川西则木河断裂带强震复发周期的初步研究

本文从地震活动性和断层活动性两方面初步研究了川西则木河断裂带上地震的复发周期。通过古地震地貌现象的研究,发现则木河断裂北段西昌一带自晚更新世以来多次发生强震,其中全新世时期至少有4次。并得出晚更新世时期,强震在原地重复的周期为2000年,全新世时期为1800年,则木河断裂带滑动速率的研究表明,晚更新世时期断层滑动速率为4.5mm/a,全新世时期为4.9mm/a,以此估计则木河断裂带上晚更新世时期,强震重复的平均周期为965—1380年,全新世时期为885—1275年。     

后差分GPS测量则木河断裂地震微地貌特征

地震微地貌是研究古地震的重要证据。 发生在则木河断裂带上的1850年地震的地表破裂带在人类活动较少的地区得以保存完好。 研究区内地形起伏大, 断塞塘、 断层陡坎、 鼓包等微地震地貌特征明显, 在三维视图内可直观反映测量区内的这些地貌特征。 利用后差分GPS方法测量断裂活动形成的地震微地貌, 水平测量精度可达0.5 m, DEM精度可到一个像元1 m, 是定量化研究地震微地貌的一种新方法。 测量结果表明, 大箐梁子顶部七条干沟对应多次古地震事件; 大箐梁子顶部鼓包被断裂断错, 断塞塘沉积区向南迁移, 鼓包最新断错约4 m, 大箐村南山坡形成50 cm高断层陡坎。 说明大箐梁子一带地震活动性较强, 且以挤压构造为主。     

则木河断裂带晚第四纪活动特征及古地震研究

本文着重讨论了则木河断裂带晚第四纪以来的活动特征、古地震事件及大地震重复间隔等问题。结果表明，晚更新世以来则木河断裂主要以左旋水平走滑活动为主，其平均滑动速率为７毫米／年。据对所揭露的１０多条探槽资料对比分析结果认为，最早的一次古地震事件可能是发生在晚更新世末期，从这一时期至今全断裂带共发生过八次７级以上的古地震事件。全新世中期以后，大地震的重复间隔时间为９００年—１２００年。     

利用地震走时层析成像方法确定西昌地区断裂带深部几何形态

断裂深部产状和空间几何关系是研究地壳运动变形、动力作用及其地表响应的基础,也是模拟发震断裂与强震关系的基础。为了研究川西南地区强震活动与安宁河、则木河和金河断裂的关系,对盐源-西昌-雷波高分辨地震折射剖面初至Pg波走时和断层面反射波走时进行模拟,获得了川滇活动地块东边界带安宁河、则木河和金河断裂的深部形态。结果表明:在上地壳内,安宁河断裂和则木河断裂东倾32°～35°,其速度结构为舌状低速带,二者规模较大,延伸到了基底。金河断裂东倾约30°,向下延伸至少5km。     

则木河断裂全新世以来的新活动与地震

本文着重研究了则木河断裂的发育特征以及全新世以来的活动历史。根据作者在该断裂带首次发现的地震裂缝以及它们的力学性质和组合型式,提出则木河断裂系属一条南北向拉张性质的左旋走滑型地震断裂。强震主要发生在全新世以来断裂的最新和最强烈的活动段上。断裂活动方式,北段是以粘滑破裂运动为主;南段则以蠕滑运动为主。     

则木河断裂带大箐梁子附近古地震组合探槽研究

古地震事件定年具不确定性,为了增加地震事件定年的可信度,文中通过断层活动方式、沉积环境和地震微地貌的综合分析来研究则木河断裂带上的古地震事件。在大箐梁子附近开挖组合探槽,揭露了3次古地震事件,分别距今约160a、3100a和5500～8900a,复发间隔为3000a左右;讨论了与走滑断层型地震相关的沉积过程,揭示了走滑断层在山坡部位形成鼓包和反向陡坎情况下的沉积模式     

山西大同盆地口泉断裂全新世古地震活动

野外调查表明 ,口泉断裂断错了断面附近的 3级地貌面 ,包括大同盆地西侧全新世形成的洪积扇后缘及位于洪积扇冲沟内的Ⅰ ,Ⅱ级阶地。其中冲沟内Ⅱ级阶地为剥蚀阶地 ,Ⅰ级阶地为堆积阶地 ,Ⅰ级阶地面的地层时代距今 2 52ka。在该断裂的悟道及上黄庄 2个地点开挖的大探槽表明 ,在距今 1 2 3万年以来该断裂曾发生 4次古地震事件 ,其中 3次分别发生在接近距今 2 52 ,5 6 8,13 73ka。另一次古地震事件发生在距今 6 76～ 10 82ka。这些数据有可能反映了口泉断裂具备准周期的强震活动。这 4次古地震事件的平均间隔约为 3 74ka ,最新一次古地震与上一次事件的时间间隔约为 3 16ka。 2个大探槽各次事件的平均最小同震垂直位移为 1 8m。这些资料对重新评价口泉断裂未来的地震潜势具有重要意义     

滇西南地区地震活动特征分析

选取有地震记载以来的M_S≥5地震与1965年以来的小震目录,分析滇西南地区地震的时、空、强分布特征及强震前中小震活动,开展分段、不同震级地震活动特征研究,发现:滇西南地区5级地震集中分布在主要深大断裂带上,时间分布呈现丛集特征,两次地震发生时间间隔平均为558天(约1.5年),地震平静时间一般持续约30个月;M_S≥6强地震主要集中发生在北西向断裂与北东向断裂交汇部位附近,在时间尺度上存在明显的平静和活跃交替特征,每个平静期和活跃期平均持续约15年,且大部分强震前存在清楚的预释放现象和中小地震加速定向迁移特征。     

川西地区安宁河断层古地震行为及其与则木河断层的比较

安宁河断层与则木河断层是青藏高原东南川滇地块东边界断裂带的重要组成部分,晚第四纪以来变形样式主要以左旋走滑运动为主。安宁河断层走向近SN向,以冕宁为界分为南北两段,北段古地震复发周期500~700a,全新世以来左旋平均位移速率约4mm/a。南段的古地震研究程度较低,通过在月华一带开挖探槽及大量14C测年限定其大地震平均复发间隔为600~800a。则木河断层北接安宁河断层,全新世以来平均左旋位移速率为2.4~3.6mm/a,大地震复发周期约2 300a。对比安宁河断层与则木河断层的古地震行为,发现安宁河断层大地震复发间隔相对较短,平均左旋位移速率稍大,存在着古地震行为的不协调性。安宁河断层与则木河断层走向不一致、螺髻山的快速隆升以及安宁河断层南侧SN向展布的走滑断层系统等可能是造成安宁河-则木河断层古地震行为差异的原因。     

大凉山次级块体内强震发生的构造特征与2014年鲁甸6.5级地震对周边断层的影响

2014年8月3日,在云南鲁甸发生MS6.5地震.该地震位于巴颜喀拉块体、川滇块体与华南块体三者之间的以挤压和左旋走滑为主要活动特征的大凉山次级块体内部.该次级块体吸收了来自川滇块体和巴颜喀拉块体的挤压作用,主要以各边界断裂带的挤压作用和内部大凉山断裂带、峨边断裂带等NNW向的左旋走滑次级断裂为主要特征;在历史上大凉山次级块体边界上以7级以上强震活动为主要特征,而在次级块体内部则以5级地震频繁活动为主.2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震发生在逆冲走滑断裂带内部的NNW向左旋走滑断裂上,该地震主要受到了发生在小江断裂带上的1733年M73/4和则木河断裂带上的1850年M71/2强震的影响,这两次地震对2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震有促进作用,而2014年鲁甸6.5级地震促进了2014年10月1日越西5.0级地震的发生,此外鲁甸地震对大凉山断裂带北段、峨边断裂带、昭通-鲁甸断裂带东段以及则木河断裂带南段有一定的库仑应力增强作用.     

大凉山断裂带北段石棉断裂的古地震

大凉山断裂带是大型走滑断裂鲜水河-小江断裂系的重要组成部分,其活动性是认识和探讨青藏高原东南缘现今地震活动和构造变形机制的重要基础资料。相较于中段和南段,关于大凉山断裂带北段活动性的相关研究成果,尤其是古地震资料非常缺乏。文中基于野外地质地貌调查,在石棉断裂联合村处开挖了一组(2个)探槽,揭露出断裂全新世活动的直接证据。通过古地震分析和炭样加速器质谱仪(AMS)测年,共获得了4次古地震事件:事件E1:20925—16850BC;事件E2:15265—1785BC;事件E3:360—1475AD;事件E4:1655—1815AD。其中包括全新世以来的3次事件,最新2次事件的复发间隔骤然缩短,反映断裂活动可能正在加剧。     

Paleoseismicity and Segmentation Along the Active Fault at the Northern Boundary of Huailai-Zhuolu Basin,Hebei Province

The northern boundary fault of Huailai-Zhuolu basin,Hebei Province,has a total length of 58 km and a general strike of NE.The geometry and feature of activity of the 5 segments of the fault greatly differ from each other.17 paleoseismic events have been recognized within 11 trenches excavated along the different segments of the fault.It is found that each segment is characterized by its distinct recurrence of paleoearthquakes.The recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for each segment are 3500-7000 a for the shortest and 17,000-20,500 a for the longest.However,the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes for whole fault ranges between 750-8500 a.The boundary of the segments can be recognized as the junction,gap,bending,jog and salient of the fault.The length of the segment ranges between 7.5-14 km.     

Detailed paleoseismic history of the Hinagu fault zone revealed by the high-density radiocarbon dating and trenching survey across a surface rupture of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake,Kyushu, Japan

The NE-trending Hinagu fault zone, length 81 km, is one of the major active faults in Kyushu, Japan. From north to south, it is divided into three segments based on geomorphic features and paleoseismic behavior: the Takano-Shirahata, Hinagu, and Yatsushiro Sea segments. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake produced a 6-km-long surface rupture with a dextral strike-slip displacement on the northern part of the Takano-Shirahata segment. Surface rupture, a faint east-side-up flexure with a vertical offset of less than 8 cm, was observed near the middle of the Takano-Shirahata segment. To examine past surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Takano-Shirahata segment, including rupture frequency and timing, we conducted a paleoseismic study with boring and trenching at Yamaide. A trench across the surface rupture exposed multiple fault strands associated with multiple surface-rupturing events that deformed several strata of fine-grained sediments. By structural and stratigraphic interpretation, high-density radiocarbon dating and tephra analysis, and Bayesian modeling, we constrained the timing of seven events, Events 1–7, to 0.84–1.25, 1.31–7.06, 9.99–11.0, 10.8–12.1, 12.0–13.0, 14.2–15.1, and before 14.8 kcal BP. Slip during Events 1–6 was obviously larger than the 2016 slip. The estimated average recurrence interval was about 2596–2860 years, but the interval between Events 2 and 3 was much longer than other intervals. Moreover, the vertical throw associated with Event 2 was larger than that of other events. This implies that the Takano-Shirahata segment has a period with rare larger earthquakes and a period with frequent smaller earthquakes. Some events might have produced ruptures on both the Takano-Shirahata and the northern part of the Hinagu segments simultaneously or in a short time. The variety of recurrence intervals suggests that the seismic activity has been affected by one or both activities of the Futagawa fault zone and the Hinagu segment.     

安宁河断裂带北段的最新地面活断层与地震潜在能力研究

从最新地面活断层的不连续性,断层滑动速率以及古地震研究的角度讨论安宁河断裂带北段的地震潜在能力,认为不连续的活断层可能成为各自独立的地震破裂单元,从而决定了地震的潜在能力,其中,野鸡洞破裂段的潜在地震能力最强,可达7级。上次地震至今的平静时间已接近古地震的平均重现间隔,因而具有高度的地震危险性     

DETERMINATION OF SLIP RATE ON THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE ANNINGHE FAULT

The Anninghe Fault has been suggested as an important segment of the fault system along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block in the southeastern region of the Tibetan plateau. Reliable determination of the Late Quaternary slip rate on the Anninghe Fault is very helpful and significant for revealing deformation mechanism and kinematic characteristics of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block, which further helps us understand fault activity and seismic potential of the region. However, previous studies were focused mainly on the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault, while slip rate on its southern segment has been less studied. Therefore, in this paper, we chose two sites at Dashuigou and Maoheshan on the southern segment of the Anninghe Fault, and used high-resolution images of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)photogrammetry technology, detailed field survey, multiple paleoseismic trenching and radiocarbon dating methods to constrain slip rate on the southern fault segment of the Anninghe Fault. Specifically, we suggest that the slip rate at the Dashuigouo site is narrowly constrained to be~4.4mm/a since about 3^￣￣300a^￣￣BP based on a linear regression calculation method, and speculate that a slip rate of 2.6~5.2mm/a at the Maoheshan site would be highly possible, although we poorly constrained the whole deformation amount of the two branch faults at the Maoheshan site from multiple paleoseismic trenching. The data at the two sites on the southern segment show a consistent slip rate compared with that of the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault. Moreover, considering a similar paleoseismic recurrence interval on the two segments of the Anninghe Fault from previous studies, we further suggest that the fault activity and deformation pattern on the two segments of the Annignhe Fault appears to be well consistent, which is also in agreement with the regional tectonic deformation.     

由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性

利用区域台网地震资料, 分析了川西安宁河-则木河断裂带不同段落的现今活动习性，进而鉴别潜在大地震危险的断裂段. 文中由异常低b值的分布圈绘出凹凸体，发展和应用了由多个地震活动参数值的组合判定断裂分段活动习性的方法，尝试了利用凹凸体段的震级频度关系参数估计特征地震的平均复发间隔. 结果表明，该研究断裂带存在5个不同现今活动习性的段落. 其中，安宁河断裂的冕宁-西昌段属于高应力下的闭锁段，其核心部分为一较大尺度的凹凸体；则木河断裂的西昌-普格段则表现为低应力下的微弱活动状态. 重新定位的震源深度分布，显示出上述闭锁段和微弱活动段的断层面轮廓. 冕宁-西昌段是未来大地震的潜在危险段. 该段从最晚的1952年6.7级地震起算，至未来特征地震的平均复发间隔估值为55～67年, 未来地震的震级估值为7.0～7.5. 本研究也初步表明，同-断裂段的活动习性可随时间动态演变.      

Paleoseismic activity on Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault,inner Mongolia

Geomorphic study on Wjiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault,Inner Mongolia is made.Throuth analysis of the available data in combination with the results of predecessors‘studies it can be obtained that average vertical displacement rate is 0.48-0.75mm/a along the Wujiahe segment since the late Pleistocene(14.450-22.340ka BP)and 0.56-0.88mm/s since the early-middle Holocene(5.570-8.830ka BP).Analyzing paleoseismic phenomena revealed in the excavated 5trenches in combination with the results of predecessors‘studies of paleoearthquakes on the fault,we determine five paleoseismic events on the Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault since 27.0ka BP and the recurrence interval to be about 4.300-4.400ka,A cluster of paleoearthquakes occurred probably during 8.000-9.000ka BP and two paleoeismic events in 10.000-20.000ka BP may be missed.A comparison between height of fault scarps and sum of displacement caused by paleoseismic events revealed in trenches,and recurrence interval of paleoseismic events obtained from average displacement rate along the fault and the disloca-tion by one event suggest that three paleoseismic events are absent in Alagaitu trench.Two paleoseismic events may be absent on the whole active fault segment.     

SIMULATION OF SEISMIC RISK IN THE DALIANGSHAN SUB-BLOCK AND ADJACENT AREAS USING THE NONLINEAR FRICTION FEM METHOD

Most earthquakes result from fault activity under heterogeneous loading and complex physical properties, also affected by fault structure and interaction between faults. Such a complicated mechanism makes often failures of the "seismic gap" theory in the effort of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction. This study attempts to address this issue using the finite element method(FEM).The friction behavior of faults can be used to simulate the non-uniformity of rupture processes of the seismogenic structure. So we use the FEM containing non-linear friction to simulate fault ruptures in the Daliangshan sub-block and adjacent areas, and compare the results with time-space evolution of historical M_S ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1840 in this region. In the simulation, the sequence of large-batch fault contact nodes change from "stick state" to "slip state" in short time, which mimics the sudden fault slip and the occurrence of major earthquakes. The results show that the fault breaking lengths from simulation are largely consistent with the magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the study area, such as the 1850 Puge-Xichang M_S7.5, and 1887 Shiping M_S7.0 earthquakes. The simulation also shows the development of seismic gaps and "gap breaks" by major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault, such as 1955 Kangding M_S7.5 earthquake. Especially, the results illustrated the very long time of the seismogenic process of the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, and the corresponding sudden big rupture along the Longmenshan Fault, which is very similar to the observed surface rupture and very long incubation time and sudden co-seismic process. Then, this simulation is further applied to long-term earthquake prediction for the study area by calculation on a much longer time. The simulation results suggest that the Xiaojiang fault and the Zemuhe fault have relatively higher seismic risk, while moderate-sized earthquakes might occur on the Daliangshan fault and the Aninghe fault, and major earthquakes might rupture the northern segment of the Xianshuihe fault in a much longer time.     

THE HOLOCENE SEISMIC EVIDENCE ON SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE RED RIVER FAULT ZONE

Nine earthquakes with M≥6 have stricken the northern segment of the Red River fault zone since the historical records, including the 1652 Midu M7 earthquake and the 1925 Dali M7 earthquake. However, there have been no earthquake records of M≥6 on the middle and southern segments of the Red River Fault, since 886 AD. Is the Red River fault zone, as a boundary fault, a fault zone where there will be not big earthquake in the future or a seismogenic structure for large earthquake with long recurrence intervals?This problem puzzles the geologists for a long time. Through indoor careful interpretation of high resolution remote sensing images, and in combination with detailed field geological and geomorphic survey, we found a series of fault troughs along the section of Gasha-Yaojie on the southern segment of the Red River fault zone, the length of the Gasha-Yaojie section is over ten kilometers. At the same time, paleoseismic information and radiocarbon dating result analysis on the multiple trenches show that there exists geological evidence of seismic activity during the Holocene in the southern segment of the Red River fault zone.