only the occurrence of shallow landslides but also the failure depth and the time to failure could be misassessed if the influences of degree of saturation on the unit weight and the unsaturated shear strength are neglected.     

Coupled transient saturated–unsaturated seepage and limit equilibrium analysis for slopes: influence of rapid water level changes

This study investigates the influence of the water level fluctuation on the stability of soil slopes using coupled seepage and slope stability analysis. A simulation framework was proposed and implemented seamlessly using Python code to seek insights into three factors that have not been thoroughly studied for this issue: soil unit weight variation in the unsaturated zone, unsaturated shear strength models, and velocity of water drawdown. For this purpose, the seepage analysis was carried out by discretizing a numerical seepage analysis model using a finite element analysis platform, FEniCS. The output of the seepage analysis, i.e., pore water pressure distribution, was used as input for the slope stability analysis. Limit equilibrium methods including the Bishop Simplified method and the Ordinary Method of Slices were modified to take into consideration the unsaturated shear strength, unit weight variation in the unsaturated zone, and hydrostatic pressure changes in response to the water level fluctuation of a reservoir. Both seepage and slope analysis modules were validated against commercial programs. Analysis results obtained with the validated framework clearly revealed the distinct influences of the three factors in representative silty and sandy slopes.

     

大降雨条件下气压力对边坡稳定的影响研究

对于大面积浅层风化土边坡,当下部含有浅水位或不透水基岩层时大降雨将导致下部气体被封闭。随着湿润峰的下移,气压不断增大。封闭气压力不仅降低了雨水在边坡土体的入渗率,而且对边坡的稳定有显著影响。通过分析封闭气压力的形成和相关理论,提出取 大小的气压力头来研究边坡的稳定性（Hc为一水头值,与土体孔隙尺寸分布有关; hd为土体进气值水头）。结合非饱和土的Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则和极限平衡法,将封闭气压力引入到边坡的稳定分析中,建立了考虑气压力影响下的稳定分析模型。与传统的不考虑气压力的稳定分析方法作对比,提出了气压力影响率概念。研究表明,封闭气压力显著降低了边坡的安全系数,传统的无限边坡稳定计算方法偏于危险。研究结果对无限边坡的强降雨安全预报具有较好的指导作用。     

An analytical solution for rainfall infiltration into an unsaturated infinite slope and its application to slope stability analysis

Surficial slope failures in residual soils are common in tropical and subtropical regions as a result of rainfall infiltration. This study develops an analytical solution for simulating rainfall infiltration into an infinite unsaturated soil slope. The analytical solution is based on the general partial differential equation for water flow through unsaturated soils. It can accept soil–water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function of the exponential form into account. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the assumptions of the analytical solution and demonstrate that the proposed analytical solution is acceptable for the coarse soils with low air entry values. The pore‐water pressure (pwp) distributions obtained from the analytical solution can be incorporated into a limit equilibrium method to do infinite slope stability analysis for a rain‐induced shallow slip. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the water content change on unit weight and hence on factor of safety. A series of analytical parametric analyses have been performed using the developed model. The analyses indicate that when the residual soil slope, consisting of a completely decomposed granite layer underlain by a less permeable layer, is subjected to a continuous heavy rainfall, the loss of negative pwp and the reduction in factor of safety were found to be most significant for the shallow soil layer and during the first 12 h. The antecedent and subsequent rainfall intensity, depth of a less permeable layer and slope angle all have a significant influence on the pwp response and hence the slope stability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非饱和-非稳定渗流条件下的边坡临界滑动场

受季节性降雨或水库运行的影响,岸坡外水位及坡内孔隙水压力场的变化较大,不利于岸坡的稳定性。在水位变化过程中,利用非饱和-非稳定渗流有限元计算得到孔隙水压力场,基于非饱和土的渗流和抗剪强度理论,对水位变化过程中的边坡临界滑动场法进行改进,提出可考虑水位变化与岸坡非饱和-非稳定渗流过程的边坡临界滑动场数值模拟方法。将改进后的水位变化过程中的边坡临界滑动场法分别应用于黏土、粉土岸坡在水位升降过程中的稳定性分析,研究了水位升降速率及基质吸力对岸坡稳定性的影响,并揭示了边坡在水位变化过程中的稳定性变化历程。研究表明,该方法计算结果合理、可靠,更适用于涉水边坡的稳定性计算,且岸坡稳定性变化历程受水位升降速率、基质吸力等多种因素共同影响,只有在考虑非稳定渗流的基础上同时考虑基质吸力的作用才能正确得出水位变化过程中岸坡稳定性变化规律和实质。     

适用于斜坡降雨入渗分析的修正Green-Ampt模型

降雨入渗分析是预测降雨诱发滑坡的关键因素之一。Green-Ampt模型原理简单、使用方便,在浅层滑坡的降雨入渗分析中有很大的应用潜力,但该方法主要适用于初始含水率为均匀分布的情况。基于这一不足,推导了初始含水率为非均匀分布条件下降雨入渗深度和时间的关系,并给出了基于Runge-Kutta原理的数值解法。当初始含水率为均匀分布时,提出的方法可简化为文献中已有的Green-Ampt模型。当初始含水率为非均匀分布时, Richards方程预测所得的孔隙水压力分布图中土体饱和区和未受降雨影响的非饱和区之间存在一个较窄的过渡段,由新模型计算所得的湿润锋穿过这一过渡段,且靠近饱和部区的底部。总体而言,新方法计算所得的孔隙水压力分布与Richards方程求解结果类似。     

Rainfall-induced landslides by deficit field matric suction in unsaturated soil slopes

Landslides are mainly triggered by decrease in the matric suction with deepening the wetting band by rainfall infiltrations. This paper reports rainfall-induced landslides in partially saturated soil slopes through a field study. A comprehensive analysis on Umyeonsan (Mt.) landslides in 2011 was highlighted. The incident involves the collapse of unsaturated soil slopes under extreme-rainfall event. Fundamental studies on the mechanism and the cause of landslides were carried out. A number of technical findings are of interest, including the failure mechanism of a depth of soil and effect of groundwater flow, the downward movement of wetting band and the increase of groundwater level. Based on this, an integrated analysis methodology for a rainfall-induced landslide is proposed in this paper that incorporates the field matric suction for obtaining hydraulic parameters of unsaturated soil. The field matric suction is shown to govern the rate of change in the water infiltration for the landslide analysis with respect to an antecedent rainfall. Special attention was given to a one-dimensional infiltration model to determine the wetting band depth in the absence of the field matric suction. The results indicate that landslide activities were primarily dependent on rainfall infiltration, soil properties, slope geometries, vegetation, and groundwater table positions. The proposed methodology has clearly demonstrated both shallow and deep-seated landslides and shows good agreement with the results of landslide investigations.     

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.     

降雨诱发浅层滑坡稳定性的计算模型研究

我国是一个滑坡灾害频发的国家,众多事实表明：降雨是影响边坡稳定性,导致边坡失稳的最主要和最普遍的环境因素,是浅层滑坡的触发因素。为了更好地对降雨诱发浅层滑坡进行研究,采用非饱和土VG模型与改进的Green-Ampt入渗模型对Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型进行改进,并结合无限边坡提出了一个降雨诱发浅层滑坡的简化计算模型。与以往提出的简化计算模型相比,该模型既考虑了坡面倾斜的影响,又考虑了非饱和土的特性,并可用于两种降雨形式下的边坡浅层稳定性估算,具有更广的应用范围。通过与有限元得到的结果进行比较可得：在不同降雨条件下,该计算模型得到的各项结果与数值解是接近的,安全系数计算结果是偏于安全的,因此,可将该计算模型用于降雨诱发浅层滑坡的近似估算;该计算模型公式简单,便于计算,计算效率较高。     

Centrifugal model test on a riverine landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir induced by rainfall and water level fluctuation

Frequent soil landslide events are recorded in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, making it necessary to investigate the failure mode of such riverside landslides. Geotechnical centrifugal test is considered to be the most realistic laboratory model, which can reconstruct the required geo-stress. In this study, the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorgers Reservoir area is selected for a scaled centrifugal model experiment, and a water pump system is employed to retain the rainfall condition. Using the techniques of digital photography and pore water pressure transducers, water level fluctuation is controlled, and multi-physical data are thus obtained, including the pore water pressure, earth pressure, surface displacement and deep displacement. The analysis results indicate that: Three stages were set in the test (waterflooding stage, rainfall stage and drainage stage). Seven transverse cracks with wide of 1–5 mm appeared during the model test, of which 3 cracks at the toe landslide were caused by reservoir water fluctuation, and the cracks at the middle and rear part were caused by rainfall. During rainfall process, the maximum displacement of landslide model reaches 3 cm. And the maximum deformation of the model exceeds 12 cm at the drainage stage. The failure process of the slope model can be divided into four stages: microcracks appearance and propagation stage, thrust-type failure stage, retrogressive failure stage, and holistic failure stage. When the thrust-type zone caused by rainfall was connected or even overlapped with the retrogressive failure zone caused by the drainage, the landslide would start, which displayed a typical composite failure pattern. The failure mode and deformation mechanism under the coupling actions of water level fluctuation and rainfall are revealed in the model test, which could appropriately guide for the analysis and evaluation of riverside landslides.     

Failure Mechanism of a Shallow Landslide at Tun-Sardon Road Cut Section of Penang Island,Malaysia

The occurrences of shallow landslides in residual soils of Penang hilly areas are common in rainy days. The failure mechanisms of a shallow landslide occurred at km 3.9 road in Tun-Sardon area of Penang Island have been simulated using two different methods of slope stability analysis. The results indicate that the failure was initiated locally inside the slope and then propagated further to induce total failure. The failure propagation was started from initial local failure zone and was driven by mobilized shear strength along the shear plane. The slope was marginally stable with an overall factor of safety of 1.32 before it failed to a rainfall event on September 6, 2008. It is found from back calculation that the rain infiltration raised the temporary water level and reduced the shearing strength of soil to a minimum level with increased pore water pressure to trigger the failure. This paper suggests further research on shallow landslide of Penang Island considering the direct rainfall infiltration effect in terms of groundwater pressure-head distribution inside the slope.     

Comparison of single- and dual-permeability models in simulating the unsaturated hydro-mechanical behavior in a rainfall-triggered landslide

Landslide-prone slopes in earthquake-affected areas commonly feature heterogeneity and high permeability due to the presence of cracks and fissures that were caused by ground shaking. Landslide reactivation in heterogeneous slope may be affected by preferential flow that was commonly occurred under heavy rainfall. Current hydro-mechanical models that are based on a single-permeability model consider soil as a homogeneous continuum, which, however, cannot explicitly represent the hydraulic properties of heterogeneous soil. The present study adopted a dual-permeability model, using two Darcy-Richards equations to simulate the infiltration processes in both matrix and preferential flow domains. The hydrological results were integrated with an infinite slope stability approach, attempting to investigate the hydro-mechanical behavior. A coarse-textured unstable slope in an earthquake-affected area was chosen for conducting artificial rainfall experiment, and in the experiment slope, failure was triggered several times under heavy rainfall. The simulated hydro-mechanical results of both single- and dual-permeability model were compared with the measurements, including soil moisture content, pore water pressure, and slope stability conditions. Under high-intensity rainfall, the measured soil moisture and pore water pressure at 1-m depth showed faster hydrological response than its simulations, which can be regarded as a typical evidence of preferential flow. We found the dual-permeability model substantially improved the quantification of hydro-mechanical processes. Such improvement could assist in obtaining more reliable landslide-triggering predication. In the light of the implementation of a dual-permeability model for slope stability analysis, a more flexible and robust early warning system for shallow landslides hazard in coarse-textured slopes could be provided.     

Probabilistic failure analysis of infinite slopes under random rainfall processes and spatially variable soil

Rainfall-induced landslides occur during or immediately after rainfall events in which the pore water pressure builds up, leading to shallow slope failure. Thereby, low permeability layers result in high gradients in pore water pressure. The spatial variability of the soil permeability influences the probability such low permeability layers, and hence the probability of slope failure. In this paper, we investigate the influence of the vertical variability of soil permeability on the slope reliability, accounting for the randomness of rainfall processes. We model the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil with a one-dimensional random field. The random rainfall events are characterised by their duration and intensity and are modelled through self-similar random processes. The transient infiltration process is represented by Richards equation, which is evaluated numerically. The reliability analysis of the infinite slope is based on the factor of safety concept for evaluating slope stability. To cope with the large number of random variables arising from the discretization of the random field and the rainfall process, we evaluate the slope reliability through Subset Simulation, which is an adaptive Monte Carlo method known to be especially efficient for reliability analysis of such high-dimensional problems. Numerical investigations show higher probability of slope failure with increased spatial variability of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and with more uniform rainfall patterns.     

基于TRIGRS模型的浅层滑坡稳定性分析

采用基于网格的瞬态降雨入渗(TRIGRS)模型,以滑坡灾害频发的陕南安康市东部巴山东段白河县为研究区,探讨模型适用性及不同降雨条件下边坡稳定性空间分布规律。根据中国土壤分布图并结合已有研究,选取模拟所需的水土力学参数。将模拟所得研究区稳定性分布图与实际滑坡目录对比分析进行TRIGRS模型精度评估,分别模拟连阴雨和短时间强降雨两种降雨情景,探讨研究区边坡稳定性空间分布规律,结果表明:1)TRIGRS模型在模拟预测降雨诱发型浅层滑坡时,结合受试者特征ROC曲线进行精度评估,曲线下面积为0.752,说明此模型在白河县进行滑坡模拟时具有一定的合理性与准确性,能反应该地区滑坡灾害的空间分布特征;2)连阴雨情景模拟下,极不稳定区域主要集中在北部低山地貌区,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主,随降雨历时增加向东部和南部增多,西部仓上镇、西营镇和双丰镇的极不稳定区域面积较少,能承受长时间连续性降雨。短时间强降雨对边坡稳定性的影响更为直接,极不稳定区域随降雨强度增大而增加,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主要防范区域。结合地形分析,极陡峭区域边坡稳定性最差,无法承受持续性降雨和高强度降雨,较陡峭区域更易受到降雨历时和降雨强度的影响,而平缓区域则能承受长时间及高强度的降雨;3)TRIGRS模型根据不同降雨条件预测易发生滑坡灾害的区域,为滑坡实时预报警系统提供了新的可能方法。     

强降雨作用下边(滑)坡稳定性分析及预警技术研究

以四川汉源二蛮山滑坡为例,根据现场滑坡情况勘查及室内试验确定土体参数;选择内置VBA为开发工具,开发基于ArcGIS的边（滑）坡稳定性分析插件,并据此得出研究区域危险区划评价图.研究结果表明,特殊地形条件、震后地质构造、连续强降雨以及坡体非饱和渗流等,使孔隙水压力增加和土基质吸力迅速减少,导致坡体滑移面处土的抗剪强度降低而发生滑坡;基于ArcGIS软件得出研究区域危险区划评价图,与滑坡的实际情况具有较高吻合度.研究成果为深入分析强降雨对边（滑）坡影响及边（滑）坡预警提供了新的途径.